Pro-Russian separatists in Ukraine capture Kharkiv in early 2014

CaliGuy

Banned
What if, in addition to the cities that they captured in our TL, pro-Russian separatists in Ukraine also somehow capture Kharkiv in early 2014?

For the record, a capture of Kharkiv would mean that pro-Russian separatists would be in control of both ends of the Donetsk-Kharkiv road--thus allowing these separatists to trap and encircle the Ukrainian forces which are stuck in the areas east of this road (in other words, in Ukraine's eastern panhandle):

http://www.ezilon.com/maps/images/europe/road-map-of-Ukraine.gif

road-map-of-Ukraine.gif


Now, with Ukraine losing all of its territory east of Donetsk and Kharkiv, how far would Russia and pro-Russian separatists be willing to go in Ukraine in this TL?

Any thoughts on this?
 
I think the only way the separatists would be able to capture Kharkov is if Russia intervened in force on their side with a full-scale invasion. If that's the case, then we can expect Kiev to fall about a week later. The west slaps down several more sanctions, lodges more condemnations, bulks up their forces in the Baltic States and Poland... and probably starts shipping weapons to the inevitable Ukrainian insurgency. That last bit is ultimately gonna be a pretty massive weight around Russia's shoulder.
 

CaliGuy

Banned
I think the only way the separatists would be able to capture Kharkov is if Russia intervened in force on their side with a full-scale invasion.

Perhaps.

If that's the case, then we can expect Kiev to fall about a week later. The west slaps down several more sanctions, lodges more condemnations, bulks up their forces in the Baltic States and Poland... and probably starts shipping weapons to the inevitable Ukrainian insurgency. That last bit is ultimately gonna be a pretty massive weight around Russia's shoulder.

Frankly, I doubt that Russia would actually go for Kiev in this TL for the reason(s) that you mentioned above; basically, Russia certainly wouldn't want to deal with a years-long Ukrainian insurgency!
 
I agree that it would probably require more support from the Russians although I don't know if it would require out right intervention by them. They could just move more of the "little green men" across the border to bolster the rebels. The western response would probably be stronger than otl due to the stronger rebels and more Russian involvement. We could see stronger sanctions and more aid to the Ukrainians.

In the long term it could result in a bloodier war to retake rebel territory and drive the Russian "volunteers" back across the border.
 

CaliGuy

Banned
I agree that it would probably require more support from the Russians although I don't know if it would require out right intervention by them. They could just move more of the "little green men" across the border to bolster the rebels. The western response would probably be stronger than otl due to the stronger rebels and more Russian involvement. We could see stronger sanctions and more aid to the Ukrainians.

Agreed; also, though, an encirclement and destruction of all Ukrainian forces east of the Kharkiv-Donetsk road would certainly be an extremely humiliating setback for the Maidan Ukrainian government!

In the long term it could result in a bloodier war to retake rebel territory and drive the Russian "volunteers" back across the border.

Yes, but this war might also be much less successful in comparison to our TL; indeed, just take a look at the logistical situation in the road map above had the pro-Russian separatists conquered the entire Kharkiv-Donetsk road!
 

CaliGuy

Banned
Also, for the record, my guess would be that Mariupol would be the next target city for the pro-Russian separatists in Ukraine in this TL for both logistical reasons and its close proximity to Russia.
 
encirclement and destruction of all Ukrainian forces east of the Kharkiv-Donetsk road

That assumes that the Ukrainians would not be able to break out of the encirclement. If the battle to take Kharkiv is bloody which I expect it would be then the Ukrainians may be able to break out and avoid a complete disaster.
 

CaliGuy

Banned
That assumes that the Ukrainians would not be able to break out of the encirclement. If the battle to take Kharkiv is bloody which I expect it would be then the Ukrainians may be able to break out and avoid a complete disaster.
How bloody were the battles for Donetsk and Luhansk, though?
 
How bloody were the battles for Donetsk and Luhansk, though?

Those battles were really a different beast. Kharkiv is the second biggest city in Ukraine, the government troops are going to fight savagely to keep the rebels out. It's also important to remember that Kharkiv was not nearly as pro Russian as Donetsk and Luhansk so we could see some civilian resistance to the rebels.
 

CaliGuy

Banned
Those battles were really a different beast. Kharkiv is the second biggest city in Ukraine, the government troops are going to fight savagely to keep the rebels out. It's also important to remember that Kharkiv was not nearly as pro Russian as Donetsk and Luhansk so we could see some civilian resistance to the rebels.
OK; understood.

However, in any case, the loss of all Ukrainian territory east of the Donetsk and Kharkiv road--even without an encirclement--would certainly be a significant (indeed, perhaps severe) loss for the Ukrainian government.
 
Kharkiv is only 25 miles from the border and Russia already had deployments probably some kilometers back from the border but not enough to not be able to get there within a hours at the most. Ukrainian forces could otherwise retake the city. And I don't think Kharkiv falling would cause the Ukranian forces in the eastern district to be encircled. Ukrainian forces were making operational advances to Sloviansk and Kramatorsk as early as 1 July. The battle of Kharkiv will happen no later than that but may push things back in other places such as with Sloviansk and Kramatorsk.
 
Kharkiv is only 25 miles from the border and Russia already had deployments probably some kilometers back from the border but not enough to not be able to get there within a hours at the most. Ukrainian forces could otherwise retake the city. And I don't think Kharkiv falling would cause the Ukranian forces in the eastern district to be encircled. Why do you think that? Ukrainian forces were making operational advances to Sloviansk and Kramatorsk as early as 1 July. The battle of Kharkiv will happen no later than that but may push things back in other places such as with Sloviansk and Kramatorsk.

Unless the RGF immediately replace themselves completely with a hodgepodge of separatist forces, that's utter fantasy. The only instance where the regular Russian ground forces crossed over the border in anything at or greater then battalion strength was in August/September 2014. As a Ukrainian Army offensive was driving in the rebels flanks and threatening their collapse, around two to three Russian motor-rifle battalion task groups crossed the border and proceeded to absolutely lay utter waste to a Ukrainian force 20-30 times their size. They only withdrew back across the border after Ukrainian forces had been encircled, routed, and lost practically all of their equipment. The fact that a Ukrainian-corps sized formation, including some of Ukraine's best units, got it's ass handed to it by a paltry few Russian sub-units gives a pretty good indication at how things would turn out if the Russians ever hit Ukrainians with, say, an actual formation.
 
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Unless the RGF immediately replace themselves completely with a hodgepodge of separatist forces, that's utter fantasy. The only instance where the regular Russian ground forces crossed over the border in anything at or greater then battalion strength was in August/September 2014. As a Ukrainian Army offensive was driving in the rebels flanks and threatening their collapse, around two to three Russian motor-rifle battalion task groups crossed the border and proceeded to absolutely lay utter waste to a Ukrainian force nearly 30 times their size. They only withdrew back across the border after Ukrainian forces had been encircled, routed, and lost practically all of their equipment. The fact that a Ukrainian-corps sized formation, including some of Ukraine's best units, got it's ass handed to it by a paltry few Russian sub-units gives a pretty good indication at how things would turn out if the Russians ever hit Ukrainians with, say, an actual formation.
Where do you get 30 times part from and that was what Russian forces were comprised of? Iliovaisk for example doesn't seem that lopsided and seems to have different units participating from what I can tell even at brigade level for the Russian Federation. Ukrainian higher ups in command would have been a part of the USSR and underwent military reforms to become more like the US. I thought the professional army was three divisions? Before conscription was brought back. If no intervention then I would think Kharkiv is retaken before August and the intervention.
 
Where do you get 30 times part from and that was what Russian forces were comprised of?

As I said, the Russian force consisted of around two-three Battalion Task Groups. We don't know the precise numbers and composition because the Russians officially still deny they were there in any capacity (as if anyone believes them). Depending on what support elements were attached from their parent brigades, though, it seems to have been around 1,500-2,500 men. As far as I am aware, the Ukrainian force they defeated was around 30,000 men.

Ukrainian higher ups in command would have been a part of the USSR and underwent military reforms to become more like the US. I thought the professional army was three divisions? Before conscription was brought back.

That's the thing though: the Russians have radically changed how they operated since the fall of the USSR. They have done away with the division and their main tactical formation is now the Battalion Tactical Group (BTG) which is a combined arms battalion of tanks, IFVs and organic artillery. BTGs are tied together more loosely in brigade organizations which likewise have more organic resources. After the 2008 war with Georgia the Russians also compressed the chain of command down to the BTGs to aid the provision of rapid fire support.

If the Russians choose to intervene in such a major way as to try and seize Kharkov for the Separatists, we're liable to be looking at multiple "New Look" Russian Brigades. Compared to the American Brigade Combat Team, the Russian Brigades are about the same size (so larger than the old Soviet Regiments) but has organic air defense and a lot more artillery: two Battalionn of self propelled guns and one Battalion of rocket artillery. An American BCT usually just has a single Battalion's worth of mixed artillery batteries.

As far as I'm aware, though, Ukraine's military reforms had previously been pretty minimal and their own structure was, and possibly is, still based on the old Soviet divisional model. On top of that, they let their training and maintenance atrophy pretty badly and the humiliation over Crimea hurt their morale even before the August/September intervention. The Russians repeatedly maneuvered to find and fix Ukrainian forces and then utterly destroyed them in firepower duels.
 
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There were four Ukranian divisions somewhere in between 2000 and 2004 that were transforming to a brigade based system. They seem to have participated in the War in Donbas and the August period at the level of brigade. A brigade structure of medium weight combat groups was the goal. Pre conflict Ukrainians were allowed to train in the US I believe. The US is in its 6th reorganization (since the Cold War started) currently to orient from a Cold War force structure to a brigade based system. However, when the USSR fell it left Ukraine with a number of units and formations, being a Cold War force structure where the division was the essential operational unit. In the case of WWII the operational-strategic unit as in Moscow, Kursk, etc. actually would be army I think. However, the Ukrainians seem to have made the transition from Cold War structure to something new and modern.

It seems their success then is because of operatioanal-level, fire assets capable of 'deep fires' into the operational strategic depth of the Ukraine to hit their targets, something the USSR took special interest in. With a sort of 'classic maneuver' spin on it where they maneuver into place to attack the enemy. The USSR had a preoccupation with coordination of fire assets and the balance of forces regarding these things such as missile groupings, PGM systems, etc. They thought they would be a game changer. However the USSR did interestingly contemplate the formation of combined arms battalions at one point.
 
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