Pride Goes Before a Fall: A Revolutionary Greece Timeline

[Gian]

All I can say is that if at first you don't succeed, try try again. If the Dutch failed to get the rest of the Southern Provinces, they can still get it during the Franco-Prussian War (same thing with Spain vis-a-vis Rousillon and the Northern Basque Country and Italy with Savoy, Nice, and Corsica)

 

[galileo-034]

The French for their part would initially receive little recompense for their great suffering in the war, aside from some mild reparations and access to Dutch and Prussian markets. However, in the May Referendum on Belgian Independence, all five provinces of the much reduced Kingdom of Belgium voted to join with France, with the exception of northern Belgian Brabant, which voted to join the Netherlands.

Well, that is more here than some territorial expansion. I recall that Wallonia had one of the most productive mining industry in Europe, and with its coalfields, and possibly iron (https://sites.google.com/site/paleocoralslg/recherches/geolreg/mines), France would be more than a worthy competitor to British production, especially as it has not lost at this point the mines of Lorraine and their massive iron deposits to Prussia.

 

[Earl Marshal]

@Earl Marshal

While I think most of the update is laudable, you should take a look at these articles. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Province_of_Brabant https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Francization_of_Brussels

Brabant, and certainly Brussel would likely vote to remain Dutch. It was primarily dutch speaking until the 20th century. Only the southern part is majority french-speaking. Hence, a split of the land to conform to the language border would be more likely.

I am well aware that Brussels and by association Belgian Brabant were predominantly Flemish in OTL around this time and are more than likely Flemish ITTL as well before the war. However, I do have a few reasons for my decision to give them to France.

1. First and foremost, most of the fighting in the Belgian War took place in and around Brabant, specifically the Flemish inhabited regions of Brabant, resulting in a high number of refugees fleeing the region. While many of these refugees would return home after the war, not all did as some were killed in the fighting, some remained in the Netherlands, some remained imprisoned by the Walloons and French, and some simply disappeared. I don't have exact numbers prepared but it would probably be in the few thousands, not enough to completely swing the demographics of Brabant in France's favor, but it would lessen the disparity between the 62% Fleming - 38% Walloon rate in the 1846 census in OTL.

2. It's also important to note that the social and political elites in the rump Belgian State are predominantly Walloons or French and not Flemish or Dutch. They control the press and they control the government, and given their past history of oppressing the Flemings, it is likely they will work to suppress the Fleming vote through whatever means possible in the run up to the referendum. It's also highly likely that the vote itself was rigged in France's favor, through voter intimidation, ballot stuffing, etc.

I'll edit the update and the map to make the border in Belgian Brabant a little further to the south, but I probably won't change it too much. I'll also include some allusions to nefarious activity in the referendum on the part of the Walloons and French as well.

Will the dutch speaking part of Brabant voting to join Netherlands lead to some sort of crisis?

I don't see why it would. The region was predominantly Fleming before the war and remained so after the war. The Walloons and French also had a history of oppressing the Flemings so no one would really bat an eye at them voting to join the Netherlands.

 

[DracoLazarus]

All I can say is that if at first you don't succeed, try try again. If the Dutch failed to get the rest of the Southern Provinces, they can still get it during the Franco-Prussian War (same thing with Spain vis-a-vis Rousillon and the Northern Basque Country and Italy with Savoy, Nice, and Corsica)

IF there is a Franco-Prussian war.

 

[emperor joe]

I wonder if the austrian empire collapses sooner than otl who will fill the power vacuum in the balkans,it won't be the ottomans that's for sure and any slav attempt to unite the western balkans will be hindered by the western powers fearing an expansion of russia's influence in the region

 

[AnonymousSauce]

I wonder if the austrian empire collapses sooner than otl who will fill the power vacuum in the balkans,it won't be the ottomans that's for sure and any slav attempt to unite the western balkans will be hindered by the western powers fearing an expantion of russia's influence in the region

Greece! This IS a Greek timeline, after all... ; -)

 

[Unknown]

Wonder who gets the Congo in TTL...

I kinda suspected that we weren't done with Napoleon II; wonder if he'll be better than Napoleon III was...

 

[cmakk1012]

Greece! This IS a Greek timeline, after all... ; -)

A Greek-led customs union or military alliance would be fantastic. I hope they wouldn’t try and annex much land, though!

 

[RyuDrago]

I wonder if the austrian empire collapses sooner than otl who will fill the power vacuum in the balkans,it won't be the ottomans that's for sure and any slav attempt to unite the western balkans will be hindered by the western powers fearing an expantion of russia's influence in the region

I am more interested to see which kind of Italy will rise TTL. Hopefully one to be friendly to Greece - a Mediterranean axis between them may be profitable for both countries. Especially against the Ottomans...

 

[emperor joe]

Per

I am more interested to see which kind of Italy will rise TTL. Hopefully one to be friendly to Greece - a Mediterranean axis between them may be profitable for both countries. Especially against the Ottomans...

Maybe we shall see an italy with the support of the great powers dominate the catholic lands(croatia) and a russian backed serbia with the musilms acting as a buffer
But i would like to see some una faccia,una razza

 

[RyuDrago]

Per

Maybe we shall see an italy with the support of the great powers dominate the catholic lands(croatia) and a russian backed serbia with the musilms acting as a buffer
But i would like to see some una faccia,una razza

Well, maybe if France and Britain don't want a Russian penetration till the doors of Wien... We need to see what would happen in Germany. Prussia looks in dire strait, but can claim a (pyrrich) victory with Luxembourg. But also France was winning and yet the Orleans felt anyway... I mean in the end could be still Prussia the one which may fall and not Austria. But when we think of 1848, the major suspect would be still the Hapsburg Empire...

 

[Nagisaki]

I have to ask... what is so important about Brussels and Brabant that the French were willing to literally commit voter fraud to control it? It's not at any strategic location for defense like Nice and Savoy, nor is it a very rich port city (again, like Nice), and doesn't have any natural resources I'm aware of. France only control Brussels once, during the Revolutionary and Napoleonic period. So what is it about that damned city that makes it so valuable compared to, say, Namur (capital of Wallonia), especially when it's on the periphery of French interests?

 

[cmakk1012]

I have to ask... what is so important about Brussels and Brabant that the French were willing to literally commit voter fraud to control it? It's not at any strategic location for defense like Nice and Savoy, nor is it a very rich port city (again, like Nice), and doesn't have any natural resources I'm aware of. France only control Brussels once, during the Revolutionary and Napoleonic period. So what is it about that damned city that makes it so valuable compared to, say, Namur (capital of Wallonia), especially when it's on the periphery of French interests?

I got the implication that it was the local French elite with a long history of repressing the Flemish people mostly committing the voter fraud. In other words they were just continuing what they usually did in order to further their own interests.

 

[Wolttaire]

I have to ask too

I am well aware that Brussels and by association Belgian Brabant were predominantly Flemish in OTL around this time and are more than likely Flemish ITTL as well before the war. However, I do have a few reasons for my decision to give them to France.

1. First and foremost, most of the fighting in the Belgian War took place in and around Brabant, specifically the Flemish inhabited regions of Brabant, resulting in a high number of refugees fleeing the region. While many of these refugees would return home after the war, not all did as some were killed in the fighting, some remained in the Netherlands, some remained imprisoned by the Walloons and French, and some simply disappeared. I don't have exact numbers prepared but it would probably be in the few thousands, not enough to completely swing the demographics of Brabant in France's favor, but it would lessen the disparity between the 62% Fleming - 38% Walloon rate in the 1846 census in OTL.

2. It's also important to note that the social and political elites in the rump Belgian State are predominantly Walloons or French and not Flemish or Dutch. They control the press and they control the government, and given their past history of oppressing the Flemings, it is likely they will work to suppress the Fleming vote through whatever means possible in the run up to the referendum. It's also highly likely that the vote itself was rigged in France's favor, through voter intimidation, ballot stuffing, etc.

I'll edit the update and the map to make the border in Belgian Brabant a little further to the south, but I probably won't change it too much. I'll also include some allusions to nefarious activity in the referendum on the part of the Walloons and French as well.


I don't see why it would. The region was predominantly Fleming before the war and remained so after the war. The Walloons and French also had a history of oppressing the Flemings so no one would really bat an eye at them voting to join the Netherlands.

1 the French did that across the whole of the war front they did that everywhere so why wouldn’t then we see more areas joining too and the refuges thing that truebin bassicilly every war and I don’t think it would be enough
2 that true across the entire country and why would the a pet of there countries that it not very important and does not want to be apart of there country?

 

[Rheinbund]

I have to ask... what is so important about Brussels and Brabant that the French were willing to literally commit voter fraud to control it? It's not at any strategic location for defense like Nice and Savoy, nor is it a very rich port city (again, like Nice), and doesn't have any natural resources I'm aware of. France only control Brussels once, during the Revolutionary and Napoleonic period. So what is it about that damned city that makes it so valuable compared to, say, Namur (capital of Wallonia), especially when it's on the periphery of French interests?

IMO France would want Brussel for many reasons

First, it was the former capital of the Belgium Kingdom and control it mean more prestige, they took a former capital of kingdom and it also symbolic by being the capital of the kingdom by saying it and take it it would mean that the kingdom joined the country and that Flemish made secessions and not the opposite.

Secondly, Brussel is a strategic place because all the former infrastructure in the kingdom was built with the perspective of Brussels as capital by controlling it you have access to a lot of infrastructure for a next war

Thirdly Bruxelles was saved by the French at least in their propaganda, so it would be logical that they kept the city in term of militarist point of view, they control it by retroceding this to the Dutch it would imply a failure in terms of diplomacy a submission.

Fourthly, Brussel controlled by the enemies would mean a huge city heavily fortified that would make a conquest in the Netherland more difficult in terms of war or here it would be the opposite it would make a aggression of the Dutch more difficult.

Fifthly, more territories are always welcome, and Bruxelles was always an important city the Princely Capital of the prosperous Burgundian Netherlands, by controlling it you avoid that this symbol falls in the Netherlands hands. Brussel was also taken by France but ceded to Austria in a treaty of peace so you could find a way to retake lost land (especially with the theory of Natural border Bruxelles should be French (French culture (at least in the upper class) according to many French nationalists)

Sixthly It was also a work of local elite so maybe french followed the movement or genuinely believed that Bruxelles wanted to be french, and that they need to rigged the elections in the neighbour territories to avoid an exclave that would impact negatively the city.

You could find a lot of reasons

 

[Earl Marshal]

I have to ask too

1 the French did that across the whole of the war front they did that everywhere so why wouldn’t then we see more areas joining too and the refuges thing that truebin bassicilly every war and I don’t think it would be enough
2 that true across the entire country and why would the a pet of there countries that it not very important and does not want to be apart of there country?

The final border between the Netherlands and France, more or less represents the situation on the ground in late January 1849 just prior to the signing of the peace treaty; France controlled most of Wallonia and the Netherlands and Prussia controlled most of Flanders. Brabant was a little different as it was in flux throughout much of the war, resulting in a disproportionate amount of fighting taking place in the area compared to the rest of Belgium. While there were some Walloons who fled the fighting, most refugees were Flemings as they made up the majority of the population in Brabant. Ultimately, when the war ended, the Flemings who had fled the fighting were allowed to return to North Brabant as it was controlled by the Dutch army, while they were generally barred from returning to Brussels and South Brabant as they were controlled by the French, and by proxy the Walloons who had a vested interest in suppressing the Fleming vote in the referendum.

 

[Knightmare]

IMO France would want Brussel for many reasons

First, it was the former capital of the Belgium Kingdom and control it mean more prestige, they took a former capital of kingdom and it also symbolic by being the capital of the kingdom by saying it and take it it would mean that the kingdom joined the country and that Flemish made secessions and not the opposite.

Secondly, Brussel is a strategic place because all the former infrastructure in the kingdom was built with the perspective of Brussels as capital by controlling it you have access to a lot of infrastructure for a next war

Thirdly Bruxelles was saved by the French at least in their propaganda, so it would be logical that they kept the city in term of militarist point of view, they control it by retroceding this to the Dutch it would imply a failure in terms of diplomacy a submission.

Fourthly, Brussel controlled by the enemies would mean a huge city heavily fortified that would make a conquest in the Netherland more difficult in terms of war or here it would be the opposite it would make a aggression of the Dutch more difficult.

Fifthly, more territories are always welcome, and Bruxelles was always an important city the Princely Capital of the prosperous Burgundian Netherlands, by controlling it you avoid that this symbol falls in the Netherlands hands. Brussel was also taken by France but ceded to Austria in a treaty of peace so you could find a way to retake lost land (especially with the theory of Natural border Bruxelles should be French (French culture (at least in the upper class) according to many French nationalists)

Sixthly It was also a work of local elite so maybe french followed the movement or genuinely believed that Bruxelles wanted to be french, and that they need to rigged the elections in the neighbour territories to avoid an exclave that would impact negatively the city.

You could find a lot of reasons

Plus, after a very expensive war, they do kinda need to bring in some loot, less they get a haircut from the National Razor.

 

[BootOnFace]

This is officially a Napoleonic timeline.


Vive L'Empereur!

 

[Wolttaire]

This is officially a Napoleonic timeline.


Vive L'Empereur!

It always goes back to Napoleon....

 

[Earl Marshal]

This is officially a Napoleonic timeline.


Vive L'Empereur!

It always goes back to Napoleon....

I wouldn't say that exactly. Although the House of Bonaparte will have an important part to play in the months and years ahead ITTL, the main focus of the timeline is still Greece.