Puerto Rico: 51st state

Puerto rico votes to become the 51st state in 1997

What would be the ramifications in elections etc?
 
Puerto rico votes to become the 51st state in 1997

What would be the ramifications in elections etc?

Assuming statehood is approved by the GOP congress:

Pending redistricting, Puerto Rico is temporarily awarded 1 House rep, and the House temporarily has 436 seats.

US Senate now has 102 seats. Puerto Rico's two Senate seats are both likely democratic.

In the 2000 election, there are a total of 541 possible electoral votes.

Puerto Rico's 3 electoral votes go to Gore, so assuming Gore wins all the states he won in OTL, he loses the election by a single electoral vote, 271-270.

Dems start the 107th Congress in 2001 with a 52-50 seat advantage in the Senate (vs. 50-50 in OTL).

In 2003, following the 2000 Census and redistricting, the House reverts to 435 seats, with Puerto Rico now having 4 House seats. So in the 2004 election, there are a total of 540 electoral votes.
 
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Which stsates lose a seat? Most likely one of the Upper Midwest or Great Lakes states. If in the area surrounding the GLs then I suspect it it won't change the make-up of the House much
 
Democrats would have a better advantage in close elections since Puerto Rico would be solidly Democratic. Bush might not get elected in 2000.
 
Hmm, the PNP would benefit from that, but I think the PPD and PIP might adapt to the new situation.
 
Democrats would have a better advantage in close elections since Puerto Rico would be solidly Democratic. Bush might not get elected in 2000.

I was under the impression that every new state gets 1 new House seat (and hence, 3 electoral votes) until after the next census and reapportionment. Which wouldn't be enough to change the outcome of the 2000 election.

That might be wrong tho, since Texas became a state in 1845, and had 4 electoral votes in the 1848 election.

If in the 2000 election, Puerto Rico already has its full 4 or 5 House seats (and hence 6 or 7 electoral votes), then assuming Bush and Gore win the same states they won in OTL, Puerto Rico gives Gore the electoral college victory, 273-271 or 274-271.
 
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I was under the impression that every new state gets 1 new House seat (and hence, 3 electoral votes) until after the next census and reapportionment. Which wouldn't be enough to change the outcome of the 2000 election.

That might be wrong tho, since Texas became a state in 1845, and had 4 electoral votes in the 1848 election.

If in the 2000 election, Puerto Rico already has its full 4 or 5 House seats (and hence 6 or 7 electoral votes), then assuming Bush and Gore win the same states they won in OTL, Puerto Rico gives Gore the electoral college victory, 273-271 or 274-271.

Congress would probably follow the Alaska/Hawaii precident. Redistricting based on the 2000 census takes affect beginning w/the 2002 election cycle. Your initial calculations above are correct.
 
I think your math for 2004 is mistaken. Assuming 436 House seats, 102 Senate seats and 3 Electoral votes for DC, that yields 541 total Electoral votes, requiring 271 for an electoral majority.
 
I think your math for 2004 is mistaken. Assuming 436 House seats, 102 Senate seats and 3 Electoral votes for DC, that yields 541 total Electoral votes, requiring 271 for an electoral majority.

Thanks, I forgot to take into account the post-redistricting reversion to 435 house seats.

We both got that one wrong tho. Since there would be 435 House seats in 2004, the electoral vote total would actually be 540 not 541:

2000
436 + 102 + 3 =541

2004
435 + 102 + 3 =540
 
Democrats would have a better advantage in close elections since Puerto Rico would be solidly Democratic. Bush might not get elected in 2000.

On the other hand, a West-Virginia type situation is also possible, where Democrats dominate on the state level, but it could be a toss up, with a rather conservative population, on the Presidential stage.
 
On the other hand, a West-Virginia type situation is also possible, where Democrats dominate on the state level, but it could be a toss up, with a rather conservative population, on the Presidential stage.

Actually I think it would be the reverse like California since in Presidential election Puerto-Ricans (according to the World Almanac) vote mostly Democrat.
 
About the House of Representatives, the amount of Representatives is fixed at 435 by Public Law 62-5. For example when Alaska and Hawaii was admitted the number did go up to 437, but went back to 435 after 1963.
 
The REAL Irony, Would be in The Lead up to The Election ...

Assuming that The State of Puerto Rico, Would Have a More Important Primary than The Commonwealth of Puerto Rico:

Both John McCain, The Navy Man, And Bill Bradley, The Man of The People; Would have a Decided Advantage in their Respective Primaries ...

Either One would Beat their Party's OTL Competition, Against Each Other could get Ugly, Very Ugly!
 
On the other hand, a West-Virginia type situation is also possible, where Democrats dominate on the state level, but it could be a toss up, with a rather conservative population, on the Presidential stage.

I'd have to agree with this. After all, Puerto Rico's governor is a registered Republican.
 
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