Pride Goes Before a Fall: A Revolutionary Greece Timeline

[Daylight Savings]

What are the chances that Greece is in a strong enough financial situation within the next decade to offer to buy Cyprus? The Ottomans will be desperate for cash and if the Greeks see a war over it as inevitable, they might decide it's ultimately cheaper to just buy it outright.

 

[Wolttaire]

What are the chances that Greece is in a strong enough financial situation within the next decade to offer to buy Cyprus? The Ottomans will be desperate for cash and if the Greeks see a war over it as inevitable, they might decide it's ultimately cheaper to just buy it outright.

On one hand greece might be since britian investing so much in them for no cost for greeks and they are profiting off the trade and the british using them a supply stop but also ottotmans may not want to give up anymore land after they lose this war depends on how desperate they are

 

[pjmidd]

On one hand greece might be since britian investing so much in them for no cost for greeks and they are profiting off the trade and the british using them a supply stop but also ottotmans may not want to give up anymore land after they lose this war depends on how desperate they are

Ottomans might get desperate but they are never going to sell land to Greece given they probably believe the Greeks have taken advantage of their weakness already. More likely they sell it to Britain who would not turn down the chance to get a base in the Eastern Med to go with Gibraltar in the West and Malta in the center ( assuming Egypt does not go quite as OTL ) .

 

[Wolttaire]

Ottomans might get desperate but they are never going to sell land to Greece given they probably believe the Greeks have taken advantage of their weakness already. More likely they sell it to Britain who would not turn down the chance to get a base in the Eastern Med to go with Gibraltar in the West and Malta in the center ( assuming Egypt does not go quite as OTL ) .

yah prob more likely

 

[Daylight Savings]

That does seem more likely, but also the kind of thing that's going to drive a wedge between the UK and Greece. "You let the Greeks under your control join their brothers in exchange for our cooperation then grabbed more Greeks?"

 

[Lascaris]

An obvious TTL question is what happens to the 1856 hat-i humayun which in OTL largely came from French and British pressure for their support in the Crimean war, if Britain is otherwise occupied and France off the picture...

 

[Duke of Orlando]

I mean on a personal level the Ottoman government despises the Greeks but when you desperately need cash people grit there teeth and do what they gotta do. If the Greeks are the only ones offering and your British debt collector is saber rattling I could see the ottomans doing it out of necessity and hating every second of it.

The British could also try to get the Ottomans to pay off their debts with the island and/or other areas in the Eastern Mediterranean. The British seeing Cyprus as a natural Greek claim my decide to side step that diplomatic issue and ask for Armenian Cilicia instead. We already discussed that the British taking the area as a counter to French Lebanon, and this provides a golden opportunity for it.

 

[Flosgon78]

I don't have the specifics of TTL's Second Empire completely settled yet, but I'd say Napoleon II's regime is closer to the government his father attempted to establish in the 100 Days, rather than the OTL Second Empire Napoleon III created. As he died relatively young in OTL, I don't have much to base his political beliefs off of for this timeline unfortunately, but he did receive a good - if rather conservative - education while in Austria. ITTL, he escapes his "confinement" and gets a chance to travel and see the world, spending several years in Switzerland and the United Kingdom where he is free to develop his own politic beliefs. Overall, he is definitely a monarchist, but I tend to think of him more as a constitutional monarch rather than an absolute monarch.


The Ottoman Empire is definitely in for a rough time ahead of it, regardless of the outcome of this war. At the end of 1855, they are already taking millions of Pounds in loans from Britain, they've suffered tens of thousands of casualties they didn't take in OTL, and the fighting is predominantly on their territory. They've already agreed to hand over some provinces to Greece, although their loss is lightened due to their general restlessness and poorness, as well as increases in British loans to sooth any rustled feathers in Constantinople. Even if they were to miraculously win the war, they likely wouldn't gain much in terms of meaningful compensation as was largely the case in the OTL Crimean War. If they lose - which is far more likely - then they'll be in an even worse state as at a minimum, they'll lose their control over Wallachia and Moldavia, and they'll probably lose some territory in Eastern Anatolia as well. Anything beyond that is dependent on how well Russia does going forward.

This war will definitely have some lessons to give, particularly the force multipliers that are rifles and percussion shells. There will also be a lot of scrutiny given to poor medical practices and logistical systems implemented on both sides after the war, and for good reason. That being said, I expect the Russians to be less inclined to modernize and reform their military apparatus ITTL, owing to their greater success, while Britain will likely accelerate their OTL reforms in response to their poorer performances.

I realize that I've been trending towards longer updates recently, the last one in particular was the longest yet at 15 pages of text or 8,913 words. My intent was to give you all more to read, but it has been been slowing my release schedule down, unfortunately. So if you all would like, I can definitely break these parts up a bit, giving you all more frequent updates and me more time to focus on other aspects of the timeline.


In terms of battlefield casualties, the British are actually doing quite well after a year of fighting all things considered, but they've been devastated by disease like in OTL, with Cholera and Typhus killing many thousands. Of a prewar total of 150-160k men, around half has been sent to the Balkans, a quarter was in India, and the rest was scattered across the globe in Canada, Australia, New Zealand, South Africa, etc. They do have more men to call upon, but if forced to choose between India and the Ottomans, the British would choose India every time. That being said, the situation in India isn't that dire just yet, so they still have some room to maneuver.

The Ottomans in contrast, are in a very bad way right now. For simplicity's sake I'll say that there were 150-160k Nizamis ITTL at the start of the War in the Spring of 1854, most of which were in the Balkans, although a couple thousand were in the Caucasus at that time and around 200,000 reservists rounding out their armies. By the end of 1855, the Nizamis in Eastern Anatolia have been effectively wiped out, dying either from battle wounds or disease, although many deserted or simply disappeared altogether. Similarly, the number of Nizamis in the Balkans have been more than halved by casualties and illness, forcing the Porte to call upon their reservists to fill their depleted ranks. These troops are more akin to garrison troops, irregulars, or militiamen rather than professional soldiers, so as the war continues and the Ottomans are forced to rely upon these troops more and more, their fighting proficiency will gradually decrease.

Unlike the Ottomans and the British, Russia can replace its lost soldiers with its reserves, but even these are not limitless and can probably continue to fight for another two years or so at its current pace, before their losses really begin impacting their ability to fight. More than likely though, the British and Ottomans will run out of men first so at this point its a war of attrition for them. Not all is going well for Russia, however, as their economy is being destroyed by the British blockade and their minorities are beginning to make some noise, hence the need to push the offensive. There is also their increasingly terrible supply problems as you mentioned, as shortages in weapons and ammunition make it very difficult to effectively wage war.


Cyprus is still a part of the Ottoman Empire at this time, both IOTL and ITTL. The UK wouldn't get a hold of it until the Treaty of Berlin in 1878 and even then, they ruled Cyprus on "behalf" of the Ottoman Government which still held de jure control over the island. They wouldn't control it outright until 1914 when the Ottomans joined World War I against Britain.

Regarding Greece's economy post Great Eurasian War, it will definitely be much stronger once it fully integrates Thessaly, Epirus, the Ionian Islands, and the Dodecanese Islands. The real gain here is Thessaly which has some of the best farmland in all of Greece and will effectively become the breadbasket of the Greek State. The Ionian and Dodecanese Islands also have decent agriculture industries, with Zakynthos being a sizeable producer of currants and Rhodes has a number of famous vineyards, they also have talented sailors and provide Greece with several good ports. Epirus in contrast is rather lackluster, but it does a solid herding industry and there is a small tobacco industry around Ioannina, most importantly, it provides Greece with a defensible Northern border and it gives control over the entire Eastern Ionian Sea.


Well I won't say if Egypt becomes independent as that might spoil my future plans, but it definitely won't become a British protectorate like in OTL.


Very interesting Damian, I'll definitely check out that book when I get the chance. Overall, I haven't decided on the exact details of what the Balkans will look like after this war, but Serbia will definitely be gaining more autonomy regardless of the outcome. As the war continues, the Ottomans will essentially be forced to recall their troops from Serbia, thus necessitating an agreement of some sort to prevent their rebellion and entry into the on Russia's side. While I doubt Serbia would actually declare war, the Ottomans don't know this and more importantly, they're a little short on trust right now after their dealings with Greece and Britain. I definitely agree, though that Russia will be forced to pick and choose between Serbia and Bulgaria as their competing claims will make it impossible for both of them to peacefully coexist.


Greece will provide as much financial and material support that it can to Greek Schools both in Cyprus and the rest of the Ottoman Empire.


By in large, the Greek citizens of the Kingdom of Greece consider themselves to be Hellenes, while those Greeks under Ottoman administration (particularly those in Constantinople, Anatolia, and the Levant) generally consider themselves to be Rhomaioi. That said, I don't think its mutually exclusive as the modern Greeks consider the Rhomaioi to simply be their Medieval ancestors so there is definitely some leeway in regards to the terminology, especially if the Greek state ever recovers Constantinople and reasserts its connections to the Basileia Rhomaion.

Egypt:
The Khedivate of Egypt will be remaining neutral in the current conflict for reasons that will soon be revealed. Hint: It has something to do with Ibrahim Pasha. That said, individual Egyptians and Arabs under Egyptian control have been joining the fight against Russia, albeit somewhere in the range of a few thousand, rather than the 40,000 they provided in OTL. Some of these men are, or rather were Egyptian soldiers, but most are not, meaning they are not as disciplined, nor are they as proficient as the OTL Egyptian contribution to the Crimean War, but at this point the Porte is thankful for every warm body that it can get.

Cyprus:
Regarding the discussion a potential revolt on the island of Cyprus, there probably won't be one during this war as Greece has effectively announced to the world via its agreement with the Porte, that it won't support further Greek partisans in the Ottoman Empire in return the cessation of the Dodecanese Islands in late 1855 and the cessation of Thessaly and Epirus at the end of the War. There is also the matter of the Royal Navy's Mediterranean Squadron which is currently operating out of the Aegean right now and wouldn't look too kindly upon Greece if it attacked their ally during a time of war.

After the war though things are a little different as the Ottoman Empire is in for a tough time ahead of it as a result of the greater financial and military burden it has had to bare ITTL. Greece, in contrast is only getting stronger, with the inclusion of Epirus, Thessaly, the Ionian Islands and the Dodecanese Islands, boosting its population to 2.2 million and strengthening its economy by a great margin, enabling the Greek military to expand accordingly. The Greek navy is particularly important to the Greek state and will likely receive substantial investments in the years ahead, enabling it to go toe to toe with the Ottoman Navy despite their comparatively small size. Whether this would result in a Greek/Cypriot victory over the Ottomans I won't say, but it is interesting to consider right now.

Thank you very much for your answer ! It's really interesting, you can ask me about french politics if you need help

 

[Flosgon78]

I realize that I've been trending towards longer updates recently, the last one in particular was the longest yet at 15 pages of text or 8,913 words. My intent was to give you all more to read, but it has been been slowing my release schedule down, unfortunately. So if you all would like, I can definitely break these parts up a bit, giving you all more frequent updates and me more time to focus on other aspects of the timeline.

I definitely agree with you, I like reading you but I think a smaller format, will make your publications more numerous and frequent, so it's very cool

 

[Aristomenes]

@Earl Marshal I don't have any real problem with longer updates, but if shorter updates mean more frequent updating, then shorter updates might be enticing . However if you feel that a story cannot be broken in two parts, then go for longer updates.

Concerning Cyprus, the best approach for the Greek government would be to support the creation of Greek schools in Cyprus and support Greek trade with the island. In Cyprus a significant percentage of the Muslim population was in fact Crypto-Christians (named linobambaki, λινοβάμβακοι or λινομπάμπακοι) . The Greek consul in Larnaca in1860 calculated them between 10-15.000 out of 45.000 Muslim inhabitants. Other sources though estimate them at 1.200 persons, which seems rather low. Perhaps some of them, with more extensive Greek education (and after some reforms similar to OTL hat-i humayun) would declare openly themselves as Christians.
Of course, Greece could additionally turn a blind eye to Greek patriots "donating" military equipment to Greek-Cypriots...

Linobambaki - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

Λινοβάμβακοι ή λινοπάμπατζιοι

Ακριβή στοιχεία για την αριθμητική δύναμη των λινοβαμβάκων κατά τον 19ο και 20ό αιώνα, όπως και κ...

www.polignosi.com

Cyprus

books.google.gr

I have found this English proto-tourist guide about Cyprus , published in 1878, it is interesting reading material (I haven't read all of it yet.)

Cyprus, our new colony, and what we know about it : Frederick Henry Fisher : Free Download, Borrow, and Streaming : Internet Archive

Book digitized by Google from the library of Oxford University and uploaded to the Internet Archive by user tpb.

archive.org

 

[oca2073]

This ought to be Greece's ideal final borders. (rename Central to Rumelia, Attaleia to Pisidia) Add Northern Epirus and the Albanian Riviera. A secondary European power behind only UK, Germany, France, Russia. On par with the likes of Italy. The King residing in Constantinople the capital with the legislature/judiciary (check on the monarchy/executive) in Athens. All Pontic, Cappadocian Greeks + Armenians, Assyrians move to Greece. While roughly an equivalent number of Turks/Muslims move to Turkey, leaving behind a significant protected minority. No genocides.

 

[Nagisaki]

All Pontic, Cappadocian Greeks + Armenians move to Greece.

Wait, so you want all of the Armenians kicked out of their homelands and moved to Greece, or am I misreading this?

 

[oca2073]

Wait, so you want all of the Armenians kicked out of their homelands and moved to Greece, or am I misreading this?

I'm wondering how else you can save them? Once Greece moves to swallow up more Ottoman territory, they form Turkey, how are you going to preserve an Armenian state in the east? The Assyrians too need to move. In any case, a Greek king presiding over Armenian/Assyrian subjects has historical precedence. Better than the genocide playing out as it did OTL.

 

[Nagisaki]

I'm wondering how else you can save them? Once Greece moves to swallow up more Ottoman territory, they form Turkey, how are you going to preserve an Armenian state in the east? The Assyrians too need to move. In any case, a Greek king presiding over Armenian/Assyrian subjects has historical precedence. Better than the genocide playing out as it did OTL.

The Armenians are currently split between Russia and Turkey; Russia can conceivably annex more land in the Caucuses and the Armenian Highlands.

 

[oca2073]

The Armenians are currently split between Russia and Turkey; Russia can conceivably annex more land in the Caucuses and the Armenian Highlands.

I suppose so, however if you look at how far west the Armenians live (+the Assyrians), the Russians would have to annex a LOT of territory which might anger the French/British. Plus the Turks don't have much land left squeezed in the middle. Russia will have to deal with a Turkish insurgency, possibly Armenian nationalist uprising, plus infighting between the two groups. The end result may still be large scale massacres, thus Russia may not want to get involved with those lands. It appears a great deal of Armenians would be trapped in Turkish territory still and may prefer to move to Greece as opposed to Russian controlled Armenia. Russia also has no history of treating minorities well. Look at Finland, Poland, Lithuania, Georgia, ect.

 

[cmakk1012]

Realistically, the best the Armenians are gonna get is an expanded version of the Highlands (so including Lake Van or so) and then any living farther west will just have to migrate/flee eastward. Russia isn’t going to be able to annex half of Anatolia, and it would be large areas that are majority Turkish.

The Assyrians are quite frankly screwed short of a miracle or something ridiculous like a French mega-Syria being established before 1900.

 

[E_x_c_u_b_i_t_o_r_e]

This ought to be Greece's ideal final borders. (rename Smyrna to Ionia, Central to Rumelia, Attaleia to Pisidia) Add Northern Epirus and the Albanian Riviera. A secondary European power behind only UK, Germany, France, Russia. On par with the likes of Italy. The King residing in Constantinople the capital with the legislature/judiciary (check on the monarchy/executive) in Athens. All Pontic, Cappadocian Greeks + Armenians, Assyrians move to Greece. While roughly an equivalent number of Turks/Muslims move to Turkey, leaving behind a significant protected minority. No genocides.
View attachment 600712

Looks like your going for the John II Komnenos border which arguably is a very defensive border. Add a couple forts where Manuel Komnenos built his and the borders are pretty secure for both sides.

 

[oca2073]

Realistically, the best the Armenians are gonna get is an expanded version of the Highlands (so including Lake Van or so) and then any living farther west will just have to migrate/flee eastward. Russia isn’t going to be able to annex half of Anatolia, and it would be large areas that are majority Turkish.

The Assyrians are quite frankly screwed short of a miracle or something ridiculous like a French mega-Syria being established before 1900.

I doubt either Turkey or Russia will want an Armenian state. It's not high on the priorities of UK/France either.

That's why I said the Greeks need to take in the Assyrians. Plus Armenians that don't want to live in Turkey or Russia-controlled Armenia. This will hopefully prevent most of the OTL genocide.

Although it's not PC to say so, it's important if Greece wants to expand that large to take in more Christian populations or else having too large a Muslim and Turk percentage of the population in western Anatolia may pose stability problems.

 

[formion]

If only the Erzurum vilayet is annexed by Russia, then the vast majority of the Armenians will still live in the Ottoman Empire. The population density is better illustrated here.

https://i.redd.it/zk4pgzz3att21.jpg

 

[cmakk1012]

I doubt either Turkey or Russia will want an Armenian state. It's not high on the priorities of UK/France either.

That's why I said the Greeks need to take in the Assyrians. Plus Armenians that don't want to live in Turkey or Russia-controlled Armenia. This will hopefully prevent most of the OTL genocide.

Although it's not PC to say so, it's important if Greece wants to expand that large to take in more Christian populations or else having too large a Muslim and Turk percentage of the population in western Anatolia may pose stability problems.

I didn’t make it clear, but when I said “what the Armenians might get” I meant as subjects of Russia, not an independent state. If it’s Imperial Russia, they could potentially create a “Grand Duchy of Armenia/Trebizond” and give it slight autonomy à la Poland which might stave off migration. A lot of the fleeing Russian Armenia IOTL was probably because it was the USSR, not Tsarist Russia.

Agreed on the Muslim minorities being an issue, but I genuinely don’t see a way to accomplish the borders you’re proposing without genocide or massive ethnic cleansing. There are a lot of Turks in those borders, especially inland, and there will already be massive population movements from European Turkey into Asian Turkey. The rump Turkish state will be vengeful and have the local population onside. I can see Greece being able to pick up the coasts of the map you showed, but not much of the interior.

If only the Erzurum vilayet is annexed by Russia, then the vast majority of the Armenians will still live in the Ottoman Empire. The population density is better illustrated here.

https://i.redd.it/zk4pgzz3att21.jpg

It’s an issue somewhat like the Kurds IOTL, where there are pockets of population all over the place mixed in with pockets of Turks and other ethnicities (including the aforementioned Kurds). That doesn’t mean all that land in the map can be made into a contiguous Armenia, there are way too many Muslims in that region for the other powers to accept it and for Russia to hold it without repressing a major insurgency.