On a minor note: how'll Frederick II be remembered? Frederick the Brash?
He'll be remembered as a great general still. One who learned on the battlefield and excelled. But later on got full of himself and got overwhelmed.
On a minor note: how'll Frederick II be remembered? Frederick the Brash?
It's true that as the Russians forced the Ottomans to give them their attention with Suvorov's successes that the Austrians began to experience success.Which is why I said independently the Austrians floundered, which occurred during the beginning of the war before Russia had committed forces to Moldovia. In fact much of the Austrian later success I'd attribute to Suvorov's genius not Austrian might, because it was truly Suvorov's brilliance that won Rymnik and took Bucharest. And when referencing "previous" I realize I left off the following word, wars. So the sentence should have read "Whilst the Austrians independently floundered like they did in the previous war against the Ottomans." And with that I was referring to the disaster for Austria that was the Austro-Turkish War of 1735. In the conflicts preceding that war the Austrians did experience much success thanks to the great Eugene of Savoy.
France will oppose Austria. Even the Dauphin who was friendly towards Austria and the pro-Devots wasn't about to allow Austrian hegemony over Germany. And his ministers, even those who liked the Austrian alliance, would stand with him against Austria. It's just something France can't allow. France has been working for centuries to prevent a strong German power becoming too powerful. That cause motivated many wars and much of French policy in regards to aiding, funding, arming, etc. smaller German powers to oppose the Austrians at various times. And should Joseph move on Bavaria than France will do their best to form a coalition of Saxons, Brandenburgs, etc. to oppose Austria's absorption of Bavaria. Another reason France will seek war is because if Joseph tries to give the Wittenburgs the Southern Netherlands then he not just insults France by giving away what they see as a prize that should be theirs but also directly opposes their attempts to achieve hegemony in the region. Of course though the French would attempt to use diplomacy and veiled threats to stop Austria before moving to ultimatums and war.
Russia unlike France would not enjoy the support of various electors and minor states in HRE. However Russia does have a strong ally in Poland and can garner some support in the HRE through Saxony and Brandenburg who will oppose greater Austrian hegemony in Germany. And considering Russia's vast armies and military strength that's probably enough. Augment to that the loyal Commonwealth, the fearul Saxons, and the vengeful Brandenburgers and who have an alliance that can halt Austria's expansion.
As I already said I doubt France will heavily involve itself in America under the Dauphin, but it is a possibility. And if France does then yes France is out. Meanwhile Spain's little influence in Germany is also negated by the American war. And of course Britain can't influence it even though they strongly oppose anyone gaining too much power. Though Hanover might be able to oppose Austria alongside the Russians.
Joseph definitely could have used more diplomatic tact. Had he first just acceded to Charles' demands than there wouldn't be much issue there. Though some Bavarians might go against Austria and aid the Russians. However I doubt you can eliminate Saxony's fear. Any Austrian gain adds to Saxon fear and Saxon gains from the 7YW are more than negated by Austria's gaining of Silesia. At the time though Joseph probably could have prevented the archbishoprics from becoming scared with some tact (but they really should be scared considering his stance on religion which was revealed later by his rule).
Peter's focus on Germany doesn't take away enough for France to gain the PLC. Russia still has its natural influence due to size and being a neighbor. They also have the fact that they gave the Commonwealth Ducal Prussia. And then they have their military influence and finacial influence. The former meaning that if Russia is worried about the election they'll position an army at Warsaw and the latter meaning that if the Commonwealth tries anything their trade and economy will suffer. Meanwhile the French influence in the Commonwealth somewhat died when Augustus II was king of the Commonwealth after the succession war. Only really Austria could try and oppose Russia in the Commonwealth, but again its unlikely they could. And should the Wettins keep the Commonwealth then that's all the more reason to expect Poland to add itself to the analogous War of the Bavarian Succession.
Sweden under Gustav III will join the French camp in Europe and the Ottomans of course. However neither can oppose Russia by themselves and together they can't really either. In fact most likely if Gustav tries to do so during the Russo-Ottoman War he'll lose Finland, which Peter at once was nominated King of, because of Peter's interest in a northern empire. Whilst the Ottomans would get away lightly with the lose of a few ports and fortresses, maybe a province at most. And Brandenburg would side with Russia definitely until the end of the Franco-Austrian alliance. After that though yeah Brandenburg becomes a wild card.
Note: I like how you also realized the Kingdom of Prussia would be no more with the lost of Ducal Prussia, unless the Wettins add it to their titles. Meanwhile Brandenburg would become the name of the state once more.
Austrian acquisition of Bavaria doesn't necessarily equal complete domination of the Empire though; it localises Austrian power removes it Rhine for the most part which could actually be in French interests (something of a co-dominion, give & take relationship provided the Austrian alliance holds especially with this more C. Europe concerned Russia under Peter III probably in an alliance with GBR & the Brandenburg elector).
France may not be able directly acquire the S. Netherlands but it opens it up to direct French influence, and it opens the S. Netherlands to being used as a French base of operations provided Franco-Wittlesbach relations are good, I don't particularly see Pal/Wittlesbachs allying with Hannover/GBR. Joseph II abolished the Barrier Treaty due to Netherlands ineffectiveness at maintaining the regions defence; I think only the Palatine itself could bring a motion before the Imperial diet to eject French troops from the S. Netherlands should they ever cross there w/o permission (could be an income source for the palatine making the French pay to pass through/operate from there)
Apologies if I'm taking the discussion too much away from the PLC.