probability check: German Harz as Kingdom ?

The Harz is the highest mountain range in northern Germany
and a rugged terrain extends across parts of Lower Saxony, Saxony-Anhalt and Thuringia.
800px-Harz_map.png

for more info: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Harz

how are the chances this can become a Kingdom ?
in normal course of County -> Margrave -> Duchy -> Kingdom

some problems
the black plague and later Thirty Years' War who depopulated the regio around 65%!
(or is this a opportunity by repopulate the regio ?)
also Prussia expansion in Seven Years' War and Napoleonic Wars
is here a chance the Harz can become a Kingdom during Congress of Vienna in 1815 ?
and finaly the integration in German Empire in 1870
 
Rather unlikely, I'd say.-

First of all, the area contains lots of imperial holdings, so it's unlikely to become part of an early territorial accumulation. With its mnining resources, it is also extremely valuable in the 1100s and 1200s, so any attempt to unify it in one hand is likely to have the neighbouring princes go ape.

Secondly, it has lots of ecclesiastical territories. Same problem we discussed with Franconia a while ago. That is a hindrance to unification until the Reformation.

Thirdly, it's borderland territory early on, so the large territorial acquisitions happen to its east. It would be relatively easy to see the Harz become part of a kingdom like that - Saxony or Thuringia, or even Bohemia - but an independent kingdom is unlikely.

Fourth, it's inside the borders of the Reich, so it cannot legally become a kingdom until 1806. Saxony tried through Poland and Brandenburg managed through Prussia while the crowns of the Habsburg were Bohemia and Hungary. You can't be a king inside the HRE. So Harz would need an exterior territory to justify a kingship, and unfortunately, the nearest big territory is Poland. on the plus side, it already is a kingdom. On the minus side, the Harz taking over Poland is - unlikely.

So you'd be limited to a kingdom after 1806. In order for Napoleon to want to do that, he'd need a reason to consider it viable, or feel really pissed off at Prussia, Saxony and Hesse, since otherwise the logical choicwe would be to pass the land to either of them. Your best bet is something like that - an ambitous local ruler accumulating territories to stop OTL's Brandenburg expansion into the area. Then whenever the HRE ends, he is declared/declares himself king to punish alt-Prussia or alt-Saxony.
 
thanks on reply

on First:
counts of Hohnstein almost got Harz unify under there rule
in 14 century they got half of Harz under control
but unfortunately then the families lines got in conflict and becomes impoverished.
and the last heir Volkmar Wolf von Hohnstein-Klettenberg die in age of 3 years in 1586.

on second:
i think also a unification start with the Reformation in 1517
but is complet unlit the Peace of Westphalia in 1648
this because Thirty Years' War and Swedish intervention who devastated the Harz.
one of the peace treaties declare Harz as a Duchy ?

on Third
Harz as Duchy will have danger to be overrun by Prussia force in Seven Years' War
and later by Napoleonic forces, integrate in Kingdom of Westphalia ?

on Fourth:
yes is very unlikey that Harz become a kingdom bevor 1806
therefore i proposed Congress of Vienna in 1815 (become Kingdom as compensation ?)
mabye as a bufferstaate between Prussia and Thuringia?
 
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