Its like asking a serial killer to vow he isn't going to kill anymore. But the Turks know the Greeks are not going to comply to this specific clause in the long term, they just want the legal moral ground when the next conflict with Greece comes.
Probably why they pushed for it. They know Greece will backstab them, so best to cut off any chance of the other powers intervening if they make that mistake.
 
Could anybody estimate the added population? I think it is 236,000 for the Ionian islands and around 250,000 for Thessaly. But what was the population of Epirus and the Dodecanese?

Likely a bit more for Thessaly, IMS it was 300,000 in 1881 and I really doubt its population had increased by 20% between 1858 and 1881. Crete was about 216,000 Christians in 1858, down to 203,000 in 1881 (the 1866-69 revolt had intervened) and 269,000 in 1900. So I'd say 275,000 for Thessaly.

Epirus was 266,000 in the south at liberation (using the Greek 1920 census data since the population of Greece did not grow during ww1) plus around 76,000 more if my suggestion on Argyrokastro and Himara is accepted. By the same time the population of Thessaly was up to 438,000. So lets call it 215-235,000 TTL. Or a rough 600,000 for Thessaly and Epirus combined.

The Dodecanese to quote myself here https://www.alternatehistory.com/fo...greece-timeline.429475/page-124#post-20715779 had based on Ottoman statistics 63,580 Greeks around 1890 (Cuinet 1892 edition), 112,000 according to Greek statistics by 1912. So I'd estimate 50-60,000 in 1855.

Overall the Greeks have probably gained oh about 750-800,000 people without going to war. Not bad at all. :cool:
 
Probably why they pushed for it. They know Greece will backstab them, so best to cut off any chance of the other powers intervening if they make that mistake.

Not to be a cynic but that clause was part of the cession of the Ionian islands in OTL. Just saying. :angel:
 
Not to be a cynic but that clause was part of the cession of the Ionian islands in OTL. Just saying. :angel:
"Backstab"first you need to be allied or have good relations to a nation that you backstab to be considered that else it is opportunism and all other nations use such chances as well, to the Hellenes the ottomans ocuppy greek territory
 
The Ottomans promised amnesty, but after the war they would treat the greeks with suspicions seeing them as greedy people that profited of the war to steal Ottomans lands and make a profit on their back, they will consider the wealth amassed by the greek as theft, they will see Greece with jealousy, and many Ottomans greek will be attracted by the Greece state causing the Ottoman to see and treat them as a fifth column, pushing the Greek nationalists to ask for their liberation.

Also, the Ottoman Empire is in a more desperate situation, and due to the fight that greek rebels put in difficulty the Ottoman empire (even if they only fight a few second rate troops). They will surely treat the ottoman army with condescension.

All of these ingredients are a recipe for disaster if the situation escalates out of control in the future, also after the war the Ottoman empire will be a wounded beast full of paranoia, i'm afraid that the situation will become difficult for many minorities after the war.

All of the above are most likely to happen... just as they were happening in OTL. Noone really doubted the loyalties of Ottoman Greeks... they were with Athens, the Ottoman state had to deal with Greek rebellions every time it went to war and often enough when it did not, if anything TTL with Crete Greek they don't at least have the 1 revolt per decade average Crete alone was generating and the porte would have to be stupid to consider independent Greece as anything but potential trouble and I doubt there was any time they didn't know it.
 
if my suggestion on Argyrokastro and Himara is accepted.
I think general Spiros Milios is the commander of the greek army in TTL if I remember correctly. He was from Himara along with other prominent revolutionaries. So, at the very least there should be pressure by influential people to include Himara in this massive bribe.

Edit: Spyros Milios was the commandat of the Evelpidon Military School, my bad. To be fair he was defence minister multiple times.
 
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You all are posting faster than I can respond! :p

@Earl Marshal - So it's effctively a Hydra then. Cut off one head (Greece), and another (Persia) takes its place. They still haven't forgotten about Herat, after all.

BTW, I may decide to make a VT-BAM of all the territorial acquisitions Greece has since independence.
Indeed it is. Qajari Persia is just the first country to join the war, there will be others joining on both sides as the conflict progresses.

I've been on this forum for over 3 years now and to be honest I had no idea what a VT-Bam was until you mentioned it now. Having done some research on it, I would be honored if you did one for my timeline.

Amazing update
Thank you very much!

Wow. Greece has just made out like a bandit. Not only has it greatly expanded its territory for essentially free, It has had Great Britain expand its ports and aid it in the construction of the Corinth canal. With all the wealth flowing in due to the supply deal alone, when Greece finally does get its hands on Thessaly, the money necessary to develop the region properly and fully integrate it may actually be available.
That was certainly a nerve-wracking chain of events, so it's great to see Greece come out of this situation in a much better position. King Leopold's connections with Queen Victoria have borne fruit, and many other contributing factors like British war exhaustion and Greek rebellions have aligned to create the conditions necessary for these treaties as well. The territorial and economic acquisitions will certainly be of great benefit to the country, and may even lay the groundwork for future expansions also being achieved without getting dragged into a ruinous war. Due to the passionate attitudes of nationalism among many Hellenes in the region, achieving these objectives diplomatically is like walking on a razor's edge, but hopefully this example of success can be used to blunt that somewhat when similar situations occur in the future.
Greece was very serious about going to war with the Ottomans and Britain, which would have been disasterous for all involved. Fortunately, they managed to reach an accommodation with each other, but to be honest it was a perfect storm for Greece. Russia is slightly stronger than OTL, the Ottomans are slightly weaker, and France is not involved. By itself, Greece wouldn't have been an issue for the Ottomans and Britain, but when combined with the juggernaut that is the Russian Empire, Greece would be an unwanted distraction that would require more resources to occupy than it was worth. Ultimately, it was cheaper to make a deal with Greece than go to war with them, albeit a rather expensive deal. It also helped that Ottoman Thessaly and Epirus were rather underdeveloped provinces.

Greece will benefit tremendously from these annexations. Not only will its territory increase by roughly 50%, but its population will also increase by 750k to 800k (a roughly 50% increase in population) as well. Thessaly possesses some of the best farmlands in Greece, the Dodecanese islands have a prominent sponge industry and famous wine industry, the Ionian Islands have currants and liquor industry, and Epirus has a moderate tobacco and dairy industry. Overall, it is a significant gain for Greece which will significantly benefit it in the years ahead. And that's not including the economic concessions Britain gave to Greece which will boost the Greek economy to new heights.

If I may, I'd strongly suggest for Epirus, Greece taking the area south and west of Aoos/Vjose river. This puts Himara, a Greek revolutionary hotbed since.. oh the 15th century and Argyrokastro in Greece avoiding future problems with Greek rebels, while leaving the eastern part on North Epirus like Korytza, which has the more pronounced Albanian population in the Ottoman empire. Border would be the one denoted in the map below as the US proposal in 1919, the one shown with ..__...__...__ in the map.

View attachment 569732

Arguably that's a win win situation, for both the Greeks and Ottomans. The Ottomans in effect lose little to nothing, Himara was either revolting or autonomous most of the time causing trouble, they show their Albanian subjects that they did support them, while the Greeks gain a town that politically is way more significant than its size would indicate given its revolutionary history and role in Greek education with the Akrokeraunian school created in 1779 and the earlier 1627 school. If you need a sweetener, there is Sason island which was part of the Ionian islands technically and can be left to the Ottoman empire...
This does make sense for all involved, but I'm concerned that this would be too much for Greece right now. They already gained Thessaly, the Ionian Islands, the Dodecanese Islands and most of Southern/Central Epirus; if they were to get Northern Epirus too that would definitely be pushing it in my opinion. I am strongly considering this though.

This great update unleashed many butterflies, but one comes first in mind: In contrast to OTL 1881, Thessaly is overrun by armed Greek rebels. This is a Mothra size butterfly. In OTL, during the peaceful negotiations, the Ottoman landlords were selling their 400 chifliks to rich Greek diaspora capitalists. Said merchants and bankers saw the chifliks as just a safe investement. These absentee landowners didn't care to invest in their new properties and mechanize the production. Being powerful men, they formed a lobby that made the government impose tariffs in grain imports. Then, as they ensured their profits, they reduced the land assigned for grains and rented much of their property to semi-nomadic Sarakatsani and Vlachs for pasturage. It was an economic disaster.

The peasants themselves had it worse. Under ottoman law, they had at least the right to cultivate the land and it was difficult for an ottoman landlord to kick them out of their land. They also had ownership of their houses and of their tools. These privileges came from the old timariot system that it was quite feudal, with both the advantages and disadvantages. It can be argued that the final owner of the land was not the landlord but the ottoman state. The ottoman landlords, afraid that either the greek state would nationalize their chifliks or buy the land directly from the ottoman state, they rushed to sell. The diaspora Greek capitalists claimed that they bought everything, including the houses, tools and draft animals of the peasants. They enforced then their rule by armed gangs that terrorized the peasants of the 400 huge estates. This situation continued until the peasant rebellion in Kileler.

However, now the great difference is that we have armed peasants that have liberated their own villages and land. It is a totally different situation.

The greek state quickly recognized the value of Thessaly and did its best to develop infrastructure. Within 6 years of the annexation, 200 miles of railroad were laid along with the development of Volos as a major port. The only problem that didnt allow Thessaly to become a regional powerhouse in Greece was the landless peasant problem. The author has now almost solved the issue before it even arise. 36 years of misery are avoided and Thessaly can reach its potential.
There will definitely be some shenanigans by the magnates, but overall, Thessaly should be in a better place, much sooner than OTL.

I do have to ask @Earl Marshal how the new borders in Epirus/Thessaly looks like map-wise (or at least with some description of what it looks like.
This is more or less how I envision the border looking at the end of the war ITTL. Thanks for the work @Bloodmage

Could anybody estimate the added population? I think it is 236,000 for the Ionian islands and around 250,000 for Thessaly. But what was the population of Epirus and the Dodecanese?
Thessaly has about 325-350.000 population,for the ionian islands you are correct
Likely a bit more for Thessaly, IMS it was 300,000 in 1881 and I really doubt its population had increased by 20% between 1858 and 1881. Crete was about 216,000 Christians in 1858, down to 203,000 in 1881 (the 1866-69 revolt had intervened) and 269,000 in 1900. So I'd say 275,000 for Thessaly.

Epirus was 266,000 in the south at liberation (using the Greek 1920 census data since the population of Greece did not grow during ww1) plus around 76,000 more if my suggestion on Argyrokastro and Himara is accepted. By the same time the population of Thessaly was up to 438,000. So lets call it 215-235,000 TTL. Or a rough 600,000 for Thessaly and Epirus combined.

The Dodecanese to quote myself here https://www.alternatehistory.com/fo...greece-timeline.429475/page-124#post-20715779 had based on Ottoman statistics 63,580 Greeks around 1890 (Cuinet 1892 edition), 112,000 according to Greek statistics by 1912. So I'd estimate 50-60,000 in 1855.

Overall the Greeks have probably gained oh about 750-800,000 people without going to war. Not bad at all. :cool:
Your figure for the Ionian Islands is about right, it was around 236,000 in 1864 when it was ceded to Greece in OTL. ITTL in 1854, it has a population around 220,000 to 230,000 people. Thessaly as @Bloodmage has said is probably around 300,000 at this time, while the Dodecanese are somewhere in the ballpark of 60,000 people and Epirus has between 200,000 and 250,000 people. Added all up, its around 800,000 people, or a roughly 60% boost in Greece's population.

Not sure it will work well, yeah the moderate will have plenty of argument due to how they get the butter and the money from the butter. (A french idiom difficult to translate something like they keep their cake they ate), and if they get a period of prosperity the complaints will start to fade. However, the peace was signed few months before Qajari Empire joined the war, nationalists and militarists will affirm that if the Greeks have joined the war with the help of Qajari a victory would have been likely. Egypt would have joined the war and due to the revolt, the skills of the Greek army, they could have won the war in a few months and free millions of Greece, making greek gains. They could say that the Greeks signed a favorable treaty because they pushed the king and the moderate to ask for more when they were promised an island and that these gains were due to their actions. It's easy to make history after the event happened, and the result of war could have been different, but with all the success enjoyed by the greeks many will become arrogant and start to believe that a victory would have been easy and that this peace treaty was a missed opportunity.

The Ottomans promised amnesty, but after the war they would treat the greeks with suspicions seeing them as greedy people that profited of the war to steal Ottomans lands and make a profit on their back, they will consider the wealth amassed by the greek as theft, they will see Greece with jealousy, and many Ottomans greek will be attracted by the Greece state causing the Ottoman to see and treat them as a fifth column, pushing the Greek nationalists to ask for their liberation.

Also, the Ottoman Empire is in a more desperate situation, and due to the fight that greek rebels put in difficulty the Ottoman empire (even if they only fight a few second rate troops). They will surely treat the ottoman army with condescension.

All of these ingredients are a recipe for disaster if the situation escalates out of control in the future, also after the war the Ottoman empire will be a wounded beast full of paranoia, i'm afraid that the situation will become difficult for many minorities after the war.
These treaties will be rather contentious for quite some time, especially among the more nationalistic members of Greek society. Most generally have a good opinion of the Clarendon-Kolokotronis Treaty and Treaty of Constantinople as they effectively gained land and money without having to fire a single shot. Obviously, there will be those who say they could have gotten more if they had gone to war, but it would have come at a cost.

There will definitely be some bad blood between Greeks and the Ottomans going forward, but lets be honest, they were going to be at odds with one another eventually anyway, it was only a matter of time. Going forward relations between Greece and the Ottoman Empire will be quite tense, to say the least.

Greek Thessalonika when? Still glad with what the Greeks got here. Almost doubled the size of their kingdom without firing a single shot. Can't wait to see more.
They'll get it sooner than you might think.:biggrin:

It's a wonderful update, glad that Greece succeded in taking advantage of the situation
Thank you very much!

Its like asking a serial killer to vow he isn't going to kill anymore. But the Turks know the Greeks are not going to comply to this specific clause in the long term, they just want the legal moral ground when the next conflict with Greece comes.
Probably why they pushed for it. They know Greece will backstab them, so best to cut off any chance of the other powers intervening if they make that mistake.
Exactly. Its a clause added to treaties to discredit the renouncing state if they go back on their word and claim lands that they previously renounced. Granted, in the grand scheme of things it really doesn't do much, but it is an admittedly minor concession to the Ottomans that helps them save face.

I think general Spiros Milios is the commander of the greek army in TTL if I remember correctly. He was from Himara along with other prominent revolutionaries. So, at the very least there should be pressure by influential people to include Himara in this massive bribe.

Edit: Spyros Milios was the commandat of the Evelpidon Military School, my bad. To be fair he was defence minister multiple times.
Spyros Milios was the commandant of the Evelpidon School in 1840. He's a bit higher up the Hellenic Army's chain of command now and is probably one of Greece's leading Generals by 1854/1855.
 

Gian

Banned
Also @Earl Marshal, am I the only one to notice that the Treaty of Constantinople just gave the Souli valley to Greece along with the rest of southern Epirus? Because I bet that Markos Botsaris (assuming he's still alive) will be crying tears of joy at the sight of the Galanólefki over his beloved valley.
 
Also @Earl Marshal, am I the only one to notice that the Treaty of Constantinople just gave the Souli valley to Greece along with the rest of southern Epirus? Because I bet that Markos Botsaris (assuming he's still alive) will be crying tears of joy at the sight of the Galanólefki over his beloved valley.
Good eye!

The Souli Valley was just north of the 1830 border ITTL, which was a big sticking point for Botsaris and his Souliote compatriots in the post war years. With the 1855 Treaty of Constantinople, this issue has been rectified as the Souli Valley and much of Epirus will be ceded to Greece upon the war's end, which I've stated as being 1858 in the most recent update. By 1858, Markos Botsaris would be about 70 when Epirus is ceded to Greece ITTL, (which would surpass all of his immediate family members by a good margin), but because I think it would make for a better story, I'd say he was still alive at that time of the transfer, before dying shortly afterwards.
 
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Assuming you don’t want to just retcon your update I think the North Epirus issue kinda depends on how the war goes for the Ottomans. If it’s disaster or a Pyrrhic victory for the Ottomans I could see a situation where the Ottomans sell the land to the Greeks after another group of Partisans rise up there that they just don’t have the energy, men, or cash to deal with. The Greeks would be chomping at the bit to take a bite out of the weakened ottomans so this could buy peace. Or perhaps Russia pushes for it to be conceded to Greece in an attempt to balance the scales somewhat. I mean Britain just gave them a kings ransom without firing a shot. So they’re riding high on public opinion currently. Russia would probably like to counter that. They could even label it as a reward for the heroic Greek volunteers that assisted them during the war.

If the ottomans win I’m not sure how to get it to Greece without just altering the treaty last update. If it stays in Ottoman hands though it’ll be the constant sore spot people have about the treaty I think. That area of land has a lot of significance to the Greeks. Whatever you end up deciding I look forward to the next update.
 
This does make sense for all involved, but I'm concerned that this would be too much for Greece right now. They already gained Thessaly, the Ionian Islands, the Dodecanese Islands and most of Southern/Central Epirus; if they were to get Northern Epirus too that would definitely be pushing it in my opinion. I am strongly considering thi

That's why I limited this to only the westernmost part of North Epirus. In effect yes there is a difference of maybe 2-3,000 square km but that will be causing immensely less trouble for all involved. The Ottomans get rid of a rebellious area that economically keeping it down costs way more than it offers, the Greeks get a town that's way more significant for their political establishment than its size would guarantee, the Milios family comes from there and other Epirote notables would also have a vented interest supporting this, giving quite a push to supporters of the treaty. And the Ottomans also get Sazan island which is strategically rather more significant for them, lest they find themselves with a Greek fort there making Valona useless in wartime and threatening it constantly.
 
@Lascaris would Greece prefer Himara and Argyrokastro than the tiny yet strategically valuable Sazan island? To get Sazan in the Otranto Straits without Great Powers throwing a fit is a very rare event. On the other hand, Himara and Argyrokastro are now geographically exposed with Ioannina and Corfu in greek hands. The main east-west road that connects them with the ottoman power centers in Monastir and Salonica is cut off. The ottomans can reach the area only by the Aoos valley through a volatile sanjak of Berat. So, it seems to me that the area can be left as a ripe fruit, easy to pluck in the first opportune moment. On the other hand, Sazan gives unique geopolitical advantages and makes Greece a power in the Adriatic.

Remember, the fall of the Austrian Empire is very recent. Every single policy maker in Athens would know that Metternich would eat his hat before letting Greece control such an important island. So, it seems a very opportune moment to get it.

The military men from Himara will dislike it, but greek propagandists may want to leave Himara out for the moment and keep it a center for greek learning and culture that would serve propagandist purposes regarding the orthodox population of North Epirus and south Albania be they Greeks, Albanians or Vlachs. If Himara and Argyrokastro become greek they could be afraid that they will lose the traditional greek soft power tool -good schools.
 
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They'll get it sooner than you might think.
Once they have that the Ottomans will really be in a nasty position, it would not surprise me if they also gain the last few islands like Lesbos or Cyprus with that treaty.
That with their growing naval dominance could actually put them in a position to threaten Constantinople in the next great conflict unless they have a power like Britain having a go at their navy.
 
Epirus has a moderate tobacco and dairy industry
Regarding economy, the most valuable addition in Epirus is its human capital. Ioannina had pretty good schools that educated not only Greeks but the local muslim elite as well (Tourkoyianniotes). As the land around Ioannina and the Zagori villages was pretty poor, people looked to commerce to make their fortunes. Those landlubbers left seaborne trade for others and took up the old caravan roads in the Balkans. By the late 18th century, they had formed a vast trade network within the Austrian Empire and the Danubian Principalities. Their merchant colonies could be found in Vienna, Budapest, Zemun, Braila, Brasov and Trieste.

Speakig of human capital, it is important to understand that business education started early for the sons of 19th century greek merchants. As we see from 19th century authors such as Demetrios Vikelas, after school the teenagers had tutoring that was based in three cornerstones: foreign languages, business correspondence and double-entry bookkeeping. Vikelas at age 16 had to be excellent in at least 2 foreign languages, copy all the business correspondence of his family's business and do the books under close supervision. In modern terminology, they did internships after school.
 
@Lascaris would Greece prefer Himara and Argyrokastro than the tiny yet strategically valuable Sazan island? To get Sazan in the Otranto Straits without Great Powers throwing a fit is a very rare event. On the other hand, Himara and Argyrokastro are now geographically exposed with Ioannina and Corfu in greek hands. The main east-west road that connects them with the ottoman power centers in Monastir and Salonica is cut off. The ottomans can reach the area only by the Aoos valley through a volatile sanjak of Berat. So, it seems to me that the area can be left as a ripe fruit, easy to pluck in the first opportune moment. On the other hand, Sazan gives unique geopolitical advantages and makes Greece a power in the Adriatic.

Remember, the fall of the Austrian Empire is very recent. Every single policy maker in Athens would know that Metternich would eat his hat before letting Greece control such an important island. So, it seems a very opportune moment to get it.

The military men from Himara will dislike it, but greek propagandists may want to leave Himara out for the moment and keep it a center for greek learning and culture that would serve propagandist purposes regarding the orthodox population of North Epirus and south Albania be they Greeks, Albanians or Vlachs. If Himara and Argyrokastro become greek they could be afraid that they will lose the traditional greek soft power tool -good schools.

In OTL Greece virtually forgot the existence of Sazan between 1864 and Greek marines landing there in 1912. Then it was quite willing to give it up for other concessions. So between Sazan and Himara I think they'll choose Himara hands down.
 
Remember, the fall of the Austrian Empire is very recent. Every single policy maker in Athens would know that Metternich would eat his hat before letting Greece control such an important island. So, it seems a very opportune moment to get it.
Metternich resigned from the Austrian government in the late months of 1848,he could have returned,but given that he was in charge when the spring of nations happened and how he handled that situation,i imagine his political career is over

Edit:furthermore why not let Hellas/Greece have the Island better Hellas rather than Italy,the Ottomans or Britain,with Greece they dont have any overlapping spheres of influence other than trade and perhaps the balkans while italy if it gains Sazans can blockade the Adriatic sea and cut off Austria in a future war,the same can happen with the other two nations the ottomans and Britain, while Greece having it is a Concern, it is a lesser evil compared to other options.
The start of 1849 would see a number of changes to the Austrian government and military hierarchies in the hopes of improving their flagging positions in both Italy and Hungary. Firstly, Prince Felix of Schwarzenberg was appointed by Emperor Franz Joseph as the new Imperial Chancellor of the Austrian Empire on the 12th of January 1849. Since Klemens von Metternich’s resignation in late October
 
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In OTL Greece virtually forgot the existence of Sazan between 1864 and Greek marines landing there in 19
True, yet i cannot understand why. It is in one of the most strategic positions in the Mediterranean and controls Valona. Just a lighthouse and a gendarme station would be enough. Was it perhaps due to a perceived hostillity if such action was carried by the Habsburg Empire or the new Kingdom of Italy?
 
By the way, Olga Katsiardi-Hering is an academic that has researched in depth the greek mercantile communities in Central Europe. You can download her publications from her uni page. Some of them are in greek and german but quite a few are in english.

I forgot to mention that Ioannina had a long and proud tradition in silversmithing. In 1862 there were 26 workshops in the city with more in neighboring towns and villages. Between trade and silversmithing it makes sense that one of the first branches of the Ottoman Bank opened in Ioannina. Perhaps in TTL we may see Sotirios Voulgaris, the patriarch of the House Bulgari, to migrate in Athens instead of Rome.


So you can see why the unofficial motto of the city was "The best in arms, money and education". These were the three qualities they admired: valor in arms, profit through trade or craft and education.
 
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Excellent update, although it strikes me as weird how the rebels got Ioannina, it is not an easy city to capture and since it was an important city for the Ottoman I would expect it to be well-garrisoned . When Ali Pasha rebelled against the Ottoman Empire in 1820, it took the Ottoman army 16 months to complete the siege of Ioannina , from September 1820 to January 1822 (thus tying a lot of soldiers who would otherwise be sent in Rumelia and Peloponnese to stop the Greek Revolution).
All in all it is a great achievement for Hellas .
Finally, I would love to see an ageing Markos Botsaris entering Souli, kissing the ground and dying there shortly after.
 

Gian

Banned
BTW, not only did I make a VT-BAM, I made a GIF of all the expansions so far:
ezgif-com-gif-maker-1.gif
 
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