Ok, that is bad, becasue the fighters are at ea level when they need to be at a high altitude. In this case it would be the other way round; just they have to get down. Since diving is faster than climbing, this is no problem, especially not with radar giving you an early warning and almost 30 minutes time between the two waves.
Let´s see: First 16 Nells(max. 233mph) and later 26 Bettys(270mph) vs a total of 21 Sea Hurricanes(320mph) and Fulmars(272mph). So, what kind of CAP could we expect? 4 to 6 fighters -mainly Hurricanes- guarding the more exposed BBs, another 4 to protect the CV, the remaining fighters refueling or ready for take off? The japanese planes will be detected by radar and slowed down by their heavy torpedoes. I assume the FAA-pilots were well trained and had reliable guns. IMO even four Hurricanes could do hellish damage to the first wave. 50% losses sound like a low estimate.
Markus
Going from my Command at Sea naval wargaming rules scenario for the 10th Jan '41 attack on Illustrious out of a total of 15 Fulmars carried 4 were on CAP & 2 Swordfish (24 carried) & 4 Fulmars were about to be launched but don't appear to have been during the air attacks of some 20 mins duration.
Extrapolating gives 12-13 fighters available for Force Z if the Indomitable turns into the wind to launch more ready fighters to back up the CAP.
You raise a good point about the ability of the fighters to dive down on the Japanese torpedo bombers (in the case of Illustrious the CAP followed the SM.79s for 20nm damaging 1 & leaving themselves well out of position).
My doubts are as follows;
Actual operations in the Med had RN carriers safetly stowing a/c ,emptying fuel lines etc to rendor the carrier as physically safe as possible & relying on AA fire as the primary means to drive off air attacks rather than attempting to swarm as many fighters as possible.
Adm Phillips was operating on the basis of faulty intelligence indicating the air threat was at the same level as the Italians which he took as level bombing attacks within 200 miles.
What would be the fuel status of the CAP after engaging the 1st wave?
Would Indomitable be able to turn into the wind to launch more ready fighters or would Adm Philips have other priorities in view of the limited scale & effectiveness of air attacks expected?
My slap the forehead moment came when I thought what would be the effect if the CAP fighters were able to down any shadowing Japanese a/c?
Would Force Z be able to escape air attack altogether or had it already been spotted by submarine?
Incidently those Comand at Sea rules really don't like the .303mg. It rates 4 x .50's as an attack rating of 1.6 while 8 x .303 as only 0.7. As for ammo capacity it gives the Fulmars 500 rounds per gun & the Sea Hurricanes 334 rounds per gun.