Prussia crushed: two questions

So here's the scenario: a more influential Pitt comes to power sooner and moves more resources to colonial theatres with lower subsidies to Prussia. Prussia then collapses while the Tsarita is still alive. It is then forced to sign a peace treaty, where it loses Cleves and Mark to Saxony, Silesia to Austria and East Prussia to Russia, who then swaps it with territory in Eastern Poland.

The war with Britain and France goes on under Pitt's leadership until the mid 1760s. Hannover manages to repel the French as in OTL, while Britain not only gets its OTL conquests, but also picks up Hispaniola and possibly New Orleans. Pitt gets his way in pushing the war on longer until Britain is much more war weary, but France is exhausted and has to beg for peace.

Question 1: What happens to the Austrian Netherlands?

Under the terms of the deal with the French, once Austria got Silesia back it had to give the AN to France in exchange for Hapsburg gains in Italy. Now Austria is pretty keen on getting rid of it, and France is certainly on board, but Britain would be pretty horrified at it. But what's to stop the transfer happening six months after the British-French peace deal? Britain could declare war again, but it's pretty war-weary, there's little left colonially to take, and it would expose Hannover afresh. An alternative possibility is that France and Austria come to an arrangement where Austria holds onto it for a bit, in exchange for French support over future Bavarian succession.

This brings me to...

Question 2: Does the diplomatic revolution survive?

Now that Prussia is neutralised as a threat, is the Franco-Austro-Russian alliance still viable? From the perspective of each country:

France: wants revenge on Britain without distractions. Would be keen on keeping both alliances, unless dissatisfied with Austria over the abrogation of the AN deal.

Austria: wants to avoid Franco-Russian encirclement at all costs. Would probably be keen on maintaing the French alliance for help in Germany. Not sure how they'd feel about Russia.

Russia: would want to drop Austria alliance, but wouldn't want to face France and Austria together.

My instinct is that it would probably be survive, but would like others' views. If it does, how would Britain react? Perhaps do its best to gather up all the smaller Northern powers?
 
Well in my timeline I have the Austrian Netherlands stay Austrian. This lasts up until 1799 when the land is ceded to France by Vienna following the French triumph in the Revolutionary Wars (1790-1805). An attempt to originally cede the Netherlands to France in the 1760s is blocked by Britain as you suggested.

Now the Diplomatic Revolution in my mind, and in my TL, dissolves after the war. France and Austria are the paramount military powers now in western and central Europe and so return to their normal state of opposition. Russian-Austrian relations sour over a succession war in Poland in the late 1760s/early 1770s. Austria then turns to Prussia (now a mid-level power who is wary of French allies to their west and the new Bourbon ruled Poland). So I set up a Prussian-Austrian-Britain axis that battles France, Spain, Bavaria and Sardinia in the 1790s. I just don't see France and Austria maintaining their alliance without the Prussian threat.
 
Well in my timeline I have the Austrian Netherlands stay Austrian. This lasts up until 1799 when the land is ceded to France by Vienna following the French triumph in the Revolutionary Wars (1790-1805). An attempt to originally cede the Netherlands to France in the 1760s is blocked by Britain as you suggested.

Does Britain have the influence to stop the transfer on the continent? I'm not sure.

Now the Diplomatic Revolution in my mind, and in my TL, dissolves after the war. France and Austria are the paramount military powers now in western and central Europe and so return to their normal state of opposition.

There are other threats to both of them, however. I figure France doesn't want to fight Austria in its next war with Britain, while Austria doesn't want to fight France in its next war with Russia.

A big part of your timeline seems to depend on the Bourbons inheriting Poland. While not impossible, that does seem to be pretty unlikely considering it would upset the balance of power in their already hefty power in France, Spain, the Two Sicilies etc. If that doesn't happen Austria would be more comfortable with a Bourbon alliance.
 
Does Britain have the influence to stop the transfer on the continent? I'm not sure.
If Austria thinks that it 's quite likely to need a British alliance (and British subsidies for its own forces) again in the relatively near future, then yes.

What I really can't see happening here is Prussia agreeing to surrender East Prussia to Russia.
 
A big part of your timeline seems to depend on the Bourbons inheriting Poland. While not impossible, that does seem to be pretty unlikely considering it would upset the balance of power in their already hefty power in France, Spain, the Two Sicilies etc. If that doesn't happen Austria would be more comfortable with a Bourbon alliance.

With Prussia destroyed, there's only four great powers left. France will still be expansionist, and Austria will still be the leading German power contesting French expansion in Germany and Italy. The next war will see both fighting each other, with Austria allied again to Britain.
 
If Austria thinks that it 's quite likely to need a British alliance (and British subsidies for its own forces) again in the relatively near future, then yes.

With Prussia destroyed, there's only four great powers left. France will still be expansionist, and Austria will still be the leading German power contesting French expansion in Germany and Italy. The next war will see both fighting each other, with Austria allied again to Britain.

Why would Austria abandon its current allies to face a two front war against the two biggest armies on the continent, to throw its lot in with a country that it previously abandoned for being unreliable, and whose last ally just got dismantled because of a lack of support?

What I really can't see happening here is Prussia agreeing to surrender East Prussia to Russia.
Prussia doesn't have much of a choice except to agree to whatever is given to it. Every part of the country is occupied. The only reason it'll survive at all is because total annexation would be bad diplomatic form.
 
Why would Austria abandon its current allies to face a two front war against the two biggest armies on the continent, to throw its lot in with a country that it previously abandoned for being unreliable, and whose last ally just got dismantled because of a lack of support?form.

Because the ally in the East has plans on Poland and the Balkans that go against Austrian interests and the ally in the West has plans on the Rhine and Northern Italy that go against Austrian interests, whereas the British interests are much more in line with the Austrians: keep France out of Germany.

The alliance in the 7-years war was made for a certain purpose. That purpose is fulfilled. Now the fundamental trends in European policy reemerge and reestablish the traditional alliance system which was traditional for a reason.
 
Because the ally in the East has plans on Poland and the Balkans that go against Austrian interests and the ally in the West has plans on the Rhine and Northern Italy that go against Austrian interests, whereas the British interests are much more in line with the Austrians: keep France out of Germany.

The alliance in the 7-years war was made for a certain purpose. That purpose is fulfilled. Now the fundamental trends in European policy reemerge and reestablish the traditional alliance system which was traditional for a reason.

I agree with the above. It's not so much a case of Austria saying "well lets be enemies with Russia and France again" rather the strategic interests of the countries will inevitably set them on opposite sides.
 
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