Probability check: Surviving Japanese Empire

There's been a few threads kicking about regarding the Japanese in WWII, and one regarding a surviving /partial Nazi "victory". So...

It's quite obvious that the Japanese were screwed the moment the declared war on the US; and that said war with the US was largely inevitable the moment they began going after European possessions in the south / west Pacific.
True, they were getting chewed up in the morass of China, but...

Just how far could Japan have pushed the envelope with their colonial/imperialistic ambitions without tipping over the edge of invoking the wrath of the powers that be?
Could they have kept Taiwan?
Could they have gotten away with staying in northern Indochina?
Could they have gotten away with Manchuria? Even in puppet govt format?
Could they have been happy with oil shipments from the Dutch east indies (ala pre June '41)?

How far could they have pushed before going too far and incurring the irrevocable wrath of the US and European states?

And by "surviving", I don't necessarily mean bringing peace, love, and happyness to their Greater East Asia Co-Prosperity Sphere. Rather, "surviving" as in outlasting the mess in Europe (what ever shape that might have taken), and while legitimacy might remain in question, at least de facto rule of the territories that be.

At what point did the Japanese push too far, and how much could they have gotten away with?
 
There's been a few threads kicking about regarding the Japanese in WWII, and one regarding a surviving /partial Nazi "victory". So...

It's quite obvious that the Japanese were screwed the moment the declared war on the US; and that said war with the US was largely inevitable the moment they began going after European possessions in the south / west Pacific.
True, they were getting chewed up in the morass of China, but...

Just how far could Japan have pushed the envelope with their colonial/imperialistic ambitions without tipping over the edge of invoking the wrath of the powers that be?
Could they have kept Taiwan?
Could they have gotten away with staying in northern Indochina?
Could they have gotten away with Manchuria? Even in puppet govt format?
Could they have been happy with oil shipments from the Dutch east indies (ala pre June '41)?

How far could they have pushed before going too far and incurring the irrevocable wrath of the US and European states?

And by "surviving", I don't necessarily mean bringing peace, love, and happyness to their Greater East Asia Co-Prosperity Sphere. Rather, "surviving" as in outlasting the mess in Europe (what ever shape that might have taken), and while legitimacy might remain in question, at least de facto rule of the territories that be.

At what point did the Japanese push too far, and how much could they have gotten away with?

The tipping point was when they let junior army officers decide policy by assassinating anyone they didn't like.

Stop that, and they don't go into China (aside from Manchuria, and probably extorting concessions in port cities).

If they don't go into China, they don't suffer the massive drain on resources (money, materiel, people, industrial production) that got sucked in there, which means they have no need to attack the DEI, and they can buy (at least some) oil.

Without they drain on industry and finances caused by the China quagmire, they can afford to build more merchant ships and tankers. Heck, they can probably sell a few to the Brits and Dutch, who are swamped by the war in Europe.

IF they did that, they could keep Manchuria and Taiwan, no question. IMO.
 
If the war in the Pacific is generally averted then the Japanese could probably hold onto Korea and Taiwan for a long period. Manchukuo is unholdable, even as a puppet, after the Chinese stabilise, Rule 2 of the Book of War and all that.

Japan might be allowed to keep some of the closer parts of its empire especially as a buff against the Soviets and/or a Communist China.

Eventually Korea would have to be wound down to some form of independence, though a pro-Japan government in a post-Japan Korea is possible if Tokyo manages it right and made them fear Communist China.

Attacking the US/British Asia was the point of no return. Once the Pacific war began then the US was going to force Japan into submission one way or another and leave them only with the Home Islands.
 
If the Japanese don't get involved in China, but China itself keeps in civil war (with warlords armed with japanese guns and money so they keep fighting each other), Japan might as well take it into the 60's and beyond.

Why? Because in order to get Japan out of China, a great POD is a surviving Taisho democracy, that can later be seen as a bulwark against the USSR. Especially if Mao wins the Chinese civil war. Then Manchuria will be even harder to recover, because the Japanese may call the US or Britain for assistance. Also, Japan may well get nuclear weapons...
 
It should be noted that with the end of the Russo-Japanese war it was determined that both Korea and Manchuria were Japanese spheres of influence - and that was 1905. Annexation of Korea was essentially preparation for the invasion and occupation of Manchuria. 1931 was only the result of decades' worth of preparation and militarisation.
Either Japan goes full-on into the Asian continent, or it doesn't. More or less simple.
 
Without the full-scale Japanese invasion, there will be no People's Republic, period. Mao himself admitted that the Communists were on their last throes when they arrived at Yan'an, and only the imminent outbreak of war forced Chiang to stop his plans to finish the Communists once and for all.
 
At what point did the Japanese push too far?


Dec 7, 1941. Bull Halsey's quote summed up the US attitude of the time: "By the time this is over, the Japanese language will only be spoken in Hell." And without the Atomic bombs, the level of starvation in Japan plus the casualties of invading Kyushu and the Kanto plain might well have made that true.
 
Dec 7, 1941. Bull Halsey's quote summed up the US attitude of the time: "By the time this is over, the Japanese language will only be spoken in Hell." And without the Atomic bombs, the level of starvation in Japan plus the casualties of invading Kyushu and the Kanto plain might well have made that true.

While it's possible to starve a people into submission it's impossible to starve them into extinction.
 
The Japanese got away with a lot in China in the 30s; the Great Powers didn't like it but didn't do much. They're fine there for the short term. Aggressively going after colonies did them in. Maybe they could have continued trying to take Soviet land but then the USSR is against them, a potential big mess; if the hypothetical WW2 still ends with a victorious USSR, they're stuffed. They could get away with conquering or "forming alliances" with some of the smaller independent Asian states.

So best bet is to have limited territorial ambitions and that's a biiiiig POD right there.
 
Top