Hi guys, before I begin I'd like to offer some references for my line of thinking.
http://www.lermuseum.org/en/chronology/young-nation-1867-1898/the-triple-alliance-and-the-triple-entente-1890-1905/
"Bismarck negotiated the Triple Alliance with Austria-Hungary and Italy. Because of the long-standing hostility of Austria-Hungary toward Russia, however, he also negotiated a secret "Reinsurance Treaty" with the Russians. According to the terms of the treaty, Germany and Russia would remain neutral in the event that either nation was at war. France and Britain were bitter colonial rivals, and Bismarck counted on this rivalry to prevent any French-British co-operation. In an effort to maintain cordial relations with the British, he also refused to involve Germany in any colonial ventures.
In 1890, Kaiser Wilhelm II dismissed Bismarck and within five years had abandoned Bismarck’s carefully constructed diplomatic policies. He did not renew the Reinsurance Treaty with Russia and embarked upon an ambitious colonial policy and expansion of the German navy that provoked British hostility. By 1895, France and Russia had formed a military alliance. In 1905, Britain and France, both alarmed by Germany’s increasing naval power and aggressive colonial policies, negotiated the "Entente Cordiale." This treaty included provisions for military co-operation in the event that either signatory entered a war with Germany. Since the British government controlled the foreign policy of the dominions, this had the potential to involve Canada in a European conflict.Europe was thus dominated by two power blocs, the Triple Entente: France, Russia and Britain, and the Triple Alliance: Germany, Austria-Hungary, and Italy."
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anglo-Japanese_Alliance
"The first Anglo-Japanese Alliance (日英同盟, Nichi-Ei Dōmei?) was signed in London at what is now the Lansdowne Club,[1] on January 30, 1902, by Lord Lansdowne (British foreign secretary) and Hayashi Tadasu (Japanese minister in London). A diplomatic milestone for its ending of Britain's splendid isolation, the alliance was renewed and extended in scope twice, in 1905 and 1911, before its demise in 1921. It was officially terminated in 1923."
"The alliance was announced on February 12, 1902.[3] In response, Russia sought to form alliances with France and Germany, which Germany declined. On March 16, 1902, a mutual pact was signed between France and Russia. China and the United States were strongly opposed to the alliance. Nevertheless, the nature of the Anglo-Japanese alliance meant that France was unable to come to Russia's aid in the Russo-Japanese War of 1904 as this would have meant going to war with Britain."
http://hnn.us/articles/121083.html
"and I found that in the summer of 1905, President Theodore Roosevelt -- the Nobel Peace Prize Committee didn’t know, the Senate didn’t know -- agreed to a treaty where America and Japan would walk hand in hand onto the Asian continent to take it over. And Japan needed Korea as a springboard for that plan. Roosevelt in a secret treaty agrees to give Korea to Japan. He lights the match on this situation that Franklin Delano Roosevelt would later deal with in World War 2."
"The Columbia professor, who I cite in the book, says the great question of the 20th Century is going be whether Asia is Anglo-Saxon or Slav. Because the Chinese, they are a declining race. So Roosevelt looked at Asia with a theoretical lens, with theories that told him China was going to crumble like an old barn. More vigorous countries were going to move into that territory. The three countries that Roosevelt saw this being were Britain, the U.S., and Japan. His theories told him that Japan was an ascending race, China was a descending race. America was going to put its bet on Japan and he calculated incorrectly that Japan would listen to America and only expand so far. Roosevelt’s minister to Beijing wrote [to the effect that] definitely Japan jumping into Korea, that will be the far extension of the Japanese empire, we can be sure."
Okay, enough reference material. Here's what I propose could have prevented world war 2.
1. Whether or not Bismarck is dismissed in 1890 or not, the kaiser keeps some of his policies in place. While still seeking rapid military expansion, he shows greater respect for the diplomatic webs that had been spun. In particular he continues to uphold the secret treaty with russia regarding neutrality.
2. When Russia comes seeking an alliance from Germany to counter the alliance between Britain and Japan, the pre-existing treaty between them opens the door somewhat. The tensions with Germany's ally Austrio-hungary prove too great to overcome, however Germany pledges to exercise its political will so that Austrio-Hungary keeps its neutrality in the likely event of a Japanese-Russia war. In return, Russia will not seek an alliance with France, Germany's long standing enemy.
3. In light of these agreements, russia is compelled to seek allies elsewhere, in particular the United States. The Russian ambassadors paint a grim picture of what a japanese-british alliance could mean for the pacific.
4. War breaks out between Russia and Japan. The conflict proves far bloodier than on our world. The Japanese, emboldened by their victories, strike at Russia's fleet without mercy. Theodore Roosevelt looks on, believing he has deeply underestimated the scope of Japan's ambitions in the Pacific.
5. The West stands shocked at the Japanese victory. In our timeline, this caused a rise in prestige for Japan and a loss of prestige for Russia. However, the cost and scope of the war in this alternate history is so great that Germany views the matter far less as a matter of incompetence on the part of Russia and far more as an indication of the power of Japan and their allies the British. Seeing their own rise back onto the European stage as threatened, and given the standing albeit tenous treaty between themselves and Russia, Germany seeks to negotiate a new treaty.
6. Roosevelt is compelled to negotiate in secret with Russia as well, rather than with the Japanese.
7. As in our world, France and Britain seek to ease tensions between the two colonial rivals, paving the way for a Franco-British alliance and adding to the urgency.
8. A formal alliance is announced between Russia, Germany and the United States. As a show of good faith, Russia reduces troop numbers in the Balkans while Germany exercise its diplomatic muscles and strong arms Austrio-Hungary into withdrawing from Bosnia and Herzegovnia.
http://www.lermuseum.org/en/chronology/young-nation-1867-1898/the-triple-alliance-and-the-triple-entente-1890-1905/
"Bismarck negotiated the Triple Alliance with Austria-Hungary and Italy. Because of the long-standing hostility of Austria-Hungary toward Russia, however, he also negotiated a secret "Reinsurance Treaty" with the Russians. According to the terms of the treaty, Germany and Russia would remain neutral in the event that either nation was at war. France and Britain were bitter colonial rivals, and Bismarck counted on this rivalry to prevent any French-British co-operation. In an effort to maintain cordial relations with the British, he also refused to involve Germany in any colonial ventures.
In 1890, Kaiser Wilhelm II dismissed Bismarck and within five years had abandoned Bismarck’s carefully constructed diplomatic policies. He did not renew the Reinsurance Treaty with Russia and embarked upon an ambitious colonial policy and expansion of the German navy that provoked British hostility. By 1895, France and Russia had formed a military alliance. In 1905, Britain and France, both alarmed by Germany’s increasing naval power and aggressive colonial policies, negotiated the "Entente Cordiale." This treaty included provisions for military co-operation in the event that either signatory entered a war with Germany. Since the British government controlled the foreign policy of the dominions, this had the potential to involve Canada in a European conflict.Europe was thus dominated by two power blocs, the Triple Entente: France, Russia and Britain, and the Triple Alliance: Germany, Austria-Hungary, and Italy."
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anglo-Japanese_Alliance
"The first Anglo-Japanese Alliance (日英同盟, Nichi-Ei Dōmei?) was signed in London at what is now the Lansdowne Club,[1] on January 30, 1902, by Lord Lansdowne (British foreign secretary) and Hayashi Tadasu (Japanese minister in London). A diplomatic milestone for its ending of Britain's splendid isolation, the alliance was renewed and extended in scope twice, in 1905 and 1911, before its demise in 1921. It was officially terminated in 1923."
"The alliance was announced on February 12, 1902.[3] In response, Russia sought to form alliances with France and Germany, which Germany declined. On March 16, 1902, a mutual pact was signed between France and Russia. China and the United States were strongly opposed to the alliance. Nevertheless, the nature of the Anglo-Japanese alliance meant that France was unable to come to Russia's aid in the Russo-Japanese War of 1904 as this would have meant going to war with Britain."
http://hnn.us/articles/121083.html
"and I found that in the summer of 1905, President Theodore Roosevelt -- the Nobel Peace Prize Committee didn’t know, the Senate didn’t know -- agreed to a treaty where America and Japan would walk hand in hand onto the Asian continent to take it over. And Japan needed Korea as a springboard for that plan. Roosevelt in a secret treaty agrees to give Korea to Japan. He lights the match on this situation that Franklin Delano Roosevelt would later deal with in World War 2."
"The Columbia professor, who I cite in the book, says the great question of the 20th Century is going be whether Asia is Anglo-Saxon or Slav. Because the Chinese, they are a declining race. So Roosevelt looked at Asia with a theoretical lens, with theories that told him China was going to crumble like an old barn. More vigorous countries were going to move into that territory. The three countries that Roosevelt saw this being were Britain, the U.S., and Japan. His theories told him that Japan was an ascending race, China was a descending race. America was going to put its bet on Japan and he calculated incorrectly that Japan would listen to America and only expand so far. Roosevelt’s minister to Beijing wrote [to the effect that] definitely Japan jumping into Korea, that will be the far extension of the Japanese empire, we can be sure."
Okay, enough reference material. Here's what I propose could have prevented world war 2.
1. Whether or not Bismarck is dismissed in 1890 or not, the kaiser keeps some of his policies in place. While still seeking rapid military expansion, he shows greater respect for the diplomatic webs that had been spun. In particular he continues to uphold the secret treaty with russia regarding neutrality.
2. When Russia comes seeking an alliance from Germany to counter the alliance between Britain and Japan, the pre-existing treaty between them opens the door somewhat. The tensions with Germany's ally Austrio-hungary prove too great to overcome, however Germany pledges to exercise its political will so that Austrio-Hungary keeps its neutrality in the likely event of a Japanese-Russia war. In return, Russia will not seek an alliance with France, Germany's long standing enemy.
3. In light of these agreements, russia is compelled to seek allies elsewhere, in particular the United States. The Russian ambassadors paint a grim picture of what a japanese-british alliance could mean for the pacific.
4. War breaks out between Russia and Japan. The conflict proves far bloodier than on our world. The Japanese, emboldened by their victories, strike at Russia's fleet without mercy. Theodore Roosevelt looks on, believing he has deeply underestimated the scope of Japan's ambitions in the Pacific.
5. The West stands shocked at the Japanese victory. In our timeline, this caused a rise in prestige for Japan and a loss of prestige for Russia. However, the cost and scope of the war in this alternate history is so great that Germany views the matter far less as a matter of incompetence on the part of Russia and far more as an indication of the power of Japan and their allies the British. Seeing their own rise back onto the European stage as threatened, and given the standing albeit tenous treaty between themselves and Russia, Germany seeks to negotiate a new treaty.
6. Roosevelt is compelled to negotiate in secret with Russia as well, rather than with the Japanese.
7. As in our world, France and Britain seek to ease tensions between the two colonial rivals, paving the way for a Franco-British alliance and adding to the urgency.
8. A formal alliance is announced between Russia, Germany and the United States. As a show of good faith, Russia reduces troop numbers in the Balkans while Germany exercise its diplomatic muscles and strong arms Austrio-Hungary into withdrawing from Bosnia and Herzegovnia.