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I have a very specific scenario in mind for an alternate Cold War.

The Axis defeats the USSR and Britain, and in the late 40s, Germany annexes Europe and North Africa, Italy takes part of East Africa, and Japan takes over East and Southeast Asia. Meanwhile, the USSR is carved up: Germany gets everything east of the Caucasus and Japan takes a fair chunk of Siberia, while part of middle Russia and the Central Asian SSRs form a rump Soviet Union.
Also, the British Raj fortifies against Japanese aggression.
In 1945, Winston Churchill, being the leader of the British resistance, smuggles out the King and his daughter. George reaches Canada and becomes King of Great Britain in Exile, while Princess Elizabeth's boat is pursued south by some German naval ships. Elizabeth ends up in India in 1946, where an unofficial cooperative between British officers and separatists has been used to stop the Japanese from invading.
Elizabeth becomes the monarch of a politically independent British Raj.

Following the annexation of Europe, America develops an atomic bomb in 1947. This begins a long, hard Cold War between fascism and democracy.

Okay, I have two questions:
1. How probable would you say this scenario is?
2. How would this Cold War end?
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