Prospects for the Ming without the Japanese invasion

Okay, let's say for whatever reason the Toyotomi Japan does not invade Korea in the 1590s. These wars substantially weakened the Ming Dynasty and allowed the Manchus to invade. Without the invasions, the Ming dynasty would not be weakened (both financially and otherwise) and the Manchusu would probably not invade as they did IOTL.

What would the effects of this be? Would Ming survive longer? Might the dynasty be eventually brought down, by a Shun-style rebellion? What would happen had the Japanese not invaded?
 
A much more interesting side-effect of no Japanese Invasions is that it doesn't weaken the Japanese government as in OTL, so the country will stay in contact with the outside world instead of isolating and stagnation.
 
I'm not so sure. It's possible; but the root causes of the Ming failure are still there.

That is true, but the invasions did take a toll on the Ming which led to other things which led to the Jurchen invasion. I know it wouldn't allow the Ming to survive forever, but might they be better able to resist the Jurchen invasion if the war hadn't weakened them?
 
That is true, but the invasions did take a toll on the Ming which led to other things which led to the Jurchen invasion. I know it wouldn't allow the Ming to survive forever, but might they be better able to resist the Jurchen invasion if the war hadn't weakened them?

Well I'm wondering about something else. Can we talk about the chance of the Shun Dynasty surviving ? :)
 
Well I'm wondering about something else. Can we talk about the chance of the Shun Dynasty surviving ? :)

If Li Zicheng defeats the Jurchens in May 1644 (that defeat forced him to retreat from Beijing) and manages to hold his empire in the face of future Jurchen attacks, I think the prospect of a surviving Shun are a lot better.
 
What happens with the Manchurians, if they fail to conquer China?

if Nurhaci dies in his campaign, maybe the Jurchens fall apart again, eventually dominated by either the Mongols, Russians, or Chinese (Ming / Shun / new dynasty).
 
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