Pride Goes Before a Fall: A Revolutionary Greece Timeline

[formion]

Excellent analysis @A_simple_pilgrim!

Populations doubled in many parts of Europe between 1850 and 1900; Greece need not be exempt from that and can probably manage numbers better than Germany or England, considering their relative depopulation compared to their current prosperity.

Exactly! For example, Thessaly has lower population density than the Old Greece and much good agricultural land available. In newly annexed Thessaly there are 18,000 hectares of marshes, while 120,000 hectares were damaged by marsh overflows during the winter (I have sources for these numbers, but unfortunately in greek). Compare this figure for 510,000 hectares as the total agricultural land of Thessaly (after the OTL land reclamations). Not to mention that malaria was the main killer back then.

While Thessaly was the main location of marshes, almost all the greek littoral was covered by them. The Pamisos, Agrinio, Elis and Arta plains all suffered from floods and malaria. There were also multiple marshes in plateaus, such as Lake Xynias in central Greece and the Feneos Marsh in Corinth.

Now if we divide all this land with 4 hectare plots to landless peasants in the case of irrigated land and 8 hectares of non-irrigated land, then there is enough land for many more people. Land & lack of malaria=population boom , even if the rest of the economy remains stagnant.

If malaria was the main killer in the countryside, typhus, cholera and typhoid were the main killers in the urban centers (mostly Athens, Piraeus, Ermoupoli and Patras in OTL). As it happens Karatheodory and his team are currently working on the very same diseases in Constantinople. Any breakthroughs there, or even just experience will result in much fewer urban deaths back in Greece.

Now that hundreds of thousands of prime Turkish men have died or been removed from the board, Turkish manpower will be in the hole for years and will probably take a decade to recover.

Indeed, having lost hundreds of thousands of men due to battle, disease or cold (in the case of the OTL Caucasus campaign) will have a significant demographic impact.

I also expect the civilian muslim population to horribly suffer due to the war, as the battles take place in muslim-majority regions. In the Balkans the Ruse, Varna, Tulcea sanjaks had muslim majorities. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Danube_Vilayet

At the Asiatic Front, the Erzurum Vilayet had muslim majority as well. While outright killings by russian bullets and bayonets will be only a small minority of the overall civilian deaths, disease and famine will ravage these regions as much it ravaged the fighting armies. If Russia annexes the Erzrum vilayet and part of the Trabzon vilayet, then a lot of the survivors will migrate to the Ottoman Empire, while some will stay back in their ancestral lands. In any case, it seems that the civilian population will suffer and the Ottoman Empire will lose hundreds of thousands of civilians in addition to enlisted men.

 

[Knightmare]

Now unto our sole losers. The poor, poor ottomans. It must be honestly depressing to live in a country that is constantly losing and coming closer and closer to collapse for a century. I obviously want the Greeks and others in the empire to succeed against the Ottomans, but the Ottomans have become a clear underdog, and it's hard to want to kick the underdog. I guess I have to comfort myself by sleeping on my pile of Drachmas earned from the war.

That actually might offer some possibilites in the future. A Greece further down the line, raised on propaganda of how "weak" the Ottomans are, decides to go full Megali Idea, only to find the Ottomans are 110% done with being mocked and defeated, and proceed to remind everyone that while they're not as strong as they once were, they're not without teeth.

Plus, there's probably also a sense of them feeling they have no way out, given too many more victories might lead to them being dismembered and destroyed....

"The cornered rat will bite the cat."
— Japanese proverb

 

[goumaister]

I wonder after the Galicia taxation about the Austrian responce. Will it be just strong words and hand wavering or something more, like let's say a diplomatic move inside the German Empire to stand up and defeat those barbarians! Will it be easy to persuade the Prussians who are now at the Russian frontier to join a war or at least threaten one if Galicia is not returned? This is a chance for the German politician to truly unite under the banner against a neighboring foe. Or maybe not of that and they just sit in their corner and wait this out.

I have no additions to make for France really they are dealt a glorious hand let's see how they use it. I really don't think either Hungary or Sweden will join this war unless the whole German awakening happens which doubtful. Both Russia and Britain are a precarious financial situation although the latter can very well rebounce rather easily unlike the former. Russia is seriously behind in industrialization and their economy is built on their agriculture which is broken by the blockade and the recruitment of so many men ,although the latter not in the same degree of damage but still accountable. As others said a Russian victory will not wake them from these problems and they might find themselves soon enough in front of a revolution or a large unrest.

The Ottoman side is fully covered by everyone here. Even if they find a Napoleon in their generals they have already lost this war. Egypt's civil war I hope leads to an Ismail victory and a fast one at that , maybe with a swift French intervention aided by the Egyptian army in order to secure their interests in Egypt from those pesky British. A young leader there could do better than an older one and thrust Egypt to true independence with a great Empire on its future ,maybe some of Sudan or/and Libya as well as a Arabian unification. Greece is a victor of this war but this should be used carefully cause all this new land needs vast investments which if not done correctly could lead to a financial problem. But even so they have their future in their hands unlike OTL which is nice to see. I do hope that their population explodes by the end of the century and reach to 5-6 million on their own lands, without counting what they will get or Greeks outside current borders. The industrial revolution is not yet though and a lot of money is needed for all those expansions in infrastructure , schools both in and out of Greece , universities, hospitals, roads, railroads etc. Although admittedly this will be helped by all this smuggling if the smugglers are willing to invest in their country.

We await the end of this war with great anticipation! Keep being awesome Earl!

 

[Rheinbund]

Part of the treaty Greece signed with Great Britain involved a review of Greece's debts, which will more than likely result in the forgiveness or lowering of some of their current debts.

If some of their debts are forgiven, it will be a great boom for the Greek situation. In this period, one of the main expenditures of a government is debt interest, and often it's forced to loan money to pay interest or pay its debt, so a good part of the budget is detached from the national economy. Even if it represents a small part of their obligations, it will still free them of expenditure and reduce the debt burden.

At the same time, Greece sells a lot of stuff to the British armies and the Russians resulting in an influx of money, with their territorial gains and the fact that they are in peace and their enemy in trouble. It seems that the situation in Greece is secure coupled to a lower amount of debt (or a lesser interest rate) if they play their card well with England or even France. (if the French bet on the Egyptian they will surely woo the Greeks to have them on their side, to make an attack from the Ottoman against the Egyptian less likely (to avoid a two-front war) greek could even ask for some french military advisor to help the modernization of the army. French fight Algerians chief and faced a tremendous conflict a few time ago they have many veterans that could help). Their new interest rate from their loan will be lower with a competent minister they can even borrow money to pay off some of their old loans.

The Greek government, therefore, found itself in a healthy financial situation, allowing them to invest massively in the newly conquered territory to improve their value.

Furthermore, some merchant will make a fortune with trade and smuggling, allowing to increase their capital.

The government may supervise the establishment of agricultural banking institutions since they will have the capital to do it. The state could even in the future take a more important part of their loan from their bank or Government bonds with a good interest rate, reducing their dependence abroad and reducing interest rates. This money will be paid back mainly to Greek citizens allowing the money to circulate in the country and improving the capital of those who bought treasury bonds.

Taking a loan to invest instead of paying interest loans will have a wonder on the greek economy. It seems that the greek merchant will also be the principal winner of this situation. Greece has a friendly relation with great power and is well suited to trade. Furthermore, they will have access to a new market (conquered territories), many greek ports will be improved, facilitating business, they will receive an influx in the capital, increasing their weight in the government affair and energizing the country.

Egypt's situation is difficult due to the civil war, however, the heir is backed by France that will surely help him. The French need to keep Egypt on their side since they are interested in the Canal of Suez (it will be a great boom for the Greek merchant, they will have access to the Indians good that they could sell to Russia, allowing them to make some benefice.

Great Britain situation, if they lose in Egypt, will not be a huge problem (France in this period and Napoleon II want to keep a friendly relation with them. (They will surely stay quiet on the matter to improve their relationship with them.) The Ottoman Empire will become vital for them, so they will surely invest and help the Ottoman Empire to stay alive and reform after this defeat. It seems evident that many lessons will be learned and that they will prepare for around 2. Many people talk about a Greek conquering Constantinople soon but don't forget that the Ottoman Empire, still has a large population, a powerful backer, and revanchism, so the situation will be more difficult for Greece than many think. Greece needs time to reorganize their army and their territory.

P.S: Personally if the Suez canal is still built I hope the Egyptians will not sell their part. It will be a nice boom to their economy if they keep them.

 

[Duke of Orlando]

I’m not sure that I agree with the idea that the UK will still be the ottomans benefactor after this debacle. They might be but it’s far from certain. From their perspective they provided the material and the money while the ottomans just needed to provide warm bodies to beat men with Muskets, little artillery, and less ammo. And they couldn’t hold up their end of the bargain. What use are they? A check on a French Egypt bit that can be gained in other ways. I don’t expect the Brits to abandon them Necessarily but I wouldn’t expect much more then token support for a couple decades. I expect the British will instead turn to Europe for its anti Russia partnerships. Scandinavia, Hungry, Austria, and (less so) Prussia all have claims or wants of Russian territory. Or they could try to make Poland The Greece of Russia. Theirs a lot of options besides the terminally ill man of Europe.

 

[E_x_c_u_b_i_t_o_r_e]

I’m not sure that I agree with the idea that the UK will still be the ottomans benefactor after this debacle. They might be but it’s far from certain. From their perspective they provided the material and the money while the ottomans just needed to provide warm bodies to beat men with Muskets, little artillery, and less ammo. And they couldn’t hold up their end of the bargain. What use are they? A check on a French Egypt bit that can be gained in other ways. I don’t expect the Brits to abandon them Necessarily but I wouldn’t expect much more then token support for a couple decades. I expect the British will instead turn to Europe for its anti Russia partnerships. Scandinavia, Hungry, Austria, and (less so) Prussia all have claims or wants of Russian territory. Or they could try to make Poland The Greece of Russia. Theirs a lot of options besides the terminally ill man of Europe.

Prussia and Austria? There's nothing for them to achieve by allying with the Brits. Austria already lost her lands on the east with the exception of the lands around Poland. If Austria joins, the only land compensation it'll get is around the Grand duchy of Warsaw if it doesn't become independent. Prussia? The only lands they'll get is the same and probably the lands around the baltic coasts. Its gonna be them that will have to fight the majority of the Russian armies (Well also Hungary if they join the coalition they most certainly will if they're confident).

The Brits gains everything it wants in curbing Russian influence if it succeeds but they'll take minor damage for such a coalition. Meanwhile its allies will most certainly have massive casualties for such an event.

The best course of actions for Prussia, Russia and Austria is to be as neutral or ally as possible. Its in their best interest to be at peace, waging wars on eastern europe has always been bloody for them so recreating their old agreements or even an alliance is always the better option.

 

[A_simple_pilgrim]

I also agree that no one in Europe will join that dumpster fire of a war at this point. Maybe in the first year or two, but now that everyone has seen how deadly and damaging it is for all parties involved? There's no way that the recently emasculated austrians, who are probably desperately looking for a way to become a great power again, or the germans, less than a decade out from the madness of 1848, will intervene against the Russians.

Also, some people have mentioned the demographic effects of the Ottomans losing 100k+ more men than they did OTL during the crimean war, but it really won't be that big of an impact. Realistically, loss of soldiers does not impact population growth, loss of civilians, specifically women, does. This might be significant locally, such as in the Muslim majority areas in the Balkans where the majority of the fighting is taking place, but it won't have a large effect overall on the country.

Someone else had mentioned Greece attempting a war against the Ottomans and biting off more than they can chew. I can't wait for such a conflict honestly. This story deserves at least one 1v1 between Greece and the Ottomans, that is extremely hard fought on both sides, regardless of the eventual winner. I would not appreciate a 1897 style war though, where overconfident Greeks just get smacked down in less than a year, losing gains for absolutely no reason. These 2 countries deserve a proper confrontation, even though I highly doubt it will be in Greece's favor.

 

[Duke of Orlando]

Prussia and Austria? There's nothing for them to achieve by allying with the Brits. Austria already lost her lands on the east with the exception of the lands around Poland. If Austria joins, the only land compensation it'll get is around the Grand duchy of Warsaw if it doesn't become independent. Prussia? The only lands they'll get is the same and probably the lands around the baltic coasts. Its gonna be them that will have to fight the majority of the Russian armies (Well also Hungary if they join the coalition they most certainly will if they're confident).

The Brits gains everything it wants in curbing Russian influence if it succeeds but they'll take minor damage for such a coalition. Meanwhile its allies will most certainly have massive casualties for such an event.

The best course of actions for Prussia, Russia and Austria is to be as neutral or ally as possible. Its in their best interest to be at peace, waging wars on eastern europe has always been bloody for them so recreating their old agreements or even an alliance is always the better option.

I’m not going to disagree that about what’s the best action. The best action is normally peace as far as human lives are concerned. That said Austria really can’t be even neutral with Russia after essentially being mugged for Galicia. That’s the kinda resentment that is likely to stick around for a very long time. Also it seems that Russia and France are likely headed to an alliance of some sort as France and Russia have a common enemy in super power Britain. Prussia wont like being sandwiched and would likely jump to weaken Russia if possible.

I also agree that no one in Europe will join that dumpster fire of a war at this point. Maybe in the first year or two, but now that everyone has seen how deadly and damaging it is for all parties involved? There's no way that the recently emasculated austrians, who are probably desperately looking for a way to become a great power again, or the germans, less than a decade out from the madness of 1848, will intervene against the Russians.

Also, some people have mentioned the demographic effects of the Ottomans losing 100k+ more men than they did OTL during the crimean war, but it really won't be that big of an impact. Realistically, loss of soldiers does not impact population growth, loss of civilians, specifically women, does. This might be significant locally, such as in the Muslim majority areas in the Balkans where the majority of the fighting is taking place, but it won't have a large effect overall on the country.

Someone else had mentioned Greece attempting a war against the Ottomans and biting off more than they can chew. I can't wait for such a conflict honestly. This story deserves at least one 1v1 between Greece and the Ottomans, that is extremely hard fought on both sides, regardless of the eventual winner. I would not appreciate a 1897 style war though, where overconfident Greeks just get smacked down in less than a year, losing gains for absolutely no reason. These 2 countries deserve a proper confrontation, even though I highly doubt it will be in Greece's favor.

This war is over. I meant in the future. To get involved in this war at this point you’d have to be insane.

 

[Lascaris]

I also agree that no one in Europe will join that dumpster fire of a war at this point. Maybe in the first year or two, but now that everyone has seen how deadly and damaging it is for all parties involved? There's no way that the recently emasculated austrians, who are probably desperately looking for a way to become a great power again, or the germans, less than a decade out from the madness of 1848, will intervene against the Russians.

Also, some people have mentioned the demographic effects of the Ottomans losing 100k+ more men than they did OTL during the crimean war, but it really won't be that big of an impact. Realistically, loss of soldiers does not impact population growth, loss of civilians, specifically women, does. This might be significant locally, such as in the Muslim majority areas in the Balkans where the majority of the fighting is taking place, but it won't have a large effect overall on the country.

Someone else had mentioned Greece attempting a war against the Ottomans and biting off more than they can chew. I can't wait for such a conflict honestly. This story deserves at least one 1v1 between Greece and the Ottomans, that is extremely hard fought on both sides, regardless of the eventual winner. I would not appreciate a 1897 style war though, where overconfident Greeks just get smacked down in less than a year, losing gains for absolutely no reason. These 2 countries deserve a proper confrontation, even though I highly doubt it will be in Greece's favor.

We are in the 19th century. One of the Balkan countries COULD lose a war with the Ottomans, both Serbia and Greece did in 1875 and 1897. But even if they do lose one the Ottomans will not be let by the European great powers to gain territory as a consequence. That said the "lets have an one on one" is the same thing heard in the 20th century by both Bulgarian and Turkish nationalists for everyone else "you could only beat us by ganging up on us". Being part of a coalition and having sane diplomacy is a feature not a bug.

 

[goumaister]

Why wouldn't anyone join this war? Scandinavia has a very big reason to do so , taking back Finland, Prussia doesn't like a very strong Russia on its border , Austria just lost a province without even a shot fired! Everyone in eastern Europe wan't Russia to go down. I don't see a straight out war yes but a very big coalition and even a threat to end this war and give Galicia back from everyone above could be possible. Russia doesn't have the ammunition or the money to fight them all, damn not even Prussia alone, so this could go about as OTL Crimean war where they signed peace when Austria threatened intervention.

Especially this is a problem in Austria. If they are seen by the 2 other kingdoms that they just left a province slip away without a fight they will rise up and then bye-bye Austria. That is why I see them trying their hardest to at least give a fight cause their reputation depends on it. The rest of the Germans could be persuaded by some classic nationalistic speak of defeating the barbarian Russian threat and keeping the civilization safe , aided by some British bribes here and there. Just them threatening a war could end this conflict immediately adding Hungary , who would love some national pride in war, and Scandinavia and then Russian is in a pickle.

Of course this is just a speculation really but I don't see it as totally impossible. I also agree with @A_simple_pilgrim on the matter of a 1 on 1 between Greece and the Ottomans just for the fun of it. Also Greece is bound to slip and make a mistake here and there so a new war for the next decade is to me really not probable , not impossible though if the Greeks are provoked by some purges of Greeks in the Empire.

 

[formion]

We are in the 19th century. One of the Balkan countries COULD lose a war with the Ottomans, both Serbia and Greece did in 1875 and 1897. But even if they do lose one the Ottomans will not be let by the European great powers to gain territory as a consequence. That said the "lets have an one on one" is the same thing heard in the 20th century by both Bulgarian and Turkish nationalists for everyone else "you could only beat us by ganging up on us". Being part of a coalition and having sane diplomacy is a feature not a bug.

Precicely!

Moreover, in this timeline Greeks have an advantage they didn't have in OTL: the hilly and mountainous region north of Elassona is included in the recent annexation. This is excellent defensible border. In 1940 there were only 3 macdam roads crossing the passes between Thessaly and Macedonia. I expect in mid 19th century to have been either none or perhaps just one. Therefore, a greek offensive towards Macedonia has many chances to fail. However, in the defensive, Greece is in an envious position compared to OTL.

Not to forget that with the Dodecanese being greek, Greece can enforce a blockade of the three main ottoman ports: Constantinople, Smyrna and Salonica. Greece can hold the ottoman economy hostage while being on the defensive. This is a great diplomatic tool if the Ottomans decide to focus Hamidian-style massacres on the greek element of the empire. The islands and the greek fleet are the best life insurance Ottoman Greeks can buy.

 

[UnaiB]

I think that an interesting and plausible place to discuss and sign the peace treaty could be Athens.

 

[Daylight Savings]

I think that an interesting and plausible place to discuss and sign the peace treaty could be Athens.

That would be an additional slap in the face to a beaten Ottoman Empire. "The country that extorted you for land at the beginning of the war would be happy to negotiate the terms of your surrender as well."

 

[Duke of Orlando]

That would be an additional slap in the face to a beaten Ottoman Empire. "The country that extorted you for land at the beginning of the war would be happy to negotiate the terms of your surrender as well."

While it would be cool if they signed it in Athens it is unlikely. And with Paris backing Egypt it is likely out of the running too. Vienna possibly? Or Rome perhaps.

 

[Daylight Savings]

While it would be cool if they signed it in Athens it is unlikely. And with Paris backing Egypt it is likely out of the running too. Vienna possibly? Or Rome perhaps.

I kind of love the idea of a Muslim, Orthodox and Protestant nation all going to Rome to work out a treaty. I can't say whether this would actually be out of character for the period, but it is an interesting idea.

 

[Napoleon Forever]

Eh, Paris is backing Egypt but Egypt isn’t in the war. My money’s still on Paris due to Napoleon II’s incredibly strong hand and likely desire for further prestige to get out of his fathers shadow.

 

[A_simple_pilgrim]

With a name like Napoleon Forever, he might be pretty biased, but I agree. Paris makes the most sense for this, as they have interests in the middle east but are neither ally nor enemy of any of the major war participants. There should be no reason for them not to go to Paris, since there's no way the french would intervene in Egypt, not that they need to, so the French will work as an effective neutral party.

Athens might be a funny choice, but the Ottomans would rather another year of war than go there. Additionally the British would fear the Greeks favouring Russia and weakening the Ottomans, which is a valid concern, while the Russians would fear the Greeks would favour the British. Too much of a political mess compared to the far safer and more comfortable option of Paris.

 

[Lascaris]

The German capital is a logical option...

 

[Wolttaire]

what about itatly? or spain?

 

[Duke of Orlando]

I don’t know if the Russians would accept Paris either now that I think about it. I mean the French were essential in arming the Ottomans. Without their support the war would likely have ended earlier and more decisively in their favor.

So yeah I’m going with Vienna as being the treaty location, with dark horse candidates being Rome (you’re all heretics you me) or Amsterdam (less war more trading. Unless it’s over Brussels. Then more war)