Problems of the Peace

My new TL examining the consequences of an Entente victory in 1916, brought about predominantly by a slightly altered Brusilov Offensive, an earlier entry of Romania into the war, and simultaneous attacks by the British on the Somme and Italians on the Isonzo. Not sure how viable the POD itself is, but I've done a bit of research and it doesn't seem too far fetched. Anyway, I want to concentrate more on the effects as opposed to the cause (that's my excuse, anyway :D.) So here goes...

Problems of the Peace

-An Entente victory in 1916-


Chapter One:
SHACKLED TO A CORPSE

1.1 – THE MAN WHO WON THE WAR


4th June 1916
Brusilov orders the offensive to commence. The short[1] but accurate artillery bombardment that precedes the assault, and the use of small groups of well trained shock troops, lead to unparalleled initial success. Units of General Kaledin’s Eighth Army[2] pierce the Austro-Hungarian defences in the direction of Lutsk, while in the southern section of the front Seventh[3] and Ninth[4] Armies under Generals Scherbachev and Letchitsky advance towards Czernowitz. The attack in the centre is less successful, but progress is made in the direction of Brody and the important rail junction of Zlaczov. 49,000 Austro-Hungarian soldiers – most of them from Slavic regiments – desert or are captured in the first hours of the attack.

5th June 1916
British ship HMS Hampshire hits a mine off the Orkney Isles in the North Sea. Lord Kitchener, who is travelling to St Petersburg, is among those drowned.

7th June 1916
The vanguard of Letchitsky’s Ninth Army reaches the outskirts of Czernowitz, capitol of the Austro-Hungarian province of Bukovina. A Russian attack on the centre of the town is repulsed by a hastily organised Austrian defence, with the Russians suffering 23,000 casualties to the Austro-Hungarians 21,000.

Fears grow in Vienna as the full scale of the attack is realised.

8th June 1916
The city of Lutsk falls to the forces of Kaledin’s Eight Army. Austro-Hungarian casualties include 65,000 captured, 22,500 wounded and 19,700 killed – the high proportion of troops surrendering is seen by both Russians and Germans as a signal of the rapidly failing morale of the Hapsburg army. Russian casualties are, by contrast, relatively light, and include 14,200 dead and 29,500 wounded. With the capture of Lutsk, Russian soldiers reach the banks of the river Steyr. A hastily prepared fortified line along the river succeeds in halting the advance for a few hours, but a flanking movement forces the Austro-Hungarian Fourth Army to retreat.

In Berlin, representatives of the General Staffs of Austria-Hungary and Germany hold an urgent meeting. The Austro-Hungarian high command states that it lacks sufficient resources to stem the tide of the burgeoning Russian attack. In response to the Austrian pleas, Germany promises to eventually send four divisions of troops to Galicia. The 19th and 10thth Active Corps, to be later reinforced by the 11th Bavarian and 43rd Reserve Infantry Divisions. A counterattack is planned, to be launched from the region of Kovel, 50 miles north-west of Lutsk. Infantry Divisions will be removed from France to form the 10th Active Corps.

9th June 1916
A major assault on
Czernowitz results in a costly victory for the Russian forces. The Austro-Hungarian rearguard attempts to destroy the town's two bridges over the river Pruth, but the explosives on the railway bridge fail to explode.

10th June 1916
General Sakharov’s Ninth Army achieves a stunning breakthrough against the Austro-Hungarian Seventh Army in positions east of the river Zlota Lipa[5]. General Pflanzer-Baltin, commander of Seventh Army, reports back to Vienna that he has lost some 100,00 men in a matter of days. The shattered remnants of the Austrian force retreat to the Gnila Lipa, 30 miles to the west.

11th June 1916
The Austro-Hungarian high command reluctantly orders the transferral of five divisions from the Italian front to Galicia, effectively ending the Austrian Asiago Offensive – which had been launched a month earlier[6]. Archduke Francis Josef is relieved of his command of the Fourth Army after the defeat at Lutsk, and replaced by General Tersztyanszky. Fourth Army has lost around 45,000 men captured or missing since the withdrawal from the Steyr.

Italian General Luigi Cadorna is free to transfer large numbers of troops from the Trentino, where the Austro-Hungarian offensive has been successfully contained, to the Isonzo front. Another offensive[7] on the Isonzo is planned to commence in two weeks time in order to capitalise on Austrian concentration on the Galician front.

12th June 1916
Conservative estimates on the part of Brusilov’s staff indicate that 190,000 enemy troops have been captured since the start of the offensive, including almost 3,000 officers. 215 field guns and over 600 machine guns have also been taken. Penetrations of up to 50 miles[8] have been made towards Kovel, with widespread gains across the whole front.

15th June 1916
Russian and British diplomats arrive in Bucharest, paving the way for the negotiation of Romanian entry into the war on the side of the Entente. Russian fears that Romania covets their Bessarabian provinces[9] threaten to destabilise the talks.

The talks do not go unnoticed among Romania’s former allies. Field Marshal Paul von Hindenburg reports to the German general staff; “It is certain that so relatively small a state as Romania has never before been given a role so important, and, indeed, so decisive for the history of the world at so favourable a moment. Never before have two great Powers like Germany and Austria found themselves so much at the mercy of the military resources of a country which has scarcely one twentieth of the population of the two great states. Judging by the military situation, it is to be expected that Romania has only to advance where she wished to decide the world war in favour of those Powers which have been hurling themselves at us in vain for years. Thus everything seems to depend on whether Romania is ready to make any sort of use of her momentary advantage.”[10]

_________________________________________

[1] The bombardment lasts four hours – very short when compared to the five-day barrage prior to the Somme offensive in OTL.
[2] Eleven infantry and four cavalry divisions.
[3] Seven infantry and three cavalry divisions.
[4] Ten infantry and four cavalry divisions.
[5] A northern tributary of the River Dniester.
[6] 15th May 1916.
[7] It will be the sixth.
[8] In comparison the Somme offensive gained a little under 10 miles in the period July-November 1916.
[9] Which, like Transylvania, has a Romanian majority.
[10] An actual OTL quote from Hindenburg, I’ve modified it to make it present tense.


MAP: Russian gains up to the 10th June.

10thjune1916zr4.png

 

maverick

Banned
Interesting...one of my first Tls was about a successful Brusilov Offensive...:)

I think that by itself, the Brusilov offensive has enough potential and that a multi-pod of several offensives is not all that necessary, but hey,if the war is not the point of the TL in any case...

When does the war end, btw? I think that in my TL it did in the winter of 1916-1917...
 
Tiny note, the Hampshire was an armoured cruiser

- - -

Do you want to consider the effects of the PEACE rather than of the offensive ? Not quite sure yet :)

One thing I would say is that the Kaiser has a reasonable chance of retaining his throne, and even if not then the Crown Prince is pretty likely at this date to get it.

Are you intending to involve Karl, Sixtus etc in the peace manoevrings ?

Best Regards
Grey Wolf
 
I think that by itself, the Brusilov offensive has enough potential and that a multi-pod of several offensives is not all that necessary, but hey,if the war is not the point of the TL in any case...

When does the war end, btw? I think that in my TL it did in the winter of 1916-1917...

Yeah, after looking at it again I think that Romania entering the war earlier should be the only POD I need. Most of the stuff I've written pretty much happened OTL, so I shouldn't need to change anything. Yeah I was thinking the war'll end around December 1916 - Germany's position will become untenable within a couple of Austria-Hungary collapsing.

Grey Wolf said:
Do you want to consider the effects of the PEACE rather than of the offensive ? Not quite sure yet :)

One thing I would say is that the Kaiser has a reasonable chance of retaining his throne, and even if not then the Crown Prince is pretty likely at this date to get it.

Are you intending to involve Karl, Sixtus etc in the peace manoevrings ?
The peace will be the main part, eventually. Part one's just an extended prologue really :D - I think it's important to have a bit of background.

The German monarchy will definitely continue, but I'm not sure Wilhelm II will be occupying it.

I think Karl will be the driving force behind the negotiations - Franz Josef is only a few months away from death and the shock of the offensive may even finish him off a bit earlier. The undercover nature of the Sixtus negotiations probably won't be needed tbh - it will be well and truly clear that Austria is buggered.
 

Hnau

Banned
I really liked the idea of a more successful Brusilov Offensive in my various Russo-centric WWI timelines. The ATL borders on your map are slightly too irregular... the lines on the Eastern Front were much more fluid. I would smooth them out a good deal for realism.

Romania would definitely enter the war earlier with a more successful Brusilov Offensive, which would have various effects beneficial for the Allies. I don't know if it'd be enough to end the war a year earlier or so... but let's see what you've got. :)
 
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