Prince Juan of Asturias lives

If Prince Juan (1478-97), the only son of Ferdinand II of Aragon and Isabella I of Castile, didn't die at nineteen of either Tuberculosis or "sexual over-exertion" and continues to live a long time afterwards, the Burgundian Netherlands never pass into Spanish possession, which at least frees Spain from the affairs of northern Europe. The Holy Roman Empire retains the Burgundian Netherlands. What would result from this?
 
If Prince Juan (1478-97), the only son of Ferdinand II of Aragon and Isabella I of Castile, didn't die at nineteen of either Tuberculosis or "sexual over-exertion" and continues to live a long time afterwards, the Burgundian Netherlands never pass into Spanish possession, which at least frees Spain from the affairs of northern Europe. The Holy Roman Empire retains the Burgundian Netherlands. What would result from this?

Stronger Austrian Monarchy leading the HRE, possible centralization but probably not. Pretty much a more successful Spain without the Low Countries to tie it down, which should be noted that it cost Spain more to hold them than they were getting out of them.
 
Spain can focus more on holding down its American possessions than it has the cost of protecting the Burgundian inheritance. This means that the Habsburgs still are the primary force in the Empire; and whilst the lack of experienced soldiers fresh from the Reconquista is felt they still have the land and the capital to dominate it.
 
If the Habsburg's realms don't include the kingdoms of Spain, would they have recourse to jump on the Reformation bandwagon?

Without having to deploy troops to the Netherlands, would this allow them to concentrate more on North Africa and the Mediterranean?
 
If the Habsburg's realms don't include the kingdoms of Spain, would they have recourse to jump on the Reformation bandwagon?
It is very possible, and the butterflies would be really interesting. France would take the role of defender of catholic faith, getting probably the support from Spain. The English Church creation could be butterflied... would the English side with Spain and France?

Without having to deploy troops to the Netherlands, would this allow them to concentrate more on North Africa and the Mediterranean?
This one is quite sure. The Spanish Habsburg were pressed to make a more mediterranean policy. Spain would be more active in the Magreb, being able of keeping Tunis, Alger and bigger chunks of Morocco.

Please, could we have a TL?
 
It is very possible, and the butterflies would be really interesting. France would take the role of defender of catholic faith, getting probably the support from Spain. The English Church creation could be butterflied... would the English side with Spain and France?


This one is quite sure. The Spanish Habsburg were pressed to make a more mediterranean policy. Spain would be more active in the Magreb, being able of keeping Tunis, Alger and bigger chunks of Morocco.

Please, could we have a TL?

I'm sort of in between projects at the moment to be starting another. I am starting to think though that Spain and the Holy Roman Empire would have done better if they never shared the same sovereign in the person of Charles V Hapsburg.

Mind you, both were already decentralized. Spain was really a geographic term, with the American colonies were administratively run by the Crown of Castile while the Crown of Aragon already possessed an empire of sorts in the Mediterranean with Sardinia and the kingdoms of Sicily and Naples in its inheritance.

While the Hapsburgs, without having to retain the support of their Spanish subjects, could have been in a position to endorse the Reformation.
 
This is a very interesting turning point, since it is what the Catholic Monarchs' had intended to happen.

From the Spanish POV, it's a lot better. First, they could've concentrated in the Mediterranean and France. They'd have three fronts less: Germany, the Netherlands and England.
Second, they could'ce concentrated in becoming an Atlanctic, naval power focused on trade.

Also, part of the Spanish decadence was as a cause of breakup with the northern countries (England, the Netherlands). Adding to the loss of the lucrative commerce of the castilian wool, it's the area of the world where many important economical and technical advances would come to be in the following centuries.
Isabella, Ferdinand and even Charles V never intended to sever ties with this part of the world. If you look at the arrangements they made for their sons, they wanted to ally with Portugal, the Habsburg (who posessed hte Netherlands) and England (Charles advised his son to keep good relations with them, not to mention that he had him married to Mary I).
The whys: It was beneficial to the crown of Aragón to try to isolate France, and to Castile it was advisable to keep Portugal friendly and good relations with the countries they traded with.
I'd add that in Isabella's will she advised to go on conquering in Africa; she neverseems to have thought that the direction to go was land-grabbing in Europe.

It is interesting to think of what dynamics European politics would've had. France might have found it tougher to find allies.
 
I doubt that avoiding the Hapsburgs inheriting Spain would lead to them concentrating on the HRE and centralizing it. They'd still have to fight France and the Ottomans - only this time without Spain to help them. This should apply no matter whether they endorse reformation or not.

Nevertheless, protestant Hapsburgs are a major game changer. If Italy stays Catholic, the Hapsburgs have all reason to stay out of Italian affaires, whereas France is all in - against Spain. That's good for Hapsburg. Is it enough to centralize the HRE, though?

What certainly would be interesting are Hapsburg marriages ITTL.

I also think that protestant Hapsburgs would avoid the 30 years war. On the long term, this will greatly increase German population and hence German power once an empire centralizes. Without the catholic-protestant divide as strong as OTL, that butterflies away the Kleindeutsche Lösung anyway.

If the Hapsburgs go protestant, they'll also increase the likelihood of closely binding the Netherlands to Germany. That changes colonization patterns: Dutch traders plus German settlers.
 
Also, part of the Spanish decadence was as a cause of breakup with the northern countries (England, the Netherlands). Adding to the loss of the lucrative commerce of the castilian wool, it's the area of the world where many important economical and technical advances would come to be in the following centuries.

No, it is not. Really, the groundings of modern economic theories were set in Spain by the Neoescholastic School of Salamanca, the first steam machine that was registered was Jerónimo de Ayanz's machine in 1607 (arguably Blasco de Garay's ship in 1543), International Right as we know today is also the work of the School of Salamanca and the Leyes de Indias include, for instance, the first known regulation of the age at which a child could start to work.
A less pressed Spain could concentrate on these achievements instead of seeking military defeat of all the rest of Europe.
 
No, it is not. Really, the groundings of modern economic theories were set in Spain by the Neoescholastic School of Salamanca, the first steam machine that was registered was Jerónimo de Ayanz's machine in 1607 (arguably Blasco de Garay's ship in 1543), International Right as we know today is also the work of the School of Salamanca and the Leyes de Indias include, for instance, the first known regulation of the age at which a child could start to work.
A less pressed Spain could concentrate on these achievements instead of seeking military defeat of all the rest of Europe.

Not having to defend the Low Countries at all would also mean it gets to focus on the Americas and the Med. Still, they'd be rivals of France, given its ambitions in Italy.
 
Not having to defend the Low Countries at all would also mean it gets to focus on the Americas and the Med. Still, they'd be rivals of France, given its ambitions in Italy.

Sure. But they would have just to cover the Pyrenees border and Italy... and France would be needing Catholic allies. As Spain does not need Milan, I think an agreement could be reached with a pro-french northern Italy, a pro-spanish southern Italy and a buffer Papal States in the middle.
 
Sure. But they would have just to cover the Pyrenees border and Italy... and France would be needing Catholic allies. As Spain does not need Milan, I think an agreement could be reached with a pro-french northern Italy, a pro-spanish southern Italy and a buffer Papal States in the middle.

That would require them being willing to compromise on the subject.

Given the ambitions of both countries, that might be easier said than done.

A question: Does Spain have any ties with Austria here? That could be interesting.
 
A question: Does Spain have any ties with Austria here? That could be interesting.

Yes, they would still have some ties. Juan was married to Margaret of Austria, the sister of Philip the Handsome. And by the time of his death Philip and Joanna of Aragon (sister of Juan) were already married. So while the Habsburgs won't inherit Castile they and the Trastamaras are still family.
 
Yes, they would still have some ties. Juan was married to Margaret of Austria, the sister of Philip the Handsome. And by the time of his death Philip and Joanna of Aragon (sister of Juan) were already married. So while the Habsburgs won't inherit Castile they and the Trastamaras are still family.

That might mean a situation where Austria is looked to as a (long term) ally, especially as a fellow enemy of France. Maybe not a formal alliance, maybe one, but certainly common interest and few areas of competition.
 
No, it is not. Really, the groundings of modern economic theories were set in Spain by the Neoescholastic School of Salamanca, the first steam machine that was registered was Jerónimo de Ayanz's machine in 1607 (arguably Blasco de Garay's ship in 1543), International Right as we know today is also the work of the School of Salamanca and the Leyes de Indias include, for instance, the first known regulation of the age at which a child could start to work.
A less pressed Spain could concentrate on these achievements instead of seeking military defeat of all the rest of Europe.

I'm not sure what your point is.
I'm well aware of those achievements, and while it's quite sensible to think that the avoidance of continuous war would help fostering science at home (or at least paying attention to it, it serves nothing to have Azpilicueta and the others if you have not the conditions to apply their findings), it's still true that many financial and technical innovations happenned in the Netherlands (17th Century: the Stock Exchange, the Bank of Amsterdam, the East Indies Company) and Britain (18th Century: proto-industrial revolution, Adam Smith...)
Also, the Protestant mindset seems to have been more conductive to innovation than the Catholic, sadly.
 
Sure. But they would have just to cover the Pyrenees border and Italy... and France would be needing Catholic allies. As Spain does not need Milan, I think an agreement could be reached with a pro-french northern Italy, a pro-spanish southern Italy and a buffer Papal States in the middle.

The problem is that History shows that the Pope lacks the will or even the intention to act as a buffer, and that was already evident then. A France that has Milan is a France that has a free way to Naples and the possibility to force Genoa into its camp, in turn giving France strenght to project on Corsica and the Mediterranean and threaten Sardinia-Sicily-Naples from there too.

Also, Ferdinand II will continue to be king of Aragon until 1516 anyway, so the first round of Italian wars will happen in schedule and so will the conquest of Navarre with only one meaningless butterfly (that it is carried by a Castilian-Aragonese alliance rather than a Castilian-Aragonese personal union). Then we have the imperial election which is most likely to go the same way as in History and Francis II's reaction to that... Does he still go to war? Does he use it as an excuse to contest Italy and Navarre as IOTL too?

If yes, then Spain is on the war as an ally of the Empire. If not, France will still have to keep an eye on it because the alliance is fresh for at least a generation.
 
I'm not sure what your point is.
I'm well aware of those achievements, and while it's quite sensible to think that the avoidance of continuous war would help fostering science at home (or at least paying attention to it, it serves nothing to have Azpilicueta and the others if you have not the conditions to apply their findings), it's still true that many financial and technical innovations happenned in the Netherlands (17th Century: the Stock Exchange, the Bank of Amsterdam, the East Indies Company) and Britain (18th Century: proto-industrial revolution, Adam Smith...)
Also, the Protestant mindset seems to have been more conductive to innovation than the Catholic, sadly.

I think you're confusing the countries that were Protestant being also innovative with the Protestants being especially innovative. The Netherlands for instance were unusually heavily urban.
 
I'm not sure what your point is.
I'm well aware of those achievements, and while it's quite sensible to think that the avoidance of continuous war would help fostering science at home (or at least paying attention to it, it serves nothing to have Azpilicueta and the others if you have not the conditions to apply their findings), it's still true that many financial and technical innovations happenned in the Netherlands (17th Century: the Stock Exchange, the Bank of Amsterdam, the East Indies Company) and Britain (18th Century: proto-industrial revolution, Adam Smith...)
Also, the Protestant mindset seems to have been more conductive to innovation than the Catholic, sadly.

My point is exactly that in the XVI century it was the other way round. The first "modern" banks were based in Seville but they were killed by the Hapsburg kings. Scientific advances and economic prosperity has less to do with "catholic or protestant" than with stability and economic health.
 
I doubt that avoiding the Hapsburgs inheriting Spain would lead to them concentrating on the HRE and centralizing it. They'd still have to fight France and the Ottomans - only this time without Spain to help them. This should apply no matter whether they endorse reformation or not.

Nevertheless, protestant Hapsburgs are a major game changer. If Italy stays Catholic, the Hapsburgs have all reason to stay out of Italian affaires, whereas France is all in - against Spain. That's good for Hapsburg. Is it enough to centralize the HRE, though?

What certainly would be interesting are Hapsburg marriages ITTL.

I also think that protestant Hapsburgs would avoid the 30 years war. On the long term, this will greatly increase German population and hence German power once an empire centralizes. Without the catholic-protestant divide as strong as OTL, that butterflies away the Kleindeutsche Lösung anyway.

If the Hapsburgs go protestant, they'll also increase the likelihood of closely binding the Netherlands to Germany. That changes colonization patterns: Dutch traders plus German settlers.

IMHO the situation in the HRE and 'regaining' Bohemia and Hungary will be much more important without Spain. Although the French ambitions in Italy will still make the Habsburgs (HRE, Austria, 'Burgundy' ) and 'Spain' allies or at least in the Italian peninsula.

I doubt that making the Habsburgs annd/or the emperor protestant takes away all reasons for conflict or even solves it. Their also was a (large)political component in the decision of the princes of the empire to convert. These won't be taken away.

Furthermore even if the Habsburgs, the Netherlands and the Empire stay Catholic or become religiously divided, having an emperor focused on the empire with the Low Countries as one of his core territories would also bind the Low Countries closer to the rest of the Empire. Especially since the POD is before the Reformation, the beliefs of Erasmus, who wanted to reform the church from within, might influence the Habsburgs more.
Although I do agree with the effects on the colonization patterns.
 
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