What kind of regime did Napoleon II imposed ? Something like Napoléon's one, the one of the hundred days, more parlemantarian ?
@Earl Marshal
I don't have the specifics of TTL's Second Empire completely settled yet, but I'd say Napoleon II's regime is closer to the government his father attempted to establish in the 100 Days, rather than the OTL Second Empire Napoleon III created. As he died relatively young in OTL, I don't have much to base his political beliefs off of for this timeline unfortunately, but he did receive a good - if rather conservative - education while in Austria. ITTL, he escapes his "confinement" and gets a chance to travel and see the world, spending several years in Switzerland and the United Kingdom where he is free to develop his own politic beliefs. Overall, he is definitely a monarchist, but I tend to think of him more as a constitutional monarch rather than an absolute monarch.
I wonder if now Egypt would do a similar thing as in Greek War of Independence. They demand Syria, Hejaz and Damascus permanently plus more autonomy for exchange of their good quality troops especially now that the Ottomans need troops in the East desperately. That would change a lot on that front maybe even a counterattack. Still the Sepoy Rebellion would impact British involvement but I doubt they will withdraw their current troops from Silistra maybe they send less reinforcements on that front.
The impact of this war is gonna be huge for the Ottomans even if they somehow turn the tables ,which is unlikely. They have lost thousands of men and material and they are in deep debt as well so that doesn't help either. Dark times ahead for them indeed.
This war though is not like OTL Crimean war yet, although I see the parallels with the siege of Silistra, so maybe the lessons learned from OTL Crimean war won't be learned here which would impact later wars mainly in early trench warfare and more possibly the American Civil war which comes closer and closer.
Anyways great update it was worth the wait as every other update. I would suggest maybe to cut your updates in smaller bits and giving them a week at a time so we have the updates and you will have the time. But that is up to you.
The Ottoman Empire is definitely in for a rough time ahead of it, regardless of the outcome of this war. At the end of 1855, they are already taking millions of Pounds in loans from Britain, they've suffered tens of thousands of casualties they didn't take in OTL, and the fighting is predominantly on their territory. They've already agreed to hand over some provinces to Greece, although their loss is lightened due to their general restlessness and poorness, as well as increases in British loans to sooth any rustled feathers in Constantinople. Even if they were to miraculously win the war, they likely wouldn't gain much in terms of meaningful compensation as was largely the case in the OTL Crimean War. If they lose - which is far more likely - then they'll be in an even worse state as at a minimum, they'll lose their control over Wallachia and Moldavia, and they'll probably lose some territory in Eastern Anatolia as well. Anything beyond that is dependent on how well Russia does going forward.
This war will definitely have some lessons to give, particularly the force multipliers that are rifles and percussion shells. There will also be a lot of scrutiny given to poor medical practices and logistical systems implemented on both sides after the war, and for good reason. That being said, I expect the Russians to be less inclined to modernize and reform their military apparatus ITTL, owing to their greater success, while Britain will likely accelerate their OTL reforms in response to their poorer performances.
I realize that I've been trending towards longer updates recently, the last one in particular was the longest yet at 15 pages of text or 8,913 words. My intent was to give you all more to read, but it has been been slowing my release schedule down, unfortunately. So if you all would like, I can definitely break these parts up a bit, giving you all more frequent updates and me more time to focus on other aspects of the timeline.
Thing is the Allies are running out of reserves.
The British are much more heavily involved TTL. That means much more casualties as well. Cholera, typhus and dysentery kill up to 10 times more men than russian bullets and shells. I expect all the involved armies of the 1855 danubian campaign to have melted away by the 1855-1856 winter. The blood tax for Britain is catastrophic and they will have to decide if the last trained reserves would be sent either in the Balkans or India. India seems the natural choice. If they send army reinforcements in the Balkans and it will be a big if, I expect it to be in battalions and not in brigades/divisions.
The same goes for the Ottomans. The theoretical 150,000 nizam regulars of 1854 should have almost all be either dead or wounded/incapacitated. The same goes for the majority of the trained reservists. At least in contrast to the British, the Ottomans can send waves of semi-trained men to man the trenches, although at a nightmarish cost.
The russian army will have melted as well mostly from disease. At least the Russians can send another 200k in the Danube. They cannot arm with proper equipment and logistically support hundreds of thousands of men in the front in a single season. However, they can send every year a new 200k army in the Balkans for two more campaigning seasons.
In terms of battlefield casualties, the British are actually doing quite well after a year of fighting all things considered, but they've been devastated by disease like in OTL, with Cholera and Typhus killing many thousands. Of a prewar total of 150-160k men, around half has been sent to the Balkans, a quarter was in India, and the rest was scattered across the globe in Canada, Australia, New Zealand, South Africa, etc. They do have more men to call upon, but if forced to choose between India and the Ottomans, the British would choose India every time. That being said, the situation in India isn't that dire just yet, so they still have
some room to maneuver.
The Ottomans in contrast, are in a very bad way right now. For simplicity's sake I'll say that there were 150-160k Nizamis ITTL at the start of the War in the Spring of 1854, most of which were in the Balkans, although a couple thousand were in the Caucasus at that time and around 200,000 reservists rounding out their armies. By the end of 1855, the Nizamis in Eastern Anatolia have been effectively wiped out, dying either from battle wounds or disease, although many deserted or simply disappeared altogether. Similarly, the number of Nizamis in the Balkans have been more than halved by casualties and illness, forcing the Porte to call upon their reservists to fill their depleted ranks. These troops are more akin to garrison troops, irregulars, or militiamen rather than professional soldiers, so as the war continues and the Ottomans are forced to rely upon these troops more and more, their fighting proficiency will gradually decrease.
Unlike the Ottomans and the British, Russia can replace its lost soldiers with its reserves, but even these are not limitless and can probably continue to fight for another two years or so at its current pace, before their losses really begin impacting their ability to fight. More than likely though, the British and Ottomans will run out of men first so at this point its a war of attrition for them. Not all is going well for Russia, however, as their economy is being destroyed by the British blockade and their minorities are beginning to make some noise, hence the need to push the offensive. There is also their increasingly terrible supply problems as you mentioned, as shortages in weapons and ammunition make it very difficult to effectively wage war.
I personally see no reason for Egypt to step into the Ottoman's favor and aid their overlord, where they could just do a quid pro quo with the Russians for support when they declare their independence. Most likely when the Ottoblob is in their economic crisis post-Great Eurasian War when they gotta pay their debts and rebuild their military.
Also, wondering what kind of difference a more economically prosperous Greece post-GEW ITTL will have on the Eastern Mediterranean? Could the Greeks utilize their economic weight and Russian influence to gain Cyprus earlier (of course allowing Albion to keep their bases)?
Just wondering out loud and what other people think.
Cyprus is still a part of the Ottoman Empire at this time, both IOTL and ITTL. The UK wouldn't get a hold of it until the Treaty of Berlin in 1878 and even then, they ruled Cyprus on "behalf" of the Ottoman Government which still held de jure control over the island. They wouldn't control it outright until 1914 when the Ottomans joined World War I against Britain.
Regarding Greece's economy post Great Eurasian War, it will definitely be much stronger once it fully integrates Thessaly, Epirus, the Ionian Islands, and the Dodecanese Islands. The real gain here is Thessaly which has some of the best farmland in all of Greece and will effectively become the breadbasket of the Greek State. The Ionian and Dodecanese Islands also have decent agriculture industries, with Zakynthos being a sizeable producer of currants and Rhodes has a number of famous vineyards, they also have talented sailors and provide Greece with several good ports. Epirus in contrast is rather lackluster, but it does a solid herding industry and there is a small tobacco industry around Ioannina, most importantly, it provides Greece with a defensible Northern border and it gives control over the entire Eastern Ionian Sea.
I'm actually kind of hoping Egypt does become independent because I can't actually think of a 19th century TL where Egypt actually breaks free of the Ottomans and becomes its full, de jure own thing
Well I won't say if Egypt becomes independent as that might spoil my future plans, but it definitely won't become a British protectorate like in OTL.
Whilst I don't know about the idea of independence, forcing the Sultan to not only hand over Belgrade, Smederevo, Šabac, Kladavo, Užice and Soko Grad to the Serbs would be a minimum requirement in ensuring the de facto autonomy of Serbia, and, according to
a new source I had just discovered(!), there was a general hope among the Serbian population that Russia's success would result in Serbia gaining more land, as it had previously done indirectly in 1833.
Though I still stand by much of what I had said previously on Serbia and its neutrality during this conflict, I would highly recommend giving this book a looksie, because it delves into some fascinating geopolitical struggles.
However, a point to consider with Bulgaria and Serbia is that Russia cannot hope to turn to both because the two are destined to come into conflict over their overlapping geographical interests. Whilst Bulgaria may make more sense for Russia, Serbia may be of more interest when considering the Hungarians. If someone else were to swoop in, that's a potential ally lost. And as I've pointed to in the past, Serbia is effectively destined to ally with Greece (though TTL's Crimean War's end may cause some interesting developments, based on what I've said before, and based on the book I've linked).
Very interesting Damian, I'll definitely check out that book when I get the chance. Overall, I haven't decided on the exact details of what the Balkans will look like after this war, but Serbia will definitely be gaining more autonomy regardless of the outcome. As the war continues, the Ottomans will essentially be forced to recall their troops from Serbia, thus necessitating an agreement of some sort to prevent their rebellion and entry into the on Russia's side. While I doubt Serbia would actually declare war, the Ottomans don't know this and more importantly, they're a little short on trust right now after their dealings with Greece and Britain. I definitely agree, though that Russia will be forced to pick and choose between Serbia and Bulgaria as their competing claims will make it impossible for both of them to peacefully coexist.
Will greece fund more greek schools in cyprus in tts?and if so we maybe see a revolt happen but in the next decade or more depending on the situation at hand...anycase more kalamarades(a greek layman's term meaning ink-man i.e a schoolar) in cyprus would only be beneficial
Greece will provide as much financial and material support that it can to Greek Schools both in Cyprus and the rest of the Ottoman Empire.
Do the Greeks ITTL consider themselves Hellenoi or Rhomaioi?
By in large, the Greek citizens of the Kingdom of Greece consider themselves to be Hellenes, while those Greeks under Ottoman administration (particularly those in Constantinople, Anatolia, and the Levant) generally consider themselves to be Rhomaioi. That said, I don't think its mutually exclusive as the modern Greeks consider the Rhomaioi to simply be their Medieval ancestors so there is definitely some leeway in regards to the terminology, especially if the Greek state ever recovers Constantinople and reasserts its connections to the Basileia Rhomaion.
Egypt:
The Khedivate of Egypt will be remaining neutral in the current conflict for reasons that will soon be revealed. Hint: It has something to do with Ibrahim Pasha. That said, individual Egyptians and Arabs under Egyptian control have been joining the fight against Russia, albeit somewhere in the range of a few thousand, rather than the 40,000 they provided in OTL. Some of these men are, or rather were Egyptian soldiers, but most are not, meaning they are not as disciplined, nor are they as proficient as the OTL Egyptian contribution to the Crimean War, but at this point the Porte is thankful for every warm body that it can get.
Cyprus:
Regarding the discussion a potential revolt on the island of Cyprus, there probably won't be one during this war as Greece has effectively announced to the world via its agreement with the Porte, that it won't support further Greek partisans in the Ottoman Empire in return the cessation of the Dodecanese Islands in late 1855 and the cessation of Thessaly and Epirus at the end of the War. There is also the matter of the Royal Navy's Mediterranean Squadron which is currently operating out of the Aegean right now and wouldn't look too kindly upon Greece if it attacked their ally during a time of war.
After the war though things are a little different as the Ottoman Empire is in for a tough time ahead of it as a result of the greater financial and military burden it has had to bare ITTL. Greece, in contrast is only getting stronger, with the inclusion of Epirus, Thessaly, the Ionian Islands and the Dodecanese Islands, boosting its population to 2.2 million and strengthening its economy by a great margin, enabling the Greek military to expand accordingly. The Greek navy is particularly important to the Greek state and will likely receive substantial investments in the years ahead, enabling it to go toe to toe with the Ottoman Navy despite their comparatively small size. Whether this would result in a Greek/Cypriot victory over the Ottomans I won't say, but it is interesting to consider right now.
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