Prince Henry of Prussia: Rise of the U-boat, Redux
- Thread starter BlondieBC
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BlondieBC
Banned
Yes, they are still being built. To avoid unnecessary butterflies and lots of writing work on my part, all ships built IOTL are still being built ITTL. While it would be a purer exercise to cancel around 30 million marks out of the German Naval budget, it would also require me repositioning a lot of ships for not much gain to the story. And I let the small butterflies overpower me in the first attempt a this ATL.
And that ship will still sink and die, on schedule.
BlondieBC
Banned
If they attack NYC, they would use the British Fleet. At this point, they are naval officers without ships. They are simply testing various ideas about port defenses, so all they really do when they switch navies is use a different map, change the paper tags on the wooden blocks, and use a different table to calculate results. IOTL, the Germans had a weapon to win WW1, but did not know how to use it. In my previous ATL and ITTL, the Germans will have slightly better ships but that is not the major impact of a POD, the Germans will have spent over a decade planning for a naval war. It is a long process to build tactical expertise and strategic planning ability.
As strange as it may sound, the Germans had no naval War Plans of any quality when WW1 started. It took them weeks to figure out how to layout the minefields for home port defense. They had no real doctrine for the U-boats. No comprehensive plan for AMC conversion. ITTL, the German Navy will enter the war with a War Plan, even if flawed. Even if at least 2, and probably 3 conflicting War Plans.
Ah, OK. Thought they were planning the High Seas Fleet burning NYC.
Actually, one idea that might be worth looking into is the idea of decoy AMCs. Ships that appear to be AMCs on paper, but in reality, aren't. So the RN or French Navy just sank a unarmed freighter, instead of that AMC they were gunning for.
BlondieBC
Banned
Nah, not yet. I know the benchmarks I need to hit to get to WW1 on time, and a lot of this stuff is to improve my writing skills for what I believe to be the much harder to write battle scenes. And I am trying to assigned as many actions as possible to understandable human motives. Prince Henry carves out a little bit of the German Navy as his personal command. And a few low ranking officers willing to go to Africa for a perceived faster career track. The AMC's are on hold for now because the officers of the Experimental Weapons command don't want to fight a power game with the more powerful surface commanders and the Naval League.
From a story writing perspective, it would just create too many potential butterflies if the Germans did any mass items with AMC's, so it will wait until later in the TL. And happen in Africa, which people watch less. A lot of the reason that I think I can ignore a lot of butterflies is that the actions I take are either smaller than actions of rival powers or are actions the UK admiralty thinks the Germans are taking anyway or actions the UK admiralty publicly recommend the Germans take.
At this point in time, the Germans are hiding nothing about the program. If the British Naval attache wanted to attend the meeting, he could participate in the war games. I doubt the British notice much of these actions, but if they do, they would not care. They would see a couple of officers trying to work out a port defense scheme that is much inferior to Portsmouths plans. The would see a submarine force being built slower than the French, with ports in worse locations, and behind on doctrinal issues.
BlondieBC
Banned
Thanks for the tip. These guys are too low ranking to have access to the plans that are the POD for this book. It really is 10 men in a basement trying to find useful things to do until the ships arrive.
Nice, and thank you for the earlier reply.
The thinking of attacks on New York or Vladivostok should also bring up the question of range and supplies. And the appropriate responses to the attacker. If say, the Japanese attack Pearl Harbor, not that they would ever be that idiotic
, but the force levels should indicate it. Also how long the "admiral" has to accomplish his task.
The thinking of attacks on New York or Vladivostok should also bring up the question of range and supplies. And the appropriate responses to the attacker. If say, the Japanese attack Pearl Harbor, not that they would ever be that idiotic
, but the force levels should indicate it. Also how long the "admiral" has to accomplish his task.BlondieBC
Banned
Nice, and thank you for the earlier reply.
The thinking of attacks on New York or Vladivostok should also bring up the question of range and supplies. And the appropriate responses to the attacker. If say, the Japanese attack Pearl Harbor, not that they would ever be that idiotic
Yes, range is much more of an issue than OTL, so you will over time see much longer range U-boats. The main driver is the need to be able to sail from Germany to Kamerun without refueling or with a minimum of refueling.
What is really driving the port exercises is the range of the ships. It will be several more years before they have U-boats capable of doing anything but port defense. With a surface range of 240 nm and a submerged range of 20 nm, attacking something 50 nm from port is a long, long trip. All at maybe 5 knots.
Oh, I wasn't offering a tip. I was just amused that someone was discussing a German attack on New York City in 1900-01 here. Which is precisely the premise of Conroy's (somewhat overcooked) alt-history novel.
Looking forward to your re-write here.
Shadow Master
Banned
I am doing a re-read ATM. What I had done in the past, was spot read posts in you ATL, and I must confess, I missed more than I learned doing that. I am currently about 20% through the old thread, and have enjoyed it for the most part. Something important that had eluded me until now, was how you cleverly moved the focus of the U-boat campaign to African waters, thus giving the UK hell, and avoiding the majority of at risk USA shipping. I have to say that that was well and truly an enjoyable aspect of your earlier version of this ATL. Also, the use of training ahead of time, planning, building capability in far flung parts of the empire, and the use of the surface ships/U boat combos, and indeed also the Zeppelins for spotting and communications, bravo!
When I tried to go through your ATL in the past, using the skipping method to attempt to get the feel for what was going on, I totally missed out on several of your very innovative concepts.
I am currently on page 12 (of 59), and am heading back in for more after I post this, and sorry for not getting back to you on this sooner, but I have been busy reading…
Once again though, thank you for taking the time to research and write a most interesting and thought provoking ATL, and for sharing it with the forum community!
BlondieBC
Banned
Thank you.
To be fair, the is a British Admiral long since deceased that I should give credit to as co-writer. I just did not keep the name. To maximize realism, I made some interesting choices. I intentionally avoid reading post war books. Along the way, I found this plan recommended by a British Admiral for the German Navy. It involved building fewer BB, more cruisers, and lot more smaller torpedo boats and U-boats. And he recommended putting them in colonies. After checking the French disposition of subs where about half were in colonies in North Africa. I am basically copying his plan with very limited funding and without cancelling the big ships of the High Seas Fleet.
As to the Zeppelins, they were a great naval weapon if used properly. In the Baltic, they were used effectively. And to some extent, they were used the same way in the North Sea. On clear days, they would watch smaller Russian or British ships lay mines, and then inform the mine sweepers who would then remove them within a few days. Also evidently, you can easily see minefields from about 3000 to 5000 feet in many water conditions. They were a weapon with a limited useful life, much like the mass bomber formation of B-17's in WW2. Most the Zeppelins bad reputation has to do with the Germans losing the war, IMO.
Part of my goal is to explain in clear, hopefully fun to read story, is the evolution of a merchant warfare strategy that works. A lot of the issue is that most people don't separate the attitudes and technology of WW2 subs with WW1 subs. In the first ATL in a rush to get the war, I sort of skipped most of these details. Over the years on various threads, it is clear to me that even many members of this board, these differences are not appreciated. For example, the average response time to a distress call over the radio was 12 hours in the home waters of the British. One a sub submerged, it was undetectable in the early part of the war. My current plan is to write a lot of small posts showing the strategy slowly evolve.
So what will help me most in writing the thread is for people to post when they don't understand why an action is being taken. That will allow me to adjust future story posts to cover these details.
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hipper
Banned
There are three main problems with a jeune ecole German navy based in Germany's colonys
The first is the lack of resupply. Each colony is on its own with no real opportunity for resupply so operations will slowly diminish then cease as fuel torpedos and spares are consumed.
The second problem is the fact that in OTL each colony will be invaded by overwhelming force. Meaning that as a long term strategy it's impractical.
The third problem is that any Jeune ecole problem can be solved by the application of Convoy. Which historically happened as soon as the problem became serious.
Regards Hipper
The first is the lack of resupply. Each colony is on its own with no real opportunity for resupply so operations will slowly diminish then cease as fuel torpedos and spares are consumed.
The second problem is the fact that in OTL each colony will be invaded by overwhelming force. Meaning that as a long term strategy it's impractical.
The third problem is that any Jeune ecole problem can be solved by the application of Convoy. Which historically happened as soon as the problem became serious.
Regards Hipper
Tyr Anazasi
Banned
Regarding to AMC: The German command was very aware of AMC and had even a list of them. However, these ships were mostly passenger liners not really able to do the job. Only later in ww1 freighters were used this way.
If you can read German I would also suggest to buy them:
https://www.amazon.de/Weyers-Tasche...keywords=weyers+taschenbuch+der+kriegsflotten
There are some good background data also in regards of economy and colonies.
If you can read German I would also suggest to buy them:
https://www.amazon.de/Weyers-Tasche...keywords=weyers+taschenbuch+der+kriegsflotten
There are some good background data also in regards of economy and colonies.
BlondieBC
Banned
All strategies have problems, and I am ok with people making mistakes ITTL. One thing we do too much in ATL is write near perfect leaders. Now to your point.
- Yes, supply is a major issue, and and it will begin to be addressed as the years past. But first take a step back, the Germans have quick win war plans. If the army does not worry about where the nitrates for the ammo will come from in the 6th month of the war, why would low level naval officers be concerned with this issue? Or at least, why would they let it sap their enthusiasm? In a modified Ecole where you are wearing out the enemy, the loss of men, ships, and bases is expected. And these problems lay in the future for these officers.
- Remember that the main enemy is France. Every division France sends to Africa at the start of a war is a division not fighting in Flanders. And IMO, you are greatly underestimating logistical challenges of engage in a quick 90-120 siege thousand of miles from home ports. If the port is quickly taken, it is a win because it makes the Army's job easier. If the port is left alone, it is a sore spot harassing French supply lines.
- Convoys are a partial solution. The biggest issue with convoys is that you immediately lose about 1/3 of freight capacity. Every strategy has a countermeasure. Every counter measure has its own counter measure.
BlondieBC
Banned
You are right that large passenger liners can be made into AMC's, and if the surface admirals had their way, they probably are converted first. But OTL shows that smaller, nondescript ships were often used. And that often it is the skill of the crew combined with a ship that can be made to look like many ships that is the key characteristic of successful raider.
This TL focus on moving up the learning curve of parts of the German Navy by a year or two, so it is possible that we will jump straight to freighter usage. Or maybe not. I have not yet written this part of the time line, and since it AMC were mostly handled in abstract in the first TL, i just don't have any details. Parts of this ATL are very quick to write because it is just writing the dialog and making writing decisions. Other things will require more work.
I can't read German
Supply is the major issue I see - not just of torps and fuel, but also spare parts (I can easily see most of these u-boats laid up for lack of parts by Christmas.) Of course, it depends on just how much in the way of stores the KM can sock away in each of these ports before war's outbreak. Whatever they have on Day One is all they can count on having. They run wild for a few months or so and then, well....hope the war is over.
I do think that the original timeline understated what the Allies could (and would) bring to bear in the African theaters, and overstated what the Germans could do by way of offensive action. But as for defense . . . I do not think it is all that difficult to generate a credible German defense of Duala, for example - Allied forces seized it by the end of September, but there was almost no German naval resistance to speak of, nor much of anything in the way of coastal artillery. They relied almost entirely on blockships and naval mines. Contrast with how long it took the Allies to secure the littoral of German East Africa - all because the KM happened to have a light cruiser (!) there. It took the British until July 1915 - nearly a full year! - to finally subdue her. Imagine what a squadron of submarines could do in both places.
In the end, of course, I do think the Allies would divert what was necessary to neutralize these forces and their ports, probably by sometime in late 1915. They were far too sensitive to their supply lines. But that is the point: Anything diverted from Europe or the Med helps Germany (and indeed Turkey) in the main theater.
Germany can't defend all of her colonies, of course. Togoland, the Marianas, Samoa and German New Guinea will be very hard to defend, or at least not likely worth the resources to make them defensible. But East Africa, Southwest Africa, and Kamerun certainly can. Tsingtao is a more marginal case, but worth exploring; German investment in development of the port makes it worth some effort at defense, and it's too tempting as a base for commerce raiding on Allied shipping in the Far East to resist.
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