So here's the scenario: a more influential Pitt comes to power sooner and moves more resources to colonial theatres with lower subsidies to Prussia. Prussia then collapses while the Tsarita is still alive. It is then forced to sign a peace treaty, where it loses Cleves and Mark to Saxony, Silesia to Austria and East Prussia to Russia, who then swaps it with territory in Eastern Poland.
The war with Britain and France goes on under Pitt's leadership until the mid 1760s. Hannover manages to repel the French as in OTL, while Britain not only gets its OTL conquests, but also picks up Hispaniola and possibly New Orleans. Pitt gets his way in pushing the war on longer until Britain is much more war weary, but France is exhausted and has to beg for peace.
Question 1: What happens to the Austrian Netherlands?
Under the terms of the deal with the French, once Austria got Silesia back it had to give the AN to France in exchange for Hapsburg gains in Italy. Now Austria is pretty keen on getting rid of it, and France is certainly on board, but Britain would be pretty horrified at it. But what's to stop the transfer happening six months after the British-French peace deal? Britain could declare war again, but it's pretty war-weary, there's little left colonially to take, and it would expose Hannover afresh. An alternative possibility is that France and Austria come to an arrangement where Austria holds onto it for a bit, in exchange for French support over future Bavarian succession.
This brings me to...
Question 2: Does the diplomatic revolution survive?
Now that Prussia is neutralised as a threat, is the Franco-Austro-Russian alliance still viable? From the perspective of each country:
France: wants revenge on Britain without distractions. Would be keen on keeping both alliances, unless dissatisfied with Austria over the abrogation of the AN deal.
Austria: wants to avoid Franco-Russian encirclement at all costs. Would probably be keen on maintaing the French alliance for help in Germany. Not sure how they'd feel about Russia.
Russia: would want to drop Austria alliance, but wouldn't want to face France and Austria together.
My instinct is that it would probably be survive, but would like others' views. If it does, how would Britain react? Perhaps do its best to gather up all the smaller Northern powers?
The war with Britain and France goes on under Pitt's leadership until the mid 1760s. Hannover manages to repel the French as in OTL, while Britain not only gets its OTL conquests, but also picks up Hispaniola and possibly New Orleans. Pitt gets his way in pushing the war on longer until Britain is much more war weary, but France is exhausted and has to beg for peace.
Question 1: What happens to the Austrian Netherlands?
Under the terms of the deal with the French, once Austria got Silesia back it had to give the AN to France in exchange for Hapsburg gains in Italy. Now Austria is pretty keen on getting rid of it, and France is certainly on board, but Britain would be pretty horrified at it. But what's to stop the transfer happening six months after the British-French peace deal? Britain could declare war again, but it's pretty war-weary, there's little left colonially to take, and it would expose Hannover afresh. An alternative possibility is that France and Austria come to an arrangement where Austria holds onto it for a bit, in exchange for French support over future Bavarian succession.
This brings me to...
Question 2: Does the diplomatic revolution survive?
Now that Prussia is neutralised as a threat, is the Franco-Austro-Russian alliance still viable? From the perspective of each country:
France: wants revenge on Britain without distractions. Would be keen on keeping both alliances, unless dissatisfied with Austria over the abrogation of the AN deal.
Austria: wants to avoid Franco-Russian encirclement at all costs. Would probably be keen on maintaing the French alliance for help in Germany. Not sure how they'd feel about Russia.
Russia: would want to drop Austria alliance, but wouldn't want to face France and Austria together.
My instinct is that it would probably be survive, but would like others' views. If it does, how would Britain react? Perhaps do its best to gather up all the smaller Northern powers?