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What were the odds of a Mediterranean-girdling empire, especially one that has not just coastal enclaves, but a contiguous land presence around most of the sea, in the event Rome does not rise into that position?

What other polities might be best-positioned to do that?

Another Italian city state we hardly think of, or a Kingdom like the Etruscans?

the Carthaginians?

A Macedonian or Diadochi based empire?

An enduring Persian empire

a Gallic empire

a Berber or Mauretanian empire

a Greek-speaking polis in Greece, Sicily or the west med pulls a Rome?

an empire based on some now obscure ethnic group like Thracians, Illyrians, Dacians, Phrygians or other Anatolian peoples?

An Iberian empire

A Germanic, Scythian, Slavic or Sarmatian empire

If we wanted a polity based on a major European island like Cyprus, Rhodes, Crete, Sicily, Sardinia, Corsica, Majorca or Crimea have a decent shot at forming a Mediterranean-wide thalassocracy or coastal empire or more, which island would be the most plausible point of origin for it?
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