Prince of Wales and the Repulse

randomkeith

Banned
What if the new British aircraft carrier the Indomitable had not run aground in Bermuda but gone east with them to protect Fortress Singapore as originally planned. Is there anyway these ships could have avioded destruction and would it be possible for them to enable Singapore to hold out against the Japanese long enough to be relieved???????
 
Would Ad. Phillips have still been in command if the carrier was present? If not then I'd suggest the FEF would have been able to achieve something before being sunk.

Personally I think the best scope for successful action for the Pow & R would be with the RN/ADBA naval forces in their running fights with the IJN through the NEI.
 
Sorry, I work for the govt, everything is an acronym.
I think Admiral Phillips was incompetent, which is the main reason the Prince of Wales (PoW) and Repulse (R) were sunk. He sailed into the teeth of an enemy airfleet years after Norway, Crete and the Med showed that this wasn't profitable. Using semantics like no capital ship had been sunk, or that they weren't expecting torpedoes doesn't cut it. If phillips was in command the carrier would have sailed north and been sunk with no result too. Anyway, apart from the unlikely event of destroying the landing craft Singapore was lost becuase of the land campaign.

I think the best scope for the PoW & R was to follow the suggestion that they should disappear into the wastes of the Indian Ocean. The Royal Navy (RN) could have gathered a considerable number of ships around the PoW & R, including the 8" cruiser Exeter and 2 Australian 6" cruisers. If these joined the American, British, Dutch, Australia (ABDA) such a force would be strong enough to take on one of the smaller Imperial Japanese Naval (IJN) which escorted the invasions of the Netherlands East Indies (NEI).

Not much I know, but set against what hapened IOTL sinking an IJN naval force of destroyers and cruisers and turning back or destroying an invasion convoy ranks as a significant success.
 

randomkeith

Banned
That would make sense. Could they have ben used in a Dunkirk style rescue operation out of Singapore to say Rangoon, instead. With the fighter from Indomitable providing air cover. Although by the time they realise Singapore is doomed it'd probally be to late.
 

CalBear

Moderator
Donor
Monthly Donor
The presence of a carrier might have allowed the PoW & Repulse to have scored a major victory in the war's first days. This assumes that the IJN did not shift even more forces to the AO in response to the carrier.

The attack that resulted in the loss of Force Z's two capital ships was conducted by only 88 aircraft, none of them fighters. The presence of some Gladiators could have allowed the ships to survive, at least the first attacks. The carrier herself would also have drawn the majority odf the IJN's attention in any air attacks, also making survival of at least one of the capital ships a possibility.

More importantly, an organic air element would have allowed the TF commander a far better tactical picture immediately after onset of hostilities. The seaborne section of the Malay invasion force was still on the water, and very vulnerable, on December 8, the Pow & Repulse could have savaged this force, if they had simply known where it was. If you look at the movements of Force Z, you can not help but be struck by how close the force came to finding and, presumably, destroying the invasion fleet.

There are so many mights, coulds & mays involved in the Force Z + carrier scenario that it is hard to properly judge the results. The possibilities range from no difference from OTL to Singapore not falling at all & the DEI never being captured, with the massive changes implied from that POD. Somewhere between the two extremes lies the most likely result, but where that line falls could have enormous impact on the Pacific War.
 
The presence of a carrier might have allowed the PoW & Repulse to have scored a major victory in the war's first days. This assumes that the IJN did not shift even more forces to the AO in response to the carrier.

The attack that resulted in the loss of Force Z's two capital ships was conducted by only 88 aircraft, none of them fighters. The presence of some Gladiators could have allowed the ships to survive, at least the first attacks. The carrier herself would also have drawn the majority odf the IJN's attention in any air attacks, also making survival of at least one of the capital ships a possibility.

More importantly, an organic air element would have allowed the TF commander a far better tactical picture immediately after onset of hostilities. The seaborne section of the Malay invasion force was still on the water, and very vulnerable, on December 8, the Pow & Repulse could have savaged this force, if they had simply known where it was. If you look at the movements of Force Z, you can not help but be struck by how close the force came to finding and, presumably, destroying the invasion fleet.

Firstly Indomitable wouldn't have been operating any Sea Gladiators, its difficult to tell as its first missions were transporting RAF Hurricane's but a fighter complement of 12 Sea Hurricanes and 9 Fulmars seems reasonable.
As a brand new carrier its airgroup would of course be relatively inexperienced unless previously battle hardened squadrons were included.
I'm not sure about the radar situation for Force Z including Indomitable & even with early warning its likely Adm Phillips would go along with the old safe storage of the air group being more important than getting extra fighters in the air. Its quite possible only 4-6 fighters already on CAP would be engaged.
I'll have to check up on the progression of the Japanese air attack. As Adm Phillips was only expecting level bombing attacks on a par with previous Italian performance the CAP could be out of position for combating the torpedo attacks. I do completely agree with you that Indomitable would be a priority target and based on the Ark Royal & latter Illustrious class damage one very vulnerable to torpedo damage, 1-2 hits should be sufficient depending upon location.
All of this may enable PoW to avoid fatal damage although probably still suffering from dangerous progressive flooding. Repulse should still be operational. However I'm sceptical about the likely success of even a full strength Force Z against the invasion convoys due to the strong Japanese cruiser/destroyer escort, allied ignorance of the Long Lance torpedo & the very weak destroyer screen for Force Z, especially one weakened by air attack. Nontheless they may get lucky & will do some damage but I just can't see a Force Z with Indomitable sunk & PoW crippled carrying on with its mission.
Just my 2 pence worth of speculation I know, I must do some re reading on the exact chronology of the Japanese air attack.
 

Markus

Banned
Soren, the japanese torpedo bombers were twin-engined, land-bases models. Butch O´Hara torched five or six of them on his own a few month later. Even a few Sea Hurricanes might turn the situation around. Especially if the CV is operating some distance behind the PoR and R and thus not spotted by the sub.
By the way PoW had radar, that might help getting the CAP in the right place.
 

CalBear

Moderator
Donor
Monthly Donor
Firstly Indomitable wouldn't have been operating any Sea Gladiators, its difficult to tell as its first missions were transporting RAF Hurricane's but a fighter complement of 12 Sea Hurricanes and 9 Fulmars seems reasonable.
As a brand new carrier its airgroup would of course be relatively inexperienced unless previously battle hardened squadrons were included.
I'm not sure about the radar situation for Force Z including Indomitable & even with early warning its likely Adm Phillips would go along with the old safe storage of the air group being more important than getting extra fighters in the air. Its quite possible only 4-6 fighters already on CAP would be engaged.
I'll have to check up on the progression of the Japanese air attack. As Adm Phillips was only expecting level bombing attacks on a par with previous Italian performance the CAP could be out of position for combating the torpedo attacks. I do completely agree with you that Indomitable would be a priority target and based on the Ark Royal & latter Illustrious class damage one very vulnerable to torpedo damage, 1-2 hits should be sufficient depending upon location.
All of this may enable PoW to avoid fatal damage although probably still suffering from dangerous progressive flooding. Repulse should still be operational. However I'm sceptical about the likely success of even a full strength Force Z against the invasion convoys due to the strong Japanese cruiser/destroyer escort, allied ignorance of the Long Lance torpedo & the very weak destroyer screen for Force Z, especially one weakened by air attack. Nontheless they may get lucky & will do some damage but I just can't see a Force Z with Indomitable sunk & PoW crippled carrying on with its mission.
Just my 2 pence worth of speculation I know, I must do some re reading on the exact chronology of the Japanese air attack.

Was the Sea Hurricane deployed to fleet carriers in November of 1941 (when the carrier would have put to sea)? Information on the 'Net seems to indicate that the IIB/C was not even put into production until early 1942. The Hurricanes delivered to Singapore were crated and assembled on site.

The Japanese invasion force did have a strong escort (six cruisers, seven destroyers), but there wasn't a ship in it that was a match for either of the British capital ships. The British also had radar, something the Japanese lacked. Once the IJN vessels got close, assuming they did, the Long Lances would have done their work, but at long range WW II torpedoes were very much a shot in the dark. You guessed where the enemy would be ten minutes into the future and shot at that point, hoping for the best. Given the difficulty that the invaderd had in taking the beaches without being molested, there is a chance that the outcome could have been very different.

The invasion of Singapore, like many of the other victories during the war's first couple of months, had a large element of good fortune for the Japanese. While they made some of their own luck, they were still quite lucky to have everything go just as planned (something that turned and bit them in May & June of 1942).
 
Soren, the japanese torpedo bombers were twin-engined, land-bases models. Butch O´Hara torched five or six of them on his own a few month later. Even a few Sea Hurricanes might turn the situation around. Especially if the CV is operating some distance behind the PoR and R and thus not spotted by the sub.
By the way PoW had radar, that might help getting the CAP in the right place.

Markus

I'm aware of the vulnerability of the unescorted heavily loaded Japanese torpedo bombers I'm just assuming a half dozen or so FAA fighters available could be out of position due to the earlier arrival of the Japanese high level bombers. I'm thnking a reversal of the situation when Illustrious was heavily damaged by Stuka attack. The CAP in that instance was dragged away by Italian torpedo bombers before the arrival of the Stuka's. Incidently Illustrious was operating in the middle of the Med fleet task force at the time. Certianly pre war exercises involving Ark Royal had her close up with the main fleet with emphasis on her adding her AA firepower rather than on fighter defence. With the shortage of escorting destroyers I can't see Adm Phillips having much choice but for Indomitable to be close at hand. Again he was only expecting a high level bombing attack, why hold the CAP back for an unanticipated threat?
I'm don't think that the average FAA or US pilot will be knocking Japanese planes down at the rate of O'Hara but if in the right place to intercept the torpedo bombers the main advantage of a few fighters would be frustrating their attacks.
 
Was the Sea Hurricane deployed to fleet carriers in November of 1941 (when the carrier would have put to sea)? Information on the 'Net seems to indicate that the IIB/C was not even put into production until early 1942. The Hurricanes delivered to Singapore were crated and assembled on site.

The Japanese invasion force did have a strong escort (six cruisers, seven destroyers), but there wasn't a ship in it that was a match for either of the British capital ships. The British also had radar, something the Japanese lacked. Once the IJN vessels got close, assuming they did, the Long Lances would have done their work, but at long range WW II torpedoes were very much a shot in the dark. You guessed where the enemy would be ten minutes into the future and shot at that point, hoping for the best. Given the difficulty that the invaderd had in taking the beaches without being molested, there is a chance that the outcome could have been very different.

The invasion of Singapore, like many of the other victories during the war's first couple of months, had a large element of good fortune for the Japanese. While they made some of their own luck, they were still quite lucky to have everything go just as planned (something that turned and bit them in May & June of 1942).

Cal Bear

Had a quick check on the web & Wiki listing over 300 Sea Hurricane's operating solely from MAC ships in this time period raised my eye brows. I was thinking in my initial post of Sea Hurricanes providing the backbone of the Eastern Fleets fighter defence later in '42 & was aware that Indomitable's first use was delivering RAF Hurricane's (still with big bulky sand filters on I believe). However perservering I found the following site;
http://www.fleetairarmarchive.net/Ships/Indomitable.html

If the link doesn't work I found it as the 10th listed result under a MSN search for HMS Indomitable.

It credits Indomitable in Nov'41 with;
9 Sea Hurricane IB's (0880 Sqd)
12 Fulmar's (0800 Sqd)
24 Albacores (0827 & 0831 Sqd's)

The site looked pretty good to me, when I have the time I'll have to check out the squadron histories.

I appreciate the Long Lance torpedo's reputation for some devasting effects against allied cruisers & destroyers can mask the many times it failed to produce such a result but the very weak screen of Force Z makes me doubt that all the Japanese escorts could be kept at arms length despite the PoW's gunnery radar. This becomes more problematic if the addition of Indomitable does not fend off the Japanese air attack. I'm think possibly Indomitable sunk (& possibly a destroyer left behind to pick up survivors?) & PoW damaged still. I've no doubt Force Z if given the opportunity would have given a very credible account of itself in a surface action but much as I'd like to be a don't feel overly optimistic that they could do enough to upset the Japanese invasion plans sufficiently. (I would really like the 18th (East Anglian) division from my home region to be given a better chance than it got believe me!)
 
The Japanese invasion force did have a strong escort (six cruisers, seven destroyers), but there wasn't a ship in it that was a match for either of the British capital ships. The British also had radar, something the Japanese lacked. Once the IJN vessels got close, assuming they did, the Long Lances would have done their work, but at long range WW II torpedoes were very much a shot in the dark. You guessed where the enemy would be ten minutes into the future and shot at that point, hoping for the best. Given the difficulty that the invaderd had in taking the beaches without being molested, there is a chance that the outcome could have been very different.

Didn't the Japanese have Kongo and one of her sisters, Haruna, I think, in the vicinity specifically hunting for the two British capital ships.
 

Markus

Banned
Markus

I'm aware of the vulnerability of the unescorted heavily loaded Japanese torpedo bombers I'm just assuming a half dozen or so FAA fighters available could be out of position due to the earlier arrival of the Japanese high level bombers. I'm thnking a reversal of the situation when Illustrious was heavily damaged by Stuka attack. The CAP in that instance was dragged away by Italian torpedo bombers before the arrival of the Stuka's.

Ok, that is bad, becasue the fighters are at ea level when they need to be at a high altitude. In this case it would be the other way round; just they have to get down. Since diving is faster than climbing, this is no problem, especially not with radar giving you an early warning and almost 30 minutes time between the two waves.


I'm don't think that the average FAA or US pilot will be knocking Japanese planes down at the rate of O'Hara but if in the right place to intercept the torpedo bombers the main advantage of a few fighters would be frustrating their attacks.
Let´s see: First 16 Nells(max. 233mph) and later 26 Bettys(270mph) vs a total of 21 Sea Hurricanes(320mph) and Fulmars(272mph). So, what kind of CAP could we expect? 4 to 6 fighters -mainly Hurricanes- guarding the more exposed BBs, another 4 to protect the CV, the remaining fighters refueling or ready for take off? The japanese planes will be detected by radar and slowed down by their heavy torpedoes. I assume the FAA-pilots were well trained and had reliable guns. IMO even four Hurricanes could do hellish damage to the first wave. 50% losses sound like a low estimate.
 
IMO even four Hurricanes could do hellish damage to the first wave. 50% losses sound like a low estimate.
even if they don't kill anything the CAP would force the Japanese formation to break up... hence the torpedo attack is much more poorly coordinated and there's much more chance of the capital ships dodging all the tinfish.
 

Markus

Banned
*slapsforehead* Damn, with just 21 fighters it makes much more sense for the three ships to stay together. In this case it is no problem at all to have six fighters in the air at any given time and another six ready for take-off.

And what prevented Butch O´Hare from shooting down even more bombers was running out of ammo. Cal.303 rounds are a quarter as heavy, half as long and 2/3 as wide as cal.50 ones. A Zero had 650 rounds for each nose mounted machine gun, an F4F-3 had 450 for each wing mounted gun.
 
And what prevented Butch O´Hare from shooting down even more bombers was running out of ammo. Cal.303 rounds are a quarter as heavy, half as long and 2/3 as wide as cal.50 ones. A Zero had 650 rounds for each nose mounted machine gun, an F4F-3 had 450 for each wing mounted gun.
But it'll usually take signifiantly more .303 rounds to do a similar level of damage to a given number of .50 rounds.... so that throws your estimates out of whack.
 

Markus

Banned
But it'll usually take signifiantly more .303 rounds to do a similar level of damage to a given number of .50 rounds.... so that throws your estimates out of whack.

No, the targets are not any twin engined bombers, but japanese bombers. If wikipedia is correct, even the Japanese ridiculed them for their total lack of armor and unprotected fuel tanks. Rifle caliber ammo will do just fine against flying gas cans.
 
Ok, that is bad, becasue the fighters are at ea level when they need to be at a high altitude. In this case it would be the other way round; just they have to get down. Since diving is faster than climbing, this is no problem, especially not with radar giving you an early warning and almost 30 minutes time between the two waves.


Let´s see: First 16 Nells(max. 233mph) and later 26 Bettys(270mph) vs a total of 21 Sea Hurricanes(320mph) and Fulmars(272mph). So, what kind of CAP could we expect? 4 to 6 fighters -mainly Hurricanes- guarding the more exposed BBs, another 4 to protect the CV, the remaining fighters refueling or ready for take off? The japanese planes will be detected by radar and slowed down by their heavy torpedoes. I assume the FAA-pilots were well trained and had reliable guns. IMO even four Hurricanes could do hellish damage to the first wave. 50% losses sound like a low estimate.

Markus
Going from my Command at Sea naval wargaming rules scenario for the 10th Jan '41 attack on Illustrious out of a total of 15 Fulmars carried 4 were on CAP & 2 Swordfish (24 carried) & 4 Fulmars were about to be launched but don't appear to have been during the air attacks of some 20 mins duration.
Extrapolating gives 12-13 fighters available for Force Z if the Indomitable turns into the wind to launch more ready fighters to back up the CAP.
You raise a good point about the ability of the fighters to dive down on the Japanese torpedo bombers (in the case of Illustrious the CAP followed the SM.79s for 20nm damaging 1 & leaving themselves well out of position).
My doubts are as follows;
Actual operations in the Med had RN carriers safetly stowing a/c ,emptying fuel lines etc to rendor the carrier as physically safe as possible & relying on AA fire as the primary means to drive off air attacks rather than attempting to swarm as many fighters as possible.
Adm Phillips was operating on the basis of faulty intelligence indicating the air threat was at the same level as the Italians which he took as level bombing attacks within 200 miles.
What would be the fuel status of the CAP after engaging the 1st wave?
Would Indomitable be able to turn into the wind to launch more ready fighters or would Adm Philips have other priorities in view of the limited scale & effectiveness of air attacks expected?

My slap the forehead moment came when I thought what would be the effect if the CAP fighters were able to down any shadowing Japanese a/c?
Would Force Z be able to escape air attack altogether or had it already been spotted by submarine?

Incidently those Comand at Sea rules really don't like the .303mg. It rates 4 x .50's as an attack rating of 1.6 while 8 x .303 as only 0.7. As for ammo capacity it gives the Fulmars 500 rounds per gun & the Sea Hurricanes 334 rounds per gun.
 
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