Princep's gun misfires

samcster94

Banned
What if the Serbian nationalist who killed the Austrian archduke misfired??? I do imagine more Balkans wars and a WWI analog, but when?
 
But would they have stopped had he failed?
Princip was the only guy on the route out of the city, so if he had failed there wouldn't have been anyone else to attempt. My impression of the situation is that Princip decided to go to the cafe independently of the conspiracy in the off chance that the Archduke took his planned exit route (which probably wouldn't happen after they had already been bombed).
 
My thought has generally been that had the archduke not been assassinated and the black hand was weakened thereafter, that we'd see an Austrian-Hungarian political crisis in 1917 which could devolve into civil war and might see the intervention of outside powers.
 

kernals12

Banned
My thought has generally been that had the archduke not been assassinated and the black hand was weakened thereafter, that we'd see an Austrian-Hungarian political crisis in 1917 which could devolve into civil war and might see the intervention of outside powers.
By 1917, the Archduke would be emperor, and he was a strong supporter of federalization for A-H.
 
By 1917, the Archduke would be emperor, and he was a strong supporter of federalization for A-H.
He would be the emperor, but my understanding is that his support for federalism is overstated and that the Hungarians were adamantly against federalism. Ausgleich could well breakdown entirely.
 

kernals12

Banned
My thought has generally been that had the archduke not been assassinated and the black hand was weakened thereafter, that we'd see an Austrian-Hungarian political crisis in 1917 which could devolve into civil war and might see the intervention of outside powers.
I wonder what the resulting partition would be like.
 
I wonder what the resulting partition would be like.
Austria (sans Berbenland), Styria, and Sudtirol sans the Trentino to Germany. Carniola and Istria go to Italy along with the Trentino. Gallicia goes to Russia. Bohemia, Moravia, (Austrian) Silesia, Bosnia and Dalmatia could go one of several ways. HUngary with Croatia-Slavonia I see getting independence.
 

kernals12

Banned
Austria (sans Berbenland), Styria, and Sudtirol sans the Trentino to Germany. Carniola and Istria go to Italy along with the Trentino. Gallicia goes to Russia. Bohemia, Moravia, (Austrian) Silesia, Bosnia and Dalmatia could go one of several ways. HUngary with Croatia-Slavonia I see getting independence.
You forgot Transylvania and Seklerland. I imagine Hungary and Romania going to war over those 2 provinces.
 
The incident would still enrage the Austrians. Generally speaking, the Archduke was the prime advocate of peace in Austria. When he's assassinated, his advocacy of peace is removed. If he lives he may not be so pacific after he and his wife had almost been killed. The blank check would be hard to get from Germany

Assuming no WWI, Austria could easily survive. Many of FF's reforms had support in the country and his main rivals, the Hungarian nobility, had little.
 

samcster94

Banned
I imagine this Austro-Hungarian Empire war to be something like the 1990's Balkans,but with 1910's technology and much worse. It'd be ironic if an alt- WWI happened anyway.
 

Anchises

Banned
I imagine this Austro-Hungarian Empire war to be something like the 1990's Balkans,but with 1910's technology and much worse. It'd be ironic if an alt- WWI happened anyway.

It doesn't have to be an alt-WW1.

I think an A-H breakup could have created a World War.

But the more interesting scenario for me is a political crisis that slowly devolves into Civil War. Outside powers would quickly intervene to claim their share. If A-H is up for "grabs" I would mostly agree with:

Austria (sans Berbenland), Styria, and Sudtirol sans the Trentino to Germany. Carniola and Istria go to Italy along with the Trentino. Gallicia goes to Russia. Bohemia, Moravia, (Austrian) Silesia, Bosnia and Dalmatia could go one of several ways. HUngary with Croatia-Slavonia I see getting independence.

The interesting question is the aftermath.

A series of small "successor wars" in the territories not swallowed by the Great Powers ? Tensions over conflicting Russian and German claims ?
 
It doesn't have to be an alt-WW1.

I think an A-H breakup could have created a World War.

But the more interesting scenario for me is a political crisis that slowly devolves into Civil War. Outside powers would quickly intervene to claim their share. If A-H is up for "grabs" I would mostly agree with:



The interesting question is the aftermath.

A series of small "successor wars" in the territories not swallowed by the Great Powers ? Tensions over conflicting Russian and German claims ?

I think a “Great Eastern War” or something like that is more likely. I doubt the French would go to war with Germany just to help Russia pick over the corpse of Austrian Poland.
 

Anchises

Banned
I think a “Great Eastern War” or something like that is more likely. I doubt the French would go to war with Germany just to help Russia pick over the corpse of Austrian Poland.

I agree.

But who would have fought in an Eastern War ? I honestly don't think that Imperial Russia would have been foolish enough to start a war without backing from France. And I doubt that France would have allowed Germany too win against Russia.

If Imperial Germany fights the Imperial Russia alone somwhere between 1917-1920 then I don't see any way for Russia to win or survive this war. If Germany is able to carve out a Brest-Litovsk sphere but without the carnage of the Western Front than France is going to have problems later down the line.

I don't think France could have accepted a German controlled Eastern Europe.
 
I agree.

But who would have fought in an Eastern War ? I honestly don't think that Imperial Russia would have been foolish enough to start a war without backing from France. And I doubt that France would have allowed Germany too win against Russia.

If Imperial Germany fights the Imperial Russia alone somwhere between 1917-1920 then I don't see any way for Russia to win or survive this war. If Germany is able to carve out a Brest-Litovsk sphere but without the carnage of the Western Front than France is going to have problems later down the line.

I don't think France could have accepted a German controlled Eastern Europe.

Wouldn’t the Russian army’s modernization and reforms have been mostly complete by 1917?
 

Anchises

Banned
Wouldn’t the Russian army’s modernization and reforms have been mostly complete by 1917?

I think so. But it is not like Germany could or would have neglected its military development.

I doubt that Tsarit Russia could have corrected the glaring weaknesses it displyed during WW1 in the span of 3-6 years.

Sure they might have fought harder but Germany has the advantage in all fields.
 

NoMommsen

Donor
Question :
Beside the one "famous" assasination attempt on Franz Josef in 1853 ... have there been any others ?

Google-search gives me only this one, but I am somehow unwilling to believe, that there weren't any more also or especially later on.
 
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