Pride Goes Before a Fall: A Revolutionary Greece Timeline

[Lascaris]

A potential to consider: regardless of the outcome of this war, whichever Sultan of the Porte signed off on this treaty is going to become incredibly unpopular for it among patriotic and nationalist circles. Then factor in the Great Eurasian War, and the fact that even if the Ottomans avoid being stomped by the Russians (and perhaps Persians), this will have been a devastating and extremely ill-advised conflict. Through both of these, I see Ottoman faith in the U.K. being very strongly shaken - the Brits pressured the Porte into giving into them and starting this war with Russia, then backed Greece's demands for massive concessions of irredenta in exchange for peace.

Could this be an opening for a palace coup and the installation of a new sultan? If that were the case, then who is to say that the Porte would continue to uphold the Treaty of Constantinople? The author did mention that Thessaloniki would be Greek sooner than one would expect, and a revanchist conflict before the Porte was recovered from the GEW would be a good opportunity for this to happen.

Abdul Mejid I died in 1861 anyway. That said Greece here got from the Ottomans what it had been promised in OTL 1878 Russo-Turkish war for its neutrality plus the Dodecanese, while being n a relatively much stronger position. What happens post that? It's not difficult to bet on Bosnian and Bulgarian revolts no later than the OTL 1876 and perhaps earlier. And if these are treated by the Ottomans in their customary fashion it means anything from a Balkan war, to another Russian war, only with the British public against their government joining on the Ottoman side. Then you have such complcations like Hungary, an unknown factor I'd say, Egypt more likely than not eying all of Syria and more while allied to France, the Italian confederation, a likely Greek ally TTL and Armenian nationalism growing far faster than OTL...

Side note Greece and Serbia officially allied in 1866 in OTL even if it went to nowhere. Of Serbia we have heard nothing about so far, besides keeping out of the fray but if they are to remain neutral in the longer term they have to be given something... like full independence and Turkish troops being removed from Serbia. In turn if full independence is achieved under Alexander he's likely not overthrown and we have the Karageorges as the Serb dynasty without interruptions...

 

[Dragon11926]

Does the Church of Greece have authority in the new territories?

 

[Damian0358]

Side note Greece and Serbia officially allied in 1866 in OTL even if it went to nowhere. Of Serbia we have heard nothing about so far, besides keeping out of the fray but if they are to remain neutral in the longer term they have to be given something... like full independence and Turkish troops being removed from Serbia. In turn if full independence is achieved under Alexander he's likely not overthrown and we have the Karageorges as the Serb dynasty without interruptions...

This is ignoring the fact that Aleksandar wasn't actually all that liked, the masses being dissatisfied with him, and that the government was always in a tug of war with him, not to mention the issues with Toma Vučić Perišić, the rise of the liberals, and the ever-present pro-Obrenović movement. If circumstances repeat akin to OTL, the 1858 Saint Andrew's Day Assembly will probably happen, with Aleksandar's abdication.

Honestly, the more interesting developments would be after Miloš Obrenović's return, and the succession of his son, Mihailo. While something like the 1862 Čukur Fountain incident might not repeat, there's likely going to be a point from 1860 onwards that may or may not force the Sultan to hand over Belgrade, Smederevo, Šabac, Kladavo, Užice and Soko Grad, and thus withdrawing the garrisons in those cities. And during/at that point, Mihailo would probably feel more confident in beginning plans to forge the First Balkan Alliance. And if he avoids assassination TTL, that alliance might even hold and not collapse as per OTL. And since Austria isn't as relevant a player, we won't be see the mass shift towards them in foreign politics as we saw with Serbia under Milan I OTL (which resulted in the Secret Convention of 1881, and Serbian alliance with Austria, basically making the state a vassal state and a member of the Triple Alliance, whilst Austria supported the Obrenović dynasty, recognized Milan as king, and acknowledged Serbia's southward claims, though Serbia couldn't do anything inimical to their interests, which included Bosnia, Herzegovina and Novi Pazar, and all foreign treaties needed their approval), though Mihailo would probably face more assasination attempts like Milan did OTL if he ended up surviving TTL.

Honestly, just having Mihailo survive TTL is a big boon for Greece, since once everything lines up diplomatically for Serbia, they'd be all up for beating the Ottomans up. And in their plans for the First Balkan Alliance, Ilija Garašanin believed the Albanians would be the biggest obstacle, so he tried to establish cooperation with Albanian leaders, and even believed they should receive an independent state encompassing territories between the Drin and Aoös rivers (and oh look, that latter border lines up near perfectly for Greece). Considering all the previous discussion had regarding Greece and Albanians, I'm sure these details would be good to consider.

 

[A_simple_pilgrim]

Reading the above posts, I sat back and thought about the circumstances in which a war between Greece and the Ottomans could break out.

First of all, yes, the main deterrent against a Turkish declaration of war upon Greece are the guarantees from the treaty which granted Greece independence. Technically the UK, France, and Russia are obligated to support Greece in a defensive war. However, I don't think it would be impossible for all 3 to be otherwise occupied or not inclined to support the Greeks.

Let me conjure a scenario for you. The year is around 1870. There is a war between the French and the germans. Both are quite occupied. The Russians and British are skirmishing in Central Asia. The poles are acting up with the germans distracted. Trouble brews in the Far East. The British are keeping an eye on all the fires burning across the globe. If in such a situation, Cyprus rises up in revolt, and receive some "unofficial" support from the Greeks, then the Turks can claim that the greeks broke the treaty of Constantinople 1855, and thus have a causus belli.

They declare war, and I wouldn't be surprised if the Great Powers are too busy to intervene. It would simply be Greece vs Ottoman Empire.

(besides the revolts from the Albanians, Bulgarians, serbs, Armenians, Arabs, and whatever the Egyptians decide to do)

 

[Duke of Orlando]

Reading the above posts, I sat back and thought about the circumstances in which a war between Greece and the Ottomans could break out.

First of all, yes, the main deterrent against a Turkish declaration of war upon Greece are the guarantees from the treaty which granted Greece independence. Technically the UK, France, and Russia are obligated to support Greece in a defensive war. However, I don't think it would be impossible for all 3 to be otherwise occupied or not inclined to support the Greeks.

Let me conjure a scenario for you. The year is around 1870. There is a war between the French and the germans. Both are quite occupied. The Russians and British are skirmishing in Central Asia. The poles are acting up with the germans distracted. Trouble brews in the Far East. The British are keeping an eye on all the fires burning across the globe. If in such a situation, Cyprus rises up in revolt, and receive some "unofficial" support from the Greeks, then the Turks can claim that the greeks broke the treaty of Constantinople 1855, and thus have a causus belli.

They declare war, and I wouldn't be surprised if the Great Powers are too busy to intervene. It would simply be Greece vs Ottoman Empire.

(besides the revolts from the Albanians, Bulgarians, serbs, Armenians, Arabs, and whatever the Egyptians decide to do)

Reading this, it’s strikes me the the Greeks and Egyptians are natural allies in this world despite the bad blood they have had in the past. They both are scared by the a Ottomans, they both have land that they see as essential parts of their nation held by the ottomans, and absolutely none of this land overlaps (which you can hardly say about any of the countries/peoples of the Balkans.) I don’t know if they’ll ally anytime soon but they should. That would be an alliance with little reason to break and would terrify the Ottomans for fears of being sandwiched between the two of them and possibly Russia as well.

 

[cmakk1012]

and absolutely none of this land overlaps

Are you absolutely sure about that?

 

[Ganishka]

Are you absolutely sure about that?

kkkk I was thinking about Cyprus.

I'm sure the Greeks made protests following the expelling but were at the core happy about the population surplus.

 

[Bloodmage]

Are you absolutely sure about that?

Actually thinking about it now,given the increased prosperity and economic prospects that Greece has.

I wonder how much the Egyptiotes will offer to greece with their work after all a good deal of the national buildings were made after they financed them(averof,benakis etc)

 

[Hertog Jann]

Are you absolutely sure about that?

The nature of the greek community in Egypt - a mercantile community in a major state, precludes any crazy nationalistic feelings. The Greek merchants and bankers desire a strong and prosperous Egypt as their fortunes are tied with it. As long as there is no 1950s-style arabic nationalism, the Greeks would be most loyal subjects. Moreover, this new Egypt has more business opportunities to offer by controlling the holy cities of the abrahamic religions. How long till you see a greek steamship company ferrying pilgrims to Jeddah? How long till modern hotels open in Jerusalem along with a railroad to Levant ports?

 

[Bloodmage]

The nature of the greek community in Egypt - a mercantile community in a major state, precludes any crazy nationalistic feelings. The Greek merchants and bankers desire a strong and prosperous Egypt as their fortunes are tied with it

I would say that while the Egyptiotes are tied to Egypt in terms of their fortunes that is not wholly the case thougth given the mercantile aspect of their community a lot of Egyptiotes will already have made investments in greece and as such be less tied to Aegyptus and while Aegyptus is a trade hub, given the position that Greece has being the Gateway to the Black Sea and being a Major hub for ships that are coming from the Suez canal the Egyptiotes can and will be independent if they have the time to develop their businesses in greece(which they most probably have already)

Of course a major source of their income will probably disappear if they are expelled or Egypt tries to develop its own native merchant class,but given the connections that greek merchants have with each other they will endure

Now given that the Egyptiotes are Greeks and in Otl made many contributions to the greek state both greece and Egypt can benefit from this arrangement(after all they were the major merchants of Egypt during this period)

Does the Church of Greece have authority in the new territories?

The new lands in otl while they were part of the Ecoumenical Patriarchs jurisdiction spiritually,practically they are governed by the church of greece

the old land/new lands surfaced after the balkan wars and in otl when Heptanesa and Thessaly were united with greece they came under the jurisdiction of the church of greece as such all the territories that greece gained during the GEW(Thessaly,Epirus and The Dodecanese) are under the jurisdiction of the church of Hellas

 

[Duke of Orlando]

kkkk I was thinking about Cyprus.

I'm sure the Greeks made protests following the expelling but were at the core happy about the population surplus.

Ive always thought of Cyprus as more of a“oh that’s would be cool to have as well” and less of a “this is an essential piece of our nation” when it comes to Egypt. I could very well be wrong about that though, Egypt during this time is not one of my strong spots when it comes to historical knowledge.

As far as Greek Egyptians go though, while I’m sure a few die hard nationalists want Alexandria to be in Greek hands, the Greek government and the Greek Egyptians don’t have a ton of desire to make that a reality at the moment. Perhaps at another point later down the line (if something like Greek Cyrenaica exists I could see the idea becoming more mainstream) but not now.

 

[Ganishka]

As far as Greek Egyptians go though, while I’m sure a few die hard nationalists want Alexandria to be in Greek hands

That's like a British nationalist wanting New York.

 

[Duke of Orlando]

That's like a British nationalist wanting New York.

Absolutely like I said not at all reasonable in my opinion. And not something I ever expect to happen. But when has logic ever stopped hyper nationalist from having crazy beliefs.

 

[JanSmuts321]

Absolutely like I said not at all reasonable in my opinion. And not something I ever expect to happen. But when has logic ever stopped hyper nationalist from having crazy beliefs.

There is actually a really cool map someone made of what a modern Greek Alexandria could look like(completely unrealistic but pretty interesting)

https://www.reddit.com/r/imaginarymaps/comments/goh9wd

 

[Ganishka]

Absolutely like I said not at all reasonable in my opinion. And not something I ever expect to happen. But when has logic ever stopped hyper nationalist from having crazy beliefs.

I was going to say this is below an unreasonable opinion cuz no British nationalist would think about retaking New York but then I remembered that Cecil Rhodes hoped that the US would eventually be reincorporated by the British Empire.

 

[JanSmuts321]

I was going to say this is below an unreasonable opinion cuz no British nationalist would think about retaking New York but then I remembered that Cecil Rhodes hoped that the US would eventually be reincorporated by the British Empire.

Cecil Rhodes is like the final boss of British Nationalism tho, man could see a different planet and felt it was rightfully British(and he did, he said he'd colonize Mars if he could)

 

[Duke of Orlando]

There is actually a really cool map someone made of what a modern Greek Alexandria could look like(completely unrealistic but pretty interesting)

https://www.reddit.com/r/imaginarymaps/comments/goh9wd

It’s an incredibly beautiful map you’re right. I can imagine a world where Egypt is on the wrong side of a WWI analog where maybe this could happen but it would be even more tenuous and temporary than even the gains from Sevres were. Still really nice map.

 

[thekingsguard]

Kind of fun to think of Greek Alexandria... a haven for the coptics, maybe rebuilding the Pharos.

 

[Berat2beti]

I don’t see the Persian declaration of War as too much of an issue it’s a power weaker than the Ottomans, and they only declared war on Britain. So it can be one of those moments where even though Persia and Russia could be allies the Persians were looking at Great Britain as the greater threat and we’re using the distraction of the Russian war to nab historical land in Afghanistan and possibly threaten India. And while Russia would definitely want Persia to invade Baghdad I think that’s not what Persia’s realistically after.

After all Russia’s showing in the war hasn’t been spectacular, even the reversal in the Caucasus’s could be described as the Russians by the skin of their teeth holding on and than cruelly marching their army into Eastern Anatolia just to die for no reason in the winter, and the European front the more “prestigious” theatre wasn’t great either. Never mind the Chechen, Azari and other Islamic tribes that are being oppressed by Russia, and Russian designs on Persian territory in the Caucasus only 20 something years ago...

Yah no Persia’s goal is definitely Herat that’s 100% what their aiming to have, if they can nab more land from Afghanistan while Britain’s busy with Russia even better. Of course the British Raj(or is it still East Indian Trading Company?) has a military to respond back with, so Persia might have miscalculated their chances.

 

[Lascaris]

I don’t see the Persian declaration of War as too much of an issue it’s a power weaker than the Ottomans, and they only declared war on Britain. So it can be one of those moments where even though Persia and Russia could be allies the Persians were looking at Great Britain as the greater threat and we’re using the distraction of the Russian war to nab historical land in Afghanistan and possibly threaten India. And while Russia would definitely want Persia to invade Baghdad I think that’s not what Persia’s realistically after.

After all Russia’s showing in the war hasn’t been spectacular, even the reversal in the Caucasus’s could be described as the Russians by the skin of their teeth holding on and than cruelly marching their army into Eastern Anatolia just to die for no reason in the winter, and the European front the more “prestigious” theatre wasn’t great either. Never mind the Chechen, Azari and other Islamic tribes that are being oppressed by Russia, and Russian designs on Persian territory in the Caucasus only 20 something years ago...

Yah no Persia’s goal is definitely Herat that’s 100% what their aiming to have, if they can nab more land from Afghanistan while Britain’s busy with Russia even better. Of course the British Raj(or is it still East Indian Trading Company?) has a military to respond back with, so Persia might have miscalculated their chances.

The Raj has a military yes About 350,000 men IMS, 300,000 of these Indian. Which now has a direct war in its hands which means the general service act to make sepoy battalions operate overseas needs to come a couple of years early and had Enfield rifles just introduced to it. The grease used in the cartridges contains beef tallow and pig lard. Every Muslim soldier using them goes to hell and every Hindu using them gets defiled.

What am I leading to? In OTL the Indian Mutiny happened in 1857 conveniently right after the Crimean war was over and the British army had large numbers of Crimea veterans around. There is every chance TTL that it breaks out in 1854-55 during the Eurasian war. If it does its going to have massive consequences, it effectively throws Britain out of the war as they'll nd to concentrate in India above all else, while starting off worse.