Likely not much. Yes there were Greek nationalists who hoped/believed in a Greek Eastern Rumelia. But I consider it quite unlikely. Otherwise the Greeks got nearly their hoped for end-game in Macedonia in OTL with the sole exception of Monastir and the Gevgeli-Doiran-Strumica-Neurokop strip. That and an Ardas river border in Thrace... if Thrace becomes Greek are likely the outer limit of what the Greeks would be aiming for,
Pride Goes Before a Fall: A Revolutionary Greece Timeline
- Thread starter Earl Marshal
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More than a few, though; Greece actually went into full crisis mode when Eastern Rumelia was annexed IOTL, and even mobilized the army for a few months, trying to blackmail a commensurate compensation by threatening war (even though Greece had no common border with Bulgaria). As a result, Eastern Rumelia was considered terra irredenta by many as late as World War II, although no Greek government ever formally laid claim to it. A more successful Greece, with a border further north much earlier, does not mean that these ambitions will vanish, but rather, that they will look more achievable to more people. Especially if there is no OTL population exchange, and Plovdiv/Philippopolis still has a sizeable Greek population. Greek-Bulgarian relations may avoid much of the bitter antagonism of OTL over Macedonia because the Greeks got there much earlier, but it will only make northern Macedonia and Thrace the new battlefield. I think that an early Greek annexation of southern Macedonia would make it the Eastern Rumelia analogue, but for the Bulgarian nationalists of TTL, i.e., 'the province, rightfully ours, that these perfidious Greeks managed to snatch from us because we shared no common border and we were weak/had weak leaders, with the backing of the Great Powers, who never supported us'.
I doubt that southern Macedonia will not be bitterly contested ITTL; the land is more arable and wealthier, with Thessaloniki in particular a massive potential prize, and so there’s massive incentive for Bulgaria to aggressively claim the whole region just as they did IOTL. They won’t experience much success on that front, I’m sure, but that doesn’t mean Bulgaria won’t try for it.
While Greece has the most Greek portions of Northern Epirus they don’t have the more Northeastern portion that’s more Albanian culturally but was claimed by Greece OTL. Plus Vlore is a prize worth trying to claim, although that’s secondary to the corridor that makes up the rest of OTL Northern Epirus and more difficult to acquire. So I think we’ll see definitely see that strip from what Greece currently has up to Lake Prespa and the south end Lake Ohrid be heavily targeted by Greek schools. That also very neatly ties into the Monastir area and since that’s likely to be heavily targeted as well it makes sense.
I feel like some of Eastern Rumelia is potentially in reach for the Greeks ITTL depending on how everything goes. Something like a Philippopolis salient and a costal strip leading up to, and maybe including, Burgas seems doable. Particularly the coastal strip up to Burgas. From my understanding the coast of Eastern Rumelia was very Greek in nature before population exchanges. So that seems like a very feasible extension off of eastern Thrace if it becomes Greek
The problem is that the greek population of Eastern Rumelia/ Northern Thrace was concentrated along the coasts or in the urban centers. Geography alone makes unlikely the hellenization of the rural population. What I consider more plausible is the hellenization of bulgarian population in today's Evros Regional Unit or East Thrace. What I also see as plausible is the inclusion of some of the most southern East Rumelian villages along the coast, e.g. Ahtopol/Agathoupolis.
In terms of perceived greek security, the most important region of East Rumelia is as Lascaris mentioned the mountainous area up to the Arda river, but in any case the majority of the population there are muslims and not orthodox. A military target rather than a cultural imperialism one.
Oh I absolutely agree about the military target difference. Trying to culturally convert large portions of rural East Rumelia without first controlling is is a fool’s errand at this point IMO. 100% agree. My ideas for the “Philippopolis/Plovdiv salient” was very much a military conquest first, spread Greek culture second process. And that’s not an idea I’m sold on. Just something I could see working if enough resources are directed at it.
Much more logically are the southeastern costal villages as you state. Those were already highly Greek in nature as I understand it, so focusing on them and helping to reinforce Greek culture in those towns is a more worthwhile effort as far as Greek cultural Imperialism goes. And before we get anywhere near there, the Greeks have the rest of northern Epirus and Macedonia to focus on culturally first.
On the topic of spreading Greek Culture in Central / Eastern Rumelia, are we not debating our theories based on OTL Greece? Surely, ITTL Hellas has the capability (now that it is in control of the majority of the Hellenic Homeland) to throw its cultural weight around more than it could've IOTL? Especially when Thessaly's been fully integrated into the Hellenic Industry / Economy, shouldn't it have the wealth to promote its teachers and schools in the Ottoman Empire?
Also, I believe that the fostering of Greek schools in Anatolia already exists ITTL in updates past. So since that funding has already been decided, then that would mean future funding for Hellas' cultural industry would then be put toward Northern Macedonia & Central Thrake more so?
I'm no expert, I just wanted to throw in my two cents. Keep on the good work Earl Marshal!
Also, I believe that the fostering of Greek schools in Anatolia already exists ITTL in updates past. So since that funding has already been decided, then that would mean future funding for Hellas' cultural industry would then be put toward Northern Macedonia & Central Thrake more so?
I'm no expert, I just wanted to throw in my two cents. Keep on the good work Earl Marshal!
As with all things involving the Balkans the answer to this is “it’s complicated”.
Greece is certainly in a completely different weight class as compared to her otl self at this point, no question. She’s more populous, more prosperous, more industrialized, more advanced, and obviously larger. More importantly she will have stronger and earlier ties to the culturally “contested” regions. These give her huge advantages as compared to OTL. She also is likely to have a lot of Ottoman support against the Bulgarians in the “school wars” as the Ottomans will almost certainly view the Bulgarians as the more dangerous and immediate threat after this last conflict. So she definitely can throw her weight around a lot more and also hopefully more efficiently.
All of this doesn’t mean she has innumerable resources though, and trying to focus on too much too soon could draw Greece’s resources dangerously thin. While Macedonia, West Thrace, East Thrace, and to a lesser extent Southern Albania are in a state of cultural flux for a good portion of the next 50-70ish years (20ish OTL for Albania but that may speed up or slow down with everything that’s happened ITTL), Northern Thrace/ Eastern Rumelia is pretty solidly Bulgarian outside of Philippopolis/Plovdiv and the coast. And trying to convince people in a rural Bulgarian village that they’re actually Greek and should learn to speak, read, and worship in Greek and ignore the priest who they’ve listened to their whole lives is a very very hard task. Especially when your government doesn’t control their valley. Greece also lacks a direct land connection to the area at the moment. And while Southern Thrace isnt either it also has a large existing Greek population. Northern Thrace only has the thin strip on the Black Sea. So compared to any of the other regions you get a lot less return in Eastern Thrace, especially if you don’t control the territory itself.
Plus in all likelihood Bulgaria will be free after the peace treaty and attempting to do the same thing all while being closer, physically and culturally. All 20 years earlier than OTL. And the Greeks will have closer and much less contested targets as well.
Do I think that Greece will control more of the area than OTL? Absolutely. I expect Greece to move the border north compared to OTL almost universally. But trying for all of it Is a good way to lose a lot of other opportunities. Especially if they don’t make sure to focus on all the easier targets first.
Edit: If anyone would like the demographic maps I look at let me know. I’ll message them to you or post them if enough people are interested. Some are fantastic and informative while others are a mess though. So you’ve been warned!
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Why would you do that? You don't convince the people against their priest. You convince the village priest that he's Greek, he just speaks a slavic dialect. And the teacher. And the grocery store owner, never forget the grocery store owner. They convince everyone else. After all slavophone Greeks were very much around, I could be wrong but I understand grekomani is still an insult among our northern neighbours, so having/creating more is not something coming out of the blue.
Another obvious problem in the Bulgarian sees was the low quality people that became bishops, often enough bribing their way to the positions and then using them to enrich themselves. Back in my RPG days in SHWI-ISOT I had dealt with this by the simple expedient of starting behind the scenes a bidding war to have the people Greece wanted in the bishoprics on the logic that at a minimum better bishops would generate some goodwill among the locals and a state can outbid any individual so after a while people would stop even trying. No reason some bright fellow in the Greek foreign ministry in TTL can't come up with the same solution. No reason someone would either.
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I'm no expert in Greek history, but it seems like "convincing Bulgarians they're actually Greek" would be a lot easier if "Byzantinism" saw a resurgence, seeing as the "Roman" identity is a lot more inclusive.
Also, I'm surprised that there isn't much discussion on the second half of the title. Things have been going extremely well for Greece...when does it hit its zenith?
Also, I'm surprised that there isn't much discussion on the second half of the title. Things have been going extremely well for Greece...when does it hit its zenith?
The title doesn't really relate to a projection forward of Greece's position in the future of this timeline - it relates to the pride of one of Greece's revolutionary military leaders leading to his death (and thereby sparing the ATL Greeks their intra-revolutionary civil wars, which plagued them OTL). Though I do think it's entirely possible that Greece here might someday bite off more than they can chew - especially if their ATL answer to Leopold II ever becomes King - the title isn't foreshadowing it.
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What Lascaris said. Northern Thrace is pretty solidly Slavophone outside the major towns, but just like rural Macedonia, 'Bulgarian', just as 'Greek', was an unknown concept to most of the rural people until someone came (a priest, a schoolteacher, a gendarme, a university-educated youth who propagated 'modern' concepts like nationalism) who told them that they were, in fact, Bulgarian or Greek (or Serb, or Romanian). There are plenty of sources attesting to the fact that many of the Balkan peasants conceived themselves simply as 'locals' or 'Christians'. Of course the Bulgarians have an advantage that far north, just by the absence of many Greek-speakers and distance; but TTL Greece has a thirty-year head start, so their influence will be felt much further north than OTL.
They will definitely want it, but it looks like Greece will get it first, long before the Bulgarians have had a chance to develop their position there or get a border close enough to claim a share; then that will be a fait accompli, just like the 1885 Eastern Rumelian annexation (which is the analogy I was driving at). IOTL the contest was about who would control southern Macedonia and Salonica, but even then, the Greek propaganda network was active in areas further afield, in what is now North Macedonia. The way things are going ITTL, the contested zone will lie (much?) further to the north than Thessaloniki. Plus, ultimately, schools and propaganda are one thing, but where the border ends up being will be determined on the battlefield, just as in OTL, where Greece arguably was much more successful than expected.
I know slavophone Greeks were a thing but the clergy and teachers were typically already the most educated and nationalistic groups in the Balkans at the time. And widely the Northern Thrace ones were of Bulgarian origin. That’s not to say it’s impossible. You certainly can with the right savy individuals and opportunistic locals. But it’s not easy and theres also a lot of other areas the Greeks should and will focus on first.
I’m not saying that Some of Northern Thrace and especially Northern Macedonia is impossible. Depending on how lucky and fast the Greeks are and how slowly the Bulgarians get their bearings in the early years of country building quite a lot is up for grabs. I mean if Bulgaria becomes a mess of infighting for the next decade or two they might not even look at expanding for a while. And if Greece continues growing quickly in 20-30 years she could have a land border with Norther Thrace which increases he reach drastically.
But we can’t act like it’s easy to convert every village or that Greece has infinite resources. She doesn’t. And she also has to focus resources on integrating Thessaly and the portion of northern Epirus she’s about to get.
I expect that Philippopolis will be the major cultural battle ground between Green and Bulgaria ITTL instead of Thessaloniki. Especially if Greece movesmoves the border closer before Bulgaria gets it.
Was this proclamation released in 1850 ITTL? This was a clear demarcation point for when the religious-cultural struggle between the Greeks and Bulgarians became overtly political; if it was delayed I’d argue it would help the Greek cause.
Also if they start pushing out of Greecian territory, their neighbors won't be as understanding. Greece gets some slack yes, but there's a fine line between letting them educate some people and starting a separatist movement.
They're talking of Ottoman regions. Autonomous principalities and independent realms other than the decaying Ottoman Empire are of course a whole different kettle of fish.
I'd love to see them, always interested in demographic data on the Balkans and Anatolia since its such a complex region to survey demographically
Yeah, because clearly that's a better idea, instead of pissing off your smaller neighbors, you piss off the big one, and in a way they can link to you.