That would be an interesting way to establish a semi-realistic origin story for the Draka. Rather than beginning primarily as a refuge for American Loyalists, they are simply British convicts.
I'm making a map about if the South African penal colonies were established, then were combined into one colony.
I remember Alex Richard’s and Reagent Short timeline https://www.alternatehistory.com/forum/threads/boers-and-griquas-and-prisoners-oh-my-a-tliad-collaborative-motm-tl.320743/
It had a federal (in a very messy way) South Africa that was settled to the extent of Australia IRL by brits (while Australia is french ITTL), I think with such a POD you wouldn’t really be able to have a draka as the settler population wouldn’t be that big, just Australia sized (although it would likely have overwhelming influence in Southern Africa), also the whole situation and population and history of South Africa makes the establishment of a stable and united country harder than Australia IMO
Puritans somehow going to the cape, or a French colony in the cape settled by Hugenots both seem like they would be early enough and have the settler popualtion necessary to create a semi-draka that could annexes significant part of Southern Africa while having a settler population above the hundred million today.
There’s also the Luso-Draka, or Brazil-in-Southern-Africa, that can achieve similar results but likely requires a POD in the 1490s