I'm curious what will happen in post-Kolokotronis Greece. The natural replacement, as suggested by what Earl Marshal has said so far, is the Liberal Party, which would be interesting if TTL were led by Charilaos Trikoupis too. I am intrigued to know how much Trikoupis (who OTL had great ideas but little money and huge backwardness to overcome) would have achieved with a much more favorable starting point, such as TTL Greece, richer, larger and with moderately developed modern infrastructure.

About the Liberal electoral platform, which will necessarily have to be differentiated from the Nationalists, it is difficult to guess, since until now TTL has highlighted the positive aspects of the policies of Kanaris and Kolokotronis. But here are my bets:

1. Megali Idea: Before undertaking more expansionist adventures, Greek economy must be stronger

2. Clean Government: Reform and professionalization of the state bureaucracy, fighting against the spoils system and the cronnysm of the Kolokotronis era. Improvement of the judicial system.

3. Electoral reform: Elimination of the Poll tax, reform of the Senate. Delimitation of royal power towards a fully parliamentary system: 'Power to the People'

4. Economic policy: Encouraging foreign investment. Tax exemptions and tariffs to favor the development of the textile industry. Subsidies to export companies (food processing, tobacco). Promoting the formation of agricultural cooperatives

5. Tax policy: Moving towards a progressive taxation, (balancing the tax burden towards the highest incomes)

6. Culture and Education: Expansion and improvement of school system, war on illiteracy. Improvement of the status of Demotic Greek.

7. Social Policy: Legislation on labor rights, extension of healthcare system, right to strike....

8. Foreign Policy:???? I'm not sure there's room for a big change. What is certain is that Greece will be more Russophobic and Slavophobic.
 
Last edited:
Chapter 100: The Balkan League
So a few days of traveling turned into a few weeks. :coldsweat:

Anyway, I've been enjoying the speculation and theory crafting on what's been going on elsewhere in the world ITTL. Once this current arc on the upcoming Greco-Turkish War is complete I'll be doing a tour across the world to show you all what has been happening in the last few years (or in some cases decades). That said, some countries like France, Germany and Italy will be receiving more attention in the form of their own chapters, whilst others like Spain, Portugal, the Scandinavian Countries, South America and Sub-Saharan Africa will be covered more broadly.

Now moving onto today's chapter, I hope you all enjoy!

Chapter 100: The Balkan League

Balkan_League_and_Hagia_Sophia.jpg

An artistic depiction of the Balkan Christians celebrating their eventual victory over the Turks.

The idea of a Pan-Christian alliance against the Turks was not a new concept for the peoples of the Balkans, with the earliest iterations of this idea dating back to the Middle Ages with the Smyrniote, Nicopolis, and Varna Crusades and the later Holy Leagues, all of which achieved varying levels of success. In more recent times, the first auspices of what would later become the Balkan League took root in the years before the Greek War for Independence under the aegis of the Filiki Eteria. Although the Society of Friends was primarily a Hellenic organization aimed at Greek independence, it also advocated for the Enlightenment ideals of liberty, equality and fraternity among the Christian peoples of the Ottoman Empire. It stated their collective desire for independence from Turkish occupation and the destruction of the Sublime Porte. To that end, the Society invited several prominent figures from Serbian society to join such as Karađorđe, Romanians like Tudor Vladimirescu, and even a few Russians providing the Group with a Pan-Orthodox facade.[1] Sadly, despite its grand ambitions, broad popular support, years of planning, and extensive financial and material backing; it was not to be.

Official Russian support for the Filiki Eteria would never materialize, with some prominent Ministers like Ioannis Kapodistrias denouncing the Society as a dangerous and criminal organization. Despite the promises of its nominal leader, Alexander Ypsilantis to the contrary; St. Petersburg would be neutral at best in the conflict to come, prompting Tudor Vladimirescu to formally break ties with the Society. Worse still Vladimirescu was alleged to have leaked information of the rebellion to the Sublime Porte leading to his swift execution by Ypsilantis in retaliation. With their leader dead at the hands of the Greeks, the Wallachians deserted en masse in the face of the approaching Ottomans, leaving the Greeks to face them alone. Sure enough, the Greeks of Wallachia were summarily crushed, Ypsilantis was forced into exile in Austria, and the Danubian Principalities were occupied until 1826.

Meanwhile in Serbia, plans for a renewed revolt against the Ottoman Empire were similarly disrupted following the murder of Karađorđe in 1817. His successor, Milos Obrenovic continued the fight from 1815 to 1817, he successfully negotiated an armistice with the Porte on the eve of the Greek Revolution. Although he remained open to restarting the war, negotiations with the Ottomans would achieve a moderate degree of autonomy for the Serbian people, snuffing out much of the support for any further bloodshed in the Northern Balkans. Whilst many Serbians, Montenegrins, and Vlachs would still go on to serve with distinction in the Hellenic Army and Hellenic Government during the Revolution like Vasos Mavrovouniotis and Chatzi Christos Dagovic, the broader failure of the Filiki Eteria to unite the Balkan Christians and drive the Turks out of the Balkans was largely seen as a missed opportunity by the Orthodox Commonwealth.

Philiki.jpg

Insignia of the Filiki Eteria​

The collapse of a united Orthodox front in the face of the Ottomans in 1821 was certainly a disappointment for many across the Balkans, yet it wouldn’t dissuade the most ardent from trying again. This time, instead of a secret society of philosophers, brigands and merchantmen from various tribes and communes, it would be a union of nation states with professional soldiers and proper warships. This alliance would take several decades to develop, however, as Greece in the wake of their War for Independence was thoroughly devastated and in desperate need of nation building at home. Meanwhile, its Northern counterparts of Serbia, Wallachia, Moldavia, and Montenegro remained under Ottoman suzerainty. Still under the sway of the Turks, Kostantîniyye could effectively control access to these countries, meddling in their affairs and limiting Greek correspondence significantly. While there were certainly work arounds, such as clandestine meetings or overtures through third parties, it would take considerably more time and resources to do so. Nevertheless, Athens endeavored to rebuilding its relations with its northern brethren.

Of the four other Christian Balkan States, Greece’s relationship with Serbia would be the fondest and most beneficial. Beginning in 1839, the Kingdom of Hellas and the Principality of Serbia would formally open consulates in each other’s respective capitals, with the Greek one in Belgrade opening in early April and the Serbian consulate opening in Athens in mid-November of that year. This would then be followed by a small number of trade agreements between the two states during the following months seeing large numbers of Serbian fruits, meats and dairy products shipped down the Danube River on Greek trading vessels. A similar deal seeing various Greek goods sold at Serbian markets was also approved in early 1841.

Sadly, the flourishing relations between the two states would come to an abrupt halt following the sudden retirement of Greek Prime Minister Ioannis Kapodistrias. Whilst his successor, Andreas Metaxas proved willing enough to continue negotiations and further strengthen ties with Belgrade; negotiations would be derailed yet again just a few months later when young Prince Mihailo Obrenovic of Serbia was deposed in favor of Alexander Karađorđević. Needing the consent of the Sublime Porte to ascend the vacant Serbian throne, Karađorđević backed out of all further talks with the Greek Government at the request of the Ottoman Government - who had taken umbrage at recent Greek subterfuge in Cyprus and Albania.

Hopes in Athens that this was just a singular event were unfortunately quashed as Prince Karađorđević would prove surprisingly cordial towards the Turks over his 16-year reign. Choosing diplomacy over belligerency, the Serbian Prince would successfully negotiate several treaties with Kostantîniyye that would see the Ottoman presence in Serbia gradually reduced. By the mid-1850s, Serbia was effectively independent with the last Turkish garrison in the country leaving by April of 1855 to join the ongoing Ottoman war against the Russians. Finally, Prince Alexander (or rather his benefactor Russia) would secure the formal independence of Serbia at the 1857 Treaty of Paris, officially ending over 400 years of Turkish rule. Yet this was not enough for some within his country. Given his tendency for absolutism, his routine flaunting of the Serbia legislature, and his strong Russophilia; Karađorđević would be ousted from power in a coup backed by Britain and France leading to his eventual abdication and exile in 1858. Few in Athens shed tears at his departure.

In his place returned the elder statesman Milos Obrenovic and his son Prince Mihailo who proved more receptive to the Greeks and reached out to gain support for their new regime. Greek Prime Minister Constantine Kanaris and the Hellenic Government consented to these talks and dispatched the elder statesman Dimitrios Karatasos to Belgrade several months later in the Spring of 1859. A veteran of the War for Independence, Karatasos was the perfect man for the job as he had long advocated for closer ties between the Hellenes and the Serbs and had visited the country many times over the past 30 years. Upon his arrival in Belgrade, he would be welcomed by the Prime Minister of the newly independent Serbia, Ilija Garašanin with whom he would enter into negotiations with over the next few weeks.


Yero_Tsiamis_of_Chalkidiki%2C_Greek_Macedonian_revolutionary_1854.jpg
Ilija_Gara%C5%A1anin_%28cropped%29.jpg

Dimitrios Karastos (Left) and Ilija Garašanin (Right)​

First and foremost, in recognition of Serbia’s formal independence from Ottoman Suzerainty, the Greek consulate in Belgrade was elevated into a proper embassy, with the Greek Consul in Belgrade (Karatasos) assuming the office and title of Ambassador. The Hellenic State also agreed to recognize Serbia’s elevation to a proper Kingdom, from that of a lesser Principality awarding Prince Milos and his government all the customs and courtesies due such a rank. Next, the Bank of Greece (at the request of the Greek Government) was empowered to issue loans to the Serbian Government in return for favorable trade conditions for Greek merchants. Finally, Karatasos would announce his Government’s support for the renewed Obrenovic Monarchy over the ousted Karađorđevićs.

Noticeably absent from these discussions between the Greek and Serbian Governments was any indication of a military alliance between their two states. The fault for this omission would not belong to dying King Milos Obrenovic or his Prime Minister Ilija Garašanin who both supported defensive ties with Hellas. Nor can the Hellenic Government of Constantine Kanaris or their man on the ground Dimitrios Karatasos be blamed as both called for stronger relations with Belgrade. No, it would be King Leopold of Greece who had derailed negotiations this time.

A cautious man by nature, Leopold was incredibly reluctant to antagonize the Ottoman Empire whose strength he routinely overestimated, a sentiment that had only grown as he grew older. Although he recognized the great passion his subjects held towards the Megali Idea, of reclaiming their lost homelands, of avenging themselves and their families against the hated Turks; he could not bring himself to supporting such a measure that would lead to death and devastation and the potential ruin of his country. Whilst he was certainly no pacifist, Leopold remembered well the destruction and pain of the Napoleonic Wars. The pain of losing a father, a homeland to fires of war; it was something he wished to never see again especially when it was his state at risk of devastation.

It also cannot be denied that Leopold feared losing the favor of the Great Powers, especially Great Britain who was the chief ally of the Ottomans. In Leopold’s opinion, any overt move against the Sublime Porte would likely agitate Westminster against Athens which would be a disaster on both a political and personal level for Leopold. Moreso, Leopold feared that an alliance with Serbia would jeopardize Greece’s defensive guarantees from Britain, France and Russia. Whilst friendship and cooperation with Serbia and the other Balkan States was certainly welcome, it could never replace the protection and prominence that came from the Great European Powers in his opinion. Ultimately, the most Mihailo and the Serbian Government would ever pry out of the miserly old King Leopold was a vague promise to “support Serbia should it’s frontiers be invaded by a foreign power.”


Unsurprisingly, Leopold’s own son Diadochos Constantine held a differing opinion on the matter, (correctly) viewing the Powers as competing rivals more than a cohesive block. This had been seen most recently with the Russian War, as Britain and Russia came to blows over Russian influence over the Ottoman Empire. Similarly, the Belgian War would see France and Prussia fight over the fate of the Flemings whilst Britain looked the other way and ignored a similar guarantee to defend Belgium’s territorial integrity all in the name of Great Power politics. Such conflicts made clear to the Prince that the Powers of Europe were utterly divided and behaved in accordance with their own base desires.

Looking to the Powers themselves, Prince Constantine was not alone in believing that Russia was firmly on their side and would support them in any venture against the Turk regardless of the casus belli. France was a harder sell for some, but the Hellenic Government had made considerable efforts to solidify relations with Paris under the Kolettis and later Kanaris Regimes. The German powers were deemed to have no real sway on matter, leaving only Britain as a potential obstacle in their path. London did have a vested interest in a strong and stable Ottoman Empire, but they also had interests in Greece as well. If Britain pushed too hard against Greece, then they ran the risk of losing them completely to France, or worse Russia. Ultimately Constantine believed that Britain could be convinced to replace a dying Turkish Empire with an ascendant Greek Empire.

Pressing ahead with his ambitions, Diadochos Constantine in a rare stroke of luck and diplomatic genius would meet with Prince Mihailo of Serbia during a chance encounter in 1857 at the Paris Peace Conference. Although nearly ten years his junior, Constantine found a kindred spirit in Mihailo and found himself talking to the Serbian Prince well into the night. They discussed everything under the sun from politics and government to their hobbies and their interests. Naturally discussions transitioned to their respective ambitions for their states, which were quite similar with each desiring the aggrandizement of their homelands through war with the Turks. Thereafter, the two Princes were inseparable for the remainder of the Peace Conference until finally, business and politics drew the two away. Although they would rarely meet in person thereafter, their relationship endured through letters and the rare encounter over the coming months and years.
+
330px-Knez_Mihajlo_III_Obrenovic.jpg


+
King Mihailo I Obrenovic of Serbia​

The death of King Leopold in early 1864 would thus remove the final obstacle between full Hellenic and Serbian cooperation against the Turks. Although it would take some time to become apparent, Leopold’s passing and the appointment of Panos Kolokotronis marked a decisive shift in Greece’s foreign policy. By late Fall, with his government firmly ensconced and with the new King’s blessing, Prime Minister Panos Kolokotronis dispatched his brother, the Foreign Minister Konstantinos Kolokotronis on a “grand tour of the Balkans”.

Traveling first to Trieste, Konstantinos and his staff would travel towards Vienna under the auspices of discussing a possible betrothal between Emperor Franz Joseph’s second daughter Gisela to Diadochos Konstantinos (the eldest son of King Constantine). Negotiations would quickly breakdown over discussion of a dowry, prompting Foreign Minister Kolokotronis to depart for Hungary. Once in Budapest, he would pay his respects for the recent passing of King Lajos Batthany, offering condolences to his son and heir Prince Elemér. Later he would wine and dine with the elder statesman Lajos Kossuth, broaching the topic of closer trade relations with Hungary. After a week in Budapest, Kolokotronis would then travel down the Danube to Belgrade, arriving during the Christmas season. There, his true mission would begin. Over the coming days, Konstantinos Kolokotronis, Ilija Garašanin and their respective staffs would hammer out a deal that would shape the future of the Balkans.

On the surface, the Kolokotronis- Garašanin Accord (or Christmas Accord as it is commonly called) would seem rather mundane. To begin with, Athens and Belgrade would reaffirm their historical friendship with one another and formalize King Leopold’s earlier “guarantee” of a defensive alliance between their two states. Next would be several pages worth of idle flattery by each diplomat towards the other’s respective head of state and a betrothal arrangement by King Constantine of Greece, who offered his eldest daughter Maria’s hand to King Mihailo’s “nephew” and heir Prince Milan once they came of age. Finally, the Hellenic Government agreed to supply Serbia with a number of Minié Rifles that the Hellenic Army could agree to part ways with, to aid Belgrade in their search for a new rifle. However, this was only the official treaty.

Hidden behind closed doors; a number of secret articles were secretly agreed to with their contents only revealed to a select number of people in both the Hellenic and Serbian Governments. The First of these secret articles would see both Serbia and Greece officially united in opposition against the Ottoman Empire, with its destruction and removal from Europe being their ultimate objective. The Second Article would outline their respective goals and territorial aspirations to the former Ottoman Balkan possessions following said conflict. Finally, the third Article would detail each countries’ military, material, and economic commitments to their pact and their stratagem for victory.

Greek-Delegation-Berlin-Congress.jpg

Members of the Greek Delegation to Belgrade circa 1865

Under the Kolokotronis-Garašanin Accord; the Hellenic Government expressed its claims to the North Aegean Islands, Macedonia, the entirety of Ottoman Thrace, the Straits region and Constantinople in addition to other non-Balkan territories such as the Asia Minor Coast and Cyprus. Athens would also express a lesser desire to advance their frontier into the Vilayet of Albania, removing the Ottoman presence in the region. Whilst some within Athens would call for the complete conquest of Albania and its annexation into the Hellenic State, most members of the Kolokotronis Government took a more reasoned approach suggesting that the province be turned into a client state that would be diplomatically, economically, and militarily dependent upon the Kingdom of Greece for its survival.

The Kingdom of Serbia was equally ambitious in it claims as Belgrade wished to unite the South Slavic peoples into a Greater South Slavic state - Yugoslavia. Their goals largely correlated to the annexation of Bosnia, Herzegovina, Novi Pazar, Kosovo, and much of Macedonia. Members of the Serbian Government also admitted their aspirations for a port along the Adriatic coast via Northern Albania. Finally, Belgrade revealed their ambitions to unify their nation with that of the Bulgarians. Whilst many in Athens viewed this last point as dubious at best – few Bulgarians had actually been consulted on this matter and that the Bulgarians would ultimately come to dominate such a union; Foreign Minister Kolokotronis consented to the Serbian terms with the exception of Macedonia which was similarly claimed by the Greek delegation. Eventually, the two sides would reach a compromise with Greece gaining “Littoral Macedonia” and Serbia receiving “Inland Macedonia” with the exact border being decided by their troops on the ground.

Whilst settling their competing claims was certainly all well and good, they would require extensive planning and preparation for the coming war with the Turks to actually achieve their stated goals. Article Three of the Kolokotronis- Garašanin Accord would thusly cover troop deployments and mobilization of their respective armed forces against the Ottoman Empire. Looking first to the Sublime Porte and its available resources, it was determined through reliable sources in Kostantîniyye that they possessed an Army in the range of 380,000 to 400,000 soldiers. However, of this sum, only half were stationed in the Balkans and many of this number were 2nd and 3rd line troops of dubious quality. Similarly, the Ottoman Navy whilst large at over 80 naval vessels; it only possessed modern 3 ironclad warships with four more in various states of construction and another 30 or so steamships rounding out its forces.[2] To combat this, the Hellenes and Serbians would need to raise a comparable number of men and ships if they were to fulfill their respective goals.

In 1864, the Hellenic Kingdom boasted a professional army of 48,000 soldiers split between 5 infantry divisions, a cavalry brigade, 3 artillery regiments and the Frourá – the Royal Guard Brigade. They could also mobilize the Ethnofylaki, the Hellenic National Guard adding on paper another 40,000 men to the Alliance, although many of these men were considered to be second or third line troops. The Serbians in turn had a professional army of around 4,000 men upon their independence in 1860, although this had slowly grown over the following years. In addition to this, Belgrade could also call upon the Narodna Vojska (the National Militia) adding in theory another 120,000 men to the cause, although Serbian Prime Minister Ilija Garašanin would later admit that his country could only supply half this number. Thus, Greece and Serbia at present could muster around 150,000 troops between them, of which nearly two thirds were militiamen.

In terms of naval capabilities, the Kingdom of Serbia possessed little in the way of a proper navy, with it only fielding a handful of gunboats and minelayers on the Danube River. Greece in turn, possessed a moderately sized Green Water Navy of 56 warships ranging from old sailing sloops and brigs to 13 newer steamships of the screw frigate, screw corvette, and screw sloop variety. The Hellenic Navy was also beginning its forays into ironclad construction, launching the Vasilefs Leopoldos in late 1864. The Vasilefs Leopoldos was part of the Salamis class which were broadside ironclad warships with a projected displacement of around 4600 tons, with 4.75-inch belt armor, four 8 inch guns, and twenty-two 6.4 inch cannons rounding it out. The Vasilefs Leopoldos would be later joined by its sister ship, the Vasilissa Maria in early 1865. However, the completion of the Leopoldos and Maria would do little to change the naval balance as they paled in comparison to the 3 Osmaniye class ironclads fielded by the Ottomans both in armor (4.75 inches to 5.5) and armaments (8-inch main batteries to the Turk’s 9-inch main guns).


Ancona1870.jpg
z
VP Vasilefs Leopoldos

Whilst both the Hellenic and Serbian Governments trusted that their soldiers and sailors could win out over the Turks in the heat of battle, their entire strategy would rely upon the success or failure of the Hellenic Navy. If the Greek fleet could win out against their Turkish counterparts, then the Aegean Sea could be secured, denying the Ottoman Army the ability to rapidly reinforce their armies in the Balkans. Whilst they could still travel overland from the Levant and Mesopotamia to Anatolia then from Anatolia to Thrace and eventually Macedonia, it would take many weeks, if not months for this process to take place given the Ottoman Empire’s pitiful infrastructure in their eastern territories. By that point, the contest in the Western Balkans would likely be decided, with the Powers likely moving in to enforce an armistice.

Whilst Athens and Belgrade doubted that they could achieve everything they desired in this one conflict, they believed that they could get more than enough if they moved fast enough and decisively enough to occupy it before the Powers intervened. As such, both resolved to augment their existing forces through various means over the coming months and years to swing the tides in their favor. For Greece this meant the introduction of a conscription system along Prussian lines and the continuation of former Prime Minister Constantine Kanaris’ naval buildup program to keep pace with the Ottoman Navy. The Serbians would in turn work to increase their stockpile of weapons and munitions to field the entirety of their National Militia against the Turks. Over the course of the next 6 years, the two allies would make further preparations for their clash with the Ottomans, with Greece beginning its search for more potent rifles and artillery, whilst the Serbs sought to improve the training and discipline of their troops. Lastly, both Athens and Belgrade would look to broaden their alliance through the inclusion of various Greek, Serbian, and Bulgarian partisan groups along with the other two Balkan states Montenegro and Wallachia-Moldavia.

Relations between Greece and Montenegro were quite peculiar as Athens had been cordial but distant to Cetinje as its mercurial vassalage to the Ottoman Empire, limited resources and economic potential deterred Athens from making a decisive effort to ally with Cetinje for many years. This changed following Montenegro’s formal independence from the Ottoman Empire in 1857 as Greece would soon establish a consulate in the small country, later upgrading it to a full embassy in 1864. Relations steadily improved from there and ultimately culminating in 1867 when the Montenegrin Government was suddenly presented with the opportunity to join Greece and Serbia in their Alliance against the Ottomans.

Needing little persuasion, Cetinje immediately jumped at the opportunity, seeing it as a chance to secure a much desire coastline along the Adriatic and expand their state. Although their resources were few, the Prince of Montenegro, Danilo I Petrović-Njegoš pledged 16,000 men to the Alliance, now dubbed the Balkan League in return for guarantees to Ottoman territory and financial support from the other League members. Although hesitant to provide subsidies to the Montenegrins, Athens agreed to furnish a number of loans to Cetinje to procure armaments and train troops for the coming war with the Turks. The Serbians were similarly reluctant to surrender any of their claimed territory to the Montenegrins (Ulcinj, Scutari, and Sandžak), but conceded in return for additional gains elsewhere in Northern Macedonia.


Danilo_Petrovi%C4%87_Njego%C5%A1.jpg

Prince Danilo I of Montenegro

Efforts to entice Bucharest to join their Alliance against the Turks would prove more difficult. Although it had been more than 40 years, there remained some lingering resentment over the rule of the Phanariots in Wallachia and Moldavia as their mismanagement and corruption had impoverished these countries for generations. More recently there was a growing conflict over the fate of the Aromanian peoples, who both Athens and Bucharest contested were their kin. Bucharest took umbrage at what it saw as the forced Hellenization of its peoples living within Greek territory; rewarding those who assimilated, whilst persecuting those that did not.

Athens denied this in the most vigorous manner possible, claiming that the Aromanians were a Hellenic people akin to the Souliots and Arvanites, and were subject to every right that any other Greek citizens enjoyed. The Hellenic Government supported their claims by declaring that the Aromanians within Greece followed the Greek Rite, they obeyed Greek laws, they wore Greek clothing and took up Greek names. Their leaders and many of the younger generations of Aromanians spoke fluent Greek as their primary language. Regrettably, Bucharest remained unconvinced of the matter making for a thorny issue between the would be allies.

Beyond the Aromanian Question, there was also the matter of what concessions Wallachia-Moldavia would receive if it joined the Balkan League against the Turks. It had few claims to Ottoman Territory, although it certainly desired a firmer control of the Danubian Delta via Dobruja. Nor would it be opposed to gains along the left bank of the Danube River either, securing its economic viability, although this brought it into conflict with the Serbian Government who also desired these lands for its proclaimed Yugoslavia. However, its true ambitions lay to the North, not the South, as it desired the liberation and unification of Transylvania. Greece had no quarrel with the Kingdom of Hungary and whilst Serbia did desire the Banat; Budapest had gone to considerable lengths to bolster relations with Belgrade. As negotiations appeared to be heading nowhere fast, the Romanian Government threatened to walk out of the talks leaving Greece, Serbia, and Montenegro on their own to face the Ottomans.

Complicating matters immensely was the decision by members of the Romanian Government led by Lascăr Catargiu to leak terms of these negotiations to the Russians in the Fall of 1869. Whilst Romania was theoretically an independent state following the Great Russian War, it was by all accounts a Russian satellite state that took its cues from St. Petersburg. The Russian Government had been vaguely aware of the Balkan League since its inception back in early 1865, yet it failed to grasp the true intentions of the group, believing it to instead be an economic or diplomatic front meant to bolster their influence. The revelations by Catargiu and his associates would, however, undoubtedly set off alarms in the Winter Palace. Not only were the Balkan States aligning together in armed opposition to the Ottomans, they were also planning to divvy up the spoils of the Turkish carcass between themselves. Whereas before, the Balkan League as an amusing, if otherwise harmless organization, now they were seen as a potential threat to Russian interests in the Balkans.

Despite its long history of violence and animosity towards the Turks, in the aftermath of the Russo-Turkish War of 1854-1857 Russia had effectively broken the will of the Ottoman Empire. The Porte was stripped of its Balkan tributaries losing Wallachia, Moldavia, Serbia and Montenegro to St. Petersburg. Its peoples rebelled against it, its economy was in ruins, its government was divided, its armies were ravaged, and its navy was a burnt-out wreck resting on the seafloor. Most importantly, Russia had gained supremacy over the straits, denying foreign ships entry, whilst enabling their own merchant ships to pass unmolested. Although their warships were still restricted from exiting the Black Sea, it was a minor inconvenience at best that could be redressed at a later date. Thus, the Turks were no threat to Russia post 1857; they were a weakling that could be easily coerced and manipulated to suit whatever needs St. Petersburg had for it. Whilst there were things that could certainly be better, the current status quo was very much to their liking. Any move to change it for good or ill would be seen as an affront against them and contrary to their wishes.

Although no one knew it at the time, relations between Russia and the Balkan League member states were also beginning to strain. The ouster of the Karađorđević dynasty from Belgrade had upset Russia’s plans for Serbia, as France and Britain grew in influence over the country, whilst distancing itself from St. Petersburg. Whilst they still cared for the Serbs as a fellow Slavic and Eastern Orthodox people, this betrayal stung for many in the Winter Palace as Russia had gone to great lengths supporting their fight for independence in 1804,1815, 1828, and most recently in 1854 only for the Serbs to effectively spit in their face and join with their recent adversary Great Britain.

Greece was also a troubling case for St. Petersburg. It had long been an ally of Russia and had even supported them with material aid and volunteers during the last war with the Turks. Yet its claims on Tsargrad, the Bosporus and Dardanelles Straits concerned St. Petersburg who desired these lands for themselves. Any conflict in the Straits would negatively impact Russian trade through the region, bringing immense economic hardship to the Motherland. Moreover, any power gaining control over the Straits, especially one that was in bed with Great Britain was simply unacceptable to St. Petersburg as they could likewise limit Russian access to the Straits. No, it was decided that the Russian Empire would move to pacify the Balkan League through diplomacy, coercion and, if necessary, force. Sadly, for all involved, it was already too late; for the Ottoman Empire in the midst of economic collapse and civil unrest proved too tempting a target for the League to pass up. The long march to war had begun.

Next Time: A Sublime Mess

[1] This point is a little iffy. I’ve seen sources that state Vladimirescu was a member of the Society, and others that say he wasn’t a formal member, but still working with them in a close capacity. Either way he was in correspondence with them and agreed to work with Alexander Ypsilantis during the 1821 Rebellion in Wallachia, only to back out at the last possible second.
[2] For reference, in OTL the Ottoman Navy only fielded 49 ships (29 sailing ships and 20 steamships) in 1855 following the outbreak of the Crimean War. By 1876 this number had grown to nearly 200 ships with 27 ironclad warships as Sultan Abdulaziz was very partial towards the Navy. Given the greater financial limitations and reduced resources of the Ottoman Empire here, I’m inclined to reduce their number of ships by quite a bit ITTL.
 
Last edited:
The Balkan league are definitely moving to fight the Ottomans, and things are getting very interesting. I definitely wonder how well they'd do (Greece could do well or poorly). I defo wonder what states we'd see post war, but there is no doubt that the League will split into competing blocs post war: Greece and Serbia probably will stick together, but Albania and Bulgaria will complicate things, not to mention Italy and Austria having interests in the region will probably complicate the politics within the Balkans.

I defo wonder would we get a yugoslavian-greek marriage tho. It'd be interesting to see a royal match like that especially as Greece grows as a power of its own with its own interests.
 
Whoever decided ITTL that it was a better plan to woo the Romanians rather than get Egypt to flank the ottomans was either blinded by religious zeal or dumb. The Romanians have the least to gain from this adventure, especially with Serbia calling dibs on Bulgaria. Honestly it might have been better to try an get an Italian power involved in exchange for rump Albania after everyone made their border adjustments. That’s not a criticism of your story by the way @Earl Marshal, it’s incredibly believable to me. I can easily see them being so blinded by bias.
 
Ah someone went for Regina Maria Pia class ironclads I see, although the republican in me dislikes the names chosen. Two notes though. First the guns of the initial armament were most likely rifled not smoothbores as cited in Wikepedia. Navypedia speaks of British made guns (4x8in Armstrong and 22 6.4 Palliser). And it makes sense, a 32 pdr would be useless against an ironclad and the ships were French built, if the guns were French made as well (though the Italians tended to prefer British) the French 6.4in used from Gloire onward was also rifled.

Second no matter what is the initial armament by the time of the war the ships will be converted to central battery ships just as the Italians had done with their vessels post Lissa with 2x9in Armstrong and 9x8in Armstrong Rifled Muzzle-loading ships each, conversion cost and time would be negligible and it would bring the ships much closer to the Osmaniyeh in firepower (2x9in & 9x8in with a 2075 pdr broadside to 1x9in & 14x8in with a 2700 pdr broadside)

I'm waiting to see what the next class of ironclads that almost certainly will be there by wartime is going to be. I'm counting a budget around 700.000 pounds, possibly more so what's going to be. That's about enough for a pair of ships like either HMS Devastation or HMS Sultan. Or 3 smaller ships like HMS Superb or HMS Audacious. I'd be personally inclined towards the first option as it gives the RHN a clear qualitative advantage over the Ottomans and Greek naval planners will be looking for that. So... Salamis and Themistocles? Themistocles and Miaoulis? We shall see.
 
Woo, let's go! And congrats on 100 Chapters!

It's fun seeing the earlier proclamation of the Kingdom of Serbia, that's likely to impact the long-term prominence of the Obrenović dynasty. And we're getting the Balkan League we were denied OTL, so exciting! This is going to be a shocker of a war.

It's funny the Russians see the current circumstances with Serbia as a betrayal, given how their involvement and withdrawal from the first Serbian Uprising basically doomed it due to using the Serbs as cannon fodder, they wouldn't be involved in the Second Serbian Uprising until after the Greek War of Independence happened, and the Serbian government, though allowing its people to fight for the Russians, remained neutral in the last war. It's all about using-or-being-used with the Russians. This time however, as had been proven time and time before, the Serbs do not need them, and won't need them. The only ones those in the Balkans need are one another.
 
Whoever decided ITTL that it was a better plan to woo the Romanians rather than get Egypt to flank the ottomans was either blinded by religious zeal or dumb. The Romanians have the least to gain from this adventure, especially with Serbia calling dibs on Bulgaria. Honestly it might have been better to try an get an Italian power involved in exchange for rump Albania after everyone made their border adjustments. That’s not a criticism of your story by the way @Earl Marshal, it’s incredibly believable to me. I can easily see them being so blinded by bias.
NO mention is made of the Egyptians. I wouldn't presume there are no Greek diplomats in Cairo quietly trying to get the khedive on side. I'd note though that getting the Egyptians involved prematurely brings the risk of the Ottomans learning what goes on prematurely...
 
If Greece got even half of these lands would they become a minority within their own state? I mean unless their was a massive case of ethnic cleansing of course, though even then securing Anatolia from attacks will be a decades long painful process, specially as Russia would very much have incentive to make sure Greece has a black eye for the betrayal they feel from them.

That said I think we may see a temporary rapprochement in relations with Russia for many of the league for the simple reason, new status quo's are hard to predict let's be cautious for now.

The Ottoman empire being destroyed will change everything in the region and I suspect Britain despite it all is not going to be pleased with that, plus given how the Balkan league ended I can very much see Russia's trade relations between get messed up with the wars, tariffs and trade wars and so have at least some attempts to reconcile with Greece who was their life line not that long ago, even if it won't last.
 
Not really Macedonia and thrace have a large populations of greeks..and as of the Slavic population as long there orthodox they can be convinced that they're greeks.. after all in otl the thing that distinguished the greeks form the Bulgarians in Macedonia wasn't language or culture but was church they followed.
Besides earl has hinted that this war will not be a clear success for the Balkan nations
 
Last edited:
In this time period of nationalism, pretty much it was major propaganda and education campaigns that would define the future ethnic boundaries in those regions.
 
If Greece got even half of these lands would they become a minority within their own state? I mean unless their was a massive case of ethnic cleansing of course, though even then securing Anatolia from attacks will be a decades long painful process, specially as Russia would very much have incentive to make sure Greece has a black eye for the betrayal they feel from them.

That said I think we may see a temporary rapprochement in relations with Russia for many of the league for the simple reason, new status quo's are hard to predict let's be cautious for now.

The Ottoman empire being destroyed will change everything in the region and I suspect Britain despite it all is not going to be pleased with that, plus given how the Balkan league ended I can very much see Russia's trade relations between get messed up with the wars, tariffs and trade wars and so have at least some attempts to reconcile with Greece who was their life line not that long ago, even if it won't last.
They'll probably be a pluralistic majority in their own state, and the ppl living in Thrace and Ionia will probably be kicked out or assimilated, which. The Aromanians probably would continue be assimilated too, as with ppl in the Greek Autocephalous Church, and the Greeks are growing in population which would make the state more Greek in general.

Ps other than Ionia the lands are mostly orthodox with the other ppl being Muslim, which probably would get pushed away (or they help the balkan nations), and many different groups within the Balkans only developed their national identity in the 19th century as the Ottomans collapsed and different ideas came to the forefront. I defo hope we'd get Albania as a protectorate of Greece with a bunch become Christian tho.
 
That was a great analysis of the butterflies unleased by the timeline so far and the alt-Crimean War in particular. Sensible and plausible.

One particular point attracted my attention: greek banks providing loans to Serbia. Even if those loans are absolutely miniscule compared to the bonds floated in the major markets, it is still a major development. Developing Athens to a peripheral and minor financial center provides a major snowball effect. There is a lot of soft (and sometimes not so soft) power when it comes to the Balkan States that are still based on substistence farming, so their capital needs are quite light. If the banking sector is relatively thriving, then there are a lot of opportunities for Greek businessmen in the Ottoman Empire and Egypt who in OTL 19th century rarely had access to modern banking.
 
Last edited:
Great update @Earl Marshal ! I think that the Balkan Alliance will also try to support various rebels in the European teriitorries of the Ottoman Empire. As for Egypt participating against Ottoman Empire it makes sence, we will have to wait ans see.
 
Finally, the Hellenic Government agreed to supply the Serbian National Militia with a number of old Baker Rifles and Minié Rifles that the Hellenic Army could agree to part ways with. However, this was only the official treaty.
The Serbs had something around 125,000 rifles in 1862 in OTL. In 1866 they bought 60,000 more (27,000 Lorenz and 33,000 Belgian ones), donating 5.000 to Montenegro, to convert them to breechloaders, which the did using the Green system (NOT a good idea) and the Peabody along apparently with the Wanzl and Krnka systems for other Austrian and Russian made rifles and brand new Werndl rifles. So getting a few old Greek rifles is likely of questionable value here...
Under the Kolokotronis-Garašanin Accord; the Hellenic Government expressed its claims to the North Aegean Islands, Macedonia, the entirety of Ottoman Thrace, the Straits region and Constantinople in addition to other non-Balkan territories such as the Asia Minor Coast and Cyprus.
Seems to me a bit excessive when the border just reached the Olympus? At least OTL Greece, as a state, looking into Asia Minor was very late development.
In terms of naval capabilities, the Kingdom of Serbia possessed little in the way of a proper navy, with it only fielding a handful of gunboats and minelayers on the Danube River. Greece in turn, possessed a moderately sized Green Water Navy of 56 warships ranging from old sailing sloops and brigs to 13 newer steamships of the screw frigate, screw corvette, and screw sloop variety. The Hellenic Navy was also beginning its forays into ironclad construction, launching the Vasilefs Leopoldos in late 1864. The Vasilefs Leopoldos was part of the Salamis class which were broadside ironclad warships with a projected displacement of around 4600 tons, with 4.75-inch belt armor, four 72-pounder cannons, and twenty-two 32-pounders rounding it out. The Vasilefs Leopoldos would be later joined by its sister ship, the Vasilissa Maria in early 1865. However, the completion of the Leopoldos and Maria would do little to change the naval balance as they paled in comparison to the 3 (soon to be 7) Osmaniye class ironclads fielded by the Ottomans both in armor (4.75 inches to 5.5) and armaments (8-inch main batteries to the Turk’s 9-inch main guns).
Arguably not so much particularly after being rearmed after 1866. Now for some reason I've read it as Greece building 4 of these (we know for certain of at least 3 including Salamis)
Whilst both the Hellenic and Serbian Governments trusted that their soldiers and sailors could win out over the Turks in the heat of battle,
The Hellenic navy has never lost a battle to the Ottomans. Just saying. :p
their entire strategy would rely upon the success or failure of the Hellenic Navy. If the Greek fleet could win out against their Turkish counterparts, then the Aegean Sea could be secured, denying the Ottoman Army the ability to rapidly reinforce their armies in the Balkans. Whilst they could still travel overland from the Levant and Mesopotamia to Anatolia then from Anatolia to Thrace and eventually Macedonia, it would take many weeks, if not months for this process to take place given the Ottoman Empire’s pitiful infrastructure in their eastern territories. By that point, the contest in the Western Balkans would likely be decided and the Powers would move in to enforce an armistice.

Whilst Athens and Belgrade doubted that they could achieve everything they desired in this one conflict, they believed that they could get more than enough if they moved fast enough and decisively enough to occupy it before the Powers intervened. As such, both resolved to augment their existing forces through various means over the coming months and years to swing the tides in their favor. For Greece this meant the introduction of a conscription system and the continuation of former Prime Minister Constantine Kanaris’ naval buildup program to keep pace with the Ottoman Navy. The Serbians would in turn work to increase their stockpile of weapons and munitions to field the entirety of their National Militia against the Turks.
Serbia is not introducing conscription properly? 6-7 years by the way is interesting timing... the Prussian model, and the Greeks will be copying some version of it like Piedmont since at the moment it's the only game in town, unless Niels got his way with Napoleon II ahead of 1869 when he would have had with Napoleon III was calling for 7 classes of conscripts in the field army...
Needing little persuasion, Cetinje immediately jumped at the opportunity, seeing it as a chance to secure a much desire coastline along the Adriatic and expand their state. Although their resources were few, the Prince of Montenegro, Danilo I Petrović-Njegoš pledged 16,000 men to the Alliance, now dubbed the Balkan League in return for guarantees to Ottoman territory and financial support from the other League members. Although hesitant to provide subsidies to the Montenegrins, Athens agreed to furnish a number of loans to Cetinje to procure armaments and train troops for the coming war with the Turks. The Serbians were similarly reluctant to surrender any of their claimed territory to the Montenegrins (Ulcinj, Scutari, and Sandžak), but conceded in return for additional gains elsewhere in Northern Macedonia.
For the Serbs, Montenegro is a brother Serb state with many if not most hoping at eventual union...
Efforts to entice Bucharest to join their Alliance against the Turks would prove more difficult. Although it had been more than 40 years, there remained some lingering resentment over the rule of the Phanariots in Wallachia and Moldavia as their mismanagement and corruption had impoverished these countries for generations. More recently there was a growing conflict over the fate of the Aromanian peoples, who both Athens and Bucharest contested were their kin. Bucharest took umbrage at what it saw as the forced Hellenization of its peoples living within Greek territory; rewarding those who assimilated, whilst persecuting those that did not.
There was? Romania certainly DID get its sights on Greek Vlachs in OTL but from memory that was later in the 19th century.

Athens denied this in the most vigorous manner possible, claiming that the Aromanians were a Hellenic people akin to the Souliots and Arvanites, and were subject to every right that any other Greek citizens enjoyed. The Hellenic Government supported their claims by declaring that the Aromanians within Greece followed the Greek Rite, they obeyed Greek laws, they wore Greek clothing and took up Greek names. Their leaders and many of the younger generations of Aromanians spoke fluent Greek as their primary language. Regrettably, Bucharest remained unconvinced of the matter making for a thorny issue between the would be allies.
Well below can be seen certain arguments for the Greek point of view from OTL. :angel:
1280px-%22Averof%22_in_dark_gray_paint%2C_c.1913.jpg


1024px-NTUA_Averof_Building_Main_Facade.jpg

tositsaia.png


Greece was also a troubling case for St. Petersburg. It had long been an ally of Russia and had even supported them with material aid and volunteers during the last war with the Turks. Yet its claims on Tsargrad, the Bosporus and Dardanelles Straits concerned St. Petersburg who desired these lands for themselves. Any conflict in the Straits would negatively impact Russian trade through the region, bringing immense economic hardship to the Motherland. Moreover, any power gaining control over the Straits, especially one that was in bed with Great Britain was simply unacceptable to St. Petersburg as they could likewise limit Russian access to the Straits. No, it was decided that the Russian Empire would move to pacify the Balkan League through diplomacy, coercion and, if necessary, force. Sadly, for all involved, it was already too late; for the Ottoman Empire in the midst of economic collapse and civil unrest proved too tempting a target for the League to pass up. The long march to war had begun.
Now that's funny. Because if Russia is hostile to the League and prefers the Ottomans as a satellite not unlike 1833... that's affecting the calculation for Britain and France. Not unlike the first Balkan war I would add...
 
The Serbs had something around 125,000 rifles in 1862 in OTL. In 1866 they bought 60,000 more (27,000 Lorenz and 33,000 Belgian ones), donating 5.000 to Montenegro, to convert them to breechloaders, which the did using the Green system (NOT a good idea) and the Peabody along apparently with the Wanzl and Krnka systems for other Austrian and Russian made rifles and brand new Werndl rifles. So getting a few old Greek rifles is likely of questionable value here...
You can always toss them into the reserves, I guess.

But you know, sometimes I forget the roots of today's Zastava Arms go back to 1853, when the Topolivnica factory in Kragujevac was established. Makes me wonder whether Topolivnica will grow to the same prominence it did OTL, though the partnership it had with Mauser in the late 1870s is probably butterflied, since who knows whether the circumstances that led to that deal (Mauser facing bankruptcy and finding Serbia in need for a new standard rifle just in time to pen a deal and save itself) would repeat TTL, very sensitive.
For the Serbs, Montenegro is a brother Serb state with many if not most hoping at eventual union...
That all depends on the terms on which such a union would occur. While I haven't checked to see whether this would be the case, there's always the chance that Danilo Petrović-Njegoš and the Montenegrin court have no interest in unification if it doesn't involve himself as King, which you could imagine could butt heads with Mihailo Obrenović... assuming a deal isn't reached to have the two dynasties come together, ala the OTL marriage of Mirko Dimitri Petrović-Njegoš with Natalija Konstantinović (which could've led to the former becoming king of Serbia had the May Coup not happened).
Serbia is not introducing conscription properly? 6-7 years by the way is interesting timing... the Prussian model, and the Greeks will be copying some version of it like Piedmont since at the moment it's the only game in town, unless Niels got his way with Napoleon II ahead of 1869 when he would have had with Napoleon III was calling for 7 classes of conscripts in the field army...
Briefly checking online, according to the Serbian military itself, in August 1861, a Law on the National Militia was passed, making all able-bodied men between the ages of 20 and 50 liable for military service. There's even a PDF version of the 1864 version of the law available on the government's own website, under 'Zakon o ustrojstvu vojske od 20. marta 1864. godine'. It wouldn't be until 1883 when we would see the Law on the Organization of the Standing Army, and have Serbia fall in line with most European armies, in part thanks to the presence of Hippolyte Mondain, but there was some form of conscription already.
 
An interesting update, and the conclusion that can be drawn from it is that the war will rely on 2 things: The strength of a Bulgarian uprising, and the fate of the aegean. With good preparation and intense military funding, the balkan alliance can make a credible threat to the European half of the Empire, but if they plan to get very far they will need a substantial Bulgarian uprising behind the front lines- enough to tie down tens of thousands of troops and disrupt supplies for the rest. A significant Bulgarian presence seems like the most likely stumbling block over the whole affair. Even if the Albanians are equally reticent, they don't have the force to be as disruptive as the Bulgars.

The most important engagements of the war, even if they look indecisive, will be the naval ones. With several more years to go between the treaty and wars start, I am very curious how the final fleets look.
 
quarrel


Thank you for the chapter!
Thank you for reading !

@Earl Marshal ! Incredible chapter! can't wait to see what's next!
@Earl Marshal and congratulations on reaching the 100 chapter Hallmark!🤘🤘🤘🔥🔥
Thank you both! 100 chapters took a bit longer than I expected, but we finally got here!

Whoever decided ITTL that it was a better plan to woo the Romanians rather than get Egypt to flank the ottomans was either blinded by religious zeal or dumb. The Romanians have the least to gain from this adventure, especially with Serbia calling dibs on Bulgaria. Honestly it might have been better to try an get an Italian power involved in exchange for rump Albania after everyone made their border adjustments. That’s not a criticism of your story by the way @Earl Marshal, it’s incredibly believable to me. I can easily see them being so blinded by bias.
NO mention is made of the Egyptians. I wouldn't presume there are no Greek diplomats in Cairo quietly trying to get the khedive on side. I'd note though that getting the Egyptians involved prematurely brings the risk of the Ottomans learning what goes on prematurely...
So I'd like to say that this update was largely focused on Greece's relations with the Balkan States. Also, I should mention that the current Greek Prime Minister, Panos Kolokotronis fought against the Egyptians for 3 long years and saw firsthand the terrible devastation they inflicted on the Peloponnese. While I won't say he's bitter and resentful towards them, he does have a good memory and he is somewhat petty.

That said, Greece does indeed have diplomatic relations with Egypt and Egypt will definitely be playing a role in the Balkan League's calculations going forward. I'll elaborate more on their situation in the next chapter and their relationship with Greece.

Ah someone went for Regina Maria Pia class ironclads I see, although the republican in me dislikes the names chosen. Two notes though. First the guns of the initial armament were most likely rifled not smoothbores as cited in Wikepedia. Navypedia speaks of British made guns (4x8in Armstrong and 22 6.4 Palliser). And it makes sense, a 32 pdr would be useless against an ironclad and the ships were French built, if the guns were French made as well (though the Italians tended to prefer British) the French 6.4in used from Gloire onward was also rifled.

Second no matter what is the initial armament by the time of the war the ships will be converted to central battery ships just as the Italians had done with their vessels post Lissa with 2x9in Armstrong and 9x8in Armstrong Rifled Muzzle-loading ships each, conversion cost and time would be negligible and it would bring the ships much closer to the Osmaniyeh in firepower (2x9in & 9x8in with a 2075 pdr broadside to 1x9in & 14x8in with a 2700 pdr broadside)

I'm waiting to see what the next class of ironclads that almost certainly will be there by wartime is going to be. I'm counting a budget around 700.000 pounds, possibly more so what's going to be. That's about enough for a pair of ships like either HMS Devastation or HMS Sultan. Or 3 smaller ships like HMS Superb or HMS Audacious. I'd be personally inclined towards the first option as it gives the RHN a clear qualitative advantage over the Ottomans and Greek naval planners will be looking for that. So... Salamis and Themistocles? Themistocles and Miaoulis? We shall see.
Arguably not so much particularly after being rearmed after 1866. Now for some reason I've read it as Greece building 4 of these (we know for certain of at least 3 including Salamis)
I'll be honest, I thought they were interchangeable, so really this is a case of me being lazy, instead of doing my due diligence and looking at the info a little more logically.:coldsweat: I'll edit this to 8in and 6.4in accordingly.

These ships will certainly be modified and upgraded in the following 6 years, but really this snippet was just a look at the Hellenic Navy at a single point in time. There will definitely be bigger and stronger ironclads joining the Hellenic Navy in the not so distant future.

Woo, let's go! And congrats on 100 Chapters!

It's fun seeing the earlier proclamation of the Kingdom of Serbia, that's likely to impact the long-term prominence of the Obrenović dynasty. And we're getting the Balkan League we were denied OTL, so exciting! This is going to be a shocker of a war.

It's funny the Russians see the current circumstances with Serbia as a betrayal, given how their involvement and withdrawal from the first Serbian Uprising basically doomed it due to using the Serbs as cannon fodder, they wouldn't be involved in the Second Serbian Uprising until after the Greek War of Independence happened, and the Serbian government, though allowing its people to fight for the Russians, remained neutral in the last war. It's all about using-or-being-used with the Russians. This time however, as had been proven time and time before, the Serbs do not need them, and won't need them. The only ones those in the Balkans need are one another.
Thank you!

Russia is just being petty here. They believe that they are owed Serbia's eternal gratitude for supporting their formal independence from the Ottoman Empire. Although they certainly did help in some manner by drawing away Ottoman resources to the meat-grinder that was Silistra in 1854 and 1855; the Serbians won their independence in 1817 and negotiated the draw down in Ottoman troops over the coming years by themselves, without much, if any Russian involvement.

If Greece got even half of these lands would they become a minority within their own state? I mean unless their was a massive case of ethnic cleansing of course, though even then securing Anatolia from attacks will be a decades long painful process, specially as Russia would very much have incentive to make sure Greece has a black eye for the betrayal they feel from them.

That said I think we may see a temporary rapprochement in relations with Russia for many of the league for the simple reason, new status quo's are hard to predict let's be cautious for now.

The Ottoman empire being destroyed will change everything in the region and I suspect Britain despite it all is not going to be pleased with that, plus given how the Balkan league ended I can very much see Russia's trade relations between get messed up with the wars, tariffs and trade wars and so have at least some attempts to reconcile with Greece who was their life line not that long ago, even if it won't last.
Not really Macedonia and thrace have a large populations of greeks..and as of the Slavic population as long there orthodox they can be convinced that they're greeks.. after all in otl the thing that distinguished the greeks form the Bulgarians in Macedonia wasn't language or culture but was church they followed.
Besides earl has hinted that this war will not be a clear success for the Balkan nations
In this time period of nationalism, pretty much it was major propaganda and education campaigns that would define the future ethnic boundaries in those regions.
They'll probably be a pluralistic majority in their own state, and the ppl living in Thrace and Ionia will probably be kicked out or assimilated, which. The Aromanians probably would continue be assimilated too, as with ppl in the Greek Autocephalous Church, and the Greeks are growing in population which would make the state more Greek in general.

Ps other than Ionia the lands are mostly orthodox with the other ppl being Muslim, which probably would get pushed away (or they help the balkan nations), and many different groups within the Balkans only developed their national identity in the 19th century as the Ottomans collapsed and different ideas came to the forefront. I defo hope we'd get Albania as a protectorate of Greece with a bunch become Christian tho.
Seems to me a bit excessive when the border just reached the Olympus? At least OTL Greece, as a state, looking into Asia Minor was very late development.
So, by in large the territories that Greece claimed were majority or plurality Greek.

In the case of Macedonia the coastline is almost entirely Greek, with a few pockets of Hellenic communities further inland. Whilst they will still try to claim as much of the province as they can, they recognize the situation on the ground gets increasingly Slavic the further north they go. As such, they compromised with the Serbians and agreed to split the Ottoman Vilayet of Monstir between them, although it may not be entirely 50-50.

In the case of Constantinople, it is majority Turkish right now, but there are large minorities of Greeks and Armenians living in Constantinople. Whilst this isn't optimal for Athens, gaining the Queen of Cities is worth the headache. Its also likely that a large number of these Turkish residents would leave if the city came under Greek rule, with some leaving voluntarily and others leaving at gunpoint.

Now, regarding their claims to Anatolia, I intensionally left this vague as the Hellenic Government isn't entirely sure what they want either just yet, only that they want some piece of territory along the coast, like Smyrna given its large Greek population. Beyond that though, it is a matter for future debate.
That was a great analysis of the butterflies unleased by the timeline so far and the alt-Crimean War in particular. Sensible and plausible.

One particular point attracted my attention: greek banks providing loans to Serbia. Even if those loans are absolutely miniscule compared to the bonds floated in the major markets, it is still a major development. Developing Athens to a peripheral and minor financial center provides a major snowball effect. There is a lot of soft (and sometimes not so soft) power when it comes to the Balkan States that are still based on substistence farming, so their capital needs are quite light. If the banking sector is relatively thriving, then there are a lot of opportunities for Greek businessmen in the Ottoman Empire and Egypt who in OTL 19th century rarely had access to modern banking.
Thank you!

Greece is trying to flex its soft power might here and while it is rather meager compared to the loans being doled out by the British and French banks, the Greeks are still able to contribute a few Drachma to their Serbian friends.

Great update @Earl Marshal ! I think that the Balkan Alliance will also try to support various rebels in the European teriitorries of the Ottoman Empire. As for Egypt participating against Ottoman Empire it makes sence, we will have to wait ans see.
Oh one hundred percent. I considered mentioning Balkan League support for Rebels in this chapter alongside Egyptian involvement, but decided to wait until the next update as, it will be focusing on the situation inside the Ottoman Empire.

The Serbs had something around 125,000 rifles in 1862 in OTL. In 1866 they bought 60,000 more (27,000 Lorenz and 33,000 Belgian ones), donating 5.000 to Montenegro, to convert them to breechloaders, which the did using the Green system (NOT a good idea) and the Peabody along apparently with the Wanzl and Krnka systems for other Austrian and Russian made rifles and brand new Werndl rifles. So getting a few old Greek rifles is likely of questionable value here...
You can always toss them into the reserves, I guess.

But you know, sometimes I forget the roots of today's Zastava Arms go back to 1853, when the Topolivnica factory in Kragujevac was established. Makes me wonder whether Topolivnica will grow to the same prominence it did OTL, though the partnership it had with Mauser in the late 1870s is probably butterflied, since who knows whether the circumstances that led to that deal (Mauser facing bankruptcy and finding Serbia in need for a new standard rifle just in time to pen a deal and save itself) would repeat TTL, very sensitive.
My sources implied that the Serbians were unable to properly field their National Militia against the Ottomans in the 1876 War. Now I could have misinterpreted it as saying they couldn't equip all its troops with "modern rifles", instead of no rifles as I originally thought. Either way, I do agree its a rather weak gesture, but then again its purely meant to be a distraction to the secret treaty hidden underneath.

Either way, the Serbians will be getting better rifles soon as will the Greeks.

The Hellenic navy has never lost a battle to the Ottomans. Just saying. :p
Who said they were going to lose?:winkytongue:

Serbia is not introducing conscription properly? 6-7 years by the way is interesting timing... the Prussian model, and the Greeks will be copying some version of it like Piedmont since at the moment it's the only game in town, unless Niels got his way with Napoleon II ahead of 1869 when he would have had with Napoleon III was calling for 7 classes of conscripts in the field army...
Briefly checking online, according to the Serbian military itself, in August 1861, a Law on the National Militia was passed, making all able-bodied men between the ages of 20 and 50 liable for military service. There's even a PDF version of the 1864 version of the law available on the government's own website, under 'Zakon o ustrojstvu vojske od 20. marta 1864. godine'. It wouldn't be until 1883 when we would see the Law on the Organization of the Standing Army, and have Serbia fall in line with most European armies, in part thanks to the presence of Hippolyte Mondain, but there was some form of conscription already.
Basically parroting what Damian said, the Serbian Government implemented conscription in 1861 in OTL. I see no reason to change it here given the limited butterflies in Serbia so far. Greece will definitely begin implementing a conscription system similar to Prussia's as it is the best hands down and everyone knows it.

For the Serbs, Montenegro is a brother Serb state with many if not most hoping at eventual union...
That all depends on the terms on which such a union would occur. While I haven't checked to see whether this would be the case, there's always the chance that Danilo Petrović-Njegoš and the Montenegrin court have no interest in unification if it doesn't involve himself as King, which you could imagine could butt heads with Mihailo Obrenović... assuming a deal isn't reached to have the two dynasties come together, ala the OTL marriage of Mirko Dimitri Petrović-Njegoš with Natalija Konstantinović (which could've led to the former becoming king of Serbia had the May Coup not happened).
Oh its certainly possible that Serbia and Montenegro unite at some point in the future, but I doubt Prince Danilo and his supporters will push that hard for it expecially if they aren't in charge.

There was? Romania certainly DID get its sights on Greek Vlachs in OTL but from memory that was later in the 19th century.
My opinion would be that the earlier "independence" of the Wallachia and Moldavia allowed Bucharest to assert itself over the Aromanians earlier, leading to this conflict with Greece.

Now that's funny. Because if Russia is hostile to the League and prefers the Ottomans as a satellite not unlike 1833... that's affecting the calculation for Britain and France. Not unlike the first Balkan war I would add...
It does make for an interesting situation where both Britain and Russia are propping up the Ottoman Empire, albeit for different reasons.

An interesting update, and the conclusion that can be drawn from it is that the war will rely on 2 things: The strength of a Bulgarian uprising, and the fate of the aegean. With good preparation and intense military funding, the balkan alliance can make a credible threat to the European half of the Empire, but if they plan to get very far they will need a substantial Bulgarian uprising behind the front lines- enough to tie down tens of thousands of troops and disrupt supplies for the rest. A significant Bulgarian presence seems like the most likely stumbling block over the whole affair. Even if the Albanians are equally reticent, they don't have the force to be as disruptive as the Bulgars.

The most important engagements of the war, even if they look indecisive, will be the naval ones. With several more years to go between the treaty and wars start, I am very curious how the final fleets look.
I'll cover the partisan activity in more detail in the next chapter, but suffice to say, there will be rebels galore and this will cause issues for the Ottomans.

I actually have an entire chapter dedicated to the development of the Hellenic Navy and it will cover their leadership, organization, recent expansion and modernization, as well as their battle plans in the conflict to come.
 
Top