Prussian California

Never heard of this. Link?
It's a JSTOR article but you'll get the abstract

https://www.jstor.org/stable/41170053

And this quote

In the course of the nineteenth century many attempts had been undertaken to establish "New Germanies" in North America. None were successful. Perhaps the most curious events are those which concerned California in the mid-century. Mexico offerred the territory of California in 1843 to Prussia for six million dollars. Representatives of the Prussian government in Washington and London were negotiating the matter when suddenly and unexpectedly Prussia withdrew from the negotiations. One may only speculate as to what a German nation on the North American continent under Prussian protection might have meat for future political developments."
- Early German Influence in the Development of California, Don Heinrich Tolzmann
 
Well, Prussia could just lease the whole inland area to the Mormons for a set period
I was thinking that it might butterfly away the Mormons even attempting to settle in the territory, which was occupied by the US at the time that they started looking into moving there. If they do approach the Prussians for land, I can see some pretty solid reasons why the Prussians might not be prepared to offer them any. For a start, it's one thing to loosen the bonds of autocracy for German settlers and another thing to grant a group of Anglos self-government within a newly-acquired territory. Secondly, these guys are really weird religious cultists, at least to the fairly straight-laced Protestant Prussians. Thirdly, the US will have fewer reservations about tangling with an independent Deseret than with Prussia (nominally a Great Power), so it weakens Mexico's buffer and acts as a stepping stone to a future attack on Prussian California.

I was going to say that it complicates the cordon sanitaire against inward migrants, but the California Trail route actually suggests that the best place to block them would be Nevada rather than Utah. It's not unfeasibly complex either: a few stockades across the key inward routes, some cavalry patrolling the gaps, and a simple German language test for those apprehended. Those who fail would presumably be encouraged to retrace their steps the relatively short distance to Coldwater Hill, from where they can try their luck in Oregon instead.

Of course, additional settlers in Oregon are going to put pressure on Britain for a border further north. The US won't be able to use San Francisco as a naval base, and the Colombia River is too shallow to support warships. That means that if the US wants a naval base on the west coast, their only real option is Puget Sound - so even more pressure on Britain to cede territory there.
 
Hmmmm, as part of the deal with Mexico for California the Prussians send advisors to train up the Mexican Army Officer Corps.

Things go worse for America when war breaks out

Peace treaty includes acknowledgement of New Prussia

Later to get revenge America funds rebels during the New Prussia Revolution
 

Skallagrim

Banned
I was thinking that it might butterfly away the Mormons even attempting to settle in the territory, which was occupied by the US at the time that they started looking into moving there. If they do approach the Prussians for land, I can see some pretty solid reasons why the Prussians might not be prepared to offer them any. For a start, it's one thing to loosen the bonds of autocracy for German settlers and another thing to grant a group of Anglos self-government within a newly-acquired territory. Secondly, these guys are really weird religious cultists, at least to the fairly straight-laced Protestant Prussians. Thirdly, the US will have fewer reservations about tangling with an independent Deseret than with Prussia (nominally a Great Power), so it weakens Mexico's buffer and acts as a stepping stone to a future attack on Prussian California.

Solid reasoning. I think you're right.


I was going to say that it complicates the cordon sanitaire against inward migrants, but the California Trail route actually suggests that the best place to block them would be Nevada rather than Utah. It's not unfeasibly complex either: a few stockades across the key inward routes, some cavalry patrolling the gaps, and a simple German language test for those apprehended. Those who fail would presumably be encouraged to retrace their steps the relatively short distance to Coldwater Hill, from where they can try their luck in Oregon instead.

Of course, additional settlers in Oregon are going to put pressure on Britain for a border further north. The US won't be able to use San Francisco as a naval base, and the Colombia River is too shallow to support warships. That means that if the US wants a naval base on the west coast, their only real option is Puget Sound - so even more pressure on Britain to cede territory there.

This may well make for an interesting spin-off effect, with Mormons heading to Oregon and all.


Another thing that I'm thinking about: the eventual culture and language of the Prussian colony. It would be very interesting if it produced a linguistic variant on German, in the way South Africa produced Afrikaans from Dutch. Not sure how likely that would be, but I think it's a really cool notion to play around with.


Incidentally, I've given some more thought to the map I suggested earlier. I stuck purely to Upper California's boundaries for the Prussian colony there, but if we assume that some kind of deal with Texas could be an option, too, then that doesn't have to be a given, really. The final land deal will automatically include non-Californian then anyway, so the Prussian colony could get a simpler border, as could Texas. Something like this:

prussifornia.png


...would Prussia be willing to pay the suggested six million for that? Would Texas be paying for the land? I assume so, but I'm not sure how much. In any event, Mexico is going to be left with more land than it retained in OTL, and while the USA paid 15 million for the Mexican Cession and Mexico will certainly not get 15 million in this TL, it doesn't have to fight a war against the USA, either. This is all pretty awesome for Mexico, I'd say.
 
I was thinking that it might butterfly away the Mormons even attempting to settle in the territory, which was occupied by the US at the time that they started looking into moving there. .


Actually Brigham Young could not have known that the US would acquire it, though he will have been aware of the possibility. There was quite a bit of opposition to acquiring Mexican territory, which might have been even greater had California not been a possible acquisition. Did anyone particularly want New Mexico etc except as a pathway to California?

And a Prussian California raises other issues. If the boundaries are as shown on that map, then virtually all territory acquired from Mexico would be below the Missouri Compromise line, and be widely seen as "slave territory". So Northern opposition, by no means lacking anyway, would probably have been strengthened. Could this have tipped the 1844 election to Clay?
 

Skallagrim

Banned
Actually Brigham Young could not have known that the US would acquire it, though he will have been aware of the possibility. There was quite a bit of opposition to acquiring Mexican territory, which might have been even greater had California not been a possible acquisition. Did anyone particularly want New Mexico etc except as a pathway to California?

There were of course people interested in expansionism almost for its own sake. One gets the impression that they were in the business of drawing lines on maps, hardly aware of climate and such factors.

Regarding Brigham Young, reading up on it, I learn that he probably wanted the US to annex Deseret. It's not that the US was going to do it for certain, but that the Mormons would invite annexation. If the Prussians are opposed to that, the Mormons may well end up elsewhere.


And a Prussian California raises other issues. If the boundaries are as shown on that map, then virtually all territory acquired from Mexico would be below the Missouri Compromise line, and be widely seen as "slave territory". So Northern opposition, by no means lacking anyway, would probably have been strengthened. Could this have tipped the 1844 election to Clay?

Note that my map is a speculative indication, based purely on the declared wishes and needs of both Prussia and Mexico, and then applying those to the hypothetical colony. I rather suspect it would end up looking something like that, but there are no certainties.

A lack of opportunity for south-western expansion would probably have changed the USA's politics, but in what direction. On the one hand, a successful Prussian-Mexican-Texan deal ends US ambitions for annexing Texas, galvanising Clay. On the other hand, more people (Mormons) heading to Oregon, as well as that being the only place left where expansion is viable, lends credibilty to Polk's claims that annexing as much of Oregon as possible is vital. It must be taken into consideration as well that the Prussian colonsation would formally be initiated before the '44 election. So Texas isn't even an issue. It's all about Oregon, now. Feasibly, Polk could paint anyone opposed to aggressive policies regarding Oregon as weak and detrimantal to US interests on the Pacific coast.

ETA: It occurs to me that Polk might be foolhardy enough to agitate for Texas annexation anyway, regardless of Prussian and Mexican opposition and Texan treaty obligations prohibiting it. Combined with his aggressive stance on Oregon, the prospect of potential war with Britain, Prussia, Mexico and involvement in what may well become a civil war in Texas (republicans versus annexationists) would probably cost him the election. His victory was narrow in OTL, after all.
 
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...The US won't be able to use San Francisco as a naval base, and the Colombia River is too shallow to support warships. That means that if the US wants a naval base on the west coast, their only real option is Puget Sound - so even more pressure on Britain to cede territory there.

Under these circumstances, I agree that the pressure is on to get as much as possible from Britain, but of course OTL borders give us quite enough of Puget Sound for naval bases--admittedly in a war with Britain against us they'd have to fight their way out of the Sound! The pressure would be on for more then, for obtaining Vancouver Island for instance, unblocking the Sound exit.

OTL it was a bit brilliant of Polk to defuse the jingoism against Britain and divert it against Mexico. Here though there is a third alternative, which is to jingo against Prussia instead. With only a few years between purchase and an American war, I'm not sure I would not side with the people in the thread who have the Americans conquering California from Prussia. Just how fast could the Prussians set up adequate shore defenses, and if they do--what stops American naval vessels from finding an alternate port, landing troops and moving overland from theire>

Say they fortify the Golden Gate. That still leaves Monterey, perhaps Drakes Bay or Tomales Bay (depending on draft), Bodega Bay and Mendocino to defend as well. After a generation of settlement, I don't doubt the Prussians could have the sea approaches neatly bracketed to all of these, and hold Humboldt Bay as well though it is not so necessary--landing there leads to nowhere! But in the short run, it may be possible to ship in enough big guns and an artillery supply to defend one major approach but trying to cover them all would leave each vulnerable. Attacking a Prussian colony is of course an act of war against Prussia, but Prussia has no power projection to speak of in America other than California itself--indeed Polk may have an extra motive, to remove Prussia from the American board before it becomes dangerous. The USA can throw whatever it takes at Prussian California to win and then settle with an indemnity paid to Prussia later. Prussia, and hence the German empire of the future if that is not butterflied, may well hold it against the Americans forever, but this will be of little consequence in America for decades to come, unless of course the Prussians are spurred into diverting effort into a massive fleet and go hunting for any foothold in the Americas they can grab in order to marshal a later revenge strike on the Yankees. But I suppose the British would have issues with that even if they sympathized with the Prussian position.

By the strongest premise we've seen in these pages for a Prussian purchase. Mexico seeks not only money but a strong ally to set up some sort of barrier against the USA, and might even be willing to compromise with Texas if this turns Texas into a neutral buffer state. Under these circumstances even if Polk sends a fleet to attack California alone, bypassing all arguments with either Britain or Mexico, are the odds high that Mexico will unilaterally attack the US to honor her pact with Prussia? Much worse for the USA is if Britain decides she prefers California staying Prussian, even without broadening an attack on the USA from all possible avenues, a simple naval engagement with our fleet would probably neutralize it. This of course is an act of war by Britain against us, but it would be most unwise, as Polk clearly understood OTL for us to get into a general donnybrook with the British empire at that time. I do believe that most of Canada other than Halifax was vulnerable to overwhelming American force if raised quickly enough. But the long term settlement will be by the RN besieging, raiding and shelling US shores, and if they like reclaiming California from our occupation if we manage to land there earlier. We might be buffaloed into accepting British challenge as a declaration of war, but it would be foolish to do so.

But this same logic means that if nothing is to be gained by war with Mexico because Texas is coopted and we don't border on Mexican territory much, it is still vital to avoid war with Britain and that means a soft voice on the Oregon question is in order. I think the USA can prevent the British from claiming any of what is OTL Washington state, but cannot dislodge the British from BC completely.

So that does leave Puget sound as a base, but compromised. If the Columbia mouth is no good for deep draft shipping, another set of compromise base sites exist--bays like Tillamook. They are not so desirable because they are not easy to access from inland, but it would be possible I think to construct railroads for essential communications, and generally rely on shipping in supples coastwise from Portland.
 
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There were of course people interested in expansionism almost for its own sake. One gets the impression that they were in the business of drawing lines on maps, hardly aware of climate and such factors.

Regarding Brigham Young, reading up on it, I learn that he probably wanted the US to annex Deseret. It's not that the US was going to do it for certain, but that the Mormons would invite annexation. If the Prussians are opposed to that, the Mormons may well end up elsewhere.




Note that my map is a speculative indication, based purely on the declared wishes and needs of both Prussia and Mexico, and then applying those to the hypothetical colony. I rather suspect it would end up looking something like that, but there are no certainties.

A lack of opportunity for south-western expansion would probably have changed the USA's politics, but in what direction. On the one hand, a successful Prussian-Mexican-Texan deal ends US ambitions for annexing Texas, galvanising Clay. On the other hand, more people (Mormons) heading to Oregon, as well as that being the only place left where expansion is viable, lends credibilty to Polk's claims that annexing as much of Oregon as possible is vital. It must be taken into consideration as well that the Prussian colonsation would formally be initiated before the '44 election. So Texas isn't even an issue. It's all about Oregon, now. Feasibly, Polk could paint anyone opposed to aggressive policies regarding Oregon as weak and detrimantal to US interests on the Pacific coast.

ETA: It occurs to me that Polk might be foolhardy enough to agitate for Texas annexation anyway, regardless of Prussian and Mexican opposition and Texan treaty obligations prohibiting it. Combined with his aggressive stance on Oregon, the prospect of potential war with Britain, Prussia, Mexico and involvement in what may well become a civil war in Texas (republicans versus annexationists) would probably cost him the election. His victory was narrow in OTL, after all.
Purchase of all of Alta California would provide Prussia with San Diego bay as an additional port. Land east of the Sierra Nevada Range is difficult to access and perceived to be of marginal value..
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:...nia_-_Geographicus_-_TXORCA-mitchell-1846.jpg
 
in a war with Britain against us they'd have to fight their way out of the Sound!
That's part of the problem, and that's why I think they'd be much more aggressive. It's so easy for Britain to block the strait that the US has to control the entire strait of Juan de Fuca, which means a chunk of (if not all of) Vancouver Island.

to jingo against Prussia along with Germany.
Is that 'to jingo against Prussia AND Germany,' or 'to jingo against Prussia with German assistance?'

That still leaves Monterey, perhaps Drakes Bay or Tomales Bay (depending on draft), Bodega Bay and Mendocino to defend as well.
Historically, the US felt that none of these positions were worth defending: I don't think the Prussians would feel it necessary to do so either. Four of the five locations (Drakes Bay, Tomales Bay, Bodega Bay, and Mendocino) are all north of San Francisco bay. That means you have to march all the way around the North of San Pablo Bay (between 45 and 120 miles) and cross the Sacramento river, march another 80 miles round the south end of San Francisco bay, and confront the fixed landward defences there. I can't remember at what stage wagon transport starts consuming as many supplies as it carries, and unfortunately the guy who would know is no longer with us, but it's not an ideal situation.

Assuming that Monterey Bay is included in Prussian California (which I don't think is the case in Skallagrim's map) then you have to cross the Santa Cruz mountains. Fine for infantry, but very difficult for supply wagons and artillery, particularly siege artillery.

in the short run, it may be possible to ship in enough big guns and an artillery supply to defend one major approach
The 'short run' is, of course, a relative period of time. If the US wants to attack California, it has either to form an army and then send it overland, or to send a naval expedition round Cape Horn. Both of those take time and effort, particularly for a country which has little experience in mounting those kind of expeditions. While the Prussians may not have the naval power to be able to send reinforcements, I would be very surprised if they didn't arrange for the first contingent of troops to be in California by the time the handover is formally agreed, with the first contingent of military settlers due shortly afterwards. Coupled with existing Mexican artillery and fortifications, which I would imagine would be part of the handover, it's a reasonable base to build from.

If the Columbia mouth is no good for deep draft shipping, another set of compromise base sites exist--bays like Tillamook.
If you check p.11, bearing in mind that warships almost invariable draw 20 feet or more of water, I think it's unlikely that these compromise bases are much better than the Columbia river.
 
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OTL it was a bit brilliant of Polk to defuse the jingoism against Britain and divert it against Mexico. Here though there is a third alternative, which is to jingo against Prussia instead. With only a few years between purchase and an American war, I'm not sure I would not side with the people in the thread who have the Americans conquering California from Prussia. Just how fast could the Prussians set up adequate shore defenses, and if they do--what stops American naval vessels from finding an alternate port, landing troops and moving overland from theire.


Of course it might depend how wily the Prussians were.

WI they re-enact the total ban on slavery which currently exists in Mexican law - then drop hints that in some circumstance they might be willing to sell, provided that this ban is included in any treaty of cession, so that in effect such a treaty incorporates OTL's Wilmot Proviso? This could set Northern and Southern pols at each other's throats, while simultaneously arousing sympathy for Prussia in the North, so making a majority for war harder to obtain.
 
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