Prince Charles Ascends or how a car accident saves Europe

A Belgium on the Allied side since October 39! It's really a boost for France. Basically the Dyle maneuver was a desperate attempt from the French high command to restore the defensive belt they lost when the Belgian got neutral.
I expect that there will be some sort of integrated command on the Allied side, but even if there isn't one, it will be infinitely better than OTL. There was basically no contact between the French and the Belgian outside some secret ones. For instance, France wasn't made aware that the Belgian changed their plans in the Ardennes and didn't intended to cover the sector (ouside some light troops).
But even now, I think the German should try the Sickle Cut. It's the simplest way for them to avoid a WW1 style campaign and associated the attrition they can't support on the long run.
Too late for that now, Germany is considerably outnumbered and the Allies are deep inside Germany. They tried a sickle cut but it didn't come off. Too many soldiers and tanks were lost in Belgium.


A few side remarks :

FCM-36 was discontinued in 38-39 after 100 or so were delivered.
Renault NC was discontinued in the early 30's!
The last batch of Renault D2 was at the end of delivery, so it's really likely that the production will stop no matter what in June or July.
Renault had switched from R35 to R40 on the production lines in the spring (Mars or April). The R40 tank have an improved gun (37 mm SA 38), giving it a real anti-tank capacity. It also have improved suspension, giving it far more reliability.
I agree with you for the B1 and the S-35.
You have forgotten the H-35/39! It's the light tank used in the armored divisions (DCR and DLM) because they were faster than the R35/40. As such, they had priority for the 37 mm SA 38. The goal was to produce 300 H39 a month from October 1940 onward. By the way, the H39 was selected for an industrial pool with the British and the Portuguese. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hotchkiss_H35#Operational_history
Junked, light tanks aren't considered that important in TTL and if necessary they will by M2 lights and now Stuarts. They are going for sheer numbers of their best tanks.

On France ordering aircraft from the US, they have really important orders already coming in : https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/British_Purchasing_Commission


OTL, France had already bought 120 B-24 as LB-30. They will possibly expand the command, but no B-17.


France has already received 40 and they have a further 50 in order, so it's possible for the Navy.
Those planes were shot down by now. They might well have gone with the B-24s but in TTL they switched to B-17s which are better and the US is cranking out in larger numbers than OTL
But don't forget the french made LN-401 and LN-411 (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Loire-Nieuport_LN.401). They have only one crew, which is a bonus given the scarce manpower of the Armée de l'Air. Their biggest problem is that they use the same engine than the D-520.
OTL, both types were trounced by the Luftwaffe (dive-bomber are very vulnerable if the airspace is heavily contested).
300 Vultee Vengeance were also on order.
They are going for large numbers of their very best. They are going with quantity over variety. If they really need any some more specialist planes they buy from the US.


Edit : After reading your entire timeline, I have a few more remarks :

I think you get the German to deeply in France.
If the Heer is in Cherbourg and Caen, it means that the Seine has been breech, so Paris is untenable rapidly. Plus, the way you describe the Eastern France Front going from Dijon to the Swiss border means the Maginot Line is completely lost and, with it, the whole north-east of France. It's something that France and its army can't recover from (as a significant fighting force).
The Heer bled out pretty badly in Belgium in TTL and more importantly, their logistical situation is MUCH worse. They had to expend far more shells, burn far more gas and had far more trucks blown up than OTL. Blitzkrieg tactics don't work as well when you are short of gas, short of shells and short of trucks. They were building more but it took too much time.

Don't get me wrong it's possible to breach the Maginot Line, but OTL the German did it after the French Withdraw all the interval troops and artillery. And I think ITTL the German will use those forces to breach the Front in Belgium.
Which they did, but were forced wider and wider due to circumstances. They simply could not fight on their terms so did the best they could in the circumstances. The French were forced to pull numbers from the Maginot Line to fight in Belgium so it was a bit weaker there than OTL.

All in all, I think that their will be a line on the Somme in the West, like OTL. They will breach it and take Le Havre, but the Allied counter-attack will isolate the spearhead.
In the East, I can see the German going deep in Champagne, taking Reims, Chalon and even Troyes
Possibly, but I would have to rewrite the entire TL to do that since I wrote that a long time ago. Right now they are in Germany.

I think you said 1940 instead of 1941 in all your posts since that one.
You are right I made a mistake.
I don't know if the Burmese Road will be that predominant, there is, after all, still a railroad open from Haiphong into China.
If anything, the Japanese will probably attack this one first.
And they are, the problem is that they have to now divide their attacks between two railroads. Japan wasn't exactly overflowing with equipment and supplies
 
Sept 15, 1941

After some discussions the Allies make the following demands.
1) German generals have to sign documents acknowledging not only their surrender but that the fact the war was hopeless.
2) The Nazi Party is to be disbanded.
3) The SS is to be disbanded with their war criminals to be delivered to the Allies
4) Heer war criminals to be handed over to the Allies.
5) All weapons are to be handed over to the Allies. Any scuttling of the Kriegsmarine will be added to the reparations, at 3 times their value.
6) All weapons factories are to be handed to the Allies, all auto factories are to be handed to the Allies, all airplane factories are to be handed to the Allies, all naval assets are given to the Allies including any equipment that can be moved. All steel factories built after 1900 are to be handed over to the Allies. All chemical factories built after 1900 given to the Allies.
7) By British insistence, free trade between the Allies and Germany will begin immediately. Germany is allowed to rebuild their industries after the Allies take control of all named factories.
8) Poland to be handed over to Allied troops on arrival. German troops will guard the Polish border until they arrive.
9) A/L is handed back to the French.
10) Czechoslovakia and Austria are made independent along with Bavaria.
11) East Prussia is given to Poland, which is to be handed over on the arrival of British troops.
12) Germany is to be occupied by the Allies for 20 years but the Germans will be allowed to conduct their internal affairs
13) No armaments factories of any sort are allowed to be built. German police will be given by GB and France.
14) Germany is to be further split into four pieces as North, South, East and West Germany.
15) Factory equipment will be considered the reparations of Germany. Any damaged, destroyed, or missing equipment will be charged triple replacement cost to the Allies.

September 20, 1941
German high command (The true powers in Germany now, Hess being only a figurehead) decide to reject the demands. They find 1 difficult but are willing to do so. It finds 2 and 3 acceptable. Germany can survive the loss of the Nazi Party and they see the SS as a rival anyway. 4 is unacceptable, if forced in the end the Heer officer will be allowed the "honorable way out" and his corpse delivered to the Allies. 5 is acceptable, they expected that anyway. 6 is rejected, it would gut the German economy for a long time. 7 they see as a good faith effort and so is accepted. 8 is seen as reasonable. 9 is expected. 10 Bavaria is problematical the other two expected
11 is unacceptable but East Prussia is to be evacuated by civilians just in case. 12 is rejected. 13 is expected. 14 is rejected. 15 is considered a good faith effort.

The German counter-offer is
1) German generals have to sign documents acknowledging not only their surrender but that the fact the war was hopeless.
2) The Nazi Party is to be disbanded.
3) The SS is to be disbanded with their war criminals to be delivered to the Allies
4) All weapons are to be handed over to the Allies. Any scuttling of the Kriegsmarine will be added to the reparations, at 3 times their value.
5) All weapons factories are to be handed to the Allies.
6) By British insistence, free trade between the Allies and Germany will begin immediately. Germany is allowed to rebuild their industries after the Allies take control of all named factories.
7) Poland to be handed over to Allied troops on arrival. German troops will guard the Polish border until they arrive.
8) A/L is handed back to the French.
9) Czechoslovakia and Austria are made independent
10) Germany is to be occupied by the Allies for 5 years but the Germans will be allowed to conduct their internal affairs
11) No armaments factories of any sort are allowed to be built. German police will be given by GB and France.
12) Factory equipment will be considered the reparations of Germany. Any damaged, destroyed, or missing equipment will be charged triple replacement cost to the Allies.

Sept 24, 1941

Stalin, wanting to bleed the Anglo-French more sends 200 T-26s, 300 BT-7s,300 107 mm gun M1910/30, 400 76 mm divisional gun M1902/30 and 500 45 mm anti-tank gun M1937s for the blueprints of the ME109 and sending experts to set up a factory in Moscow to produce it. Stalin orders a halt to the production of T-26s and BT-7s and orders the step-up of production for the T-34.

Sept 29, 1941
Not expecting all that new weaponry the Allies are stopped cold for the first time in a long time. The Allies take 34,000 KIA and 68,000 WIA in a one month battle where trenches are taken and then retaken while the Germans take 15,000 KIA and 30,000 WIA.

The Allies decide to see if they can tip the balance with more US weapons. The new Sherman tank is coming out in a few days and it is supposed to be step up from the old M2. The Allies have seen the prototypes and they look fine. The French order 200 of them and the British order 300. They also order 400 Stuarts each. 500 Badgers are added to the order as well. They also order 200 Kittyhawks and 100 Dauntless Dive Bombers each.
 
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Nov 12, 1941
The Burma-China Railroad is completed. They have enough engines running to deliver loads at least twice a week. 200,000 Carcanos were sent along with 10,000 Breda 30s and 150 cannone da 65/17 , ammo and fuel. The US sees itself heading towards war with Japan when they down 9 Kittyhawks at the cost of only 3 Zeros. The Japanese then bomb the Burma-China Railroad knocking out an engine and 6 boxcars. Deliveries will be cut for 3 days.

Nov 14,1941

The US orders 3 CVLs, 6CAs, and 12 DDs. It orders the reinforcement of the PI by 30 M2-57 tanks. 2 squadrons of Thunderbolts and 3 of Kittyhawks are sent to the PI along with 3 squadrons of Dauntless Dive Bombers. A couple of squadrons of Thunderbolts, 4 of Kittyhawks and 4 of Dauntlesses are sent to the Hawaiian Islands. Also sent is 1 infantry division and an armor division of M2s.

Due to increasing tension with Japan, the US delays sending the Shermans to the Allies for a month while it starts replacing its own tanks with Shermans. To compensate for the delay the US sends 30 M2s to both GB and France for free. It also sells 50 M2s to Italy and Finnland.

It trades with the Rome Bloc giving it 30,000 Lewis Guns for 50,000 Breda 30s, 60,000 trucks for cash , 300 75 mm Gun M1917 for 500 cannone da 65/17. It also sells the plans for the M2A4 and shipping the entire two factories for making them for the last 600 L3s and 300 Fiat 3000s, shipping them to China. The Italians shut down the last Fiat 3000 plants they have in Italy and ship them to Romania and Hungry which shut down the L3 plants.
 
Any suggestions for the Japanese? There are quite a few changes from OTL. The ground and air forces in the PI are stronger with the Philippino troops armed with Gerands and trained for 5 months. The USN is much weaker and its navy is still in San Diego. The Dutch Air Force is slightly stronger. If war breaks out almost the entirety of the RN, the French Navy, and the Dutch Navy can be brought to bear. The Italian Navy is almost certainly going to join the party as well. Burma is reinforced with US aircraft and they will have to fight for FIC.
 
Any suggestions for the Japanese? There are quite a few changes from OTL. The ground and air forces in the PI are stronger with the Philippino troops armed with Gerands and trained for 5 months. The USN is much weaker and its navy is still in San Diego. The Dutch Air Force is slightly stronger. If war breaks out almost the entirety of the RN, the French Navy, and the Dutch Navy can be brought to bear. The Italian Navy is almost certainly going to join the party as well. Burma is reinforced with US aircraft and they will have to fight for FIC.
Japanese don't have many good options. No Pearl Harbor due to the USN being on the mainland frees up the carriers to give some assistance but the threat of a USN in being still has to be countered. Getting surprise is much harder as the seas are more traveled and the sight of carriers is a big red flag. FIC not being in Japanese hands makes pressuring Thailand a lot harder, due to no land border, and also means no land based long range bombers due to no airfields in range as well as reduced supply routes ( OTL was marginal as it was ). Given the number of 7's rolled by the Japanese to 1's on the Allies OTL , odds are it goes a lot slower ITTL and hits a snag or two ( Monsoon season effectively stopping offensives means delays hurt a lot ). Japan also has its OTL issue of not being able to replace losses with equal quality, not helped with the US already seeing the Zero in action.
 
Japanese don't have many good options. No Pearl Harbor due to the USN being on the mainland frees up the carriers to give some assistance but the threat of a USN in being still has to be countered. Getting surprise is much harder as the seas are more traveled and the sight of carriers is a big red flag. FIC not being in Japanese hands makes pressuring Thailand a lot harder, due to no land border, and also means no land based long range bombers due to no airfields in range as well as reduced supply routes ( OTL was marginal as it was ). Given the number of 7's rolled by the Japanese to 1's on the Allies OTL , odds are it goes a lot slower ITTL and hits a snag or two ( Monsoon season effectively stopping offensives means delays hurt a lot ). Japan also has its OTL issue of not being able to replace losses with equal quality, not helped with the US already seeing the Zero in action.
Do they still attack or do they fold? And if they do where? Due to the new railroad, Burma is more important than OTL. DEI has to be taken at all costs. A move towards Burma will bring in the US which means you have to take the PI which has much better infantry than OTL. The French will fight to defend FIC.
 
Japanese don't have many good options. No Pearl Harbor due to the USN being on the mainland frees up the carriers to give some assistance but the threat of a USN in being still has to be countered. Getting surprise is much harder as the seas are more traveled and the sight of carriers is a big red flag. FIC not being in Japanese hands makes pressuring Thailand a lot harder, due to no land border, and also means no land based long range bombers due to no airfields in range as well as reduced supply routes ( OTL was marginal as it was ). Given the number of 7's rolled by the Japanese to 1's on the Allies OTL , odds are it goes a lot slower ITTL and hits a snag or two ( Monsoon season effectively stopping offensives means delays hurt a lot ). Japan also has its OTL issue of not being able to replace losses with equal quality, not helped with the US already seeing the Zero in action.
One thing in Japan's favor is the USN is pretty weak at the moment and will remain so until 1944. Even then it won't be as strong as it was in OTL in 1943. It is over a year behind in its build schedule.

I think that is more than made up by the fact virtually the entire British, French and Italian navies as the IJN would have to be complete fools to assume the Italians won't get involved when it is being sold cheap weapons by the US, UK, and France.

I agree until FIC falls they won't be able to pressure Thailand. In fact, I think they won't make a serious effort to do so until FIC falls, assuming it does fall. I don't think FIC will be a cakewalk if the French actually defends it.

Burma is going to be a very important target as Japan really needs to cut off American supplies coming up from Burma. Once the war starts with the US it has to assume that the US will start supplying it with more than Italian castoffs.

The DEI is going to be more difficult as Japan has to escort its bombers. Buffaloes are far from the best fighters out there but they were better than the biplanes the Dutch used OTL and capable of handling unescorted Bettys.

The PI will be harder to take then OTL as the Philippine Army is armed with Garands and M2 medium tanks which by this time are basically M3 Grants of OTL with a 57mm gun instead of a 75. Also, the planes guarding it are Thunderbolts, Kittyhawks, and Dauntlesses.

I think Malaysia would have to wait with FIC and Burma both being in the way and Thailand neutral. It would at least be considerably more difficult. Rabul will almost certainly never be attacked, let alone taken. The IJA barely consented to the operation and it will be harder in TTL.
 
Nov 21, 1941
The Russians finally start besieging Budapest after months-long battle costing 60,000 lives. The Hungarians evacuate the city and the going is very slow. The Rome Pact receives 100 M2 Mediums, 150 Stuarts, 150 Thunderbolts, 150 Kittyhawks, 200 B-17s and 200 of the new Wolverine TD which is a Stuart tank chassis with a 6 pounder gun on it.

The Soviets halt production on all tanks save the T-34. Production of the T-34 ramps up quickly as it is now the only tank Stalin has any confidence in. Early T-34s were not all that great but they are better than anything else the Russians have.

Stalin starts negotiations with the Rome Pact as the price of the war exceeds what even he considers it is worth. If he loses too many men here he won't have enough for the Communist-Capitalist War.

November 28, 1941
The US halts all production on the M2A4 and sends the last 300 to China. All light tank production is now Stuarts as no other light tank is selling. Japan is starting to bog down in China as entire rifle armies are being stood up. Chiang is starting to get the warlords under control as he starts sending L3/35s into their territory to "encourage" them to fight the Japanese under his command. It works as entire brigades defect to Chiang's side as he seems to be the one most able to destroy the Japanese. Also, they get the point that if they don't they might be fighting the Nationalists , backed by tanks, as well as the Japanese.

Meanwhile, 150,000 Carcanos, 10,000 Bredas, and 250 cannone da 65/17s arrive in China. Japan is increasingly coming up against machine gun and artillery support. Neither are devestating in and of themselves but it is adding up.
 
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Ahhh, I don't know how I did that again. In any case do you think the Japanese should give up or roll the dice and take on the West?
 
China is considerably stronger than OTL. This is what it has on top of what it did OTL either in theater or in the pipeline.

1200 L3/35s
580 Fiat 3000 Model 21s
300 M2A4s upgraded from OTL being almost equal to a Stuart of OTL.
650,000 Carcano rifles
800 cannone da 65/17s
70,000 Breda 30 machine guns
60,000 Trucks

Between the rifles and machine guns alone you are talking about nearly 3/4 of a million men in theory and that is no joke. You probably won't be able to field that many more due to various losses and certainly not all at once but the Japanese are definitely weaker on the ground vs the Chinese in TTL as compared to ours. Maybe 1/2 million more in total and 300,000 more at any given time?
 
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Dec 5, 1941
The Germans is cut in half as they are pushed back to the Hamburg-Munich Line. The fiercest fighting yet in the war happens as the Germans are slowly pushed back. The Allies total no less than 75,000 dead while the Germans take 50,000.

It has been one bloody battle after another and winter is coming on. The Allies decide to do little but skirmish and build back up over winter. Great offenses rarely occur in winter anyway. The new Sherman tank does have its strengths and weaknesses. Its armor is not as good as the Char but it is far more reliable and, more importantly, much easier to maintain. The British and French order 2,000 between the 2 of them. They also order 30,000 half-tracks. They also buy 300 Wolverine TDs, 400 Kittyhawks and 1,500 6 pounder artillery guns as GB can't keep up with the demand for them.

Dec 10, 1941
Germany steps up production on the MarderII. This costs them a lot of tank production but they figure they are going to be mainly on the defense anyways and they need to save the cash. The Soviets send them 300 T-26s, 500 BT-7s,450 107 mm gun M1910/30, 600 76 mm divisional gun M1902/30 and 75 45 mm anti-tank gun M1937s for the blueprints of the HE111 and sending experts to set up a factory in Moscow to produce it. Russia starts mass-producing the ME109 but using their own machine guns and cannon.

Dec 14, 1941
In the Treaty of Budapest, the USSR agrees to go back to status quo antebellum with the Rome Pact. The USSR withdraws all troops to its own borders. This loss of face results in large scale purges in the army and weapons factories.

Mussolini's popularity in Italy soars. It was a bloody war but the Italian Army gained glory in the Balkans and gained a huge amount of influence there. A number of trade agreements that favored Italy fairly heavily were signed. Mussolini is hailed in Italian newspapers as the "New Ceasar" (I may be ill).

After a number of incidents, the US orders 3 CVs, 6BBs, 12 CAs, and 36 DDs. The Japanese start worrying about the future balance of naval power in the Pacific. 3 squadrons of Thunderbolts and a squadron of Dauntless dive bombers are sent to the PI. Another 2 squadrons of Thunderbolts and 3 of Dauntlesses are sent to Guam. A couple squadrons each of B-17s are sent to the PI, Guam, and Burma.
 
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Jan 5, 1942
The Third Battle of Nanchang is a bloodbath. The Japanese eventually drive China back out of Nanchang but at great cost. No less than 75,000 died in the 3 month-long battle. 125,000 Chinese joined them as the fighting was street to street. The majority of the Chinese tank force was destroyed in this battle while the Japanese took a major hit in their armor as well. The L3s were no threat to the Japanese tanks and were taken down one by one, not before many Japanese infantrymen died from its machine gunfire. The Fiat 3000s were outmaneuvered due to their plodding pace but the M2A4s were a challenge for the Type 95 Ha-Gos. Type 97 Chi-Has were brought in to deal with them but the Japanese did not have that many of them.

The Japanese won the artillery duels, as well, as they were better than the Italian cast offs the Chinese were using but not before more than a few Japanese soldiers were blown to atoms. The Japanese Zero was more than a match for anything short of the Kittyhawks and even outclassed them though not by as much.

What made it so brutal for the Japanese was the sheer number of Chinese troops. If they weren't better trained than the Chinese troops they were fighting it would have been even more brutal.

The IJA high command fully realized that this could not continue. They would have to either leave China or attack the West because unless the supply line to China was cut they would be attritted to death.
 
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Japan's war plans, if it decides to go to war will be this unless you have better ideas.
1) Seize Guam and the PI right away from the US
2) Invade FIC and then Thailand and go through to Burma.
3) Invade the DEI for the oil

I think this is the most they can possibly do under the circumstances. Comments?
 
Mar 15,1942
The Germans are pushed back to the Schweren Liepeig line and finally come to terms with the Allies.

1) German generals have to sign documents acknowledging not only their surrender but that the fact the war was hopeless.
2) The Nazi Party is to be disbanded.
3) The SS is to be disbanded with their war criminals to be delivered to the Allies
4) Heer war criminals to be handed over to the Allies. Very few of these actually come to trial as officially most of them were "killed fighting" with their dead bodies shown as proof. Many were allowed to commit suicide rather than face the humiliation of a trial.
5) All weapons are to be handed over to the Allies. Any scuttling of the Kriegsmarine will be added to the reparations, at 3 times their value.
6) All weapons factories are to be handed to the Allies, all auto factories are to be handed to the Allies, all airplane factories are to be handed to the Allies, all naval assets are given to the Allies including any equipment that can be moved. All steel factories built after 1900 are to be handed over to the Allies. All chemical factories built after 1900 given to the Allies.
7) By British insistence, free trade between the Allies and Germany will begin immediately. Germany is allowed to rebuild their industries after the Allies take control of all named factories.
8) Poland to be handed over to Allied troops on arrival. German troops will guard the Polish border until they arrive.
9) A/L is handed back to the French.
10) Czechoslovakia and Austria are made independent.
11) East Prussia is given to Poland, which is to be handed over on the arrival of British troops.
12) Germany is to be occupied by the Allies for 15 years but the Germans will be allowed to conduct their internal affairs
13) No armaments factories of any sort are allowed to be built. German police will be given by GB and France.
14) Germany is to be further split into three pieces as the Confederation of North Germany. consisting of Holstein. Mecklenburg and Brandenburg. The Republic of Saxony consisting of all of Saxony, Westphalia, and Thuringia. The Kingdom of Bavaria consisting of Bavaria, Rhineland, Saarland, and Hesse. The Kingdom of Bavaria is a constitutional monarchy with the monarch picked having connections both with the UK and Bavaria.
15) Factory equipment will be considered the reparations of Germany. Any damaged, destroyed, or missing equipment will be charged triple replacement cost to the Allies.

March 21, 1942
Stalin notices German troops departing but the fact British and French troops were arriving escaped his notice. Trying to capture Prussia for himself he attacks Prussia himself. Thousands of British and French troops are killed.

March 22, 1942
The British and French Empires declare war against the USSR along with the Belgium who were also there. Norway also declares war.

March 23, 1942
The Rome Pact declares war on the USSR.

March 24, 1942
Finnland declares war on the USSR.

March 28,1942
With the European powers distracted and the USN weak but growing quickly Japan decides to put its plans into action in one month. They use the time to plan their attacks. They also open up talks with the USSR to write a non-aggression treaty and trade deals. The USSR agrees to trade oil for Japanese rubber.
 
March 28,1942
With the European powers distracted and the USN weak but growing quickly Japan decides to put its plans into action in one month. They use the time to plan their attacks. They also open up talks with the USSR to write a non-aggression treaty and trade deals. The USSR agrees to trade oil for Japanese rubber.
Japan has a big rubber industry now but it is synthetic not natural so will not exist in 1942.
 
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