Prevent the rise of the Khmer Rogue regime

If Sihanouk is not around, as long as North Vietnam wins who is to stop the Khmer Rouge from taking power unless there is a strong domestic presence that is friendly with Vietnam? Without Sihanouk, you have no hope of having a pro-Vietnam government. Sihanouk was a sell out, but not a puppet. A sihanoukless government is a US puppet, and if so, will inevitably allow the Khmer Rouge to take power as North Vietnam will win eventually.

Are you aware that after Sihanouk was deposed the North Vietnamese and the Chinese communists made an offer to the Lon Nol government in 1970? Their offer was that they would not support the Khmer Rouge and regard the deposement of Sihanouk as an internal matter if the Sihanouk trail remained open. There were also other economic incentives on offer, which were declined by the Lon Nol government.
 
You know, without the Khmer Rogue in power ITTL, would the Sino-Vietnamese War get butterflied away like I thought it could? I'm just very curious.
 
Are you aware that after Sihanouk was deposed the North Vietnamese and the Chinese communists made an offer to the Lon Nol government in 1970? Their offer was that they would not support the Khmer Rouge and regard the deposement of Sihanouk as an internal matter if the Sihanouk trail remained open. There were also other economic incentives on offer, which were declined by the Lon Nol government.

Given that Lon Nol was our boy, that wasn't going to happen.
 
Given that Lon Nol was our boy, that wasn't going to happen.

It is unlikely that Lon Nol would have accepted their offer as per otl, after all he was an avowed anti communist. He was also woefully ill equipped to handle the top job, but that is a different discussion.

If the OP wants Cambodia to avoid the predations of the Khmer Rouge with a pod post 1970, than you will need a different Khmer Republic from otl. Which implies butterflies prior to 1970, in order to simultaneously improve an anaemic economy, reform a sclerotic bureaucracy and expand a tiny Army. When we combine these problems with the adverse security situation faced by the Cambodians, the difficulty approaches that of threading a camel through the eye of a needle.
 
You know, I wonder how would the prevention of the 1970 coup in Cambodia have on the world? especially in the midst of the ever so controversial Vietnam War?
 
Are you aware that after Sihanouk was deposed the North Vietnamese and the Chinese communists made an offer to the Lon Nol government in 1970? Their offer was that they would not support the Khmer Rouge and regard the deposement of Sihanouk as an internal matter if the Sihanouk trail remained open. There were also other economic incentives on offer, which were declined by the Lon Nol government.
How is this contrary to my point? Lon Nol won't play with the NV. That means the KR take power in that event.
 
How is this contrary to my point? Lon Nol won't play with the NV. That means the KR take power in that event.

I was referring to your assertion that the Communists would not treat with any other participant other than Sihanouk is incorrect, as their offer to Lon Nol via Sisowath Sirik Matik attests.

We are in agreement about the probability that the Khmer Rouge will take over, barring an amazing series of events the Cambodian goose is cooked after 1970.
 
The only way this is possible is if Sihanouk does not get sick (and thereby avoids his trip to France, which allowed the 1970 coup to occur), he purges the military (and nips the coup at the bud), overtly makes overtures to the US and aggressively assists in fighting North Vietnam (averting the 1970 coup), or as a wildcard he declares war on the US and openly seeks North Vietnamese support.

I have always thought that Sihanouk had an excellent grasp of the strategic situation besetting Cambodia, and he understood the likelihood that the North Vietnamese would eventually triumph. His diplomatic overtures with the Communist Chinese were designed as a way to counterbalance a unified Communist Vietnam. However, I think he needed a capable # 2, IMO In Tam would be an excellent choice and far better than Lon Nol.

The best outcome for Cambodia would be a position analogous to Finland during the Cold War, which requires a pragmatic and capable political class.
 
Top