Prussia annexes territory in the Seven Weeks' war: Austrian Revanchism?

This is something I've been wondering about: at the end of the 1866 Austro-Prussian war King Wilhelm I wanted to annex parts of Austria but was persuaded not to by Chancellor Bismarck, who saw that taking territory from the Habsburgs would end any chance of a later alliance. So lets say Wilhelm gets his way and annexes at least some parts of Austria (maybe Austrian Silesia?). What is the short and long-term repercussions of this action? Would this lead to Austrian participation in the Franco-Prussian war? If not, would we see a later Franco-Austrian alliance aimed at retaking their provinces from Germany? Or was a Austro-German alliance inevitable?
 
This is something I've been wondering about: at the end of the 1866 Austro-Prussian war King Wilhelm I wanted to annex parts of Austria but was persuaded not to by Chancellor Bismarck, who saw that taking territory from the Habsburgs would end any chance of a later alliance. So lets say Wilhelm gets his way and annexes at least some parts of Austria (maybe Austrian Silesia?). What is the short and long-term repercussions of this action? Would this lead to Austrian participation in the Franco-Prussian war? If not, would we see a later Franco-Austrian alliance aimed at retaking their provinces from Germany? Or was a Austro-German alliance inevitable?


Austria was notoriousiy slow-moving. so almost certainly won't have acted in the first week of the war, when French troops were on German spoil. Once the tide has clearly swung the other way, she will of course not intervene at all.
 
The relations between Austria-Hungary and France weren't ideal either. France had actively supported Sardinia-Piedmont, later Italy, in driving Austria out of the Italian peninsula, which from the Viennese point of view was part of their sphere of influence.

The Austrian half of the empire still considered themselves German, though not under the small Germany definition (OTL Germany was Kleindeutschland). So the still wanted some credibility there.
AFAIK the Austro-Hungarian position in any 'German'-French conflict by that point depended on the position of the southern German states; Austria-Hungary did not want to lose any more influence.

Now if the southern German states hesitate and don't support Prussia, then I can see Austria-Hungary and France cooperate on the basis, that the enemy of my enemy is my 'friend' (so an alliance of convenience).
 
What was wilhelm I was looking for? that wans't bohemia(aka the old Austrian Electoral House and a way to humillate the hasburg even more), that is a big prize but i think can be pulled it, and yeah that bits of Austria Silesia can be pulled too.

I think they will get some heat against germany but after seeing how weak they're in the balkans, that will end quick, as both germany and austria have compatible goals in that regard(keep russia out)
 
Austrian (and later Czech) Silesia is probably a small enough transfer that it can be eventually forgotten. If Wilhelm went for Bohemia then I can't help but think that there'll be a Franco-Austrian-Russian alliance to contain Germany in the works, though it certainly wouldn't be the most stable affair.
 
A further problem is that any Prussian annexation mean Italy doing the same thing with Trentino (who was occupied by Garibaldi troops); in OTL Bismark blocked any attempt like this, but if ITTL the chancellor is 'convinced' to let go this idea and accept some part of A-H, Italy will not leave the area and will annex it.
 

Kingpoleon

Banned
Why don't we suppose that Prussia takes Austrian Silesia? It's very tiny, IIRC. Bohemian independence seems more likely to me, though. A free Bohemia would have interesting effects as either a buffer state against Austria or, later, part of Germany. Neither Austria nor Russia wanted to declare war for independence of minorities, as their own minorities would probably rise up against them. Only France could afford to declare war on Germany for Czech independence; and we all know what would happen. It would be the Franco-Prussian War all over again except for an extra medium-sized Prussian ally.
 
Austrian Silesia I could see happening. However, taking Bohemia and Moravia from Austria-Hungary would finish it as a state, I think. I don't think that is survivable - AH certainly wouldn't be a great power anymore. Austria would loose half the population of Cisleithnia and its most important industrial center (I think). I expect that this would effectively lead to the split-up and dissolution of the rest of Austria-Hungary soon after. So no chance for revanchism in that case. :)
 

Kingpoleon

Banned
Austrian Silesia I could see happening. However, taking Bohemia and Moravia from Austria-Hungary would finish it as a state, I think. I don't think that is survivable - AH certainly wouldn't be a great power anymore. Austria would loose half the population of Cisleithnia and its most important industrial center (I think). I expect that this would effectively lead to the split-up and dissolution of the rest of Austria-Hungary soon after. So no chance for revanchism in that case. :)
I was trying to point out that such a case might lead to a Quadruple Alliance of Russia, France, Austria, and Denmark. Russia and Austria were quite close after they mutually ended the Hungarian Rebellion in 1848. Do you know if it's possible?
 
I was trying to point out that such a case might lead to a Quadruple Alliance of Russia, France, Austria, and Denmark. Russia and Austria were quite close after they mutually ended the Hungarian Rebellion in 1848. Do you know if it's possible?

No, sadly Russia and Austria fell out over the Crimean war. Nicholas I expected Franz Joseph to side with Russia or at the very least Russian-friendly neutrality, and was furious when Vienna diplomatically sided with England and France. During the 1850s and 1860s Austria was actually quite isolated diplomatically, which is why they had no allies to speak of during the Second War of Italian independence and the Austro-Prussian war.
 
Of course, Russia was actually more of a Prussian ally for the period. The three-Emperor-league was not made because Austria and Russia loved eachother.

So even if Prussia murders Austria, it'll be a while before Russia shifts to actually being anti-Prussian, most likely (even if taking all of Bohemia and Moravia might be a large enough transfer to speed it up; but then, that seems a rather extreme case; and even so, Prussia DID grow massively in the seven weeks war without provoking too much).

I'd sooner expect half of Europe to still be worried, France to be more happy to start a war over some slight, the Franco-Prussian war happens, Prussia still wins to the surprise of many, and only after Alsace-Lorraine/Elzass-Lotharingen is taken do the other powers respond properly. And by that time, Austria may be such a mess that said response is mostly about limiting German gains from Austria's collapse (to just Austria & the previously taken Bohemia-Moravia, maybe).
 
Of course, Russia was actually more of a Prussian ally for the period. The three-Emperor-league was not made because Austria and Russia loved eachother.

So even if Prussia murders Austria, it'll be a while before Russia shifts to actually being anti-Prussian, most likely (even if taking all of Bohemia and Moravia might be a large enough transfer to speed it up; but then, that seems a rather extreme case; and even so, Prussia DID grow massively in the seven weeks war without provoking too much).

I'd sooner expect half of Europe to still be worried, France to be more happy to start a war over some slight, the Franco-Prussian war happens, Prussia still wins to the surprise of many, and only after Alsace-Lorraine/Elzass-Lotharingen is taken do the other powers respond properly. And by that time, Austria may be such a mess that said response is mostly about limiting German gains from Austria's collapse (to just Austria & the previously taken Bohemia-Moravia, maybe).

Yep, Austro-Russian relations never really recovered from the Crimean War (although the rivalry in the Balkans didn't help things). However would the Great powers really tolerate the dismemberment of Austria? I think not.

Chances are if Prussia tried to annex Bohemia, we'd see a response similar to the one to the Treaty of San Stefano: the rest of Europe freaks out and mandates Prussia to limit its gains. So I'd guess Prussia would annex whats left of Austrian Silesia and maybe get the parts of Bohemia that Hitler later took, but the rest would remain in Austria or become a dependent state of Berlin.

Also, once that happens (assuming that Bohemia is removed from Austria), we'll no doubt see Hungary break away, taking Croatia with it and leaving Austria with its original hereditary lands and Galicia. Not sure what would happen to Galicia though. Russia had enough trouble with Congress Poland so I'm not sure if they would want to add another few million problems. However, I can't see Germany being able to govern that region successfully, nor can I see either of them wanting it independent., so I guess it would stay with Vienna for the time being.
 

TFSmith121

Banned
And the Russians and Prussians had a formal agreement

And the Russians and Prussians had a formal agreement (Alvensleben, IIRC) that amounted to cooperation against the Polish insurgents in 1863...

Frankly, Austria's position pretty much gives Prussia+, Russia, and Italy a reason to join up in the 1860s...

Carving up the Hapsburg's territories based on language and proximity, with (presumably) independence for a grateful Hungary to remove that particular bit of future acrimony from the picture, and all three states (four counting Hungary) walk away with significant territorial, population, and economic gains, plus (from Prussia/Germany's perspective) it removes the Balkans from being a place to waste Pomeranian grenadiers.

What's to prevent it? France? Britain? Turkey?

Seems like several provinces too far for all three of them...

Best,
 
Independent Hungary is untenable which is what Bismarck was afraid of. Better the Habsburgs (tied to Berlin) containing this than the new German Empire.
 
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