I've complained about the entire Protect and Survive genre being too optimistic, mainly because I am not at all sure the effects of radioactive fallout have ever been properly addressed. General Finlay's grim and sad stories of East Asia seemed to face the harsh reality of a mid-Eighties full exchange more dead on than most--though I confess I have not read many others besides the original, up to the nuking of Buenos Aires which I frankly think is Ramboesque fanboyism taken to a pointless brutality, after which I gave up on it. When one combines a general attitude of "it will be grim and sad but roll up your sleeves and start rebuilding, we protected, you survived!" with something like that it seems like an ugly form of wish fulfillment casting the plausibility of everything into doubt.

But that said, and with serious reservations and questions about just how insidious and pervasive the harm done by radioisotopes getting into the food chain would realistically be, I have liked this TL in particular because it does seem meaningfully optimistic. One might hope a real civilization can recover centered in Florida and the Caribbean here.

So, it is a bit jarring to have a flashback to doomed Berlin. Why exactly do we get a post that builds up a relationship with a soldier from Florida and the miraculously spared city of Berlin, only to render everything pointless by nuking it? Why has the TL moved on from the Exchange, only glance back at it for an outcome that is conveyed entirely in:

...all of Berlin disintegrated under a five-megaton nuclear warhead, along with Page's tank and the Soviets in pursuit and the NVA and the British and French. There would be no third act for Berlin, no city to rebuild again. This was The End.

What was the point of this now?
 
They don't even have that. IIRC the US brigade had two small tank companies, the British brigade had a single squadron of approx. 18 tanks and the French something similar. All three did have a variety of APCs and other AFVs, but were in the main light infantry.

I'm assuming that full brigades were built up in TTW.
 
I've complained about the entire Protect and Survive genre being too optimistic, mainly because I am not at all sure the effects of radioactive fallout have ever been properly addressed. General Finlay's grim and sad stories of East Asia seemed to face the harsh reality of a mid-Eighties full exchange more dead on than most--though I confess I have not read many others besides the original, up to the nuking of Buenos Aires which I frankly think is Ramboesque fanboyism taken to a pointless brutality, after which I gave up on it. When one combines a general attitude of "it will be grim and sad but roll up your sleeves and start rebuilding, we protected, you survived!" with something like that it seems like an ugly form of wish fulfillment casting the plausibility of everything into doubt.

But that said, and with serious reservations and questions about just how insidious and pervasive the harm done by radioisotopes getting into the food chain would realistically be, I have liked this TL in particular because it does seem meaningfully optimistic. One might hope a real civilization can recover centered in Florida and the Caribbean here.

So, it is a bit jarring to have a flashback to doomed Berlin. Why exactly do we get a post that builds up a relationship with a soldier from Florida and the miraculously spared city of Berlin, only to render everything pointless by nuking it? Why has the TL moved on from the Exchange, only glance back at it for an outcome that is conveyed entirely in:



What was the point of this now?

I am still figuring out how to write the next chapter. I looked back in the original P&S, saw the part about how Berlin survived two hours into the Exchange, and had the idea for a brief story, and wanted to write it. I also watched Atomic Blonde twice last week, so that's had Berlin on my mind as well. I wanted to make sure it tied in SOMEHOW, while using an idea I had. That's why it's here, and I'm sorry it disappointed you.
 
I am still figuring out how to write the next chapter. I looked back in the original P&S, saw the part about how Berlin survived two hours into the Exchange, and had the idea for a brief story, and wanted to write it. I also watched Atomic Blonde twice last week, so that's had Berlin on my mind as well. I wanted to make sure it tied in SOMEHOW, while using an idea I had. That's why it's here, and I'm sorry it disappointed you.
It was good for what it was, which is fiction of the doomed. I think I may have been overdosing on that lately, with a binge marathon of The Cabin in the Woods, Life, and Skyline.

It helps to think of it as totally standalone from this TL.
 
I've complained about the entire Protect and Survive genre being too optimistic, mainly because I am not at all sure the effects of radioactive fallout have ever been properly addressed. General Finlay's grim and sad stories of East Asia seemed to face the harsh reality of a mid-Eighties full exchange more dead on than most--though I confess I have not read many others besides the original, up to the nuking of Buenos Aires which I frankly think is Ramboesque fanboyism taken to a pointless brutality, after which I gave up on it. When one combines a general attitude of "it will be grim and sad but roll up your sleeves and start rebuilding, we protected, you survived!" with something like that it seems like an ugly form of wish fulfillment casting the plausibility of everything into doubt.

But that said, and with serious reservations and questions about just how insidious and pervasive the harm done by radioisotopes getting into the food chain would realistically be, I have liked this TL in particular because it does seem meaningfully optimistic. One might hope a real civilization can recover centered in Florida and the Caribbean here.

Read Land of Sad Songs (Protect and Survive in Finland) by @DrakonFin; that's grim in a lot of areas (then again, so are all of the P & S stories to some extent)...
 
There would be no third act for Berlin, no city to rebuild again. This was The End.
It is unfortunately the end for those in Berlin, but Berlin can be rebuilt much later on, although by the time it regains more than regional importance, mankind will be living all over the solar system.
 
I've complained about the entire Protect and Survive genre being too optimistic, mainly because I am not at all sure the effects of radioactive fallout have ever been properly addressed.

I wonder about the radioactive fallout, since in case of largest field experiment, Chernobyl, the effects of fallout have been minimal compared to what was initially expected. 28 firemen died fighting the fires, 19 afterwards, but the number of cancer cases even in long term have been so small they're hard to distinguish. In Fukushima no-one has died to radiation.
Moreover, the nature has been proven to be far more resilient in face of radiation than thought. So I think that in case of a nuclear war deaths due to fallout would be very difficult to assess statistically from all the deaths due to direct bomb effects, starvation etc.
 
up to the nuking of Buenos Aires which I frankly think is Ramboesque fanboyism taken to a pointless brutality

I disagree. Whitelaw's Government was faced with a difficult choice of how to respond based on patchy information, not to mention the fact that the Cabinet was under the most extreme stress at the time. It was undoubtedly the wrong decision, but far from the worst one.

I'm assuming that full brigades were built up in TTW.

Fair enough, although to be honest I'd be surprised if they were. However politically it would possibly be important to be seen to reinforce West Berlin even if it was not militarily sensible.

In Fukushima no-one has died to radiation.

The evacuation killed more people than the accident itself. Moreover the team of US experts sent to Japan were exposed to higher levels of radiation while they were over the Pacific than at the site itself.
 
I wonder about the radioactive fallout, since in case of largest field experiment, Chernobyl, the effects of fallout have been minimal compared to what was initially expected. 28 firemen died fighting the fires, 19 afterwards, but the number of cancer cases even in long term have been so small they're hard to distinguish. In Fukushima no-one has died to radiation.
Moreover, the nature has been proven to be far more resilient in face of radiation than thought. So I think that in case of a nuclear war deaths due to fallout would be very difficult to assess statistically from all the deaths due to direct bomb effects, starvation etc.

I addressed it a bit in Ashes of the Dragon. Hong Kong and Macau were exposed to large levels of immediate fallout from the Pearl River strikes. Central China was heavily irradiated by dirty warheads and depopulated. By the 2010's, while southern and western China started recovering, the center of the country was left behind as a result of the Soviets bursting the dikes and revetments on the Yellow and Yangtze Rivers. Because the two rivers have a regular flooding pattern every spring, the floodwaters would carry irradiated soil, silt, and debris from upstream impact sites downriver towards the river deltas and deposit it atop the richest topsoil in East Asia. As a result, most of the central Chinese plains are unable to support the same large-scale agriculture that made Chinese civilization possible in the first place thanks to radiation. Eventually the radioactive debris and topsoil would be washed out to sea, but it would take into the 21st Century. And, by then the population would have permanently shifted towards the south and west (excepting Taiwan).

I also touched on long-term fallout impact with one of the minor characters who discusses sterility resulting from radioactive fallout exposure. But, I never got around to dealing with it as a plot device.
 

James G

Gone Fishin'
I wonder about the radioactive fallout, since in case of largest field experiment, Chernobyl, the effects of fallout have been minimal compared to what was initially expected. 28 firemen died fighting the fires, 19 afterwards, but the number of cancer cases even in long term have been so small they're hard to distinguish. In Fukushima no-one has died to radiation.
Moreover, the nature has been proven to be far more resilient in face of radiation than thought. So I think that in case of a nuclear war deaths due to fallout would be very difficult to assess statistically from all the deaths due to direct bomb effects, starvation etc.

I disagree. Chernobyl and Fukushima were accidents at nuclear plants with radiation releases. The P&S universe shows the mass usage of multi-megaton nuclear weapons, most of them will be airburst. Rivers will be poisoned, whole regions will be too. There is a very good chance that 'special features' will be used with such bombs once it goes to the free-for-all, making their radiation even more potent.
This will kill millions upon millions in truly horrific deaths coming from radiation with no evacuation, no treatment. The world would be poisoned. Humanity would survive but it will be hell for a long time in many places.
Accidents with releases from power stations do not compare to what would come from full-scale nuclear warfare.
 
I come down on the side of the aftermath of a nuclear war being somewhat rather unpleasant. Plus, it probably would've knocked Doctor Who off the air until at least the early Twenty-First Century.
 
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Accidents with releases from power stations do not compare to what would come from full-scale nuclear warfare.

Mainly because nuclear war, with the detonation of nuclear bombs, involves the release of massive amounts of three kinds of radionucleides:

1) the sort of "fallout" a lot of the dismissers of the extreme danger of this aspect focus on exclusively--the secondary transmuted external materials, neutron activated by close proximity to the release of neutrons from the fireball. This varies a lot, with airbursts generating relatively little and groundbursts churning up a lot of dust and generating a thousand times more. This is a broad spectrum of isotopes, most of them activated in the sense of being radioactive isotopes. Optimists tend to argue airbursts would be preferred over groundburts.

But the other two kinds of radionuclides form just the same regardless of where the bomb is detonated:

2) decayed daughter products of fission of uranium or plutonium. Since the mass that is released as energy by fission is about 1/1000 of the parent mass, the mass of the daughter products is essentially the same as the portion of fissile metal one has managed to make react. It is a bell curve of nuclei with atomic weights about 1/2 that of the parent nucleus, in this case the curve is centered on atomic weight 120 or so. But it has considerable breadth too. Again the majority of these nuclei are radioactive to one degree or another.

3) unfissioned parent fissile material, uranium 235 or plutonium. Plutonium is very poisonous, mainly because chemically speaking it tends to be taken up and deposited in bone marrow, and small quantities put out enough radiation there to make one very very sick.

All of these materials are vaporized and become dust of various grades, shading down to individual molecules. These materials are gradually dispersed, large numbers remaining near the release site, but others being blown with winds great distances away, portions remaining in the stratosphere and being blown all around the world.

The Japanese reactor is not at all a valid comparison because it was a matter of secondary materials being released, not the primary mix of uranium and its daughter isotopes. Chernobyl was admittedly more comparable because what was released there was a combination of combustion products of the graphite moderator with air, where the graphite had itself been neutron activated and to an extent permeated with stray daughter products and the occasional spalled uranium nucleus, and then the hot combustion going on to a certain extent set the fuel elements themselves burning and contributing to the soot cloud.

So, how valid a comparison the neighborhood of Chernobyl might be to a site hit by a nuclear warhead strike depends on whether the fire, before it was finally contained with layers of boron-laced sand dropped on it, managed to burn and vaporize a mass of core uranium comparable to the tonnage of fissile material installed in each bomb. A much greater quantity of material needs to be incorporated than undergoes an actual fission reaction, and the vast majority of the energy a so-called "hydrogen bomb" releases is also from secondary fission triggered by the fusion event. So if one knows the ratio of effectively fissioned nuclei to those present to enable that, one can estimate the total mass of fissionable material built into the bomb if one also knows the energy release. That mass is the minimum gauge of how much each bomb releases, based on its own materials and internal fission reactions; to this fallout of the first type might or might not be added, and this junk might or might not far outmass the fissionables initially loaded. The degree of hazard each of hundreds of different types of radioisotope produced will vary, with its chemical properties, half-life and mode of radioactive decay. On the average, the initial danger is from intense radiation release that is dangerous from outside the body and this is mostly due to short half-life species that because of their rapid decay time are putting out radiation quite intensel. Over time, these will decay, generally into less intense, longer half-life species, all tending toward the atomic weight of iron, but the hazard then shifts from exposure to an external radiation field to ingesting isotopes which can take far longer to decay, but because they are radiating inside the body, even the weakest forms of decay are sure to do damage.

Now if the release of uranium--fissionable U-235 that is--at Chernobyl amounted to many tonnes, bearing in mind that most of what was released ascended in the smoke column and was distributed very widely over Europe and around the world--then we might have a fair sample of what war would do to an ecosystem, but it might be that the fire was put under control before any region would show a fraction of what doses of fallout would do to a targeted region, and clearly the effects of Chernobyl on the world as a whole was about equivalent at most to a few bombs being blown up, if that. We'd have to imagine thousands or tens of thousands of Chernobyl events to compare to what the 1984 arsenals of the Eastern and Western bloc would release if they were all expended in war.
 
I disagree. Chernobyl and Fukushima were accidents at nuclear plants with radiation releases. The P&S universe shows the mass usage of multi-megaton nuclear weapons, most of them will be airburst. Rivers will be poisoned, whole regions will be too. There is a very good chance that 'special features' will be used with such bombs once it goes to the free-for-all, making their radiation even more potent.
This will kill millions upon millions in truly horrific deaths coming from radiation with no evacuation, no treatment. The world would be poisoned. Humanity would survive but it will be hell for a long time in many places.
Accidents with releases from power stations do not compare to what would come from full-scale nuclear warfare.

I'm not trying to downplay destructiveness of a nuclear conflict - just that radiation has been proved to be much less damaging to health than was thought during 1980's. In Chernobyl case, tens, or even hundreds of thousands of premature deaths as well as sterility etc. were predicted. Results of careful studies have proved otherwise. That's due to problems with so called "Linear, no threshold" model on influence of radiation on humans.

Rivers would be poisoned by destroyed chemical plants etc. but in most cases this would be a problem which would self-correct as those plants would not be rebuilt for a long time. Airbursts, particularly those from fusion weapons, are less damaging in terms of radiation, by the way.

In case of Chernobyl, the material released was far more enduring than that from a nuclear bom.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Comparison_of_Chernobyl_and_other_radioactivity_releases

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Linear_no-threshold_model

Overall, I'd be inclined to think effects of radiation in long term would be indistinguishable from effects of malnutrition, lack of good public health care etc.
 
I'm not trying to downplay destructiveness of a nuclear conflict - just that radiation has been proved to be much less damaging to health than was thought during 1980's. In Chernobyl case, tens, or even hundreds of thousands of premature deaths as well as sterility etc. were predicted. Results of careful studies have proved otherwise. That's due to problems with so called "Linear, no threshold" model on influence of radiation on humans.

Rivers would be poisoned by destroyed chemical plants etc. but in most cases this would be a problem which would self-correct as those plants would not be rebuilt for a long time. Airbursts, particularly those from fusion weapons, are less damaging in terms of radiation, by the way.

In case of Chernobyl, the material released was far more enduring than that from a nuclear bom.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Comparison_of_Chernobyl_and_other_radioactivity_releases

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Linear_no-threshold_model

Overall, I'd be inclined to think effects of radiation in long term would be indistinguishable from effects of malnutrition, lack of good public health care etc.

While I'm not going to disagree with you on the relative absence of radiation exposure related cases from Chernobyl, there have been quite a few scientific studies over the course of the latter half of the 20th Century here in the states that showed definitive links between fallout exposure and cancer clusters. I would expect statistically significant upticks in many forms of aggressive cancer beginning after the exchange and running for probably forty to fifty years after the war, affecting the generation that was exposed to the fallout and the generation born just after that would be brought up in the ruins.

The classic case is the Utah communities that were down-wind from the Nevada Test Site. Following the first set of tests in 1951, large plumes of radioactive fallout traveled over southern Utah and exposed several, largely Mormon, communities to dangerous levels of fallout. The Atomic Energy Commission denied that the fallout plumes were considered dangerous. But, over the following thirty years the communities ended up being ground zero for significant clusters of radiation-linked cancers such as leukemia, and statistically-significant upticks in other aggressive cancers. There were also clusters of women who were either sterile or had extreme difficulties in conception. All were directly linked to fallout exposure from the A.E.C's testing at the Nevada Test Site. Those cancers were not treatable at the time and, even with modern cancer treatments, are still deadly sixty years on.

There were also significant clusters of cancers and premature deaths in Eastern Washington near the Hanford Nuclear Site, where the Army ran tests after Hiroshima and Nagasaki to track plumes of radiation emitted from Hanford to see how prevailing winds would effect radioactive particles. It was called the Green Run Test in 1949 and used iodine-131 released into the atmosphere. There were also significant releases of radioactivity into the Columbia River as well throughout most of the Hanford Site's early operational history. Again, statistically significant clusters of cancers down-river from Hanford have been uncovered and lawsuits have been lodged against the A.E.C and the U.S. government for knowingly exposing communities to potentially hazardous radiation without either prior consent or any form of disclosure.

There's also the continuing lawsuits lodged by survivors and survivors' families of servicemen exposed to near-deadly levels of radioactive fallout from testing in the South Pacific and the Nevada Test Site. Many ended up developing aggressive cancers and health complications that were linked directly to their exposure to fallout resulting from weapons testing. Many ended up developing liver, lung, or other deadly cancers as a direct result of their involvement in the military testing.

If we had the chance to look at the P&S universe thirty or forty years after the exchange, I'd expect similar patterns of cancer clusters and radiation-derived sterility and related health complications.

Utah Downwinders:

https://www.deseretnews.com/article/250011123/Toxic-Utah-Ghosts-in-the-wind.html
http://www.nytimes.com/1986/02/09/magazine/downwind-from-the-bomb.html?pagewanted=all
http://historytogo.utah.gov/utah_chapters/utah_today/radiationdeathanddeception.html
http://historytogo.utah.gov/utah_chapters/utah_today/nucleartestingandthedownwinders.html

Hanford Site:

http://www.nytimes.com/1990/07/13/us/radiation-peril-at-hanford-is-detailed.html
https://gizmodo.com/the-secret-1949-radiation-experiment-that-contaminated-1707748721
https://www.washingtonpost.com/arch...cbb-9958-6ca415fbc785/?utm_term=.9c753b3101ea [long article about the Hanford Site and downriver/downwind community radiation exposure]

Nuclear Testing Veterans:

https://www.nytimes.com/2016/05/30/us/veterans-of-atomic-test-blasts-no-warning-and-late-amends.html [Fantastic 13 minute documentary also included in article]
http://www.oregonlive.com/today/index.ssf/2016/07/atomic_veterans_battle_against.html
 
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Btw, that's not even including downwind communities near Semipalatinsk in Kazakhstan, which were exposed to radioactive fallout levels greater than Chernobyl following Soviet open-air testing in the mid-1950s. They've also had parallel experiences of statistically-significant clusters of cancers, health complications, sterility, and other radiation-related illnesses:

https://www.carnegie.org/news/artic...ng-the-legacy-of-nuclear-tests-in-kazakhstan/
https://www.newscientist.com/articl...r-up-of-nuclear-fallout-worse-than-chernobyl/
https://io9.gizmodo.com/5988266/the-tragic-story-of-the-semipalatinsk-nuclear-test-site
[Euronews report on lingering effects of radiation on local community residents]
https://www.ucis.pitt.edu/nceeer/2005_818_16_Werner.pdf [Long study entitled: "Unraveling the Secrets of the Past: Contested Versions of Nuclear Testing in the Soviet Republic of Kazakhstan"]
 
While I'm not going to disagree with you on the relative absence of radiation exposure related cases from Chernobyl, there have been quite a few scientific studies over the course of the latter half of the 20th Century here in the states that showed definitive links between fallout exposure and cancer clusters. I would expect statistically significant upticks in many forms of aggressive cancer beginning after the exchange and running for probably forty to fifty years after the war, affecting the generation that was exposed to the fallout and the generation born just after that would be brought up in the ruins.

Yes, I'm not trying to whitewash radiation issue. Just that the 1980's predictions on effects of radiation were not (fortunately) correct. Without doubt radiation would cause problems - particularly in areas downwind of ground bursts. But I would guesstimate this would be lost on all the other destruction in post-war world. Those, whose immune system was weakened by radiation, for example, would end up victims for various contagious diseases etc. The cases in Utah or even in Kazakhstan have happened in context of a working public healthcare system and no malnutrition, for example.
 
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