ivfl, you're absolutely right about discipline as a key factor; however you should remember what Jan or Jack already said: if the Army or the State will assure to you food and shelter, you will be less sensible to desert, especially if you know for sure that your hometown is gone forever.
Protect and Survive: A Timeline
- Thread starter Macragge1
- Start date
It depends just how much food is available in the long term,and if anyone is willing to believe what is being officially said.Rumours would spread quickly and few might be willing to believe anything they hear from some guy in a bunker who was unable to prevent this in the first place.Many would say that while the politicians are hiding they suffer with little to no help.There is the added problem of no Marshall plan for Europe this time,with the US pretty much gone.
Again, you're right but to give you more sounded hypotesis about Italy I need more informations about targets hit by WP or Yugos; maybe someday our Swiss mission will leak out to us at least something about attacks on Northern part of country
The colloquial term 'fag' for homosexual does not exist in the UK. Here is means cigarette.
Brits would use different terms of abuse, which I shall not repeat here.
Brits would use different terms of abuse, which I shall not repeat here.
Thank you, Jan, I didn't know that "fag" was an AE exclusive
OT and BTW: you're doin' a great job on TLW, I hope my laptop will return soon
Macragge1
Banned
Happy Easter everybody!
First of all, I'm glad to see Jack's back; I admit I've feared that one of our finest writer could have orphaned us of P&S
I've fallen behind with the installments, so forgive me if I go back with chapters.
Very funny reference to "time fans found themselves unable to phone the speaking clock"; it made me LOL, it's probably the last thing I've thought in an imminent war situation, but time fans need love too. More seriously I understand all the government's fuzz about somenthing not so exciting as a microscopic phone grid: something is always better than nothing, especially when you have to persuade your citizens that you're just not watchin' them dying by radiation sickness or forced labour.
Glad you're still enjoying it; P&S is still very much alive - just a case of finding time to get updates out these days.
My tongue was very firmly in my cheek when talking about the speaking clock; it's probably testament to my having had the internet etc for most of my lifetime, but the speaking clock has always seemed very strange and pointless to me. Still, I thought it was interesting that the war warning system used the same line as it, so I decided to throw it in.
You're absolutely right in suggesting that, though the actual result of this action is minimal, it's a means for the government to try and show that they're doing something other than shoot looters etcetera.
How on the earth you can obtain a group suicide with a claw hammer? You need a hell of a ricochet...
Goodbye President Pretorious, I wonder what will happen to the refugees, BTW.
Belgian Government alive, that's kinda surprise: I've thought that BeNeLux has become a wasteland; probably they've already formed a Flemish and a Waloons party inside the bunker.
In response to your first question - messily. Still, madness and isolation can have some nasty effects upon people.
The refugees happened to be on the Pretorious at the time, which makes what will happen to them now something of a closed question...
BeNeLux is looking pretty wasteland, but even there there's a good chance of survival (at least in the short-term) if you get enough tons of rock between you and the mushroom clouds.
Belgium always strikes me as one of those countries that would be more likely to split up after a big catastrophe (as opposed to the USA balkanising into the Aztlan Republic, Cascadia, etc etc
) given that a lot of them seem intent on splitting up even when everything's going pretty well.Glad you found it interesting. The trains thing, again, is some parts progress and some parts propaganda. Obviously getting any form of infrastructure up and running is a good sign but, as the Constable says, it's little more than 80-odd miles of railway with irregular, militarised service.
Very pleased indeed that you liked that little snippet; it was nice to go out on a limb and do something slightly different. It was literally a stream-of-consciousness as well - just started hitting the keys and followed where I was going.
We'll find out who our 'visitors' are soon enough...
Small nitpick: It should be "Townsend Thoresen", but we are in P&Sverse who cares about spelling
Finally an answer for the flash over the Hebrids, thank you!
What exactly means "fags"? Maybe cigarettes? I ask you because beside that meaning I knew that fag was a very unpolite nick for "homosexual"...
Good performance by our guys on the ship, the thugs perhaps thought to be still in the good ol' days of compassionate law enforcement by socials services.
Apalling show of force by RN; that's a damn cursory way to sedate a riot
As always, keep on Jack!
Nitpick noted; I'll go back and sort that.
The confusion between 'Russian' and 'Soviet' is a mistake on Whitelaw's part, but one that's been fairly common over the years. Certainly during the Second World War, Churchill etc. preferred the term 'Russian' (even though it ignores a whole bunch of peoples) because it smoothed over the fact that we were sided with communists; this sort of got held over during the Cold War - a lot of official documents carry on this mistake, it seems.
'Fag' is English slang for 'cigarettes', yeah.
The riot on the ship was, in fact, not the reason the Navy turned up; it had been planned all along - a quick, cheap way of getting rid of useless mouths; the fact that the prisoners were rioting merely made things messier. Still, as you say, it's very harsh stuff.
Thanks for the interest, and I promise the next update will come soon!
Mario's pretty much hit the nail on the head about the Mafia better than I could hope to; that's not to say that locally (espec. in rural areas), mafiosi might be well armed enough to gain small scale, de facto power, but a Mob state is unfeasible for the reasons Mr. Rossi describes; even in the small pockets the Mafia do try and get some influence, they're going to be hard pressed to keep it when what's left of the Italian Military turns up.
With regards to that, Mario and Jan have explained well; what's left of govt. can't buy loyalty with money, but they can certainly blackmail it with food/threats etc.
You're absolutely right in saying that Europe's last great apocalypse, the Great Plague, led to great upheaval and peasant revolts. In this scenario, in 1984, however, the nature of a 'peasant revolt' is somewhat different.
In the Middle Ages, weaponry was much more 'democratic'. A sword is a sword, for example - anyone can make one, anyone can use one. Therefore, any rebels could find themselves pretty much as well armed as the authorities they sought to overthrow. There wasn't even that big a discrepancy in training, given that the majority of the ruler's forces were just peasants themselves that happened to be indentured by the king (or whoever). The only real 'technological) advantage that the authorities could bring to bear was heavy cavalry, and even this wasn't too hard to deal with once you made pikes and stuff.
In the modern era, there's a much larger discrepancy in power available. It's all well and good sharpening a stick in order to stop a galloping horse; the man on the street will find it much harder to craft something that'll stop an M60 MBT, much less an Agusta gunship. Even in pure infantry terms, a modern 'peasant' will be hard pressed to match the training and the equipment (assault rifle, grenades, radio, camouflage, night vision etc etc) that the most basic soldier has. Therefore, for better or for worse, 'peasant uprisings' these days are up against some pretty bad odds.
This isn't to say that such a thing is impossible, however - one can get a long way with determination and some Kalashnikovs and molotov cocktails. This is partially being proven right now in Libya; an armed rabble, effectively, is defeating the military of the state. Note however, that this is largely down to NATO intervention levelling the playing field by turning all of Gaddafi's tanks/jets/whatever into charcoal. Before this, we can see that well-motivated rebels in pick up trucks with shotguns were no match even for a pretty second-tier air force and army.
You've raised some interesting points though, ivfl, and I'm very glad that you're taking such an interest in the timeline.
'Fag' is certainly an alien term in the UK, being an Americanism, but it's still pretty common (around here, at least) due to its prevalence in US Films, Video Games, Music etc etc. Indeed, round these parts, I think it's probably surpassed home-grown slurs as the bigot's weapon of choice, but whatever. It's still used to mean cigarette (espec. in the South; up in Newcastle for example, one smokes 'tabs') as well, which leads to all sorts of tired American jokes about going to London and being appalled when someone offers them a fag.
For those who are interested, the Detective and the Deputy, now that I think about it, use a pretty varied selection of homophobic slurs against one another - all though they're doing it in good fun - which, again, for better or worse, is a pretty accurate facsimile of some conversations round here.
Wheew - speaking clocks, Mafia states, a little essay on 'democratic weapons' and then a refresher course on homophobia. Didn't expect to type all that out when I clicked reply! It's good though - great to get comments keeping me on my toes.
Found out today that 'fag' is a common term for Gay people in Samoa. Might be all laid back with a crime rate of almost nil, but they're not as tolerant as us when it comes to LGBT issues.
Fag is the most comonly used slang term for a cigarette in this part of the world. People also these days talk about going outside for a smoke.
Wouldn't be surprised if the trains run better to time now. However I suspect they'll use the Mussolini solution to that (guess how he made the trains run on time?).
For a country to balkanize you need a strong regional identity that is seen as being more important than the national identity. That does not really exist in the USA - people might be New Englanders, Texans, or Californians, but they they think of themselves as Americans. Even in the UK there are still enough people in England, Scotland, Wales and NI who think of themselves as English and British, or Scots and British etc to prevent the UK breaking-up.
Belgium, OTOH, is perhaps a case of where a country is just slightly artificial. But since I'm not Belgian I can't say for sure.
I think in Libya part of what we're seeing is that the remaining loyalist troops are just as poorly trained as the rebels, who we have to remember include quite a few regulars who defected. The Libyan Army has never really been well trained, or equipped since the Colonel took over, the real power was with the People's Militia and the foreign mercs.
Fag is the most comonly used slang term for a cigarette in this part of the world. People also these days talk about going outside for a smoke.
Wouldn't be surprised if the trains run better to time now. However I suspect they'll use the Mussolini solution to that (guess how he made the trains run on time?).
For a country to balkanize you need a strong regional identity that is seen as being more important than the national identity. That does not really exist in the USA - people might be New Englanders, Texans, or Californians, but they they think of themselves as Americans. Even in the UK there are still enough people in England, Scotland, Wales and NI who think of themselves as English and British, or Scots and British etc to prevent the UK breaking-up.
Belgium, OTOH, is perhaps a case of where a country is just slightly artificial. But since I'm not Belgian I can't say for sure.
I think in Libya part of what we're seeing is that the remaining loyalist troops are just as poorly trained as the rebels, who we have to remember include quite a few regulars who defected. The Libyan Army has never really been well trained, or equipped since the Colonel took over, the real power was with the People's Militia and the foreign mercs.
Macragge1
Banned
Yeah, I saw that too; cringeing a little even if she was perfectly well meaning. Good show; really enjoyed it - they all seemed like decent people too.
Wouldn't be surprised if the trains run better to time now. However I suspect they'll use the Mussolini solution to that (guess how he made the trains run on time?).
Given that there's like one train every few days, and they're army controlled, doesn't seem too optimistic.
The Musso story is that they'd have a soldier and two drivers in the cab, isn't it? If the first driver runs late, the soldier shoots him and the second one is encouraged to restore punctuality.
Very true on both points.
The Mussolini solution was to alter the timetables so that the trains appeared to run on time, even if they didn't. I think that ScotRail follows a same approach.
I agree that Police Academy UK was an excellent programme, I'm sorry to have missed ep. 1. It's always interesting to see our institutions through the prism of outsiders. It was good to see that they all took something useful away with them for their own forces, but I think that the Samoan officer benefited the most, I do hope she achieves her ambition and that Samoan attitudes to female officers changes because of what she did and saw in the UK.
I agree that Police Academy UK was an excellent programme, I'm sorry to have missed ep. 1. It's always interesting to see our institutions through the prism of outsiders. It was good to see that they all took something useful away with them for their own forces, but I think that the Samoan officer benefited the most, I do hope she achieves her ambition and that Samoan attitudes to female officers changes because of what she did and saw in the UK.
On a completely different tangent, someone should make a TVTropes page for this timeline. Look To The west has one after all.
Italy has a rather strong regional identity between the North and the South, especially now with the North being a nuclear wasteland, there might be a chance that the old kingdom(now republic) of the two Sicilies would be established.
Also all those separatist factions that exist are going to have a field day, if they survived the exchange or evaded repression during the countdown to war; the Basques can now be independent for example, Laos would fall apart definitely, you know Vietnam (who was backing up the Laos gov) got several nukes from both sides.
Also all those separatist factions that exist are going to have a field day, if they survived the exchange or evaded repression during the countdown to war; the Basques can now be independent for example, Laos would fall apart definitely, you know Vietnam (who was backing up the Laos gov) got several nukes from both sides.
Macragge1
Banned
This would be super-cool; many points to anyone who knows how that sort thing works and gets it up.
This might be something of interest,I'm not sure if its 100% accurate but the 1990 FEMA map for predicted fallout patterns in the US is to say the least chilling, http://www.ki4u.com/webpal/d_resources/list.htm scroll down to see the map,the red zone more or less dead.The fallout patterns might end up as a way for splitting countries apart.Since no one would dare cross a hot zone like that communities might end up cut off from one another.
Again, an awesome update from Macragge!
Don't forget that France is a large country, while the northeast will be in a poor condition, the western seaboard will be fine and likely almost unscathed in places.
The loss of Paris will be a huge problem as I have said before, since it might that command and control will be problematic for a while. But if most prefects have survived on a local level (and they likely have in most départements), I can easily see them being granted emergency powers in order to get things up and running.
I dunno...while I agree that some of France might escape in relatively good condition, you have to remember that the French retained their own considerable nuclear capability, and at the time of the war would've had several nuclear bomber, submarine and missile bases that would surely have been hit, if nothing else;
- Luxueil Air Base, in Franche-Comte (French/Swiss border for those who don't know);
- Istres-Le Tube AB, near Marseille;
- Toulon AB, (nuke storage);
- Tours would get it, as it has a nuke component production site;
- The Centre de Etude de Valduc in Burgundy (nuke production & assembly);
- CESTA, nuclear weapons R&D, in Aquitaine;
- Brest, having a nuclear sub base, would be a big target;
- The French IRBM silos in Vaucluse (SE France) would doubtless get hammered;
- Landivisiau Naval AB in Brittany (land station for nuke-armed Navy planes).
Anyone - feel free to correct me if I got those sites wrong or if I'm otherwise full of it.
That said, even those targets do leave large areas intact (if irradiated), if Paris were the only city to be targeted as such. So...better than the UK, but not exactly "unscathed". Methinks this TL is a bit kinder to France than it'd have been if I wrote it.
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http://tvtropes.org/pmwiki/pmwiki.php/Main/ProtectAndSurviveATimeline
Anyone who wants to edit it feel free.
Andristan, while it's true that Italy has always had strong local identities (in some Regioni there are historical rivalries even among the same Provincia) you have to remember that secessionism as (a rather childish) solution to Questione meridionale arose in the mainstream Italian politicsonly in the 90s; it was pushed up mainly by Lega Nord in a very particular context (End of Cold War, irreversible crisis of former Prima Repubblica political system, unsustainability of a welfare state mostly directed to the South, killings and bombings by a Mafia perceived only as "southern" problem...). So I see as very unlikely outcome of a massive nuclear WWIII-related attack on the whole country a restoration of an old Austrian-supported kingdom
.About other secessionisms: in the P&Sverse seems to be a matter of fact that powers-that-be are not so friendly toward extemporaneous or organized challengers to their authority; as already said about Mafia, Basques could bitterly find out that a "democratic" but unrestrained Ejército de Tierra armoured brigade with artillery support is a much worst enemy than a Francisco Franco's "black ops" commando.
Again, an awesome update from Macragge!
Don't forget that France is a large country, while the northeast will be in a poor condition, the western seaboard will be fine and likely almost unscathed in places.
The loss of Paris will be a huge problem as I have said before, since it might that command and control will be problematic for a while. But if most prefects have survived on a local level (and they likely have in most départements), I can easily see them being granted emergency powers in order to get things up and running.
I dunno...while I agree that some of France might escape in relatively good condition, you have to remember that the French retained their own considerable nuclear capability, and at the time of the war would've had several nuclear bomber, submarine and missile bases that would surely have been hit, if nothing else;
- Luxueil Air Base, in Franche-Comte (French/Swiss border for those who don't know);
- Istres-Le Tube AB, near Marseille;
- Toulon AB, (nuke storage);
- Tours would get it, as it has a nuke component production site;
- The Centre de Etude de Valduc in Burgundy (nuke production & assembly);
- CESTA, nuclear weapons R&D, in Aquitaine;
- Brest, having a nuclear sub base, would be a big target;
- The French IRBM silos in Vaucluse (SE France) would doubtless get hammered;
- Landivisiau Naval AB in Brittany (land station for nuke-armed Navy planes).
Anyone - feel free to correct me if I got those sites wrong or if I'm otherwise full of it.
That said, even those targets do leave large areas intact (if irradiated), if Paris were the only city to be targeted as such. So...better than the UK, but not exactly "unscathed". Methinks this TL is a bit kinder to France than it'd have been if I wrote it.
Jason, this is a map I've made some months ago for France; it includes targets identified by Whitelaw in the early days after the Exchange and others suggested by Dunois itself
Here's a map with your suggestions:
One thing we have to remember is that peacetime norms of how government's deal with separatists is now how they will deal with them now. In peacetime they are rival political parties, or pressure groups and are treated accordingly. That's not going to be the case in the post-nuclear apocalypse world.
What do you think would happen if some surviving members of SNP, or Plaid Cymru decide to try and set up an independent Scotland and Wales? They'll get to meet Mr. Chieftain tank and all his heavily armed friends.
That's going to be the same for France, Spain and Italy.
Central governments are not going to tolerate any attempt to break-away from the centre. Plus for a lot of places that might like to break-away if they want to keep on eating they need to stay part of the country they belong to.
What do you think would happen if some surviving members of SNP, or Plaid Cymru decide to try and set up an independent Scotland and Wales? They'll get to meet Mr. Chieftain tank and all his heavily armed friends.
That's going to be the same for France, Spain and Italy.
Central governments are not going to tolerate any attempt to break-away from the centre. Plus for a lot of places that might like to break-away if they want to keep on eating they need to stay part of the country they belong to.
Breakaway attempts depend also on how much of the army is still left.If you have at most a brigade size force of traumatised conscripts who saw the worst of the war its unlikely they could do much of anything against even rag-tag separatists.So basically it boils down to how good where the soviets at wiping out NATO forces.If the soviets followed the strategy of everything and anyone that can be nuked is nuked then separatism is a real probability.Somehow Great Britain might not be a good example,while a nuclear power being cut off from direct contact with the mainland the soviets might have said we wont nuke it off the face of the earth.France in 1984 had a similar sized nuclear arsenal to Britain but a conscript based army so somewhat bigger,plus french forces would have arrived faster in Germany then british units.So the french might have ended up with more nukes landing on them and consequently their surviving force is smaller.As I said it boils down to what is left of the army,if next to nothing survived like in West Germany a balkanised future is likely,if there is still a substantial force maybe not.