Oct 42-Nov 43
This is not going to be a fancy TL or even a particularly high quality one. Rather, it is going to tease out how Germany would fare if they rolled “sixes” (or “ones” if it is Axis and Allies) after the US is in the war.
The POD is Hitler gets bit by his dog after playing too rough and dies of sepsis. (The King of Greece was bit by his monkey and died about 20 years before, so this is a legit POD).
To avoid an ASB, I will have the Germans get defeated at Stalingrad as it is unlikely they are going to simply retreat when they “almost won,” even amidst general chaos. This POD occurs in October 1942, before the Soviet counteroffensive. Herman Goering wins a short power struggle, but he is toothless and the military generally runs things. Goering wants peace, but never at terms the West and East (and military) are willing to accept.
Hence, as this situation unfolds, the German strategy is primarily focused on “buying time” as they wait for enough jets and submarines to “turn the tide” which will never turn. Strategy is based upon husbanding soldiers and keeping allies in the war. I will pull “stunts” which do not defy the laws of physics but help prolong the war as much possible. We will just have to handwave these away and “go with it” to make it fun. Here we go:
Oct 42-Jan 43: The Time of Troubles
After Hitler’s untimely death, general chaos existed in Germany. This chaos was blamed for sudden German setbacks in Stalingrad, North Africa, and the opening of a corridor to Leningrad. Goering, afraid of being couped and replaced by some military-puppet, did as he was told. Germany withdrew from the Caucasus (before they drilled any precious oil) to the Kerch peninsula and the surrounding areas with the “hope” an offensive can be resumed in 1943. The sixth army and 4th panzer army executed a “break out,” but only a third of their personnel ever made it back to German lines. Nearly all heavy equipment was lost. Last second Luftwaffe air raids on Baku and Grozny were conducted, but rather haphazardly. Nevertheless, the damage done was more than anyone anticipated, due to the oil saturated soil. Russian oil production was significantly shut down for six weeks as they took out fires and rebuilt their damaged facilities.
Italian, Romanian, and Hungarian forces were shattered and they withdrew almost all forces back to their home countries. Not wanting to lose his allies, Goering permitted this. Nevertheless, the Romanians maintained occupational forces in Odessa, Moldova, and parts of Ukraine.
Due to near-political anarchy after Hitler’s death, a full withdrawal from Vichy North Africa took place and German/Italian forces are repositioned to help buttress defenses in Crete, the Dodecanese, Greece, and Sicily. Stalin demanded a second front to be opened in France in 1943. The Germans, realizing their allies may jump ship as the war is beginning to turn against them, immediately worked on having significant reserves within Germany itself. This not only maintained the specter of a complete military takeover of the nation (making Goering effectively a puppet), it made it possible to funnel men to wherever the Western Allies may open a front next as well as placed the gun at the head of junior Axis partners encouraging them not to jump ship.
In a most unanticipated move, the Office of the Four Year Plan gave Goering the recommendation liberalize economic policy in the east due to the collective farm/pillage economy being incredibly inefficient at growing crops. So, in a bid to isolate his Balkan allies even more so and squeeze them firmer within Germany’s grasp, Goering guaranteed Western Ukrainian independence to Stepan Bandera and the Ukrainian Insurgent Army. Bandera and his ilk were given free reign to kill their political enemies and run the country. In exchange for military training and weapons, they agree to export food stuffs to Germany and permit German investment in industry and mining concerns.
Most dastardly, Bandera also permitted the expulsion of political and racial undesirables, needed for Germany’s slave-labor economy. By April 1943, Bandera adeptly subdued his opposition, and though there are still partisans, he quickly raises with German support a million-man army by the end of the year. Agricultural production increases significantly. A similar movement is not contemplated in Belarus, eastern Ukraine, and occupied Russia, due to the German economy being dependent on slave labor and there being no politically reliable group of people to entrust authority to.
Feb 43-June 43: The ATL “Kursk”
As German forces rushed to withdraw from quantitatively superior and surprisingly adept Soviet armies in the winter of 42-43, the Soviets over-extended themselves. A significant battle occurred at Kharkov, and due to significant German reserves the city never changed hands. This saved the Soviets a bloodying they otherwise received in OTL, but it permitted further German exploitation of natural resources in these areas.
The success of Goering’s program in Ukraine led to its expansion amongst the Baltic states with tepid support from the German Army. This effectively exhausted whatever political capital he had to act on his own initiative. An “anti-communist” treaty is signed between these states, but it is more of a propaganda coup than anything. Instead of ensuring mutual defense of its members, it simply makes clear that the Germans will offer material support to nations “liberated” from the Communist yoke. It was essentially “everyone for themselves.” Not surprisingly, Poland is left out.
With no Kursk being contemplated, significant resources were put into manning the Panther-Wontan line, due to it appearing the Soviets had the initiative, even after third Kharkov. IOTL, in July 1943 there were about 3.9 million Axis members facing off to about 6.8 million Soviets. By June 1943, this number is similar but slightly more in the Axis favor: 4.1 million to about 6.9 million Soviets. While the military wanted to retain Eastern Ukraine, significant peace feelers were sent out to Stalin to sacrifice East Ukraine, Smolensk, and the Rhzev salient (which was not withdrawn ITTL due to a lack of utter catastrophe in Stalingrad). Investing in a defense-line west of these areas hence made sense, being that the Soviets accepting a peace treaty was considered possible.
The Soviets, due to their significant material superiority, held a significant offensive in Rhzev in May 1943. The goal was to pinch of the salient and capture a significant portion AGC. The stakes for the Germans were huge, as an impressive showing a Rhzev was important in order to give the perception to its allies that it had solid footing in the East. Further, it would give Germany a “piece” to play in making peace with the Soviets along a new border at the Panther-Wotan line.
The battle was incredible in its ferocity. German reinforcements, ensured the salient had nearly 900,000 men. The Soviet offensive in this area was predictable and it was situated against the most heavily defended area on Earth, with layers of defensive lines, mine fields, Panzer battalions readied to respond to break throughs, and a significantly growing number of Tiger I and Elefant tank destroyers—both of which proved devastating in prepared defensive grounds thanks to their 88 mm guns. They were able to knock out enemy formations before they can even be reached. Germany also enjoyed local air superiority and muddy terrain, helping them as the defender. Stalin, who had an additional five military fronts in reserve, threw these into the battle when the initiative was first lost. Sheer numerical superiority looked like it would win a day. It was a close contest and the Germans nearly lost, but the Soviets at this juncture had most of their experienced personnel in Ukraine and so their armies were too green and did not have the established doctrine to break through such prepared defenders. Contrariwise, the German military in 1943 was man-for-man the most experienced in the world and with a suitable defense, was able to punch far above its weight. Stalin called of the offensive not long before the Germans were seriously contemplating withdrawing.
If Stalin was a little more audacious and reckless, he could have forced a general German collapse. But, he lost his nerve. Why? The Soviets anticipated the Wallies were soon to open a front elsewhere and wanted to maintain enough forces for a significant offensive predicated upon liberating Eastern Ukraine. It was felt continuing further would have compromised this follow-up offensive.
July 43 – Nov 43: The lost summer
Up until this point of the war, the German population had received news of some victorious summer offensive. While there was some popular anticipation of this, the German military neither had the fuel nor the personnel to pull this off, even at the local level. The Battle in Rhzev had significantly attrited resources they could not replace.
Manstein, the Field Marshall entrusted with AGS, boasted that he could withdraw and counter-attack any Soviet offensive in the South. This “backhand blow” would allegedly convince the Soviets after Rhzev that they qualitatively could never defeat the Axis. It was hoped that if Germany can merely “hold the line” against the Allies, a peace deal can be struck—giving eastern Ukraine and western Russian would be “more than generous” in exchange for peace. This was simply residual victory disease that did not adequately contemplate the numerically inferior position Germany still was in, despite their victory at Rhzev.
With the increasing success of the Allied bombing campaign, the Luftwaffe had nearly switched to an entirely defensive posture—something that helped improve the German resource situation slightly ITTL compared to OTL. In any event, in July 1943, the Allies struck Sicily and easily overwhelmed the Axis, who quickly withdrawn. Air and naval superiority made any Axis attempt to maintain the island impossible. The Italians nearly exited the war, but Mussolini barely maintained power. Germans reserves rushing to Italy’s defense ensured this and Mussolini would rule until the end of the war.
What followed would be both a major victory and significant defeat for the Allies. The Soviet offensive against Kharkov in the end of August was unstoppable. On the open steppe, the “endless” supply of Soviet mechanized corps overwhelmed and quickly surrounded Kharkov. Manstein sprung into action and was seriously repulsed, both sides experiencing similar losses. Instead of blunting the Soviet spear, the Soviets kept pushing until they reached the Dnieper by late November 1943. With land to trade in exchange for losing men, the Germans were executing a fighting withdrawal.
Attempts at peace against the Soviets failed and the Rhzev salient was withdrawn in order to strengthen the Panther-Wotan line and prevent a more serious disaster then what happened in eastern Ukraine. This actually shocked the average Soviet, as the reputation for “Summer Germans” led many to believe the Germans had husbanded a significant force for a coup de main on Moscow itself. This belief had tied down significant Russian reserves, but the Soviet army was so big at this point, it made no significant difference to their overall operations. Their reserves, though defensive, were perceived by the Germans as an actual attacking force—hence hastening their withdrawal.
In Italy, the Wallies were surprised by the ferocity of the Axis defenders when they attacked southern Italy in 1943. In fact, they were repulsed and driven into the ocean (something that nearly happened IOTL). ITTL, the real difference maker was significantly larger Luftwaffe and Italian air force support (due to Italy staying in the war and no Kursk disaster as in IOTL) and with the help of guided bombs, Italian naval support (which was more of a death ride, but it served its purpose), as well as immense local superiority on the ground the Wallies could not prevail. Allied attempts to “island hop” in the Dodecanese also resulted in failure.
This proved to the Wallies that any amphibious attack on France would require the complete destruction of the Luftwaffe and the transportation network in order to prevent such a disaster from happening ever again. Ironically, if a naval invasion was re-attempted sometime in the winter (akin to the Anzio landings) there was a chance it could have succeeded, as every month that passed the quality of German forces in the theater degraded. However, the shock defeat in Italy made the Wallies unable to stomach such an maneuver unless chances for success were 100 percent. In October and November Sardinia and Corsica were occupied. This was the extent of success the Wallies enjoyed in the Mediterranean in 1943.
The POD is Hitler gets bit by his dog after playing too rough and dies of sepsis. (The King of Greece was bit by his monkey and died about 20 years before, so this is a legit POD).
To avoid an ASB, I will have the Germans get defeated at Stalingrad as it is unlikely they are going to simply retreat when they “almost won,” even amidst general chaos. This POD occurs in October 1942, before the Soviet counteroffensive. Herman Goering wins a short power struggle, but he is toothless and the military generally runs things. Goering wants peace, but never at terms the West and East (and military) are willing to accept.
Hence, as this situation unfolds, the German strategy is primarily focused on “buying time” as they wait for enough jets and submarines to “turn the tide” which will never turn. Strategy is based upon husbanding soldiers and keeping allies in the war. I will pull “stunts” which do not defy the laws of physics but help prolong the war as much possible. We will just have to handwave these away and “go with it” to make it fun. Here we go:
Oct 42-Jan 43: The Time of Troubles
After Hitler’s untimely death, general chaos existed in Germany. This chaos was blamed for sudden German setbacks in Stalingrad, North Africa, and the opening of a corridor to Leningrad. Goering, afraid of being couped and replaced by some military-puppet, did as he was told. Germany withdrew from the Caucasus (before they drilled any precious oil) to the Kerch peninsula and the surrounding areas with the “hope” an offensive can be resumed in 1943. The sixth army and 4th panzer army executed a “break out,” but only a third of their personnel ever made it back to German lines. Nearly all heavy equipment was lost. Last second Luftwaffe air raids on Baku and Grozny were conducted, but rather haphazardly. Nevertheless, the damage done was more than anyone anticipated, due to the oil saturated soil. Russian oil production was significantly shut down for six weeks as they took out fires and rebuilt their damaged facilities.
Italian, Romanian, and Hungarian forces were shattered and they withdrew almost all forces back to their home countries. Not wanting to lose his allies, Goering permitted this. Nevertheless, the Romanians maintained occupational forces in Odessa, Moldova, and parts of Ukraine.
Due to near-political anarchy after Hitler’s death, a full withdrawal from Vichy North Africa took place and German/Italian forces are repositioned to help buttress defenses in Crete, the Dodecanese, Greece, and Sicily. Stalin demanded a second front to be opened in France in 1943. The Germans, realizing their allies may jump ship as the war is beginning to turn against them, immediately worked on having significant reserves within Germany itself. This not only maintained the specter of a complete military takeover of the nation (making Goering effectively a puppet), it made it possible to funnel men to wherever the Western Allies may open a front next as well as placed the gun at the head of junior Axis partners encouraging them not to jump ship.
In a most unanticipated move, the Office of the Four Year Plan gave Goering the recommendation liberalize economic policy in the east due to the collective farm/pillage economy being incredibly inefficient at growing crops. So, in a bid to isolate his Balkan allies even more so and squeeze them firmer within Germany’s grasp, Goering guaranteed Western Ukrainian independence to Stepan Bandera and the Ukrainian Insurgent Army. Bandera and his ilk were given free reign to kill their political enemies and run the country. In exchange for military training and weapons, they agree to export food stuffs to Germany and permit German investment in industry and mining concerns.
Most dastardly, Bandera also permitted the expulsion of political and racial undesirables, needed for Germany’s slave-labor economy. By April 1943, Bandera adeptly subdued his opposition, and though there are still partisans, he quickly raises with German support a million-man army by the end of the year. Agricultural production increases significantly. A similar movement is not contemplated in Belarus, eastern Ukraine, and occupied Russia, due to the German economy being dependent on slave labor and there being no politically reliable group of people to entrust authority to.
Feb 43-June 43: The ATL “Kursk”
As German forces rushed to withdraw from quantitatively superior and surprisingly adept Soviet armies in the winter of 42-43, the Soviets over-extended themselves. A significant battle occurred at Kharkov, and due to significant German reserves the city never changed hands. This saved the Soviets a bloodying they otherwise received in OTL, but it permitted further German exploitation of natural resources in these areas.
The success of Goering’s program in Ukraine led to its expansion amongst the Baltic states with tepid support from the German Army. This effectively exhausted whatever political capital he had to act on his own initiative. An “anti-communist” treaty is signed between these states, but it is more of a propaganda coup than anything. Instead of ensuring mutual defense of its members, it simply makes clear that the Germans will offer material support to nations “liberated” from the Communist yoke. It was essentially “everyone for themselves.” Not surprisingly, Poland is left out.
With no Kursk being contemplated, significant resources were put into manning the Panther-Wontan line, due to it appearing the Soviets had the initiative, even after third Kharkov. IOTL, in July 1943 there were about 3.9 million Axis members facing off to about 6.8 million Soviets. By June 1943, this number is similar but slightly more in the Axis favor: 4.1 million to about 6.9 million Soviets. While the military wanted to retain Eastern Ukraine, significant peace feelers were sent out to Stalin to sacrifice East Ukraine, Smolensk, and the Rhzev salient (which was not withdrawn ITTL due to a lack of utter catastrophe in Stalingrad). Investing in a defense-line west of these areas hence made sense, being that the Soviets accepting a peace treaty was considered possible.
The Soviets, due to their significant material superiority, held a significant offensive in Rhzev in May 1943. The goal was to pinch of the salient and capture a significant portion AGC. The stakes for the Germans were huge, as an impressive showing a Rhzev was important in order to give the perception to its allies that it had solid footing in the East. Further, it would give Germany a “piece” to play in making peace with the Soviets along a new border at the Panther-Wotan line.
The battle was incredible in its ferocity. German reinforcements, ensured the salient had nearly 900,000 men. The Soviet offensive in this area was predictable and it was situated against the most heavily defended area on Earth, with layers of defensive lines, mine fields, Panzer battalions readied to respond to break throughs, and a significantly growing number of Tiger I and Elefant tank destroyers—both of which proved devastating in prepared defensive grounds thanks to their 88 mm guns. They were able to knock out enemy formations before they can even be reached. Germany also enjoyed local air superiority and muddy terrain, helping them as the defender. Stalin, who had an additional five military fronts in reserve, threw these into the battle when the initiative was first lost. Sheer numerical superiority looked like it would win a day. It was a close contest and the Germans nearly lost, but the Soviets at this juncture had most of their experienced personnel in Ukraine and so their armies were too green and did not have the established doctrine to break through such prepared defenders. Contrariwise, the German military in 1943 was man-for-man the most experienced in the world and with a suitable defense, was able to punch far above its weight. Stalin called of the offensive not long before the Germans were seriously contemplating withdrawing.
If Stalin was a little more audacious and reckless, he could have forced a general German collapse. But, he lost his nerve. Why? The Soviets anticipated the Wallies were soon to open a front elsewhere and wanted to maintain enough forces for a significant offensive predicated upon liberating Eastern Ukraine. It was felt continuing further would have compromised this follow-up offensive.
July 43 – Nov 43: The lost summer
Up until this point of the war, the German population had received news of some victorious summer offensive. While there was some popular anticipation of this, the German military neither had the fuel nor the personnel to pull this off, even at the local level. The Battle in Rhzev had significantly attrited resources they could not replace.
Manstein, the Field Marshall entrusted with AGS, boasted that he could withdraw and counter-attack any Soviet offensive in the South. This “backhand blow” would allegedly convince the Soviets after Rhzev that they qualitatively could never defeat the Axis. It was hoped that if Germany can merely “hold the line” against the Allies, a peace deal can be struck—giving eastern Ukraine and western Russian would be “more than generous” in exchange for peace. This was simply residual victory disease that did not adequately contemplate the numerically inferior position Germany still was in, despite their victory at Rhzev.
With the increasing success of the Allied bombing campaign, the Luftwaffe had nearly switched to an entirely defensive posture—something that helped improve the German resource situation slightly ITTL compared to OTL. In any event, in July 1943, the Allies struck Sicily and easily overwhelmed the Axis, who quickly withdrawn. Air and naval superiority made any Axis attempt to maintain the island impossible. The Italians nearly exited the war, but Mussolini barely maintained power. Germans reserves rushing to Italy’s defense ensured this and Mussolini would rule until the end of the war.
What followed would be both a major victory and significant defeat for the Allies. The Soviet offensive against Kharkov in the end of August was unstoppable. On the open steppe, the “endless” supply of Soviet mechanized corps overwhelmed and quickly surrounded Kharkov. Manstein sprung into action and was seriously repulsed, both sides experiencing similar losses. Instead of blunting the Soviet spear, the Soviets kept pushing until they reached the Dnieper by late November 1943. With land to trade in exchange for losing men, the Germans were executing a fighting withdrawal.
Attempts at peace against the Soviets failed and the Rhzev salient was withdrawn in order to strengthen the Panther-Wotan line and prevent a more serious disaster then what happened in eastern Ukraine. This actually shocked the average Soviet, as the reputation for “Summer Germans” led many to believe the Germans had husbanded a significant force for a coup de main on Moscow itself. This belief had tied down significant Russian reserves, but the Soviet army was so big at this point, it made no significant difference to their overall operations. Their reserves, though defensive, were perceived by the Germans as an actual attacking force—hence hastening their withdrawal.
In Italy, the Wallies were surprised by the ferocity of the Axis defenders when they attacked southern Italy in 1943. In fact, they were repulsed and driven into the ocean (something that nearly happened IOTL). ITTL, the real difference maker was significantly larger Luftwaffe and Italian air force support (due to Italy staying in the war and no Kursk disaster as in IOTL) and with the help of guided bombs, Italian naval support (which was more of a death ride, but it served its purpose), as well as immense local superiority on the ground the Wallies could not prevail. Allied attempts to “island hop” in the Dodecanese also resulted in failure.
This proved to the Wallies that any amphibious attack on France would require the complete destruction of the Luftwaffe and the transportation network in order to prevent such a disaster from happening ever again. Ironically, if a naval invasion was re-attempted sometime in the winter (akin to the Anzio landings) there was a chance it could have succeeded, as every month that passed the quality of German forces in the theater degraded. However, the shock defeat in Italy made the Wallies unable to stomach such an maneuver unless chances for success were 100 percent. In October and November Sardinia and Corsica were occupied. This was the extent of success the Wallies enjoyed in the Mediterranean in 1943.
interresting