Prince Paul of Yugoslavia prevents his coup

Prince Paul of Yugoslavia supported his nation in building stronger ties with the Axis, instead of there traditional allies Great Britain and France. This along with his cousins 17th birthday lead to his overthrow and the collapse of royal Yugoslavia. But what if he prevented his overthrow, how would this alter the course of World War II?
 

yourworstnightmare

Banned
Donor
He'd have give up territories to Italy, Hungary and perhaps Bulgaria. I think that was a reason he was overthrown, the Yugoslav army wanted to go down fighting.
 
He'd have give up territories to Italy, Hungary and perhaps Bulgaria. I think that was a reason he was overthrown, the Yugoslav army wanted to go down fighting.


In those times giving Yugoslav territories wasnt that tragic considering the situation. Most of the inhabitants of Yugoslavia hated its guts, and nobody was perticularry willing to fight for it. Especially against the "Allmighty" Germans. And the coup was iniciated by British spies, actually.

"Yugoslav army wanted to go down fighting"
They basically didnt put up ANY resistance at all. Half of the nationes welcomed the Germans cause they thought they were liberating them from Serbian hegemony.
 
Prince Paul of Yugoslavia supported his nation in building stronger ties with the Axis, instead of there traditional allies Great Britain and France. This along with his cousins 17th birthday lead to his overthrow and the collapse of royal Yugoslavia. But what if he prevented his overthrow, how would this alter the course of World War II?


Well, if it became an Axis, the Germans wouldnt have to invade Yugoslavia. Many have said this was the reason for the Barbarossa campaign to land in such winter conditons, but many have disputed this as well. Afterall, German troops had to get to Greece somehow. But even if it did become a member of the Axis, the etnic enclaves in the country would decimate it vith constant ethinc wars. When the Germans declared war on Poland, it was really the end of the Kingdom of Yugoslavia one way or another.

I think without having divisions in the Balkans, the German defeat could have been slowed down at best.
 

yourworstnightmare

Banned
Donor
In those times giving Yugoslav territories wasnt that tragic considering the situation. Most of the inhabitants of Yugoslavia hated its guts, and nobody was perticularry willing to fight for it. Especially against the "Allmighty" Germans. And the coup was iniciated by British spies, actually.

"Yugoslav army wanted to go down fighting"
They basically didnt put up ANY resistance at all. Half of the nationes welcomed the Germans cause they thought they were liberating them from Serbian hegemony.

Sure, the Croats and Slovenes sure hated the Serbs, but they were seriously afraid of Italy, Hungary and Austria during the inter-war period. The only thing that kept Yugoslavia from falling apart was the fear of their neighbors.

Sure the coup was initiated by Britain, but there had to be one reason the coup makers would listen to the British, and many in the Serbian military still held the "territorial integrity of the Yugoslav nation" as a holy duty, and resented a approach towards the Axis, and territorial concessions.

That the Germans were welcomed is not entirely true, sure the Croat fascists considered them liberators, but most of the Croat political leadership denounced the Axis powers as "the new Serbs".
 
He'd have give up territories to Italy, Hungary and perhaps Bulgaria. I think that was a reason he was overthrown, the Yugoslav army wanted to go down fighting.

I'm not so sure about this. AFAIK the Germans wanted a pliant, quiet Yugoslavia that continued to shp them raw materials.
 
Sure, the Croats and Slovenes sure hated the Serbs, but they were seriously afraid of Italy, Hungary and Austria during the inter-war period. The only thing that kept Yugoslavia from falling apart was the fear of their neighbors.

Sure the coup was initiated by Britain, but there had to be one reason the coup makers would listen to the British, and many in the Serbian military still held the "territorial integrity of the Yugoslav nation" as a holy duty, and resented a approach towards the Axis, and territorial concessions.

That the Germans were welcomed is not entirely true, sure the Croat fascists considered them liberators, but most of the Croat political leadership denounced the Axis powers as "the new Serbs".

Fear of Austria? Hungary? They wouldnt be able to conquer a hot-dog stand in the inter-war period. It was the fear of Italy that pushed the former AH parts into Yugoslavia. And the Italians ended up getting what they want from the Serbs anyway. The only thing what kept Yugoslavia from falling apart was its repression and Army. The Slovenians, Croatians and Bosnians had demonstrations and unrest on a monthly basis. They would have exited anyday if the Serbs wouldnt send their troops.

Basically it was thier refusal to enter the Axis that caused the concessions. If Yugoslavia was an Axis member, the Bulgarians and Hungarians would have got squat, cause most of their gains was granted by their right of conquest. The Italians got more in the way of land only because they brought Pavelić in power in NDH, who had an agreement to trade land for power. Without the NDH, you dont have the cause for Italian gains in the Adriatic.
 
Assuming Paul stays in power, and Yugoslavia joins the Axis, I don't see the course of the war changing all that much. Greece is probably still invaded, but a lack of "Operation Revenge" only speeds up Barbarossa by a week maybe two at most. This extra time doesn't give the German's Moscow by a long shot, especially considering the weather during that time.

What really changes is the post-war situation in the Balkans. In all likelihood, Yugoslavia will no longer exist following the Second World War. Instead, I'd wager there's going to be some REALLY bloody population transfers and the creation of several statelets (Croatia, Slovenia, Serbia etc.) out of the remnants of Yugoslavia.
 
I think that Yugoslavia was supposed to aid the Germans in Greece, and get as a reward Salonika and Greek Macedonia.
The question is what does Yugoslavia do next, I don't see them sending troops on the Eastern front, though the SS might still recruit Croats and Bosniaks like in OTL.
It is most likely that they declare war only on the Western Allies like Bulgaria did.
What happens however after the end of the war?
OTL Yugoslav communists were great supporters of Yugoslav unity so I don't see partition as very likely.
However if Yugoslavia is taken by the Soviets instead of the Partisans, there will be a much more Soviet aligned Yugoslavia.
 
I think that Yugoslavia was supposed to aid the Germans in Greece, and get as a reward Salonika and Greek Macedonia.
The question is what does Yugoslavia do next, I don't see them sending troops on the Eastern front, though the SS might still recruit Croats and Bosniaks like in OTL.
It is most likely that they declare war only on the Western Allies like Bulgaria did.

I assume that this would be Yugoslav involvement instead of, as opposed to alongside, Bulgarian action in Greece?
 

Susano

Banned
I'm not so sure about this. AFAIK the Germans wanted a pliant, quiet Yugoslavia that continued to shp them raw materials.

Perhaps, but I dont think they would want to alienate Italy over it. Italys irredentism about Dalmatia was why Italy felt cheated by the Paris Suburb Peaces in the first place, helping to give rise to extreme nationalism and fascism. So I would say it is a rather important issue for Italy.
 
Perhaps, but I dont think they would want to alienate Italy over it. Italys irredentism about Dalmatia was why Italy felt cheated by the Paris Suburb Peaces in the first place, helping to give rise to extreme nationalism and fascism. So I would say it is a rather important issue for Italy.


The problem with your premise is that the Italians were given Dalmatia by a contract with the NDH. It was not in accordance with Germany over the division of Yugoslavia. As of now, there is no proof Yugoslavia would have to give anyone anything by entering the Axis.
 
The problem with your premise is that the Italians were given Dalmatia by a contract with the NDH. It was not in accordance with Germany over the division of Yugoslavia. As of now, there is no proof Yugoslavia would have to give anyone anything by entering the Axis.

The problem with your idea is that Slovakia's fate in '38 and Romania's in '40 show that Hitler had no qualms about breaking pieces off one ally to satisfy another. I don't know whether or not Yugoslavia will have to give up any territory to Germany, Hungary or Bulgaria, but an increase in the Italian share of Dalmatia (they already controlled Zara/Zadar) is likely.
 
The problem with your idea is that Slovakia's fate in '38 and Romania's in '40 show that Hitler had no qualms about breaking pieces off one ally to satisfy another. I don't know whether or not Yugoslavia will have to give up any territory to Germany, Hungary or Bulgaria, but an increase in the Italian share of Dalmatia (they already controlled Zara/Zadar) is likely.


Its fairly questionable if Hitler would have looked on the map of Yugoslavia for a second if it was all peacefull and cooperative. Sure, Mussolini would have probably wanted some land, but just like the NDH-Italy accord, it would have been a matter between Yugoslavia and Italy. Afterall, the Serbs wanted that sea as bad as the Italians did.
 

Markus

Banned
Does anybody know what the Germans actually demanded from the Yugos? Wiki says the right to move troops through their country. A book even indicates Germany guaranteed their territorrial integrity.
 
Its fairly questionable if Hitler would have looked on the map of Yugoslavia for a second if it was all peacefull and cooperative. Sure, Mussolini would have probably wanted some land, but just like the NDH-Italy accord, it would have been a matter between Yugoslavia and Italy. Afterall, the Serbs wanted that sea as bad as the Italians did.

But this is the sort of thing that Hitler did. He was under no obligation to interfere in the disputes over Slovakia, Ruthenia, Transylvania, and the Cadrilateral, yet he did. He'll very likely do the same for Dalmatia. He won't let it be a matter between Italy and Yugoslavia because that risks leading to an attack by the former against the latter, and that's exactly the sort of situation in which the Fuhrer invited his allies to Vienna to award territory to the most likely aggressor and thus keep the peace within his camp.

With fascist Croatia in OTL Mussolini was holding all the cards - Hitler hadn't even wanted a Croatian puppet initially, wishing to hand them over to Hungary. Mussolini was able to secure some nice possessions east of the Adriatic and sabotage Croatian designs on Montenegro and the Sandzak. With Yugoslavia in TTL he will have a fight - the recent fiasco in Greece showed that Italy was in no position to make offers that couldn't be refused. And another fight in the Balkans to delay Barbarossa is exactly what Hitler doesn't want right now.

So the outcome will be quite simple. After the subjugation of Greece, Mussolini will make demands on Dalmatia, on the pretext of protecting the rights of Italians in the region. (A very unpopular treaty in the late '20s forced Yugoslavia to allow Italian immigration, but even so Mussolini will have to inflate their numbers.) Germany will be facing the prospect of a war it doesn't need. There will be a meeting between King Paul and some high-ranking Nazi, maybe Hitler himself, in which it will be made clear to him that the 3rd Reich is very displeased at his country having the impudence of being the target of Italian imperial designs. He will be given the choice between a German arbitration which, given Paul's lack of demands towards Italy, will maintain the status quo at best or give Mussolini everything he wants at worst, and Hitler joining with Mussolini in an attack on Yugoslavia to ensure a quick victory, a threat made in the hope that it will not have to be carried out.
 
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But this is the sort of thing that Hitler did. He was under no obligation to interfere in the disputes over Slovakia, Ruthenia, Transylvania, and the Cadrilateral, yet he did. He'll very likely do the same for Dalmatia. He won't let it be a matter between Italy and Yugoslavia because that risks leading to an attack by the former against the latter, and that's exactly the sort of situation in which the Fuhrer invited his allies to Vienna to award territory to the most likely aggressor and thus keep the peace within his camp.

With fascist Croatia in OTL Mussolini was holding all the cards - Hitler hadn't even wanted a Croatian puppet initially, wishing to them over to Hungary. Mussolini was able to secure some nice possessions east of the Adriatic and sabotage Croatian designs on Montenegro and the Sandzak. With Yugoslavia in TTL he will have a fight - the recent fiasco in Greece showed that Italy was in no position to make offers that couldn't be refused. And another fight in the Balkans to delay Barbarossa is exactly what Hitler doesn't want right now.

So the outcome will be quite simple. After the subjugation of Greece, Mussolini will make demands on Dalmatia, on the pretext of protecting the rights of Italians in the region. (A very unpopular treaty in the late '20s forced Yugoslavia to allow Italian immigration, but even so Mussolini will have to inflate their numbers.) Germany will be facing the prospect of a war it doesn't need. There will be a meeting between King Paul and some high-ranking Nazi, maybe Hitler himself, in which it will be made clear to him that the 3rd Reich is very displeased at his country having the impudence of being the target of Italian imperial designs. He will be given the choice between a German arbitration which, given Paul's lack of demands towards Italy, will maintain the status quo at best or give Mussolini everything he wants at worst, and Hitler joining with Mussolini in an attack on Yugoslavia to ensure a quick victory, a threat made in the hope that it will not have to be carried out.

Hitler is an ass, we now. But it seems the Rumaians didnt really put up a fight when this happened to them, so my best bet is that if Yuga went into the Axis, Italy would get what they got in OTL, and nobody in the government that OK-ed this outcome would be pissed. Only the Croatians would be. Sure, the generals wanted territorial integrity, but better lose Dalmatia then loose the entire country.

But the question is if this would have changed the course of the war. I think this would only delay the German defeat, but not by that much.

There is one problem though. The Croatian Banovina exsisted in Yugoslavia, and they never really liked the Serbs. I dont think they would love the fact Serbs traded Croatian territory for their own goals. An early 90`s type war could happen when the Italians get defeated and teh Germans start loosing. If the Croats get the status of fighting a fachist government, the Allies might give them their own country after the war.
 
But it seems the Rumaians didnt really put up a fight when this happened to them,

We didn't put up a fight because the alternative to the humiliating events of June-September 1940 was a fate similar to the one Yugoslavia would later have. Bessarabia and the Bukovina to the USSR, Transylvania to Hungary, the Dobruja and Cadrilater to Bulgaria, and a German occupation and economic subjugation of the remainder of Romania. And I don't see what your point is supposed to be regardless.

so my best bet is that if Yuga went into the Axis, Italy would get what they got in OTL, and nobody in the government that OK-ed this outcome would be pissed.

Italy is not a military behemoth, not after the recent humiliation in the war against Greece. Without German pressure Yugoslavia will give them nothing and Italy will attack, and then it will be the Greek situation all over again for Hitler. I don't see why this is difficult for you to understand. Short of Mussolini abstaining from making demands on Yugoslavia, which I don't expect the dumbass to do, the situation is set up for Germany to intervene diplomatically. Hitler does not want to have to bail out Mussolini out of another Balkan mess and its precisely because of the last one that Yugoslavia will resist pressure from Italy alone.

The deal that you expect will not happen because Italy alone cannot dictate it. Forget your prejudices about the mighty Western empire bullying the puny Eastern European country. They don't apply to Italy in the spring of '41.
 
We didn't put up a fight because the alternative to the humiliating events of June-September 1940 was a fate similar to the one Yugoslavia would later have. Bessarabia and the Bukovina to the USSR, Transylvania to Hungary, the Dobruja and Cadrilater to Bulgaria, and a German occupation and economic subjugation of the remainder of Romania. And I don't see what your point is supposed to be regardless.



Italy is not a military behemoth, not after the recent humiliation in the war against Greece. Without German pressure Yugoslavia will give them nothing and Italy will attack, and then it will be the Greek situation all over again for Hitler. I don't see why this is difficult for you to understand. Short of Mussolini abstaining from making demands on Yugoslavia, which I don't expect the dumbass to do, the situation is set up for Germany to intervene diplomatically. Hitler does not want to have to bail out Mussolini out of another Balkan mess and its precisely because of the last one that Yugoslavia will resist pressure from Italy alone.

The deal that you expect will not happen because Italy alone cannot dictate it. Forget your prejudices about the mighty Western empire bullying the puny Eastern European country. They don't apply to Italy in the spring of '41.



So what we get is Yuga joining Axis, Mussolini making claimes on Dalmatia, Hitler backing him up, and Mussolini getting Dalmatia.

Does this make Yugoslavia a stable Axis? No.
Does this avoid ethnic mayhem? No.
Does the extra time help Hitler win the war? No.
Do the extra troops not guarding Yugoslavian territories bring victory to the Axis? No, but it could bring more casualties to both the Axis & Allies, and may slow down the defeat of the Axis. And for all we know they might just end up there anyway.

The only thing that could happen is a Soviet/Western divide with eithar Slovenia and Croatia ending up on the West, or just Slovenia ending up in the West.
 
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