Pride Goes Before a Fall: A Revolutionary Greece Timeline

[Duke of Orlando]

Bulgaria being screwed here is such a boon for Greece, Serbia, and to a lesser extent Romania. All of them are in better positions compared to OTL and all of them are in a position to push their disputed claims and push their culture into said areas faster and stronger than otl.

The whole Bukovina ownership shuffle confuses me honestly. Am I just not remembering it already being separate and a Russian vassal? If not why would the Hapsburgs and the other powers let Russia detach a piece of Galicia to sell to one of their other puppets to raise money? Seems like no one would like them doing that as it takes away from the semi independence of Galicia and gives Russia money for essentially free.

The more I think about it the more I think Russia had Bukovina previously and I’m just not remembering it clearly. In that case it’s a non issue. But I’m leaving what I already wrote in case my original thoughts were correct.

My last original opinion is that the British come across as petty in punishing Greece. Like I get it and I bet in 5-10 years it’s completely forgotten. But it really comes across as the English being petty and grabbing some quick cash over a minor infraction. Smugglers are gonna smuggle, regardless of what the government says.

 

[Earl Marshal]

Well we’re still 20+ years before the OTL birth of Bulgaria, and with the Ottomans weaker and the Orthodox states stronger than OTL, I expect Bulgaria will come into being in the next couple of decades or so. However if Bulgaria is born a bit later than OTL, that will most likely benefit Greece.

Bulgaria will definitely get its independence, just not right now.

That's an interesting place in the border. Aside from Christian Pontic Greeks its also home to one of the most notable groups of Muslims Pontic Greek speakers...

So who's running the show there? Russia at the time actually more or less supported union of Wallachia and Moldavia in OTL, so an united Romania, albeit one on the Russian orbit is possible.

Interesting, I wasn't aware of this. In that case, a union between the two Principalities is probably going to be happening very soon then. I was originally going to have one of the native Princes assume the role of the King of Romania, but I haven't made a decision on the matter one way or another yet.

Too bad for the Bulgarians... even if it indirectly benefits the Greeks. Russia propaganda will likely be busy how perfidious Albion and the evil west did not allow Bulgarian independence...

The Bulgarians will get their independence eventually, but for now it was simply a bridge too far for the Russians after everything else. If nothing else, it will definitely work in Russia's favor propaganda wise as Perfidious Albion supported the butchery and oppression of the poor Bulgarian people.

And who these might be? Konstantinos, Theodore's son died in 1849, in OTL. Of course he was only 39 at the time and at a quick check could not find the cause of his death. So keeping him alive is not necessarily implausible and he'd be the right age. Nikolaos Kanaris, ok we are talking about the elder son of Constantine who at this time was a consul in OTL.

You are correct, those are Konstantinos Kolokotronis, son of Theodore Kolokotronis and Nikolaos Kanaris, son of Constantine Kanaris. I couldn't find any information regarding Konstantinos' death in 1849 so I attributed it to some random disease that could be avoided through butterflies. I'll keep searching, and if I find anything more serious like cancer then I'll swich him out with someone else. I used Nikolaos since he was a consul around this time in OTL and he has substantial ties to France given his education there in his youth.

Bulgaria being screwed here is such a boon for Greece, Serbia, and to a lesser extent Romania. All of them are in better positions compared to OTL and all of them are in a position to push their disputed claims and push their culture into said areas faster and stronger than otl.

Bulgaria remaining under Ottoman control will definitely help Bulgaria's neighbors going forward, but there are limits to Greece's gains and Bulgaria won't be occupied forever.

The whole Bukovina ownership shuffle confuses me honestly. Am I just not remembering it already being separate and a Russian vassal? If not why would the Hapsburgs and the other powers let Russia detach a piece of Galicia to sell to one of their other puppets to raise money? Seems like no one would like them doing that as it takes away from the semi independence of Galicia and gives Russia money for essentially free.

The more I think about it the more I think Russia had Bukovina previously and I’m just not remembering it clearly. In that case it’s a non issue. But I’m leaving what I already wrote in case my original thoughts were correct.

I probably could have worded that segment better, but Bukovina was restored to Moldavia at Russian expense. The money is going from Russia to Austria, not Moldavia to Russia.

My last original opinion is that the British come across as petty in punishing Greece. Like I get it and I bet in 5-10 years it’s completely forgotten. But it really comes across as the English being petty and grabbing some quick cash over a minor infraction. Smugglers are gonna smuggle, regardless of what the government says.

Yeah they are definitely being petty, but they just lost a pretty major war so emotions are running a little high right now. I'd also like to point out that the Greeks are technically getting something out of this, namely continued support for the Corinth Canal. Overall, its more of a slap on the wrist than anything too major.

 

[New Potomac]

Excellent update as always.

Seems like the Ottomans are in for an uncomfortable few years, though. Their military got smashed, they've lost territory, and they likely owe the British a decent sum of money that London will insist gets paid in full and on time. I want to say OTL Crimean War was the beginnings of the Ottoman's financial issues, which would plague them into later parts of the 19th century. And unlike the Crimean War, this has involved much more serious losses in men and land.

 

[Flosgon78]

After the next chapter on the Sepoy Mutiny, I'll be doing several parts on Greece, specifically covering the integration of its new provinces, the changing political dynamic in Greece, a quick look at some of the rising figures in Greek society, and a particular sporting event among many others. After those Greek updates, I'll do a couple updates on some parts of the world I've been neglecting recently.

Thank you for your answer, I can't wait to read the next parts

 

[nice_pengguin]

The war's name as it will be known in russia today does not seem to bode well with the turks.

 

[mapuche lautarino]

South Africa looks different on your timeline

MMM interesting

 

[RyuDrago]

I have the impression, that the war definitely broke the Concert of Europe fifty years before than TTL. Not that I am expecting a 19th Century Great War, but a series of conflicts far more geographically shaping than in our timeline.

Naturally, being our main interest over Greece, Athens got great results without bloodshed. And, while the British decision to break the alliance with Greece may be annoying, is what the former decided - that the United Kingdom won't intervene in a war between the Greeks and the Turks - because it could really be the winning ace for the Hellenic Kingdom. Because if war will happen and the Greeks will win big (of course reaching the big prize we all know what would be), London will eat its hands later by being so foolish at Paris. And I think the French will be the ones which would benefit first hand of a Greek triumph... Anyway those are just suppositions for the future.

Still, taking Thessaly (the most important reward of this turn), Epirus and also Rhodes decades earlier than OTL is a resounding success for Greece. Also because would put the Greeks on the condition to prey the Turks of that other Greek majority big island to the East of them, and I think war between them could likely happen over said island, which would put the British into a tizzy but would be powerless to do anything...

Britain by scoffing out Greece is going to put the Mediterranean to the French hands with Greece as Paris's guardian of its interests in Egypt and the Levant and would have to go for it

 

[Aristomenes]

Excellent update! The Canadians don't know it yet, but they 've got the jackpot! I wonder how will the relationship between USA and Russia be impacted in the 20th century with a British/Canadian Alaska.
The Russian may have won, but I fell that this victory will not force them to make reforms in their military as IOTL.
Greece might be the biggest winner from this war. I wanted to ask, IOTL there was a cholera pandemic in Greece due to the British-French joint occupation of Piraeus and Athens. Of course ITTL there is no occupation, but was there any chorera outbreak due to English ships stopping for supplies? Or is it averted/mitigated due to better hospitals and better governance ITTL?

 

[New Potomac]

And, while the British decision to break the alliance with Greece may be annoying, is what the former decided - that the United Kingdom won't intervene in a war between the Greeks and the Turks - because it could really be the winning ace for the Hellenic Kingdom.

I think some people are jumping on this a bit much.

Really the alliance isn't broken, yet. And from a reasonable perspective the British are being incredibly generous here. Greece gained significant territorial concessions when the British could have simply offered to bomb Athens instead if they overstepped. And then, in discovering that the Greeks turned a blind eye to significant amounts of smuggling anyway, allowed them to keep the territorial concessions with little more than a slap on the wrist.

And now the new normal is the Greeks can't take overt actions against the Turks and expect the British to still come to their rescue which, well, fair?

 

[Daylight Savings]

I'm shocked that Prussia agreed to a nominally independent Galicia. Even though the situation on the ground is obviously not pro-Polish, I would think they'd view it as setting a bad precedent. Its going to be very interesting to see what develops in northern Europe. Alongside changes in Prussia, I'm wondering if the perceived diminution of British power and the prestige of Sweden's new acquisition will affect the Norwegian independence movement at all.

The sale of Alaska to the UK has some interesting potential for Canada. Without being surrounded by America and with another population and economic center on the west coast British Columbia might look differently at confederation. There's obviously other draws still, but it's possible we see a different course.

Speaking of the Americas, I know butterflies have been minor, with the exception of a younger Adams developing a love for Greece, but we're reaching a crucial point in history. 1860 is not destined to be the year, but the slavery issue must be settled soon as the south necessarily loses political clout to a quickly growing north. I know we're focused on Greece, but I think we all assume a true Great War is coming at some point and the disposition of America to the nations of Europe could definitely put a finger on the scales.

 

[BenC]

The timeline has been worth it just for the fact it's cleaned up the the US-Canadian border.

Another excellent update, looking forward to the next.

 

[danybhoy]

Did I miss mexican american war happening same as otl or is that map wrong?

 

[RyuDrago]

I think some people are jumping on this a bit much.

Really the alliance isn't broken, yet. And from a reasonable perspective the British are being incredibly generous here. Greece gained significant territorial concessions when the British could have simply offered to bomb Athens instead if they overstepped. And then, in discovering that the Greeks turned a blind eye to significant amounts of smuggling anyway, allowed them to keep the territorial concessions with little more than a slap on the wrist.

And now the new normal is the Greeks can't take overt actions against the Turks and expect the British to still come to their rescue which, well, fair?

Now, bombing Athens would have been quite the unreasonable reaction and a kill move for Britain - all of Europe would have cried foul for such an act and even the US as well. But I can concede London might have used a proper leverage to keep contained Hellenic ambitions.

Point is, Britain didn't come out well from the war. Spent a lot of money for the conflict, lot of lives for the conflict, lot of money for Alaska to let Russia make a Galician puppet, and India being in a state of disarray... Those are not the grounds for a splendid isolation. Britain may still be the biggest Empire of the world, but is not the supreme arbiter of the world. Its myth of invincibility got shattered, enough to make Britain even more cautious over supporting that or that other country.

Also if the straits would fall in Greek hands, and France would be for it, Britain would have to comply - better Greece than Russia. At least London can assume hardly Greece would be friendly with Russia if Russia won't swallow a Hellenic Constantinople.

 

[New Potomac]

Now, bombing Athens would have been quite the unreasonable reaction and a kill move for Britain - all of Europe would have cried foul for such an act and even the US as well. But I can concede London might have used a proper leverage to keep contained Hellenic ambitions.

Maybe a bit of a exaggeration on my part but few countries are willing to spill blood or even care for the sovereignty of your Greeces during this period.

In the OTL Crimean War the British and French I'm pretty sure just straight up occupied Greek ports to limit their involvement, which was a huge violation of sovereignty of a 'neutral' power that received promptly zero international pushback.

And in World War 1 the Entente just straight up occupied Macedonia, eventually supported a rival Venizelist government in Thessaloniki, and even tried landing marines in Athens to force the pro-German King to abdicate, and then settled on simply blockading them until a pro-Entente government was fully in power.

Which is to say the British are actually being extremely diplomatic and friendly here, when if they wanted they could have just said "do this or else" and no one would really bat an eyelash.

 

[TheCoolCucumber]

The sale of Alaska to the UK has some interesting potential for Canada. Without being surrounded by America and with another population and economic center on the west coast British Columbia might look differently at confederation. There's obviously other draws still, but it's possible we see a different course.

Alaska is empty wilderness at this point, so it won't change the calculus for BC. Unless the American Civil War doesn't happen we can probably expect Confederation at about the same time as OTL, and British Columbia will join a few years later.

 

[X Oristos]

the rights of the Bulgarians guaranteed by the Ottoman Government

I think one of the causes of the next russo-turkish war has been revealed. After all, we know that "many more falling in the years that followed"

Overall, some 18,000 Bulgarian men, women, and children would be slain in 1854 alone, many of whom having little to do with the revolt against the Porte, with many more falling in the years that followed.

There was another aspect of the Ottoman atrocities of the era: Slavery. During the Bulgarian Horrors around 10,000 women and children were sold as slaves. The same pattern took place in the Hamidian Massacres and culminated in the Armenian Genocide. Even after the defeat of WW1, it was difficult to retrieve the Armenian slaves, as their masters were reluctant to give up their "property".

A good PR move from Prince Constantine would be to send men to track down and buy back some enslaved Bulgarians and Greeks (in this case old Greek Revolution slaves). Imagine the alt-self of a man who became notorious for being responsible for the enslavement and murder of millions, to become known as a liberator of slaves! Even if it is simply PR and involves small numbers of slaves.

Beyond this thinly veiled threat, the British Government would also request that they receive a 40% stake in the Corinth Canal in return for their continued support of the canal’s construction

Ha! Joke's on them. It seems that the British will end up paying 40% of the cost for the numerous landslides in the decades to come.

There is a great difference compated to OTL: Greece gets the hilly/mountainous region north of Larisa. A region-natural fortress they didn't get in the OTL annexation of Thessaly. The new border ensures that an ottoman army will have a tough time to break into the thessalian plain. At the same time Greece can invade Macedonia much more easily compared to the OTL Balkan Wars.

 

[Duke of Orlando]

On a less Greek centered note, how do the Bulgarians feel about this peace? I know we’ve kinda joked through the latter portion of the war that the only real losers in this war were the Ottomans, but the Bulgarians are in a strong position to claim they were just as big losers. Their land was ravaged by marauding armies, their women and children suffered the most, their men where the worst equipped but were still part of the Russian meat grinder, and disease likely ran rampant in their towns and cities near army camps or while under siege. And what did all of their sacrifice and suffering gain them? Nothing but a big target on their chests as the Ottomans focus on hurting them as much as they can under the auspices of the treaty.

If I was the Bulgarians I’d feel abandoned by the Russians. The Armenians weren’t especially helpful but Russia liberated them. They helped Serbia and Montenegro and the Romanian principalities. But they didn’t do anything but “secure” rights for the Bulgarians.

Geopolitically the treat makes perfect sense obviously. I’m not criticizing the treaty as a reader. I’m criticizing it from a Bulgarians point of view. And from that point of view I’d be mad as hell at Russia. And I might start looking at other potential benefactors.

Or maybe I’m blowing this out of proportion. Early modern Bulgaria is not something I’m particularly well versed in so I could be wrong.

 

[Ridcully]

On a less Greek centered note, how do the Bulgarians feel about this peace? I know we’ve kinda joked through the latter portion of the war that the only real losers in this war were the Ottomans, but the Bulgarians are in a strong position to claim they were just as big losers. Their land was ravaged by marauding armies, their women and children suffered the most, their men where the worst equipped but were still part of the Russian meat grinder, and disease likely ran rampant in their towns and cities near army camps or while under siege. And what did all of their sacrifice and suffering gain them? Nothing but a big target on their chests as the Ottomans focus on hurting them as much as they can under the auspices of the treaty.

If I was the Bulgarians I’d feel abandoned by the Russians. The Armenians weren’t especially helpful but Russia liberated them. They helped Serbia and Montenegro and the Romanian principalities. But they didn’t do anything but “secure” rights for the Bulgarians.

Geopolitically the treat makes perfect sense obviously. I’m not criticizing the treaty as a reader. I’m criticizing it from a Bulgarians point of view. And from that point of view I’d be mad as hell at Russia. And I might start looking at other potential benefactors.

Or maybe I’m blowing this out of proportion. Early modern Bulgaria is not something I’m particularly well versed in so I could be wrong.

I dunno, seems to me that they could just as easily take the view that Russia fought hard to liberate the Balkan nations but most of Europe rose up to stop them from destroying the Ottomans and firmly opposed a Bulgarian state.

I would imagine that the blame would be placed much more on the other European powers rather than the only power who’s war goals would have benefited Bulgaria.

 

[New Potomac]

The real problem I'd bet is that this war came a good decade or two before Bulgarian nationalism would be strong enough to force concessions, or have the other powers prevail upon the Ottomans to make concessions. It was only because the Russians were as dominant as they were that the subject could even be broached, and then they overextended themselves.

Though their experience in this, both with the Russians, battles, occupation, and then being kept under the Ottomans thumb, should definitely accelerate their national awakening I'd bet. Especially as they get encroached on by the Greeks and Serbs.

 

[Sarthak]

I know you said Bulgaria would go independent ittl but I would love to see the 'Sultan of the Ottomans, Caliph of All Islam and Tsar of All Bulgarians' plan actually go through ittl.