Pride Goes Before a Fall: A Revolutionary Greece Timeline

[X Oristos]

Now why was the Ottoman navy underpreforming to such an extend? That's an interesting question to which I have seen no proper answer but let me note the Ottomans between 1770 and 1854 lost the better part of their navy with heavy loss of life not one but... four times, roughly once every generation. This can't have had good effects on retaining institutional knowledge within the fleet. Couple that with lack of a large merchant marine to draw upon and where was the Ottoman Navy getting its crews for the large numbers of battleships the sultan was so obligingly buying? If I understand correctly conscription and conscription done indiscriminately, in 1914 the crews sent to Britain to take delivery of the new super-dreadnoughts building for the navy supposedly included shepherds conscripted into the navy of all things. This can't have helped all that much, if anything it looks to me as a vicious cycle one Abdul Hamid managed to make even worse, come 1897 Von Der Goltz was reporting back to Berlin that it took crews two hours to load a gun and the fleet during the war couldn't even sail out of the Dardanelles...

I had not thought of the loss of institutional knowledge as an explanation of ottoman naval underperfomance. That makes perfect sense.

Indeed, conscripting people that had absolutely no experience with the sea, is a recipe for disaster. To quote the phd thesis of Dilara Dal:

Accordingly, the main problem with naval recruitment was indicated as the process of the same regulation for both the army and the navy. Although sanjaks were located on the Anatolian coasts of the Black Sea and the shores of the Marmara Sea, in actual fact most of the conscription zones allocated for the Ottoman navy consisted of inland districts and a small number of coastal towns, which made up only about one-third of the total number of all districts. This led to endemic recruitment problems.

For the Naval Reforms Commission, the draft age specified from 19 to 25 in the conscription law was not applicable to the navy. Most of the recruits, who were randomly selected by lots, were not familiar with seafaring and their ages were relatively old to be trained for maritime applications, which prevented them from performing their active service in an effective manner. In Hobart Pasha’s opinion, these recruits, who made their living mostly from agriculture and farming, had intense concentration problems due to the stress generated from the challenging nature of naval service, and also homesickness.

Because there’s still several areas in southern Albania with an indeterminate religious majority or an outright orthodox majority the Greek government could easily be interested in taking regardless of their desire for an Albanian puppet. They could reasonably even go as north as Vlorë and take it to both weaken the Albanians by taking their last major port and strengthen themselves. That would likely end any hope of a productive partnership between the Albanians and Greeks though. There’s a big difference between an exploited puppet and a junior partner, and taking one of their last cultural centers and ports definitely says you’re a puppet. Greece could reasonably go either way though. We discussed the relationship between the two groups several times at this point, and there’s definitely bad blood between the groups. Which

There is one thing with the orthodox population around Valona: it is only recently became sedentary. In the 19th century they would have been Vlach semi-nomads that would move around with their flocks. The lowlands of Valona were their winter pastures. Now there is a border at the Aoos/Vjosa valley. When it comes to the pastoralists all bets are off. They might migrate to Epirus if they have better opportunities. Or they might find the greek agricultural policy oppressive and change their routes.

The other thing with greek enroachment in Albania is that these lands do not constitute a core irredentist territory and they come along with heavy diplomatic baggage. Greek control of Valona would envoke italian hostility. Even Britain wouldn't be very enthusiastic of Greece controlling Valona. What would make better sense from an Athens POV, would be to make concessions in Albania and specifically Valona, to receive italian/british support for a core target.

 

[Quinkana]

Greece has already Crete and the rest of the Southern island

yeah that's true whoops.

I know there is some hurt feeling in the Sublime Porte against the English for their previous failure against the Russians but still this new endeavor could patch things up. There is no reason to let the Ottomans be a Russian puppet as the Russians see them and while after this war the diplomatic filed will be shifted I don't see why the Great Powers would let the Balkan nations destroy the Ottomans.

Thing is both Serbia and Greece are Britain's allies, and Britain won't fight the Greeks because it'd hurt its own economic interests there too and lose them to the Russians, which is something Britain will not do. The fact that the Ottoman's starting hand is worse and that the Ottomans just fought the disastrous Crimean war would mean that the Ottomans' army would still need time to rebuild as the Russians broke their backs.

 

[Damian0358]

Both of these point make sense but also contradict each other a bit. To my knowledge There’s really only two ports worth the name in northern Albania. Bar and Shengjin. Bar is almost certainly going to be Montenegrin as Ulcinj is further south along the coast. Which leaves Shëngjin for Serbia. There’s a slight problem with this though as it’s traditionally always been the Adriatic port for goods coming and going to Scutari, a city promised to Montenegro already. So it’s fate is a bit up in the air. And it’s a pretty small port anyway. So Serbia might be thinking bigger. The only major port in “Northern” Albania, and honestly the next port I know of if you’re going down the coast, is Durrës. And that’s a deep cut into Albanian territory. It basically removes all of the Catholic Albanian areas if you were to draw a straight line between the city of Durrës and the nearest Serbian border. It also removes several of the other major towns and villages. If you draw something more sensible than a strait line to Serbia but still leave out Tirana you take even more. It’s essentially half of Albania. Which is perfect if you want a puppet rump Albania.

Assuming a rump Albania is left, and isn't tied to Greece, the original pitched plan for a border was between the Drin and the Aoös, so with the loss of Ulcinj to the Montenegrin and with it the loss of the original preferred port per earlier Serbian plans, that does leave Shëngjin as the most appropriate option (would they call it Šenđin, Sveti Jovan [Medovski] or Medovo?). However, part of the reason why they wanted a port in the first place was so they would free their foreign trade from the hands of OTL the Austrians, and TTL that includes the Hungarians too; but I imagine the wishes for a port would be neutered somewhat if Serbia manages to obtain and maintain a land border with Montenegro, something the Austrians OTL tried to stop from happening a lot, since Montenegro would likely happily allow Serbia to trade through them (ignoring the possibility of Montenegro using it as leverage against them because why would they do that).

So, it is just as likely that, assuming a rump Albania is left in place and given how the war will have 'exact' borders decided on the ground, that half of Northern Albania north of the Drin will end up in Montenegrin control, including Shëngjin, and Serbia and Montenegro just sign a trade agreement, pragmatically concluding that they had achieved their aspirations of getting access to an Adriatic port. They could probably also use that to adjust the Serbian-Montenegrin border too, so perhaps rather than the OTL 1913 border between the two, Serbia ends up getting a bit more in Sandžak and especially Metochia/Kosovo, perhaps ala OTL current borders.

Of course, we do have OTL to look towards as to what a Serbia that pushes deeper into Albania looks like, with Drač County during the First Balkan War, but with Garašanin around, it's almost certainly likely that there will be efforts to establish cooperation with Albanian leaders, especially since in his opinion he believed it better to create an independent Albanian state.

 

[goumaister]

Thing is both Serbia and Greece are Britain's allies, and Britain won't fight the Greeks because it'd hurt its own economic interests there too and lose them to the Russians, which is something Britain will not do. The fact that the Ottoman's starting hand is worse and that the Ottomans just fought the disastrous Crimean war would mean that the Ottomans' army would still need time to rebuild as the Russians broke their backs.

Yeah you are right on the Britain situation on this part. I was not referring to an intervention by them with a navy squadron more so diplomatically to appease all the side with minimal changes to the borders. Of course also the Ottomans are starting in a very much worse situation economically. I don't know though about militarily. While their army is defeated again and again they have fought in these last 3 decades 2 wars and they should by all means and purposes have gathered some experience. Also it is a defensive war which helps on the whole man power usage. Additionally they have an overwhelming cavalry advantage which if used correctly then it could be a major thorn in the Balkan League's logistics.
Of course all of that are speculations. I just would like some suspense in the Greek development and it is already said that the government collapses spectacularly after the war so I don't see it going well....

 

[goumaister]

they wanted a port in the first place was so they would free their foreign trade from the hands of OTL the Austrians, and TTL that includes the Hungarians too; but I imagine the wishes for a port would be neutered somewhat if Serbia manages to obtain and maintain a land border with Montenegro

The bad thing for Serbia on that front is geography. I mean their route to the Adriatic coast is full of mountains so the trade that would go through there would be quite expensive. Better than going through Austria or Hungary? Maybe. Better a better solution is a trade agreement with Greece when Thesaloniki is freed. I wonder if a canal connecting Morava with Aksios/Vardar is feasible or even probable but it would be a fun experiment I guess.

 

[Quinkana]

Yeah you are right on the Britain situation on this part. I was not referring to an intervention by them with a navy squadron more so diplomatically to appease all the side with minimal changes to the borders. Of course also the Ottomans are starting in a very much worse situation economically. I don't know though about militarily. While their army is defeated again and again they have fought in these last 3 decades 2 wars and they should by all means and purposes have gathered some experience. Also it is a defensive war which helps on the whole man power usage. Additionally they have an overwhelming cavalry advantage which if used correctly then it could be a major thorn in the Balkan League's logistics.
Of course all of that are speculations. I just would like some suspense in the Greek development and it is already said that the government collapses spectacularly after the war so I don't see it going well....

I do think Greece losing is still a distinct possibility, but I'm just thinking of what the possible advances would be if the Turks are chased away in the Balkans. There're multiple reasons why Greece could lose the war, but them winning the war but losing the peace due to great power meddling is very possible. This war could end with Greece not doing super well too but still getting to Macedonia (basically pre WWI borders) with Serbia and blocking off the Ottomans from going further in, with Bulgaria and Albania being created while Serbia annexes Bosnia and maybe forms a union state with Montenegro. The Ottoman's land army is still very much a viable force if they don't get blocked in the Bosporous (which everyone from the Britains and Russians may enforce to prevent their interests from being damaged).

PS I do think that Philopopolis and Pygros being Greek is very possible when we get a war that's really successful, considering the weakness of the Bulgarians.

 

[Quinkana]

The bad thing for Serbia on that front is geography. I mean their route to the Adriatic coast is full of mountains so the trade that would go through there would be quite expensive. Better than going through Austria or Hungary? Maybe. Better a better solution is a trade agreement with Greece when Thesaloniki is freed. I wonder if a canal connecting Morava with Aksios/Vardar is feasible or even probable but it would be a fun experiment I guess.

tbf I think a land corridor would make more sense since the two nations should touch in macedonia. if going through it all is hard the greeks can ship through the Adriatic to montenegro and into serbia proper.

 

[Asriellian]

Tbh I can only imagine things going badly if Serbia tries to get Bosnia and Bulgaria in one war, one that's a lot of land to fight through and occupy, and two, the great powers definitely won't like the status quo being rocked that hard

 

[Quinkana]

Tbh I can only imagine things going badly if Serbia tries to get Bosnia and Bulgaria in one war, one that's a lot of land to fight through and occupy, and two, the great powers definitely won't like the status quo being rocked that hard

I could see the great powers like both Russia and Britain telling Serbia and Greece that they can't fight in the Dardanelles and the Greeks breaking that rule, making the Brits and Russians pissed and sapping the focus of central command to deal with the problem and letting the Ottomans win some victories and get some concessions.

 

[Damian0358]

The bad thing for Serbia on that front is geography. I mean their route to the Adriatic coast is full of mountains so the trade that would go through there would be quite expensive. Better than going through Austria or Hungary? Maybe. Better a better solution is a trade agreement with Greece when Thesaloniki is freed. I wonder if a canal connecting Morava with Aksios/Vardar is feasible or even probable but it would be a fun experiment I guess.

tbf I think a land corridor would make more sense since the two nations should touch in macedonia. if going through it all is hard the greeks can ship through the Adriatic to montenegro and into serbia proper.

There actually has been a lot of discussion about the construction of a (Danube-)Morava-Vardar/Axios Canal, and the idea even existed in the period, as can be seen in the 2018 journal article 'The idea of Morava-Vardar water canal and its long-term geopolitical context.' So regardless of whether it is feasible/probable, depending on the circumstances, someone might propose it, whether it be Serbia, Greece or even one of the Great Powers.

But I think a deal with Montenegro would probably make more sense to Serbia in the short-term, especially if they do get that border with Montenegro both countries always wanted.

 

[Quinkana]

There actually has been a lot of discussion about the construction of a (Danube-)Morava-Vardar/Axios Canal, and the idea even existed in the period, as can be seen in the 2018 journal article 'The idea of Morava-Vardar water canal and its long-term geopolitical context.' So regardless of whether it is feasible/probable, depending on the circumstances, someone might propose it, whether it be Serbia, Greece or even one of the Great Powers.

But I think a deal with Montenegro would probably make more sense to Serbia in the short-term, especially if they do get that border with Montenegro both countries always wanted.

I defo think that in the long term we'd see Serbia and Greece attempting the long canal, but in the short term going to Montenegro makes a lot more sense yeah, even if the Italians try to blockade them Greece's navy should be substantial enough, and if the Italians moved first Britain's probably going to be pro greece, so they should be relatively safe.

 

[goumaister]

as can be seen in the 2018 journal article '

that is were I got the idea from really

 

[A_simple_pilgrim]

Something to remember: one butterfly of this timeline was a larger and more cohesive Albanian revolt in the 1840s iirc*, which caused a longer and much more disruptive suppression from the ottomans, and also caused a plague which practically depopulated the Albanian cities.

These things, combined with the emigration of several prominent figures to Greece to escape Ottoman vengeance, means that Albania as a whole is depopulated and weakened compared to OTL, though I'm not experienced enough in this period of Albanian history to say whether they are also less organized and well-led.

These things, combined with the fact that muslim Albanians will probably form the backbone of the Ottoman armies in western Rumelia, mean that there's a good chance that the Albanian population will be even more devastated by this point in time compared to OTL history, and this is happening right before the Albanian Renaissance. There's every possibility that such a renaissance does not occur or is significantly weaker, with them never making the transition from a regional or cultural identity to a national one.

It's entirely possible that we either have no independent Albania due to the actions of Serbia, Greece, and even Italy, or that we have an extremely small rump Albania centered on the ruins of Tirana which is utterly beholden to the whims of Greece, Italy, and Serbia.

If I had to guess what will occur, I'd say that a rump Albanian core will exist between Serbia and Greece, connected to Thrace by a thin strip of land in Macedonia (I don't seee Greece and Serbia touching-yet). Then in the next large war, that rump area will be promised to Italy to gain their diplomatic or perhaps military support, and to strengthen relations between the countries. Greece would be particularly interested in this, probably. This would also cause tensions in the Greco-Serbian relation as, once the ottomans are defeated, Italy is a much preferred ally to Serbia, and Italy has Dalmatian aspirations.

*Due to a botched massacre of the beys, many were able to escape and return to their lands and people and organize the uprising far better. The greater Bosnian revolt gave more time for the concurrent Albanian revolt to reach a tipping point it never reached OTL and expand to most of Albania and involve many more people, prompting a larger and less lenient Ottoman response, leading to more death and many long sieges of the revolting cities which spread disease throughout the land and ruptured the city-countryside economy for a while.

 

[dino1x]

Considering the forces are relatively even on the European side and the balkan league ones seem to be better trained than the ottomans so long as greek navy succeeds in preventing the ottomans from transporting troops across the straight they will win

I highly doubt they get everything they ask for but considering the changed great power landscape they will probably get a good chunk

 

[Starkforlufe]

Did the Danubian Principates united in this TL to form Romania? So who is the ruler? Who is the heir of Napoleon 2? Wouldn’t he marry to try to father heirs for the throne?

 

[X Oristos]

I was reading again of Hobart's blockade of Syros after the spectacular failure to intercept Enosis. He demanded that the local authorities surrender Enosis and threatened to bombard the ship in the harbor of they failed to do so. I think what happened next demonstrates the fighting spirit of the Greek sailors of the era.

The port of Ermoupolis was blockaded by a squadron of 7 ottoman warships. Ermoupolis was a busy commercial port that wasn't covered by naval forts. There were no greek warships in the harbor. The city was for all purposes defenceless. Yet when the sailors of the merchant ships and the fishermen heard of Hobart's demands they spurred into action. Immediately and without instruction from the authorities they started preparing fireships to attack the enemy warships since they didn't even have armed merchantmen other than Enosis. The authorities stopped them and sent word to Athens.

So when merchant navy sailors faced the prospect of having to surrender the famous blockade runner, their response was "fireships". As a course of action they preferred to fill up a few ships with gunpowder and pitch and sail them against a squadron of steamships that would be able to fire at them with impunity, while the fireships would maneuver to get close. That incident says something about these crews.

And in TTL Greece has a larger stock of sailors compared to OTL with the addition of Chios, Samos, Crete and the Dodecanese. Chios in particular is the greek Nantucket when it comes to captains. Chios didn't forego its maritime tradition throught the 19th and 20th centuries. While rich in agricultural products (mastic resin, oranges, olive oil) it was always considered "an island of captains". I am under the impression that Chios has been the island with the greatest number of shipowners, at least during the 20th century.

 

[Daylight Savings]

Where are the major Ottoman naval bases at this time? Seems like the Balkan League is going to pick the starting point for this war. Naval dominance is critical so I wonder if some kind of surprise attack is possible? There's international goodwill concerns obviously with starting the war in such a way, but I wonder if it might be possible to time the DOW in such a way that you could swiftly follow up with a devastating blow to Ottoman naval strength.

I know a while back I had also mused on the capability of the Greeks to focus on asymmetric forces via submarines to counter the threat of great powers like Britain. We're at the period where people were first experimenting with the concept and I can't help but wonder if the Greeks are going to try some novel ideas. I could also see them sticking to a traditional battle fleet as a point of pride. They could want to be seen as going toe to toe with the Ottomans rather than using underhanded tactics to subvert them. The Aegean just seems like such a perfect ground submarines, especially for the power that holds all the islands which can house countless small bases.

 

[Hastings]

So the gist of what I am getting is that the Ottomans losing Cyprus and their remaining Aegean Islands is about as close to a forgone conclusion as you get in war...

 

[Daylight Savings]

So the gist of what I am getting is that the Ottomans losing Cyprus and their remaining Aegean Islands is about as close to a forgone conclusion as you get in war...

It's really a matter of how the naval war goes. These areas are largely Greek and in favor of enosis I believe. That means unless the Ottomans can consistently supply an occupying force, the Greeks don't have to do much to win them over. And as long as the Greek fleet exists as a threat it seems unlikely that the Ottomans will want to spare a lot of forces in the area around Cyprus when they will need to focus on transporting and supplying forces across the Aegean.

 

[A_simple_pilgrim]

The Ottoman Empire's Navy was so inefficient and slow in this period, they could DOW with a two weeks notice, and the ships would just be getting out of the harbor by the time the Greek Fleet showed up.