Project 571 executed: What happens next?

Whiteshore

Whiteshore

Historically, Project 571 was a supposed coup attempt against Chairman Mao planned to name Lin Biao leader of the People's Republic of China, overthrowing Chairman Mao in the process, which was planned by Lin Liguo, the son of Lin Biao. However, the plot was revealed before it was to be executed, so what would have happened had Project 571 been executed?

Scenario A. Project 571 succeeds in installing Lin Biao as the PRC's unquestioned ruler.
Scenario B. Project 571 kills Mao but Lin Biao fails to take over China
Scenario C. Project 571 is a catastrophic failure which results in Lin Biao and his followers being crushed by Mao loyalists
 

RousseauX

Donor
Whiteshore said:
Historically, Project 571 was a supposed coup attempt against Chairman Mao planned to name Lin Biao leader of the People's Republic of China, overthrowing Chairman Mao in the process, which was planned by Lin Liguo, the son of Lin Biao. However, the plot was revealed before it was to be executed, so what would have happened had Project 571 been executed?

Scenario A. Project 571 succeeds in installing Lin Biao as the PRC's unquestioned ruler.
Scenario B. Project 571 kills Mao but Lin Biao fails to take over China
Scenario C. Project 571 is a catastrophic failure which results in Lin Biao and his followers being crushed by Mao loyalists
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Bombard the Headquarters is a pretty good 571 TL
 

GSD310

I would go with Option A. Lin Biao becomes the Leader of the PRC. The PRC becomes OTL DPRK on steroids, a one-party communist state but with the military being the real center of power.
 

Deleted member 143777

A. Probably won't happen. Lin himself is not thought to have supported the plan, so even if it succeeds it's unlikely that he'll step up and become the "unquestioned leader". He might be play a role in some sort of collective leadership.
B. Either the escalation of the Cultural Revolution to horrific new heights, or moderates (such as Zhou Enlai) take over and put an end to it.
C. Isn't this just OTL?
 

arrowiv

Also, you can kiss goodbye any trip to Beijing by Nixon/Kissinger and a restoration of Sino/US diplomatic ties. It would be business as usual with Taiwan and Chiang.
 
SealTheRealDeal

SealTheRealDeal

Whiteshore said:
Fair enough. What about who would be more likely to take over if Project 571 succeeded in killing Mao but failed to consolidate power like a Chinese version of Twilight of the Valkyries?
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Depends, do they kill Mao and then immediately get rounded up by state security or do they kill Mao and live to fight the ensuing civil war?
 

Deleted member 143777

Would that be scenario B?

Even though Lin Biao wasn't actually involved the planning, the responsibility it going to fall on him in the end. Since Lin up until this point was (publicly at least) a reluctant supporter of the Cultural Revolution, there's a chance that Zhou Enlai and the moderates will be able to take power to "check the far-left factions of the party and prevent them from destabilizing the country" or something like that . There's a lot of potential outcomes for this one : IMO this could plausibly result in anything from Hua Guofeng-style moderate reform, Dengism, complete neoliberalism (with or without political democratization), democratic socialism, social democracy, or something akin to the IOTL Chinese New Left.

At the same time, Lin IOTL was criticized alongside Confucius in Cultural Revolution propaganda following his death (as if he were a vocal opponent, which he only ever was in private), so the people that would eventually become the Gang of Four (or their supporters) might also seize power and escalate the Cultural Revolution even further. If they last then China becomes something more akin to the DPRK. If it fizzles out naturally, mainland Chinese culture is going to be a lot more "revolutionary" and you won't see anything like the resurgence of traditional cultural that has occurred in the last few decades; this post-CR could probably be anywhere on the economic spectrum. If there's any sort of violent reaction against this regime, then the Overton Window in China is going take a sharp swing in the hard-right direction.
 
SealTheRealDeal

SealTheRealDeal

Whiteshore said:
  1. Either scenario would do, but the idea of a short civil war between "Mao loyalists" and Linists lasting a few days or weeks would fit with the Twilight of the Valkyries analogies for this failed coup.
  2. Yes.
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I was thinking less "short civil war" and more Third Chinese Civil War with extensive Soviet intervention.
 
Whiteshore

Whiteshore

So, who would be more likely to win in the power struggle amongst the "Mao loyalists"? The proto-Gang of Four under Jiang Qing or Zhou Enlai's relatively moderate faction?
 

RousseauX

Donor
Whiteshore said:
Fair enough. What about who would be more likely to take over if Project 571 succeeded in killing Mao but failed to consolidate power like a Chinese version of Twilight of the Valkyries?
Click to expand...
If Mao dies and the coup fails anyway?

The Gang of Four is faced with the same situation they were in in 1976: they don't have a base of support outside of Shanghai and Mao. The "moderate" Maoists are weaker here because Hua Guofeng is not designated heir. Power would go to the party and PLA old guard, as it did post-1976.

Some coalition of party old guard is going to lead the country for a while. Zhou Enlai is premier and is going to be the nominal leader, but he was always a follower and not a leader. The PLA is going to heavily back the ruling coalition in an effort to restore stability to the country.

Peng Dehui is is going to live longer itt, he died in 1974 due to being denied medical care, and the coup was 1971.

Come 1976 when Zhou dies, Deng is actually pretty likely to end up de facto leader anyway. He is very well respected by the party old guard, and is fortunate enough to outlive most of the party leadership who has seniority over him.
 
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