Pride Goes Before a Fall: A Revolutionary Greece Timeline

[X Oristos]

[2] For reference, in OTL the Ottoman Navy only fielded 49 ships (29 sailing ships and 20 steamships) in 1855 following the outbreak of the Crimean War. By 1876 this number had grown to nearly 200 ships with 27 ironclad warships as Sultan Abdulaziz was very partial towards the Navy. Given the greater financial limitations and reduced resources of the Ottoman Empire here, I’m inclined to reduce their number of ships by quite a bit ITTL.

Condor-sized butterflies here! That's a very important development.

During the OTL Cretan Revolt, the Ottoman Fleet's performance was distinctively unimpressive. To blockade Crete they utilized two fleets, with one providing a distant blockade cruising off the Greek Kingdom's shore and another fleet that provided a close blockade. The Ottomans had both a lot of ships and excellent bases to bloackade the rebels: Souda bay first and foremost, but also Chania, Herakleion along with small stations (Ierapetra). Moreover, the Greeks had few blockade runners: 4 of them, all of them small steamships.

Even though the Ottomans enjoyed an incredible superiority in numbers, they managed to inflict a single casualty on the blockade runners: SS Arkadi was caught unloading supplies at Agia Roumeli, Sfakia. She had already commenced 13 successful runs so far. Even though she was caught while unloading, she managed to evade the turkish warships for a whole day. The combined fire of the steamship Izzedin and two frigates achieved a hit that destroyed one of the two paddles, leaving Arkadi with 1/3 of her speed. Even so, Arkadi first tried to board Izzeddin and then managed to evade the whole squadron long enough for the captain to run her aground and save his crew and the volunteers earmarked for Crete. That somewhat embarassing action was the Ottoman Navy's most illustrious day during the Cretan Revolt.

Afterwards, the Porte recruited Augustus Charles Hobart-Hampden to organize the blockade. If anything Hobart was the right man for the job: he was an experienced naval commander and a successful blockade runner himself during the ACW. It didn't matter though. During his watch, the stream of supplies and volunteers continued as usual. The blockade runners even managed to disembark a small army of 1,000 Maniots under the command of the Greek Revolution warlord Dimitrios Petropoulakis.

File:Dimitrios Petropoulakis 1868 016.JPG - Wikimedia Commons

commons.wikimedia.org

Hobart was gunning for the most successful blockade runner: SS Enosis (Union) that during the revolt managed 46 successful runs. At December 2nd 1867, Hobart managed to trap Enosis close to Syros. His squadron consisted of the screw frigate Hüdâvendigâr, Izzedin and two fast dispatch steamships. Instead of surrendering, captain Surmelis attacked the ottoman squadron. The 438ton ship had only 2 Armstrong guns alongside with 2 mountain guns of limited use. Izzedin lost her left paddle and Hüdâvendigâr received two hits as well. The combined fire of the squadron did not result to any hits. Enosis escaped to Syros and then Hobart blockaded the port until the arrival of the screw frigate Hellas (former Amalia).

SS Enosis

Overall, despite its eye watering superiority over a handful of armed merchantmen, the Ottoman Navy showed a severe lack of seamanship and the Ottoman gunners had a single successful hit during the 2,5 year blockade of Crete.

 

[James1996]

Wow, just wow, that is just pitiful performance from the Ottoman Navy.

 

[TimTurner]

Wow, just wow, that is just pitiful performance from the Ottoman Navy.

OTL Russian navy: I can be incompetent! Very incompetent! Just watch!
ITTL Ottoman navy: No, you can't surpass me. Surpassing me is impossible.

 

[Quinkana]

OTL Russian navy: I can be incompetent! Very incompetent! Just watch!
ITTL Ottoman navy: No, you can't surpass me. Surpassing me is impossible.

considering that the Russian navy in otl won against the ottomans the ottomans in otl was just bad. add the fact that ittl they have no money and they'd not be thinking about their navy at all I don't think the turks would retain any islands from the agean.

 

[boredviewer1234]

Overall, despite its eye watering superiority over a handful of armed merchantmen, the Ottoman Navy showed a severe lack of seamanship and the Ottoman gunners had a single successful hit during the 2,5 year blockade of Crete.

How could that happen? If it was fiction I would right it off as unrealistic with with the author clearly favoring the plucky rebels up to the point of absurdity then again reality needs not follow the ''rules''.

 

[James1996]

OTL Russian navy: I can be incompetent! Very incompetent! Just watch!
ITTL Ottoman navy: No, you can't surpass me. Surpassing me is impossible.

Oh speaking of the Russian Navy here's a hilarious video I watched detailing the misadventure of the Second Pacific Squadron.

 

[TimTurner]

Oh speaking of the Russian Navy here's a hilarious video I watched detailing the misadventure of the Second Pacific Squadron.

I saw that video a few days ago. (it influenced me to make memes about it in the AH.com Memes thread)
Just hilarious. You can't make this up.
And they claim ships don't have personalities!
But enough about the Kamchatka...

 

[nkd1325]

How could that happen? If it was fiction I would right it off as unrealistic with with the author clearly favoring the plucky rebels up to the point of absurdity then again reality needs not follow the ''rules''.

Reality is often "unrealistic". Since nobody has a perfect view of all the facts we make assumptions such as "no navy that large could be THAT poorly trained" or "by sheer scale of size, the Ottomans should crush a couple of statelets who's combined population is less than a 10th theirs" until we learn facts which contradict this view and are suddenly left with disbelief.

 

[Quinkana]

Reality is often "unrealistic". Since nobody has a perfect view of all the facts we make assumptions such as "no navy that large could be THAT poorly trained" or "by sheer scale of size, the Ottomans should crush a couple of statelets who's combined population is less than a 10th theirs" until we learn facts which contradict this view and are suddenly left with disbelief.

Tbf the Greek king dying from a random monkey bite causing a monarchical coup and causing Greece to lose against Turkey in 1920 is quite insane.

 

[Valentinian]

Tbf the Greek king dying from a random monkey bite causing a monarchical coup and causing Greece to lose against Turkey in 1920 is quite insane.

This exact scenario is why I believe every timeline is allowed one off the wall ASB moment where otherwise the reader might call shenanigans. It is the best writers that can make the most of their "monkey bite" moment.

 

[Lascaris]

This exact scenario is why I believe every timeline is allowed one off the wall ASB moment where otherwise the reader might call shenanigans. It is the best writers that can make the most of their "monkey bite" moment.

What monkey bite? I don't understand what you are talking about...

 

[X Oristos]

How could that happen? If it was fiction I would right it off as unrealistic with with the author clearly favoring the plucky rebels up to the point of absurdity then again reality needs not follow the ''rules''.

Indeed! The fact that a single blockade runner was lost in 2,5 years is perplexing. That performance was after a great deal of reforms, not just after building a lot of warships.

What makes it even worse is the geography of the blockade runs: almost all of them were headed towards western Crete, that was the focus. So the Ottomans didn't have to cover with the same vigilance the whole island. Geography made their job even easier since the cretan coast is not treacherous. Relatively few coves, deep waters that start almost right after the coast... no reefs and shallows like a lot of other places at the Aegean. A few dozen miles away from Souda, the superb natural harbor that hosted the ottoman fleet.

It is not as if they didn't give proper attention to the matter. They recognized it as the most important aspect of the revolt and even hired a mercenary commander with extensive experience in blockade running. And sent a multi-squadron fleet. Overall, it was one of the best examples why naval prowess is more than a number of warships and artillery ranges.

There is one thing though. In TTL the qualitative gap between the Greek and Ottoman Navies is significantly more pronounced. The Greeks have adopted steamships earlier and more massively in their merchant fleet. They have many more sailors with extensive experience in steamships compared to OTL. Moreover, the greek navy is also larger and more active. Sending ships off the lebanese coast is something that wouldn't have been very plausible in OTL. That was a very useful expedition. Not to mention that Kanaris was governing, an admiral who in contrast to OTL had actually a decent budget. Overall, it seems to me that in TTL the greek navy is not only larger than OTL but also of better quality.

So ... Larger qualitative gap and much smaller quantitative gap. This should be interesting to watch.

 

[Lascaris]

Wow, just wow, that is just pitiful performance from the Ottoman Navy.

I'll note they were consistently losing battles to the Russians since the 18th century. The Russian fleets winning said battles being often enough considerably smaller. Now the Russians early on had their fair share of Dutch, British and Greek mercenaries but this reminds me the joke about god making the Italian army for the Austrians to have someone to beat.

Now why was the Ottoman navy underpreforming to such an extend? That's an interesting question to which I have seen no proper answer but let me note the Ottomans between 1770 and 1854 lost the better part of their navy with heavy loss of life not one but... four times, roughly once every generation. This can't have had good effects on retaining institutional knowledge within the fleet. Couple that with lack of a large merchant marine to draw upon and where was the Ottoman Navy getting its crews for the large numbers of battleships the sultan was so obligingly buying? If I understand correctly conscription and conscription done indiscriminately, in 1914 the crews sent to Britain to take delivery of the new super-dreadnoughts building for the navy supposedly included shepherds conscripted into the navy of all things. This can't have helped all that much, if anything it looks to me as a vicious cycle one Abdul Hamid managed to make even worse, come 1897 Von Der Goltz was reporting back to Berlin that it took crews two hours to load a gun and the fleet during the war couldn't even sail out of the Dardanelles...

 

[Lascaris]

I'll be honest, I thought they were interchangeable, so really this is a case of me being lazy, instead of doing my due diligence and looking at the info a little more logically. I'll edit this to 8in and 6.4in accordingly.

That WAS interchangeable up to oh 1861 or so.

These ships will certainly be modified and upgraded in the following 6 years, but really this snippet was just a look at the Hellenic Navy at a single point in time. There will definitely be bigger and stronger ironclads joining the Hellenic Navy in the not so distant future.

Speaking of which I'm getting the distinct impression you are making the Ottoman Navy stronger here? Not certain if this is accidental but 7 Osmaniye's at 6,400t each add up to 44,800t. OTL construction to 1871 was 40,000t plus 9,174t in Egyptian ships taken over by the Ottomans for political reasons.

In the case of Constantinople, it is majority Turkish right now, but there are large minorities of Greeks and Armenians living in Constantinople. Whilst this isn't optimal for Athens, gaining the Queen of Cities is worth the headache. Its also likely that a large number of these Turkish residents would leave if the city came under Greek rule, with some leaving voluntarily and others leaving at gunpoint.

Plurality rather than majority I think though I could remember wrong.

Now, regarding their claims to Anatolia, I intensionally left this vague as the Hellenic Government isn't entirely sure what they want either just yet, only that they want some piece of territory along the coast, like Smyrna given its large Greek population. Beyond that though, it is a matter for future debate.

Too long term... next war. If not war after next.

My sources implied that the Serbians were unable to properly field their National Militia against the Ottomans in the 1876 War. Now I could have misinterpreted it as saying they couldn't equip all its troops with "modern rifles", instead of no rifles as I originally thought. Either way, I do agree its a rather weak gesture, but then again its purely meant to be a distraction to the secret treaty hidden underneath.

They did field about 60,000 men which even if not as many as hoped was still far from unimpressive for a country of 1.35 million. If they manage better TTL so much the better.

Either way, the Serbians will be getting better rifles soon as will the Greeks.

The timing is... interesting for artillery. What with going from smoothbores, to rifled guns to breechloading rifled guns in the virtual nick pf an eye. I wonder what's the stronger French industry of TTL is doing in this. OTL Reffye matching the Krupp guns came barely too late for the Franco-Prussian war to be followed in relatively short order by the even better De Bange gun. Post that you could argue French artillery design for design tended to be at least somewhat better than its German counterparts.

It does make for an interesting situation where both Britain and Russia are propping up the Ottoman Empire, albeit for different reasons.

Are they both? Again I'd expect British policy to be more... nuanced as seen in 1912. If the war ends up with Russian influence in Greece destroyed, not an unlikely event, it's not as if Britain will be exactly displeased...

 

[Hastings]

Yeah, Ottoman Navy is going to get shut up in port soon. Realistically don't see how Greek doesn't gain Limnos, Lesvos, Thasos, and probably Cyprus absent an absolute disaster on land. Incidentally the Ottomans are going to have to tie forces likely to defend the coast of Asia Minor. Greece has less islands to secure than 1912, allows seizing coastal positions as there are a lot of vulnerable smallish ports in the area.

Incidentally in some ways a limited victory is probably better for Greece in a zero-sum Balkan State size sense. Realistically they won't overrun Ottoman Empire in Europe, for one thing core of Bosnia and Albania will resist *fiercely* and for another it is a long way to Adrianople for Greek/Serbian forces even if wildest dreams of revolts happen, so realistically can't secure Thrace in a meaningful way. The danger in that scenario is a Bulgarian state being established, which will rapidly become a major actor and want to push south too. A scenario where limited gains might be disappointing. But if Greece just gains islands and Western Macedonia and Serbia/Montenegro their OTL 1876 gains, nonexistent Bulgaria is gaining *nothing*. Incidentally I feel sorry for Albania, arguably a bit of a rump state OTL, and almost certainly smaller, quite possibly by a good bit, ATL.

Also, I would generally not worry too much about precise demographics. The 1876 OTL gains by Balkan powers lost ~60% of their Muslim population in the following 30 years. Similarly the 1912 gains lost ~60% of their Muslim population by 1926. A lot in initial conquest then slow trickle, even in a scenario where Greece tries to make friendly with Muslim populations, a lot will leave or stop claiming to be Muslim. Also, southern-most reaches of Slavic population assimilated fairly smoothly. Except for Eastern Rumelia and the Rhodope Mountains, any territory Greece gains in the European part of their claim here will become fairly rapidly strongly Greek.

Here's the map of the planned partition, had to use my imagination in number of places, though I suspect whoever ATL reduces this agreement to a map also will have to use a bit of imagination also. Ambitious is one way to describe it. Though I think at least Greece can get the vast majority of their share, came relatively close even OTL (though same is true of Serbia, which even almost gained Bulgaria after WWII)!

 

[Quinkana]

This exact scenario is why I believe every timeline is allowed one off the wall ASB moment where otherwise the reader might call shenanigans. It is the best writers that can make the most of their "monkey bite" moment.

Yeah I agree, there's no reason why sometimes things go insane, and still making the story make sense defo is testing the mettle of the writer.

What monkey bite? I don't understand what you are talking about...

Hmm I wonder why I used that example... 🤔

Here's the map of the planned partition, had to use my imagination in number of places, though I suspect whoever ATL reduces this agreement to a map also will have to use a bit of imagination also. Ambitious is one way to describe it. Though I think at least Greece can get the vast majority of their share, came relatively close even OTL (though same is true of Serbia, which even almost gained Bulgaria after WWII)!

Tbf I could see Bulgaria just being released by itself and be one of the few nations to be 'so far from god, so close to everyone else' as the Serbians and Greeks all have designs on Bulgaria's land (taking Burgas and Philipopolis means Bulgaria loses two of the biggest cities that could be called Bulgarian in otl) and considering if the league wins decisively in the Balkans there's no other power that would contest it because the Bulgarians would be too weak to even think of taking those lands. Even though Greece is taking a lot of mountainous lands in taking all of Thrace, it's still a lot of land that could be used by Greece and it'd increase their population significantly.

 

[Duke of Orlando]

Since we’re drawing maps and discussing what the hypothetical best case partition would be for the signing powers and I seem to have an unhealthy obsession with what happens to Albania in TTL, I guess that means it’s time for me to discuss some potential outcomes for Albania again. Let’s starts with what’s happening up north near Serbia and Montenegro

The Serbians were similarly reluctant to surrender any of their claimed territory to the Montenegrins (Ulcinj, Scutari, and Sandžak), but conceded in return for additional gains elsewhere in Northern Macedonia

Members of the Serbian Government also admitted their aspirations for a port along the Adriatic coast via Northern Albania.

Both of these point make sense but also contradict each other a bit. To my knowledge There’s really only two ports worth the name in northern Albania. Bar and Shengjin. Bar is almost certainly going to be Montenegrin as Ulcinj is further south along the coast. Which leaves Shëngjin for Serbia. There’s a slight problem with this though as it’s traditionally always been the Adriatic port for goods coming and going to Scutari, a city promised to Montenegro already. So it’s fate is a bit up in the air. And it’s a pretty small port anyway. So Serbia might be thinking bigger. The only major port in “Northern” Albania, and honestly the next port I know of if you’re going down the coast, is Durrës. And that’s a deep cut into Albanian territory. It basically removes all of the Catholic Albanian areas if you were to draw a straight line between the city of Durrës and the nearest Serbian border. It also removes several of the other major towns and villages. If you draw something more sensible than a strait line to Serbia but still leave out Tirana you take even more. It’s essentially half of Albania. Which is perfect if you want a puppet rump Albania.

Athens would also express a lesser desire to advance their frontier into the Vilayet of Albania, removing the Ottoman presence in the region. Whilst some within Athens would call for the complete conquest of Albania and its annexation into the Hellenic State, most members of the Kolokotronis Government took a more reasoned approach suggesting that the province be turned into a client state that would be diplomatically, economically, and militarily dependent upon the Kingdom of Greece for its survival.

I’m interested if the phrase “advance their frontier” is supposed to literally mean the border or just a desire to kick the ottoman’s out. Because there’s still several areas in southern Albania with an indeterminate religious majority or an outright orthodox majority the Greek government could easily be interested in taking regardless of their desire for an Albanian puppet. They could reasonably even go as north as Vlorë and take it to both weaken the Albanians by taking their last major port and strengthen themselves. That would likely end any hope of a productive partnership between the Albanians and Greeks though. There’s a big difference between an exploited puppet and a junior partner, and taking one of their last cultural centers and ports definitely says you’re a puppet. Greece could reasonably go either way though. We discussed the relationship between the two groups several times at this point, and there’s definitely bad blood between the groups. Which might lead to something more exploitative. But i don’t think it’s impossible for it to be over come. If Greece thinks a head and wants to tie the Albanians closer to themselves they could easily co-op the Albanian Renaissance, assuming it happens, in a way advantageous to them. It really doesn’t start till the 1880’s and 1890’s OTL so they have time. It might not lead to a full blown confederation or anything like that but it could form a very strong long term alliance.

 

[Quinkana]

Snip

Tbf I think considering that the Serbs think of Montenegro as part of Yugoslavia a possibility is that Serbia thinks that the annexxed lands by Montenegro would eventually be Serb as the two states unite as Yugoslavia. I can defo see your interpretation tho and if the Serbs successfully separate the Catholic Albanians from the Muslims it's definitely a possibility that the Catholic Albanians think that they're Yugoslavan and assimilate.

The fact that Greece could very much claim the lower half of Albania due to its orthodox populations makes it even worse for Albania, and it being a mutual puppet of Serbia and Greece would make sense. This TL is very much an Albanian and Bulgarian screw if the Balkan league is successful in kicking out the ottomans from the Balkans in the war that is to come, and that Albania as a concept may not even pop up in general as they all get assimilated.

So ... Larger qualitative gap and much smaller quantitative gap. This should be interesting to watch.

Yeah the Greeks would probably Crete, Cyprus and the rest of the islands in the Aegean. Unless the British try to gain Cyprus I don't think the Greeks would control all of the islands in the aegean and the adriatic.

PS Bulgaria being a puppet of Romania would be a fun concept in general.

 

[emperor joe]

Tbf I think considering that the Serbs think of Montenegro as part of Yugoslavia a possibility is that Serbia thinks that the annexxed lands by Montenegro would eventually be Serb as the two states unite as Yugoslavia. I can defo see your interpretation tho and if the Serbs successfully separate the Catholic Albanians from the Muslims it's definitely a possibility that the Catholic Albanians think that they're Yugoslavan and assimilate.

The fact that Greece could very much claim the lower half of Albania due to its orthodox populations makes it even worse for Albania, and it being a mutual puppet of Serbia and Greece would make sense. This TL is very much an Albanian and Bulgarian screw if the Balkan league is successful in kicking out the ottomans from the Balkans in the war that is to come, and that Albania as a concept may not even pop up in general as they all get assimilated.

Yeah the Greeks would probably Crete, Cyprus and the rest of the islands in the Aegean. Unless the British try to gain Cyprus I don't think the Greeks would control all of the islands in the aegean and the adriatic.

PS Bulgaria being a puppet of Romania would be a fun concept in general.

Greece has already Crete and the rest of the Southern island

 

[goumaister]

Serbia didn't assimilate Kosovo so it has no chance of assimilating the Catholic Albanians who quite literally became Catholic so they wouldn't be under Serbian influence, and the Pope help for Skanderberg. I see Serbia going for Durres is it quite the better option and no one really will stop them, but the Balkan league is destined to fail in this 1st war. They might get some victories but when both Great Britain and Russia want to prop up the Ottomans at this moment then the Balkan nations have failed to read the diplomatic room. More than likely Bulgaria will split as per OTL and be a Russian puppet under Ottoman "rule" and the other 3 nations will get scraps while Britain will get Cyprus as a thank you from the Ottomans for their support.
I know there is some hurt feeling in the Sublime Porte against the English for their previous failure against the Russians but still this new endeavor could patch things up. There is no reason to let the Ottomans be a Russian puppet as the Russians see them and while after this war the diplomatic filed will be shifted I don't see why the Great Powers would let the Balkan nations destroy the Ottomans.