Maybe realpolitic is more likely to see the creation of Poland than any strength of arms.
Yeah I could honestly see even the Prussians getting on board with this to a degree. Not actively agreeing with it but kinda just accepting the work of others. Maybe even making a deal with their Poles. Give the revolutionaries weapons after they’re escorted to the Russian border and simultaneously turning the Germanization up to 11 in Prussian Poland for those that stick around.

Alternatively the rest of Europe could target Prussia as well if they stand by the Russians and ally with them in a Polish intervention type situation. Regardless I expect north Eastern Europe to be a lot more politically unstable ITTL
 
A Polish state creates more problems than its worth for most of the participants. The real game is that if Russia really does go for domination of the Balkans let alone for Constantinople, the other powers are going to intervene to bailout the Ottomans.

There is valid recognition that the Russians have won on the battlefield, and so there will be consequences. But no power be it France or Germany would consider Russian domination of South Eastern Europe a desirable outcome, or even palpable.
 
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My prediction

1: Independent Serbia and Montenegro with both gaining modest lands
2: De-facto independent Bulgaria that still has to pay lip service to the Porte (with a border including OTL Eastern Rumelia)
3: Ottomans lose all influence in the Danubian principalities
4: Caucasus border moved to the frontlines as they are when the ceasefire is signed
5: Significant war reparations from the Ottomans for damage caused to the Russian Caucasus and a formal recognition of Russian sovereignty in the region.
6: Time Bound ban on Ottoman ships from going in the Black Sea
7: No independent Poland. It would require full on coalition war against Russia to achieve which is not in the cards for both narrative reasons (it would significantly strengthen the Ottomans and thus hurt Greece), and in universe ones (Prussia won’t be on board, Austria would get invaded by Italy if they tried, France doesn’t see a need as long as Russia doesn’t get to greedy and Britain already tried and failed).
 
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The War will come to an end in the next part.
Oops, sounds like someone has found out about their province's taxes being embezzled and their French cousin is very much, 'imperially' pissed off.

At this point, I'd say if Russia tries to overplay its hand, France stepping in would make the dominoes fall, with Hungary quickly following suit and Sweden-Norway closer to make the jump at last. At the same time, I see Nicholas is a bit late on his appointment with Death.

Also, I can't wait to see how the Persian and Indian wars turn out. With Russia more or less victorious in the Balkans, we pretty much get in advance the result of the OTL war of 1877-1878 (just by analogy) with the bonus of a humbled Britain.

And that happens at a time the scramble for China is about to open, which in my view is going to be so much fun to read in this TL about. Even after the defeat in Crimea, Russian annexation of Amur and Ussuri territories was quite an event, and such a good geostrategical hand, it's to wonder if they can do even better in the Far East. And with its humiliating loss to the Russians, there is to see how British attitude towards the Qing will change.
Besides the Russians in the Amur basin, the French too were bound to make inroads in Indochina with longstanding interests in Annam (dating back to the 18th century and the establishment of the Nguyen dynasty with French help), though that happened on the back of the Spanish (French conquests in Cochinchina wouldn't have been possible without Spanish help from the Philippines it seems), and through the way of missionaries, French cultural influence in China and Korea was ever growing (lot of history going back to Louis XIV and the Jesuits).
So, with these two stepping up their commitment in East Asia, it's difficult to see the British not doing something, and also difficult to see them doing something after the last Russo-Turkish war. And I'm not even speaking of the Americans of Commodore Perry stepping into the fray in Japan, and the Taiping rebellion. It will be very interesting to see how you're going to write all this out.



And a last thing, what about Alaska?
IOTL, Alexander II was already a bit dubious about the merits of selling it to the Americans, Gorchakov was not very pressed to risk possibly antagonizing the British over this and finance minister von Reutern wasn't convinced either of the sale's potential to alleviate their financial troubles after the Crimean war. In fact, it transpires that the sale was largely driven by the relentless lobbying effort by Baron de Stoeckl and Secretary Seward, and nearly never happened; de Stoeckl had already tried to sell it before the civil war, and after it, Seward was pretty much alone with Sumner in pursuing the fantasies of a 'frozen wilderness'. I myself researched a TL into which the sale never happened just by having Seward removed from the equation.
In a longer term, I'm of the opinion that due to the financial sinkhole that the colony was, the Russians would have eventually abolished the monopoly of the Russian American Company on the model of what the British had precisely done in neighboring British Columbia with the monopoly of the Hudson Bay Company, following up on the OTL Golovin Report, a report that seemingly went a long way criticizing the RAC mismanagement of the colony's potential resources (I've not yet put my hand on the report itself, but accounts of it gave me this impression), strangling its development.
 
I do not feel Russia in Constantinople in this war, rather it would seem that they would accept an international conference led by France so that Russian requests do not exceed the limit, and that the other powers get something from the Ottoman if Russia does not accept they will have to face a coalition of countries fearful of Russian expansionism for what I think they will accept.
 
My prediction

1: Independent Serbia and Montenegro with both gaining modest lands
2: De-facto independent Bulgaria that still has to pay lip service to the Porte (with a border including OTL Eastern Rumelia)
3: Ottomans lose all influence in the Danubian principalities
4: Caucasus border moved to the frontlines as they are when the ceasefire is signed
5: Significant war reparations from the Ottomans for damage caused to the Russian Caucasus and a formal recognition of Russian sovereignty in the region.
6: Time Bound ban on Ottoman ships from going in the Black Sea
7: No independent Poland. It would require full on coalition war against Russia to achieve which is not in the cards for both narrative reasons (it would significantly strengthen the Ottomans and thus hurt Greece), and in universe ones (Prussia won’t be on board, Austria would get invaded by Italy if they tried, France doesn’t see a need as long as Russia doesn’t get to greedy and Britain already tried and failed).
I don’t think Poland is at all possible right now. That said there’s always the next war and I think the British are very cognizant of that fact. In 20 years the diplomatic board could be drastically altered and London will do everything in its power to win round two. They got cocky in the preparation to this war and I don’t think they will in the next.

As for the rest of what you laid out I think it’s broadly about right. I think the Russians might try and shuffle around some territory to get Trabzon/Trebizond but I don’t think they’ll be willing to give up enough to get the city. Although between now and then they could capture the city too I suppose.

I don’t see all of Eastern Rumelian happening either. Maybe if they had made peace when the ottomans first asked but the hypothetical coalition gives the ottomans more bargaining power assuming other powers become involved in the peace process. No one wants to see a Russian puppet that close to Constantinople. Not even the Greeks as it would put their future gains at risk of being taken by Bulgaria. So I expect only the northern half to be given to Bulgaria. Depending on how aggressive the Coalition is, maybe even less than that.
 
As for the rest of what you laid out I think it’s broadly about right. I think the Russians might try and shuffle around some territory to get Trabzon/Trebizond but I don’t think they’ll be willing to give up enough to get the city. Although between now and then they could capture the city too I suppose.

Perhaps an enlarged independent Armenia, under Russian auspices?

Could avert a certain 20th century genocide, if nothing else....
 
It seems that the British will lose a lot of credibility with this war. They pushed the ottoman empire to fight against Russia, and the result was catastrophic. Worse the United Kingdom will surely ask the Ottoman to pay for their loan Ottomans will be forced to pay an insane amount of money. They will surely ask for help to mitigate Russian expansion, and some Russian elite will consider that the British are an obstacle in the way of their success. They will also presume that the United Kingdom use other nation as cannon-folder and use diplomacy to push other countries to confront them.

French helped the British in this war (not really, they only stell stuff to them, but they could have sold to the Russian instead, not sure they would have accepted, but in their mind, they were on the English side), and the British helped one of its enemies in their war to decrease their presence in Egypt.

It seems that the term Perfidious Albion will be well-known to many people. British will be seen by the European as puppet masters pushing them to fight against the others. If the Russians decide to throw away Alaska to the British in exchange for other gains, Ottomans risk to go mad, many people will be shocked and the English reputation risks to collapse.

Many will think that the British pushed the Ottomans to war and sacrificed them to make some minor gains. We could even see a funny situation where the Russian is willing to abandon Alaska in exchange for some profit, and the British diplomat will be forced to refuse and push the Russian to keep it to avoid bad press.

The United Kingdom will be in a sticky spot diplomatically. A lot of people will continue to seek their help and ally them due to many reasons. Due to a common enemy, need to avoid them to join or launch a coalition against them(cough France cough), for economic opportunity, etc. But many diplomats will be wary of them, shaking hands with distrust and forming a losing alliance. If some national newspaper learns about British bribe to their congressmen it could cause an immense scandal.

With a more significant military loss, and maybe the rise of sturdy powers. (Prussia seems to be weakened they lost a lot of goodwill with german nationalist due to the war, and France have friendly relation with Austria) so the situation in central Europa and a stronger France with their gain in Wallonia could focus on foreign adventures). A more consequential Russia could also put an end to the Pax Britannica. British people will be forced to adapt their conduct.

They need to manage the ego of their ally to be forced to make a concession. They will try to avoid an alliance between France and Russia, it will be scary as hell). The United Kingdom still has many strong cards, a large empire, a strong net composed of economic links, and many alliances. However, it will be different from the Pax Britannica, the term of Victorian Era risk to be linked to the United kingdom only and not for the world, or the saying will be less common.

I wonder if this war will cause the three nations to reform itself, British and ottoman for understandable reasons, it was explained by many people but would the Russians do the same?

They won this war but failed. This war was the opportunity the best moment to take Constantinople for many but, they failed due to many reasons, economic and military. Their action caused a heavy backlash, and they risk facing many enemies in the future and even fight a coalition?
For many people losing a conflict encourage to reform your army, and winning pushes for complacency. I agree nevertheless, I think it's more complex than this. Russia failed to grasp the opportunity and risk to face more enemies in the future these reasons could push Russian to analyze their failure.

Russian elite will want a Russia strong enough to fight against multi-foe for a long time, and try to break their diplomatic encirclement. They will surely try to keep a friendly relation with Prussia and Austria, at the same time trying to form a good relationship with France (causing friction with Prussia). (It will surely be impossible to satisfy the three of them, so it will surely be like OTL diplomacy in the 19th century, alliance evolving in the function of the international crisis, and new leader). What I want to mean is that Russia will not stay a spectator when British will try to form a coalition against them. They are not stupid. They know that the United Kingdom and Ottomans want revenge if they manage to keep Prussia, Austria, and France out of this coalition, it will make their future smoother. Sweden will not join this alliance if Austria and Prussia stay neutral.

It could push the Russian to modernize their army and their economy. They need to reform their agricultural system, a mere blockade could force them to their knees. They need to have an efficient agricultural sector that could work during the war. They need a better logistic to fight a multi-front war, feed their army and their people, improve their supply line. They need to avoid their large loose in terms of attrition and battle. They lost too many people, without these tremendous sacrifices they could have maybe taken Constantinople.

We could even see a great game between the United Kingdom, France (especially if they keep their control of the Suez canal), and Russia. Sometimes France allying with Russia against the United Kingdom. Sometimes France allying with the United kingdom against the Russian. Sometimes the United Kingdom allying with the Russian against the French and at the same time both nations trying to avoid conflict or war between them and keeping cordial relations. We could maybe a scramble of China or something similar could happen or maybe not the situation is different) and small power will try to grab some opportunity for them.


The situation seems complicated and it's really interesting to see how it will evolve.
 
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Part 84: Breaking Point


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Russian Cavalrymen Pursue Fleeing Ottoman Soldiers

The start of the 1856 campaigning season would begin a little later than the previous year. Having already fulfilled most of his objectives, and much more, General Nikolay Muravyov would instead allow his exhausted soldiers time to rest and recuperate after a year and a half of almost constant fighting and marching in extremely difficult terrain and weather. Beyond this, however, his dreadfully long supply lines simply made it impossible to keep pushing westward at the rate he had in 1855. Instead, the Russian Army of the Caucasus would be refocused outwards once Spring arrived in Anatolia, expanding its narrow salient to both the North and the South.

In the south, a portion of the Russian Army under Prince Vasily Osipovich Bebutov would successfully reduce the Beyazit salient by the end of May. Resistance in the area had been rather sporadic as the Ottomans had largely evacuated their remaining troops from the region over the Winter. After Beyazit’s fall on the 15th of April, Bebutov was instructed to begin pushing southwards toward Lake Van and then onward to the cities of Mush and Van if possible. However, his offensive here would run into increasing trouble, more so from the rugged terrain and local Kurdish bandits than any official Ottoman resistance. Prince Bebutov’s detachment would eventually reach the northeastern corner of Lake Van by the end of June, near the submerged town of Ercis.[1] However, rather than press onward as originally instructed, Bebutov would receive new orders from St. Petersburg to halt his advance in place and began digging in.

Another Russian detachment under Prince Ivan Andronikashvili would press against Reshid Pasha’s forces stationed in the hills west of Erzincan. His efforts were largely focused on tying down Turkish forces in the region, rather than making a concerted push in any particular direction. Despite this, the general weakness of the Ottoman defenders enabled relatively modest gains for the Russians along this front. Their largest drawbacks were constant supply shortages, which gave the Ottomans a slight advantage in firepower, but overall, the Russians still maintained the edge here. By the end of June, Prince Andronikashvili had managed to reach the outskirts of Gercanis, roughly 18 miles West from where he first started his campaign in April. Even still, he had succeeded in his primary objective, as Reshid Pasha and Selim Pasha were unable to send any significant reinforcements to assist in the defense of the Lazistan or the Van Eyalets.

The main Russian objective of the Anatolian front in 1856 was the Pontic coast, however, with the port of Trabzon being of particular importance to St. Petersburg given its status as a prominent commercial hub. As the Porte’s premier Black Seas port, it would provide Russia with great wealth and influence over all trade in the region if captured. The Ottoman commanders in the region recognized Russia’s interest in the port and had used the extended lull in the fighting to fortify the passes through the Pontic Mountains against the coming Russian offensive. But with their shattered armies and dreadful morale, there was little the beleaguered Ottomans could do in the face of the impending Russian juggernaut.


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The Port City of Trabzon

Beginning on the 10th of April, General Muravyov took 54,000 men northward and began his assault on the Pontic Coast. Despite significant support from the British Royal Navy and the Ottoman Black Seas Fleet, the port of Batumi would fall within a month’s time. The nearby town of Rize would also come under considerable pressure soon after. Like Batumi before it, Rize would surrender to the Russians after a month-long siege at the end of May. Muravyov’s attempts to take Trabzon, however, would encounter more resistance as the last battered remnants of Mehmed Pasha’s Army along with various British marines and sailors, and a number of Circassian, Crimean, Dagestani, and Lazi irregulars stood against them.

Moreover, the British Royal Navy and Ottoman Black Seas Fleet would position several ships off the coast of Trabzon. Despite the risk from Russian guns on land, the allied ships frequently bombarded the approaching Russian Army, effectively deterring any concentrated attempts to take the city by storm. Similarly, a constant stream of supply ships into and out of Trabzon’s harbor ensured that the city was well provisioned, mitigating the risk of it falling to starvation. Nevertheless, Muravyov was a tenacious general and continued the siege, steadily moving his lines forward, inch by inch over the course of several weeks. By mid-June, the threat to Trabzon was real enough that the British dispatched several regiments from the Balkans to help defend the city despite the perilous situation in Rumelia.

The arrival of these British soldiers in Trabzon would ironically coincide with a decisive shift in priorities by the Russian Government away from the Caucasus and Anatolia. Men and resources previously allocated to the Caucasus Front were now being drawn off to fight in other areas, with entire divisions now being recalled for service in the Balkans, the Baltic and Central Asia. Even General Muravyov was ordered northward to lead the upcoming Fall campaign against the Caucasian Imamate and the Circassian Confederacy. His departing address to his soldiers was brief and blunt, but still a highly emotional event for his soldiers who had come to respect and admire the Old Bear, General Muravyov.

Despite the great success for the Russians on the Anatolian front, it came to a quiet end in early July 1856. Barring Trabzon, all of Russia’s pre-war objectives for this front had been fulfilled and then some after two years of bitter fighting. As such few, if any, in St. Petersburg had the will or the interest to continue investing desperately needed resources into this theater, beyond what was necessary to hold their new gains. Tsar Nicholas was personally against a continued offensive into the increasingly Muslim countryside of Central Anatolia especially when more vital fronts like the Balkans needed further support. In truth, this decision had been made over the Winter; the continued success by Muravyov’s men in the Spring and Summer only quickened this process.

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The Anatolian Front in the Summer of 1856
As a result of this, Prince Mikhail Dmitrievich Gorchakov’s Army of the Danube would receive the bulk of Russia’s remaining resources in 1856. Reinforced with four newly raised Reserve Divisions, Gorchakov’s army was boosted well above three hundred thousand soldiers by the start of Spring Campaigning season. It would also receive priority over the other field armies for munitions and equipment, helping to sure up their lacking stockpiles of musket balls, cannon balls, powder, food, clothing, shoes and other commodities. A few of its units would even receive the newly minted Model 1856 Six Line Rifle-Muskets which had been rushed out of development to counter the British Enfields. Finally, Gorchakov was given free rein to expand the front to the entire stretch of the Danube from Silistra to the Iron Gates. With his army reinforced, resupplied, and redirected, Prince Gorchakov readied his men for the fight of their lives in late mid-April.

This year’s offensive in the Balkans would begin with another Russian assault on Silistra’s defenses by Count Alexander von Lüders’ Army of Moldavia, supported by General Karl Schilder’s extensive Corps of Artillery. Boasting over 400 cannons (mostly smaller calibers and older vintage guns), the Russian bombardment peppered the Allied lines with fire and iron in preparation for the Russian offensive. The ensuing attack on the 24th of April would be directed against the entirety of the Anglo-Ottoman line, probing it for vulnerabilities and searching for any openings. However, unlike the foolhardy attacks of the year prior, this onslaught would be a meticulous campaign meant to wear down the resolve and the strength of the Allied defenders over time. Although it would cost them a tremendous amount in blood, the Russians had blood enough to spare.

They need not try too hard, however, as the British rank and file were in dismal spirits by the start of 1856. Many of their comrades had died of cholera and typhus over the last year, while many more were sent to Scutari to recuperate or invalidated home before being unceremoniously discharged from the service. Several leading officers would abandon the Army under the guise of illness or injury, while others like the Duke of Cambridge were recalled for political reasons further weakening British morale and discipline.[2] The continuous skirmishing with the Russians over the Winter didn’t help either. Were it not for the stalwart leadership of General Brown, many of his men would have likely mutinied or deserted in the face of the looming Russian attack.


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British Soldiers “Celebrating” Another Year in Silistra

Defeatism was also quite rampant in the Turkish ranks as the continuous stream of bad news from Eastern Anatolia poured in over the Fall and Winter, destroying the already fragile Ottoman morale. Similarly, relations with London had soured immensely after they had coerced the Sublime Porte into ceding territory to the Kingdom of Greece. Although, the influx of additional British coin and weapons into the Ottoman Empire would help soothe the ruffled feathers in Constantinople, many of the Ottoman troops along the Danube were now distrustful of their British allies, whom they considered fair weather friends and opportunists. Despite this, many troops in the Ottoman Army remained committed to the war effort if for no other reason to defend their homes and their families. Some were motivated purely by spite, with the Poles largely fighting to injure the Russians after decades of oppression and persecution.

Fortunately, the Allies would receive a desperately needed boost in late April/early May with the arrival of the British 6th Infantry Division - the “Irish Division” - and the British Foreign Legions which would help restore the British Army’s flagging morale and strength. The British Army in the Balkans would in fact top 100,000 soldiers briefly before attrition and redeployments to India reduced it to around 68,000 men. Most of the British reinforcements would be stationed along the Danube front, with most being allocated to the defense of Silistra. A handful of regiments were sent to fortify the ports of Varna and Burgas, and the fortress of Shumen, while a brigade was sent to help defend the river crossings further west. The collapse of the Anatolian front the year prior, would also force General Brown to dispatch a few brigades of the British Foreign Legion eastwards to aid in the defense of Trabzon.

The Ottomans would also call up the garrisons of Thessaly, Epirus, and Serbia for field duty after the recent treaties with Serbia and Greece. Unfortunately, while these men were trained fighters, they were generally second-rate troops who had been relegated to guard duty and police work. They would also receive another 11,000 volunteers from Albania, Bosnia, North Africa, and the Levant, but nearly two thirds were directed to the Anatolian front, providing little assistance to Omar Pasha. Moreover, these men were Bashi-bazouks, undisciplined mobs more interested in plunder and personal glory than victory or strategic gains. Despite their rowdiness, the Porte could not turn these men away when it desperately needed bodies to hold the line against Russia.

Through some miracle, the Anglo-Ottoman lines outside Silistra held against Count Lüders’ attack as they rushed these new arrivals into the fray. In doing so, however, they had fallen for Prince Gorchakov’s trap as Lüders’ offensive was merely the anvil to Gorchakov’s hammer. As this offensive was taking place, Prince Gorchakov dispatched the Russian Army of Wallachia under General Fyodor Sergeevich Panyutin to force additional crossings upriver. General Dannenberg and the Russian 4th Corps would resume their offensive from last year, marching on Silistra from the village of Tutrakan. Simultaneously, the 2nd Reserve Division under General Alexander Adlberberg and the 3rd Reserve Division under General General Wilhelm Bussau would move against the cities of Vidin and Oryakhana respectively. However, General Panyutin’s true hammer blow would fall on the fortress city of Ruse.[3]

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The City of Ruse in the early 19th Century

The city of Ruse was a major port along the Danube river, serving as both a prominent trade hub in the region and a crossroads for all traffic going up and down and across the Danube. Most importantly it sat on the road between Bucharest and Constantinople, giving it incredible value to both sides. As a result of its strategic location; Romans/Byzantines, Bulgarians, and Ottomans alike would all invest much into securing this region against any northern aggressors. Under the Ottomans, Ruse developed a thriving shipbuilding industry and quickly became their chief administrative center along the lower stretch of the Danube.

Like Silistra, Varna and Shumen, it had been heavily fortified during the 1830’s and early 1840’s seeing the construction of several polygonal fortresses outside the city’s medieval walls, which were themselves updated and expanded as well. It also boasted a sizeable garrison prior to the war, with two regiments of infantry and a regiment of artillery for a total of 8,000 soldiers. However, the War would see the infantry regiments drawn away to aid in the defense of Silistra, reducing Ruse’s garrison by more than two thirds. Fortunately, the garrison would be reinforced with the arrival of troopers from Thessaly and Serbia along with volunteers from Macedonia and Albania boosting their number well above 5,000 just in time for Russian General Stepan Khrulev’s attack on the 1st of May.

The attack by General Khrulev’s Russian 2nd Corps would meet with some moderate success initially as the Russians quickly reclaimed the Wallachian island of Ciobanu which had been had captured by Omar Pasha at the very start of this War. However, their efforts to reach the walls of Ruse would be repelled after a fierce firefight as the Ottoman garrison released a small fleet of boats and barges to disrupt the Russian crossing here. Eventually, the Russians would cross the river, but here they fell into an Ottoman trap as Ruse's riverside defenses were especially strong, with dozens of cannons and carefully prepared kill-zones which cut the Russian vanguard to ribbons. Unable to make much progress against Ruse, General Khrulev dispatched the 1st Infantry and 2nd Grenadier Divisions to force another crossing further West near the port of Sistova (Svishtov).

Unlike at Ruse, the Russian crossing at Sistova would meet with much more success as the town was only protected by a company of Turkish soldiers stationed at old Tsarnevets castle. As was the case in 1810 and 1829, the Russian soldiers quickly stormed the castle’s medieval walls, brushing aside the undermanned and unprepared Ottoman garrison with relative ease. With a firm beachhead across the Danube now secured, Khrulev released the 1st Uhlan Division to fan out across the countryside, searching for any Turkish pickets on the road to Ruse. When they returned with no such news, Khrulev ordered his Corps across the Danube, leaving the 4th Division behind to screen Ruse from the North. Seven days later on the 15th of May, Khrulev’s Corps would reconverge outside the southern outskirts of Ruse, effectively surrounding it from all sides.

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Russian Soldiers crossing the Danube near Ruse

Whilst Ruse’s defenses were quite robust, aided as they were by the swift Danube currents and months of preparation; the city’s garrison was still quite undermanned, numbering only 5,671 men at this point, compared to the nearly 68,000 Russians gathered outside their walls. In spite of these tremendous odds, the Ottoman garrison was able to resist the Russian onslaught for several days. Moreover, Khrulev’s siege lines were not air tight during the first few days of the siege, enabling Ottoman messengers to escape to Silistra.

Word about Ruse’s plight would soon reach the ears of Omar Pasha and General Brown, but given their own dire situation at Silistra, there was little the Allied Commanders could do. They simply lacked the resources to counteract Lüders’ ongoing offensive from the East, Dannenberg’s continued push from the West, and now this maneuver by Khrulev against Ruse. Nevertheless, they endeavored to send whatever help they could to Ruse, but their effort would come too late. With Ruse surrounded, Khrulev steadily chipped away at the Ottoman defenses, until finally, on the 5th of June he released his entire Corps upon the city of Ruse. The defenders fought desperately, but eventually succumbed to the insatiable tide of the Russians, leading to their surrender.

With Ruse’s fall, the Russians had gained a major junction across the Danube, albeit one that was further West than they would have preferred. Nevertheless, its capture provided an alternative to Silistra, enabling the Russians to ferry over large quantities of men and munitions unhindered. It also forced the already beleaguered British and Ottomans to stretch their forces even further to defend their now dangerously exposed western flank, lest Panyutin's Army march on Constantinople unopposed. After a week’s pause to rest his forces, General Khrulev directed his cavalry southward towards Tarnovo and westward against Pleven, inciting the local Bulgarians to revolt as they went.

Several days later, General Panyutin would send word to Khrulev instructing him to travel eastward with his Corps and link up with General Dannenberg’s 4th Corps. Thereafter, they would converge on Silistra from both the West and South, cut its supply lines, and finally surround the city. Unfortunately for Panyutin, a deserter from the Russian camp, believed to be a Polish officer, leaked much of this battleplan to Omar Pasha and General Brown. Although the exact extent of the Russian operation was unknown to them, they recognized that they would be doomed if Panyutin’s Army was allowed to reach Silistra uncontested. Despite the risk, they knew that this was their last chance to force the Russians back. Pinning everything on this next campaign, both Omar Pasha and General Brown opted to march out of Silistra and face the Russians head on.


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Ottoman Soldiers Receive their New Orders

The Ottoman Army of Rumelia, under Omar Pasha would sally out against Count Lüders’ Host, holding it in place whilst General Brown’s Balkan Expeditionary Force would march against General Dannenberg’s 4th Corps - which was dangerously exposed - and destroy it before it could rejoin with the rest of Panyutin’s army. Setting out on the 9th of June, Brown’s Army would catch Dannenberg by surprise outside the village of Vitren. In the ensuing battle, the Russian 4th Corps would be thoroughly defeated by the British, but in spite of its extensive losses - losing over a quarter of its men to death, desertion, or capture – Dannenberg’s Corps would manage to retreat in relatively good order. Opting to pursue it, General Brown and the British Army would chase the fleeing 4th Corps for the next four days, fighting a series of skirmishes and minor engagements with the Russian rearguard before finally catching them near the hamlet of Ryakhovo located on the banks of the Danube.

With Dannenberg’s men now trapped between the British Army and the Danube, General Brown hoped to smash them to pieces and then turn his attention to Khrulev’s 2nd Corps. Unfortunately, much of his own army had become strung out across the countryside over the last few days, leaving him with three divisions (1st, 4th, and 6th) to fight against four weakened Russian divisions. Whilst he initially contemplated waiting for the rest of his army to catch up, time was now against him as his scouts reported that Panyutin’s Army of Wallachia had left Ruse and was now marching to Dannenberg’s aid. Spurred on to crush Dannenberg’s weakened Corps before the rest of the Russian Army arrived, General Brown ordered an immediate attack on the Russian position.

Despite their dire predicament, the Russians were in relatively good spirits, and held their ground against the advancing British for several hours. As the day progressed, the fighting grew more desperate as the veteran Highlander Brigade smashed through the thin Russian line in multiple places. While it seemed as if the battle was lost for the Russians, a steady stream of reinforcements began arriving on scene, jumping straight into the battle to aid their embattled comrades. After force marching for eight hours straight, General Panyutin and the vanguard of the Army of Wallachia had arrived at Ryakhovo.

By this time, most of the British Army had also converged on Ryakhovo, bringing the two forces to a rough parity once again as much of the Russian 2nd Corps was still absent from the battlefield. With the half of the Russian Army still away from the battlefield, General Brown remained committed to the fight and pressed his men to keep pushing as dusk began to settle over the bloody plain. The fighting would only end as the thick darkness of night descended on the battlefield, resulting in several incidents of friendly fire on both sides. Although total victory had eluded Brown, the possibility still remained for the British to inflict a great blow upon the Russians and drive them from Rumelia.

When dawn broke the following morning, it was Brown and the British who took the offensive yet again, hoping to break through the Russian line before their reinforcements arrived. The battle that followed would be relatively even for much of the day, with a slight edge given to the British owing to their superior rifles and cannons. However, once again Russian reinforcements continued to arrive as the day wore on, turning the tide against the British. No matter their personal valor, nor their great weapons of war, the British were simply being overwhelmed by the sheer number of Russian soldiers facing off against them. No matter how many men they shot down, another would eventually emerge to take their place. Eventually, the unending waves of Russian men began to exhaust the thin red line. As dusk began to fall over the battlefield, General Brown recalled his men and made preparations for a third day of fighting.


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The British Advance against the Russians at Ryakhovo

By the end of the second day of Ryakhovo, almost all of the Russian Army of Wallachia had assembled opposite the British, bringing their total strength to nearly 142,000 soldiers. All told, Brown’s Army of 64,000 men was outnumbered by more than 2 to 1. With his opportunity of victory lost, Brown elected to take the defensive on the third day at Ryakhovo; his men would make the Russians pay for every inch of dirt they took. General Panyutin was more than willing to oblige him, ordering a dawn offensive against the weakening British.

As the Russian soldiers approached the British line, the British artillery released a cannonade of grapeshot upon the advancing Russians, ripping their advance echelons to shreds. Entire units were wiped out, while regiments were decimated as mounds of bodies began to litter the battlefield. Within a few brief moments, over 4,000 Russians had fallen to the British artillery and rifle fire. It wasn’t enough as the Russians kept advancing. Eventually, the Russian infantry reached the thin British line and began to inflict their revenge upon their oppressors. The vicious melee that followed would see both sides suffer extensively, but outnumbered as they were, the British were gradually losing ground. At around noon, after five hours of bitter fighting, the Russians finally punched through the British center, forcing General Brown to order a retreat.

General Panyutin was not inclined to let the British flee unmolested, however, and immediately ordered his cavalry to pursue them. As the 1st Uhlan Division and a division of Don Cossacks came into sight, all remaining discipline within the British Army collapsed, leading to a general rout. The Russian horsemen gazed upon the terrified Britons with devilish delight and whipped their ponies into a hellish frenzy. Cutting down stragglers and foolhardy heroes as they went, their trot quickly turned into an all-out charge as they chased the fleeing British soldiers. Desperate to escape the coming cavalry, many Englishmen threw themselves into the Danube, choosing a watery grave to a Cossack's torture.

They are only spared from total annihilation by the sacrifice of the British Heavy Brigade which counter charged the approaching Russian cavalry with a thunderous roar, blunting its attack with a great and awesome fury. For the better part of an hour, the Heavy Brigade fought a bitter war of attrition with the Russian horsemen. Aided by their thick wool coats, their large chargers, and the rather dull weapons and small ponies of their Russian adversaries, the British cavalrymen suffered relatively few casualties initially, while they in turn inflicted gruesome losses on their opponents. It was only when General Panyutin ordered his infantry into the fray that the British cavalry were decimated. With bayonets fixed, the Russian soldiers speared the poor British horses, killing them from underneath their riders and without their steeds, the men of the Heavy Brigade were quickly cut down, bringing an end to the Battle of Ryakhovo.


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Charge of the Heavy Brigade

Overall, the battle of Ryakhovo was a decisive Russian victory as the British Army was effectively broken as a threat, losing over a third of its men in the battle with most of their losses coming on the third day of battle. However, this victory had only been won at an enormous cost for the Russians. Over the three days of fighting, nearly 17,800 Russians lay dead or dying, another 41,300 were wounded, and nearly 11,000 were captured or missing. Moreover, the Army of Wallachia’s Cavalry contingent was utterly gutted after their prolonged fight with the British Heavy Brigade, losing more than half their number in the scuffle. Nevertheless, with the British Army finally defeated, the road to Silistra was thrown open and after two days of rest, Panyutin’s Army set out in pursuit late on the 19th of June.

Back in Silistra, the Ottomans met with some moderate success, holding their ground against Count Luder’s Army of Moldavia and even driving it back in some places. However, with the defeat of the British at Ryakhovo, the situation in Silistra was now untenable. Racing ahead of his army, General Brown would meet with Omar Pasha, informing him of his defeat and advising him to immediately abandon Silistra before the Russians surrounded them. Despite his great reluctance to do so, Omar Pasha agreed with the merits of Brown’s suggestion and ordered the evacuation of Silistra. Anything of value in the city was to be destroyed, buried, or carted off by the retreating Anglo-Ottoman Army; they would leave nothing of value to the Russians.

When the British Army finally arrives at Silistra later that evening, they are immediately ordered to destroy their precious railroad, spike their heavier siege guns, and set out for the Balkan Mountains as fast as they were able, from where they would establish a new defensive front. For the next few hours, a great dread hovers over Silistra as the Anglo-Ottoman Army desperately scrambled to vacate the city before the Russians arrived. Fortunately for the Allies, news of Panyutin’s victory over the British at Ryakhovo would prompt excessive celebration within Lüders’ camp. Soldiers and officers alike ate, drank, and sang well into the night, reveling in their comrades’ great victory. They would only awaken late in the morning of the 21st, by which time most of the Allied host had already evacuated Silistra. When the Russian Army finally stirred from its trenches and began moving into Silistra around mid-afternoon, it would discover an abandoned city.

The Fall of Silistra and Ruse would mark the effective end to any remaining Ottoman interest in this terrible war. In their eyes, the war was now completely lost. Their northern and eastern defenses had been captured and their armies had been smashed to pieces. Further resistance at this point would only result in further losses now and further concessions in the ensuing peace treaty. Despite British pleas to continue fighting, no amount of British coin or shipments of British weapons would convince them otherwise. On the 30th of June, Ottoman envoys arrived in the Russian camp outside Silistra requesting a ceasefire, but to their horror, they would learn from Prince Gorchakov that his eminence, Tsar Nicholas was not yet interested in peace. The war would continue.

Next Time: Coalition

[1] The old city of Ercis was steadily submerged by the rising waters of Lake Van over the course of the 18th Century, until it was completely submerged by the middle of the 19th Century.
[2] In OTL, nearly all the original British Division commanders and many of their deputies left the army for home. Some were genuinely sick or wounded like Sir George de Lacy Evans and the Duke of Cambridge, but many simply made-up excuses to leave the Crimea.
[3] The city of Ruse formed a part of the Ottoman Quadrangle, a series of fortress cities comprised of Ruse, Silistra, Shumen and Varna. These fortifications were made at the suggestion of Helmuth von Moltke in OTL and were largely built by local Bulgarians laborers. They were incredibly strong fortifications that even managed to repel the Russians in 1877 for several months, despite being severely outdated by that time.
Wonderful update ! The end is no surprise, now the tsar knows his enemies are weakened, he will push on the advantage
 
I wonder how this impacts New Zealand. A British Army collapsing and the Indian Mutiny really diverts any attention from NZ but that being said, the land wars were not really a thing in the 1850s, as that was more just settler and Maori consolidation, respectively. Things started heating up at the end of the decade as it became clearer confrontation was likely/necessary over land (depending on one's perspective), which on the British side meant that the governor started building up Imperial forces.

ITTL it seems that most of the small garrison would have left for India or the Middle East before the build up got underway. This would undermine the Governor and the settler government's confidence in pushing things with Maori. So perhaps less escalation?

In terms of settlement, the big pre Gold Rushes numbers started to creep up by the end of the 1850s - getting up to 10k per year by 1859. This might carry on, or it might drop off a little as a lot of this was sponsored. Is the money there either from the Provincial governments or Britain? Maybe not.

But the big driver, the Gold Rushes, could happen at anytime really, instead of early 1860s.

So I think in the short term, this probably helps North Island Maori to retain their position a bit longer and perhaps that helps them mitigate or avoid the Land Wars. The downside is that it might just delay things or even aggravate. As it is too late to stop British settlement of the South Island and once gold is discovered, the South Island population and wealth will sky rocket and then it will become increasingly hard to stop the wider settler government of NZ from wanting to encroach. I suspect also there will be a lot of British soldiers wanting to move out from UK and perhaps also some government distraction?

The big What If is India though, as the NZ and Australian colonial economies were tightly interwoven into the Indian colonial economy. If India falls then that helps undercut the former's economic development. If the war carries on, it probably helps? If just because Britain will be buying loads of supplies (food, uniforms, horses, tack etc).
 
You know there seems like there’s two logical political beliefs that the British People might adopt post war. The first is isolationism but I can’t see such a movement gaining much steam considering how many and how far spread their holdings across the globe. But it is possible that they just turtle up with what they already have and ignore the world for a bit.

The second and more likely option IMO is the Empire swings even more militaristic than OTL. The problem wasn’t with the intervention but with the lack of Manpower. And the solution is something similar to the foreign legion and the compromise they made with the Irish but on a more “native” level. Chinese peasants recruited from Hong Kong, Indian Sepoys going abroad with their permission once that issue gets cleared up, a foreign legion with recruits from every continent. I can see them becoming quite aggressive and intervention happy when they get back to full strength.

Two other things that strike me. The Ottomans can’t pay back the British, but the British will demand recompense. I wonder if that will come in the form of land the British use to power protect against a French Egypt. Cyprus and/or Anatolian land might be possible.

The second is I can’t see a beaten Britain being okay giving up any land, even something as minor as the mosquito coast. I know you don’t wanna get bogged down in the America’s which I support. But this seems like a small butterfly that won’t have any other effect besides it being a minor increase in tension between the US and the UK.

Edit: I suppose I should also add that the British publics political view might stay relatively stable as far as foreign policy goes. I just don’t see it as likely after this big of an embarrassment is all.
 
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I wonder if Russia will get recognition for control over Galicia in return for not taking Constantinople or bits of Bulgaria.
It is also interesting to note that the Polish question has become simpler with Austria out of the question. I almost see a natural alliance between Polish nationalism and the Hapsburgs. In a Austro-Prussian War I could see the Hapsburgs not only retaking Silesia but also a rump Posen under a Hapsburg prince in perpetration for an independent Hapsburg Poland.
 
Two other things that strike me. The Ottomans can’t pay back the British, but the British will demand recompense. I wonder if that will come in the form of land the British use to power protect against a French Egypt. Cyprus and/or Anatolian land might be possible.
I mean, they can, but Britain sure as hell can't really get it back. They didn't exactly cover themselves in glory here, what with them selling off chunks of the Ottomans without even asking them, barely contributing any troops, said troops being inept and led by idiots....

TO say nothing about that Sepoy mutiny. They might want repayment, but the Ottomans can retort that maybe they should've actually tried fighting the war, and not focused on making the Ottomans do it for them.
 
The Ottomans won't want to provoke Britain to much though, they'll still need a reliable ally no matter their their feelings about this war and Britain is still their best bet. Austria's dead, Hungary is no where near sufficient, France is to focused on the Rhine after TTL's Franco-Prussian War, and ditto for Germany but add a highly decentralized and unstable mess of a government to boot. If Britain demands Cyprus as debt repayment and threatens to leave the Ottomans to their fate if they refuse (or outright seize the island as the RN could do so easily) the Porte would have no choice but acquiesce.
 
Looks like a decisive Russian victory in the Crimean/Great Eurasian War is apparent, though I will agree with others that given the title of the next chapter I presume diplomatic pressure from France and Austria will keep the Russians reined in. The question is: what will St. Petersburg push for?

Full freedom from Ottoman suzerainty for the Romanian principalities seems likely, though I am unfamiliar enough with Romanian history to not be sure how this would impact it; same applies to the Serbs. I can also see the Russians enforcing some autonomy for northern Bulgarian regions, though the extent of that is debatable for several reasons:
  • Putting a Bulgarian entity in control of the Dobrudja would secure the Danube Estuary under a Russian proxy while denying it to the Ottomans, but would likely irritate the Romanians. (The reverse goes for placing it under Romanian control.)
  • Any Bulgarian sovereignty near the Aegean and in Macedonia is likely out of the question, lest the Russians alienate their covert proxies/allies in the Greeks (and turn them firmly to the British camp).
  • Threatening Ottoman Thrace too much will be seen as politically unacceptable by both the Ottomans themselves, the U.K., and whatever other powers intervene in the interest of propping up the Empire against Russia.
Eastern Anatolia is most interesting in my eyes. Do the Russians keep the front lines where they are, keeping the Erzincan Valley and the northern shore of Lake Van but abandoning the port at Trebizond? Or do they offer some concessions inland in exchange for a very nice warm-water port on the southern Black Sea, leaving some of the Armenians in their occupation zone out to dry but taking in more Greeks and a territory easier to administer than the partisan-ridden highlands of eastern Anatolia?

I feel there are arguments to be made for both, and it's possible the Russians could offer concessions in the West (which the Western powers and Ottomans probably care more about, and the Russians have under a greater threat) to make or keep more gains in the East at the negotiating table. Then you have the oncoming alt-Hamidian Massacres, which will color those decisions even more strongly.

It will also be interesting seeing how the Persians and Indian rebels fare in the oncoming peace/post-peace period, and assuming the French will be one of the parties applying pressure on the Russians, what they demand in exchange for helping stop the war. Recognition of Persian conquests? Expanded holdings in southern India (possibly in exchange for helping quell the revolt there)? The Indian rebels seem doomed in the long run, but it is possible in my eyes that the Persians manage to make good on their opportunism.
 
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For once I want to read a Russian Victory in the Crimean War, and this has come close even if it's being set up like as a "Snatching Defeat from the Jaws of Victory". Hope the Russians win though.
 
For once I want to read a Russian Victory in the Crimean War, and this has come close even if it's being set up like as a "Snatching Defeat from the Jaws of Victory". Hope the Russians win though.
I don’t doubt it’s a Russian victory at this point. But I do think that Russia is going to have to accept less on the Western front than they would have gotten if they had taken the Ottomans up on their original peace treaty request. The only major country set up to be friendly to Russia currently is Prussia. Austria and Hungry really don’t like them currently, France and the Italian states have zero desire for a The Black Sea to be a Russian Lake or for the Russians to control the straits. Sweden-Norway is eager to take something if they can.

So Russia wins but not as complete a victory as they’d like. And I can’t image any of the Eastern European powers, Prussia included, is pleased with Russia essentially taking Galicia like they have. That’s the biggest question mark I have going into this Peace negotiation. Do you make it independent under an Austrian Prince? Let Russia keep it but pay reparations to Austria? Let them keep it but give up land elsewhere? Give it back to Austria even if their hold on the land is laughable?

Personally I’m expecting something like an Austrian Prince who is subservient to the Tsar, but likely not as much as he’d like them to be. I’m very interested in how the Ruthenians would be treated and adapt to that situation. We could see the Prince pushing Polish culture onto them, trying to include them in a larger Galician identity, or do nothing with them and focus on the Poles. Regardless if/when Poland forms it might keep all of that territory.
 
Personally I’m expecting something like an Austrian Prince who is subservient to the Tsar, but likely not as much as he’d like them to be. I’m very interested in how the Ruthenians would be treated and adapt to that situation. We could see the Prince pushing Polish culture onto them, trying to include them in a larger Galician identity, or do nothing with them and focus on the Poles. Regardless if/when Poland forms it might keep all of that territory.
I second this, and this gives me a stupid idea. An semi-independent Kingdom of Galicia-Lodomeria under a Habsburg Prince (I'd suggest Archduke Karl Ferdinand) but a virtual puppet of Tsar Nikolai I, but in reality is anything but, creating a Galician identity, which could built around either Polish or Ruthenian, I assume the demographics were fairly close enough up until the twilight of that kingdom to pretty much make an attempt. But (and this is why I call it stupid), make it built around a Greek Catholic faith.
 
Going into Macedonia and to Thessalonike would really piss off the Greeks, no doubt, but with the Anglo-Turkish army in their back, that doesn't make sense.

At this point, the war is practically won, and if the Tsar needed any comforting in this idea, the Turkish peace offer was telling enough. The Russians might go for Constantinople, the wildest of Russian dreams, but we are now in a phase that will decide how the peace treaty is going to play out and how the Balkans are going to play out for the next half century, and I suspect Tsar Nicholas will want to move his pawns here.

Based on the results of the OTL war of 1877-1878, it's practically guaranteed Romanian principalities will become independent, and Bulgaria will be established as an autonomous principality. How close to San Stefano borders, that remains to be seen. Contrary to OTL, with the British on the wrong side of the negotiating table, the revision of San Stefano borders is going to be less easy, but since these would piss off pretty much everyone in the Balkans except the Russians and their allies, especially the Greeks and the Serbs, each with their own designs on Thrace and Macedonia despite the previous treaties, and Hungary because it won't like being surrounded by Russian proxies. In the end, I'd see something combining the OTL principality of Bulgaria and the autonomous province of Eastern Rumelia instead of it being forcibly annexed in 1885.

In the Caucasus, I don't see the Russians expanding much more than they did in 1878. The thing is simply that without the control of Trabzon and its port, and without railroads, Erzincan and Erzurum are going to be untenable in the long run. Instead, it's more likely they willl be used as a bargaining chip in peace treaty negotiations, and the Russian border will be expanded a bit to accomodate a strong defensive position and a good launching pad for future invasions if need be.

As for Galicia, in all good logics, the Russians will annex it in the end. The Austrians don't have the means to hold it, and the Russians will never cede it to Hungary, or even let it become an autonomous Polish principality, even less since they are winning the war. How that happens is another matter, and if I am to risk a guess, I'd say the Russians will technically 'purchase' it, but the British would be required to pay the bill as part of the peace treaty.

Just an unknown to me, Central Asia and Persia. Since it has been quite a while we didn't hear directly about what happens in India, it's difficult to judge. But if I'm keeping on with the tsar advancing his pawns logic, at the same time they are having their big success in the Balkans, it would be natural to see a counter offensive in Central Asia to recover lost ground and coerce local rulers back into the fold, especially as the British are busy putting down the Indian revolt. Also, with Persia a virtual co-belligerent, Afghanistan might be at play, but I have difficulty imagining the Russians making it this far south in time.
 
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