Projects combine: Realistic CSA victory with quasi-Fascist United Ireland

[Revolutionary Todyo]

The Irish idea seems to be along pretty believable lines.
If the whole of Ireland wants to be independent then much of the Irish debate is nullified and it is far more likely that Ireland will break away from the UK in an entirely peaceful and orderly fashion.
IOTL it was the north insisting they remain part of the UK and sympathisers in the UK that were the route of much of the delay that led to the republicans getting stupid.
IMO if you have the whole of Ireland voting for home rule then you'll probally manage to get it in the 19th century.

That it would then have this other stuff happening....well, I have to say there that you can't ignore Britain. Even a 100% independent republic of Ireland is going to be strongly affected by the slightest of moves made by Britain. If the Irish government is under threat in a scenario where its relations with Britain are good then you'll probally get British help to stop things getting out of control.
Basically for a fascist/communist/whatever Ireland you probally need the same thing in Britain.

Well whilst the Fascist regime did come about due to the threat of violence Pearse and his paramilitaries, most of the British government view it the same way they've viewed Mussolini, a highly effective force for good in an unstable country, and as Pearse regime is still friendly with Britain and staying in the Commonwealth there's not much cause for argument.

As for the other scenarios, unrest in the North, agrarian violence etc. Firstly, I say that Britain would rather avoid getting stuck in Ireland again, they haven't had as many bad experiences as OTL but they don't want to exacerbate a situation by sending in the troops.
Secondly the Home Rule governments have tried to keep their problems hidden from Britain as much as possible, showing that they can run the country effectively is a big thing for them.
Thirdly, Britain has offered assistance in mediating between the government and more militant Unions, and have offered to send advisors to help the army. These have been rejected by the Dublin governments for the second reason.
And lastly, things haven't gotten so bad that Britain feels that they have an obligation to intervene. The insurrection in Ulster was as small as the Republican faction in the Civil War, and with their level of public support. It never had the manpower or equipment to prove a serious threat to the state, using more hit-and-run and terror tactics then an actual guerilla campaign.
The unrest in western Ireland is larger, with some international support from left-wing governments abroad, but it's also far more remote so it's less heard of in London.

I hope that helps somewhat, Pearses coup is seen as a necessary evil by many, and he has the support of many Conservatives, but it was not seen as the pinnacle of any chaos which requires British intervention. And to be honest, it was Pearses which kicked off most of the things. Not to say things won't get worse, just that they aren't that bad yet.

 

[Revolutionary Todyo]

I think that in order to do a "Red Confederacy" scenario, one must first understand communist ideology.

Your jumping into this scenario blind, which is never a good idea.

If we are to assume that the Confederacy has a Maoist revolution, then a vanguard party will suffice.

And as for American farmers, I agree that it is a very poor analogy for peasants in China.

There aren't enough of them in the rural Confederacy/south to orchestrate a replica of Mao Zedong's guerrilla war in China first of all.

Secondly, the peasantry, besides being more numerous in China, were historically bound to the land, or at least dependent on the landowners.

A major reason, if not the only reason, for them rising up was because they historically were without any land of their own. Farmers in America have land.

I envision the Confederacy as having a more classical, urban proletarian revolution then anything else, possibly led by a vanguard party.

I get it, the Confederacy is a stupid idea. I'm done talking about it.

 

[naraht]

Red Confederacy

Or to put it another way, you can get the *Blacks* interested in Communism...

Though a true Communist South (where Blacks are no worse than the Uzbeks, Cossacks or the Jews in the USSR) would be interesting.

 

[Revolutionary Todyo]

Or to put it another way, you can get the *Blacks* interested in Communism...

Though a true Communist South (where Blacks are no worse than the Uzbeks, Cossacks or the Jews in the USSR) would be interesting.

Well that was the plan. But trying to make it work with the story is just more trouble then it's worth, they're staying seperate with the map going to reside at the back of my hard drive.

 

[Simreeve]

2) Quasi-Fascist United Ireland
My story/scenario/weird dream project. The POD is during the Famine, which is much less harsh then OTL, causing a migration of affected farmers to other parts of Ireland rather then causing widespread death and emigration. Most farmers move to Ulster,

Why? It's not as though there's likely to be any "unclaimed" land there for them to take over and grow crops in -- even if you have any reason why growing enough crops there should be any easier than it was in the areas from which they moved -- because, unless you have a far earlier POD to change things around, everywhere already belongs to somebody or other. In fact, by the time of the famine IOTL, just about every bit of land on which the Irish peasantry could grow crops was being used for growing crops: That was a significant factor in the famine, in fact, because without any new land available to clear the customary [rural] Irish system of inheritance by dividing a deceased farmer's holdings between all of his sons had reduced the typical size of peasant smallholdings to only slightly above what would support their families if nothing went wrong, and so when the potato blight struck hardly any of them had much (if anything at all) in the way of either stored foods or saved money -- that could have been used for buying foods from elsewhere -- upon which to fall back.
And in Ulster, at that time, ownership of quite a lot of the land was legally reserved for the Protestant community (who, incidentally, generally practiced inheritance by primogeniture instead of by partition) rather than for the native Irish (and Roman Catholic) peasantry anyway: Changing that factor "plausibly" would require a POD that resulted in a lot less unrest amongst the province's natives during the 16th-18th centuries, and the only ways that I can see of doing that without just invoking an ASB would have bred such big butterflies that you'd really need to start the timeline back then in order to keep track of them properly.



Oh, and before any "Irish" Americans amonst you start trying to label that allocation of land to settlers as an "atrocity", consider that it was still a far better treatment than the USA's colonist-descended population gave to most of their country's native peoples...

 

[Revolutionary Todyo]

Land and factory owners willing to hand out a bit of food for very cheap labour, they're not moving there to set up farms, they're moving because they're starving and there's more jobs in the North. Of course most emigrate to Britain or America, but enough of them just find the move north easier.

Plus a little Protestant charity came through. It wasn't so bad that there was a huge government response, or even the limited one from OTL, hence charitable organisations deal with a lot of it, and a lot of them are run by Presbyterians as charities pretty big with them (AIRC).

 

[SPJ]

New Afrika, or as its known ITTL, the Socialist Confederal State of Nathaniel Bronson, named after a Black revolutionary hero.
On paper, everyone's equal, but in practice Blacks are basically second-class citizens.

How does this state form in your TL?

 

[Revolutionary Todyo]

How does this state form in your TL?

Idk, I included it for the lulz.

Seriously though I'm dropping the Confederate stuff, not doing a combine. So I don't really care about the map tbh.

 

[Simreeve]

Land and factory owners willing to hand out a bit of food for very cheap labour, they're not moving there to set up farms, they're moving because they're starving and there's more jobs in the North. Of course most emigrate to Britain or America, but enough of them just find the move north easier.

Plus a little Protestant charity came through. It wasn't so bad that there was a huge government response, or even the limited one from OTL, hence charitable organisations deal with a lot of it, and a lot of them are run by Presbyterians as charities pretty big with them (AIRC).

I see. Well, maybeso...

 

[Revolutionary Todyo]

I see. Well, maybeso...

What do you mean maybe so? It's the scenario and it makes sense.

 

[Simreeve]

What do you mean maybe so? It's the scenario and it makes sense.

It's just that -- going by how things were arranged in OTL Ulster, and how sectarian animosity has worked thereabouts through the years, I'm not sure either how many of the new jobs created by the protestant settlers would actually be made open to those farmers rather than kept for other members of the protestant community (or even for newer protestant immigrants from Scotland) or how much charity the Presbyterians of those days would have given to Catholics without requiring them to convert... Bigotry doesn't always make sense.

 

[Revolutionary Todyo]

It's just that -- going by how things were arranged in OTL Ulster, and how sectarian animosity has worked thereabouts through the years, I'm not sure either how many of the new jobs created by the protestant settlers would actually be made open to those farmers rather than kept for other members of the protestant community (or even for newer protestant immigrants from Scotland) or how much charity the Presbyterians of those days would have given to Catholics without requiring them to convert... Bigotry doesn't always make sense.

Well let's see, Ulster was just starting to industrialise around this point, so I'd say there would be enough jobs to go around for the Catholics, not to mention that most landowners will employ people they have to pay the least, they're quite moneywise in that sense.

New immigrants fom Scotland? This was arounf the point when Irish people started moving back to Scotland, the plantation period is over.

Secterianism has always been bad, but it was at it's worst at the end of the century due to the the way Irish identity had changed in the previous decades. Whilst the United Irishmen had proposed a secular nation, the Ireland that emerged from the Age of Nationalism was one that was strongly Gaelic and Catholic. These things were not popular in Protestant Ulster, so when Home Rule was proposed the arguement was "We are nothing like them in anyway!"
However in the 1840's, there's less of a difference. Everyone sees themselves as an Irish person within the United Kingdom, the difference is political rather then ethnic or social. So Secterianism hasn't gotten as bad as it could be yet.

And yes, whilst IOTL a lot of Protestant groups did try to convert people in exchange for food, this Famine is no where near as bad as OTLs. No one ever gets the idea that this is a perfect oppertunity to convert the Papsist and instead just help to administer relief to people arriving in Ulster.
The large influx would obviously lead to some tension, but this eventually subsides when the Famine ends in 1848 (4 years earlier then OTL) and everyone just gets on with their lives.