Prussia, lose not thy courage!

The Prussian victory in the Seven Years War secured not only the very important and rich province of Silesia for the Hohenzollerns but assured the ascendancy of Prussia as a Great Power in its own right on the Continent.

Now, I have seen proposed in a few alt - history timelines a victory for the arms of Austria which see Silesia returned and nascent Prussia ruined. My question is: could Prussia advance as per otl as a Great Power having suffered a defeat in the Seven Years War, and likewise the denial of the rich prize of Silesia?

As a starting point, I will propose to you that for whatever reason, Russia does not get East Prussia (which was, I believe the proposed agreement between Maria Theresia and Catharine).
 
My feeling is that Prussia could - if they got lucky. And it is not at all unreasonable for them to get lucky at some point in the next hundred and fifty years.

Brandenburg-Prussia is still one of the larger states in Germany, still an elector, still sitting on the border of a weakening Poland. And depending on the PoD, they may still have a very capable king with a decent amount of life in 'im. Frederick the Great lived until 1786 OTL.

So they are in a good position to take advantage of whatever opportunities luck throws them too.

Some examples of things I could see happening:

Perhaps, without Prussia there for them both to worry about, the Austrians and Russians spend more of their time worrying about each-other, and eventually (say from the mid 1770s to mid 1780s) an Austro-Russian war happens, Prussia then has an opportunity to side with either for gain.

The first partition of Poland may still happen in such a TL, and Prussia still has a chance of getting in on it (though slightly smaller, given they are rather weaker).

Or maybe Emperor Joseph II lives longer, and Austria is not so willing to negotiate a white peace ending the 1787–1791 war with the Turks, so the British coalition ends up declaring war against Austria. Prussia, Poland, the Netherlands and Britain then attack Austria (and possibly Russia too).

Or perhaps the French revolution still happens, some analogue to Napoleon (or the man himself) trashes the HRE, and Prussia plays its cards like Bavaria did in OTL, and becomes a big fat French ally that manages to keep most of its gains after the alt-Revolutionary Wars end.

Obviously there are lots of butterflies that could mean any of those specific examples don't happen. But the 18th Century was a very turbulent time in Europe, so my bet is that there will be several large upsets in the state of the continent before the century closes.

fasquardon
 
It could be that the partition of Poland still does happen, as it is in the best interests of all three states: Russia, Austria, and Prussia. Perhaps the partitions are still alotted as per our timeline? I could see the the three powers still use Poland's troubles as an opportunity to aggrandize their respective states.
 
It could be that the partition of Poland still does happen, as it is in the best interests of all three states: Russia, Austria, and Prussia. Perhaps the partitions are still alotted as per our timeline? I could see the the three powers still use Poland's troubles as an opportunity to aggrandize their respective states.

It being in the interests of all three states is highly debatable. I've read any number of opinions put forth by the various historians. Personally I lean to viewing the partitions as being good only for Prussia, and even for them, not very good.

Also, various historians either place the blame on Frederick the Great, Catherine the Great, or Joseph II (or some combination of the above in pairs) for coming up with the scheme. I tend to think it is one of those things that is impossible to know now. But if the scheme was Frederick's invention, or something cooked up by Frederick and Joseph together, then it is rather unlikely to happen with a weakened Prussia.

Also, if the scheme was Joseph's invention, well, would Joseph II be so expansionist without Frederick's successful expansionism to model himself after? Joseph does seem to have seen the Prussian king as one of his models.

fasquardon
 
Also, if the scheme was Joseph's invention, well, would Joseph II be so expansionist without Frederick's successful expansionism to model himself after? Joseph does seem to have seen the Prussian king as one of his models.

fasquardon

Russia pretty thorougholy dominated the Commonwealth prior to the partitions, so I can't see it proposing it...
 
Perhaps for that reason Joseph II might devise such a scheme with Prussia, so as to contain Russian influence and power...OR perhaps Russia and Austria maintain cordial relations and so effect their plans for the Balkans.
 
Russia pretty thorougholy dominated the Commonwealth prior to the partitions, so I can't see it proposing it...

The status quo was pretty untenable in the long term, with the increasing popularity of reforms. Poland could either be allowed to break free, or be partitioned.
 
One huge problem is the French watershed of 1789-1815.
On one hand, with a PoD around 1760 you cannot keep those events identical to OTL, but OTOH it is impossible to calculate what would happen instead. Way to much tiny random chances.

Assuming that Friedrich is dead and Friedrich Wilhelm II succees him as a minor or barely major boy king: Probably Finckenstein and Hertzberg will still be powerful, and a confrontational anti-Austrian course will be sought by a weakened Prussia. That might lead to a pro-Russian policy. But being Russia's western vanguard does not guarantee success.

Without Silesia, B_P is poorly populated and poor. Internal improvement may help, but only so much. Little industry, no mining.

BTW, what happened to Cleve-Mark in the peace settlement? If B-P has lost these as well (either to Austria or the Palatinate/Jülich-Berg) then the industrial side is severely weakened in the long run.
 
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