Prussian Spain, consequences for the Spanish-American War?

The cause of the Franco-Prussian War was ostensibly a succession crisis in Spain, the Germans wanted a Hohenzollern (Prussian) prince to take the throne of Spain whereas the French were greatly opposed. Bismark used this minor succession dispute to bait Napoleon III into declaring war on Prussia, painting France as the aggressor and giving him the prefect pretext to unite the still somewhat aloof German states into an Empire. While the French and Germans warred an Italian Duke, Amedeo, was invited to take the Spanish throne, by the time the war was over German unification was complete and the Prussian claim to the Spanish throne was eventually dropped, but what if it hadn't been dropped? Amadeo didn't particularly care for the Spanish crown and two years later he abdicated after making an appearance before the Cortes (Spanish Parliament), proclaiming the Spanish people “ungovernable”. If the Germans decided to press their claims Leopold, Prince of Hohenzollern would have likely become King of Spain. Now assuming Leopold doesn't do something foolhardy to lose the crown (which in Spain means blinking the wrong way, but lets just assume he hangs in there) 1898 rolls around and the USS Maine blows up in Spanish Cuba, does the US Congress still use this as an excuse to declare war on Spain, and if they do does the German Empire declare war on the US to back their relatives in Spain?

Tl;dr:
Spain gets a German king, the US starts off the Spanish–American War as per OTL, Germany declares war on the US, what happens next?
 

mowque

Banned
Butterflies remove any Spanish-American War. However, would a Prussian King of Spain really alter Spanish foreign policy? I would think that by this time, such monarchical ties are quite weak?
 
That the spanish king woud be a German and Hohenzollern, wouldn´t mean, that Spain and Germany would be instant allies. After all, the king of Romania was a Hohenzollern too, but Romania still fought against Germany in WW I. Still a german-american War was a possibilitie in 1898 and Willy the Stupid may be decide, that the "Honor" of his Hous needed to be rstored. The war would propably start with a clash between Admirals Dewey fleet and the german East Asia squadron in Manila Bay. Because the Americans were outnumbered and short on ammunition, they would propably lose. After that I don´t think there would be much fighting. Neither the american nor the german Navy were very big at this time, also the Germany had a slight edge by modern battleships. So I think the Germans would send their fleet to the Caribean sea, occupy Puerto Rico and act from there as a fleet-in-being, meanwhile the Americans occupy Cuba. Because no side is strong enough for a decesive battle, they would try to avoid it. After some time a peace conference would be called. Cuba would become "independent" under american protectorat, Germany would "buy" Puerto Rico and the Carolines (including Guam) from Spain and the Fillipines would stay nominal spanish (if Spain could reestablish controll is a other question). Practicly it would be some kind of german victory, but the seed for other american-german wars would be laid.
 
That the spanish king woud be a German and Hohenzollern, wouldn´t mean, that Spain and Germany would be instant allies. After all, the king of Romania was a Hohenzollern too, but Romania still fought against Germany in WW I. Still a german-american War was a possibilitie in 1898 and Willy the Stupid may be decide, that the "Honor" of his Hous needed to be rstored. The war would propably start with a clash between Admirals Dewey fleet and the german East Asia squadron in Manila Bay. Because the Americans were outnumbered and short on ammunition, they would propably lose. After that I don´t think there would be much fighting. Neither the american nor the german Navy were very big at this time, also the Germany had a slight edge by modern battleships. So I think the Germans would send their fleet to the Caribean sea, occupy Puerto Rico and act from there as a fleet-in-being, meanwhile the Americans occupy Cuba. Because no side is strong enough for a decesive battle, they would try to avoid it. After some time a peace conference would be called. Cuba would become "independent" under american protectorat, Germany would "buy" Puerto Rico and the Carolines (including Guam) from Spain and the Fillipines would stay nominal spanish (if Spain could reestablish controll is a other question). Practicly it would be some kind of german victory, but the seed for other american-german wars would be laid.


Why wouldn't the Germans send an infantry force to Cuba before it falls in this scenario ?
 
Why wouldn't the Germans send an infantry force to Cuba before it falls in this scenario ?

Because this would could lead to the clash between both battlefleets i assume both sides would try to avoid. Besides the german Army wouldn´t very interested to lose good men in an adventure of the german Navy.
 

katchen

Banned
A Spain with a Hohenzollern monarch on the throne that lasted until 1898 might well be a Spain with close enough ties with Germany to industrialize alongside Germany, possibly within a customs union with Germany. Things like building double tracked railroads all over Spain--and Cuba and the Philippines. And agricultural improvements. And Germans able to buy and operate plantations in Cuba and the Philippines --and latifundia in the South of Spain (yes, Spain had them and still does).

Which means that it would be a very different and much more modern and formidable Spain that the US would be thinking about going to war with in 1898 ITTL. In fact Cuba might not have an independence movement at all. Especially if Spain was industrial and Cubans, Puerto Ricans and even Filipinos were traveling to Spain for work and study.
 
Any inclusion of Germany in a Spanish/US war about guarantee earlier US participation against Germany in a European war. It also gives Britain more incentive to look after the German naval construction program. We might see the Great War kicking off in 1905-1913 due to greater British concern.
 
Because this would could lead to the clash between both battlefleets i assume both sides would try to avoid. Besides the german Army wouldn´t very interested to lose good men in an adventure of the german Navy.


Last time I checked, the army receives it's orders from the political leadership. If said leadership (i.e. the Kaiser) wanted boots on the ground in Cuba, they would have complied.
 
Do the Germans even have the capability to intervene navally in Cuba and the Philippines? It would be a huge risk to send the German navy to Cuba when American facilities are so close and German facilities so far. It is even worse to send them to the Pacific. The Philippines isn't close to the US either, but it's still closer than Germany is.

Threatening a German-American War over an issue of zero importance to Germany is incredibly dumb. It risks creating an alliance between the US, UK, and France against Germany.
 
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