alternatehistory.com

In various ways, the Russo-Japanese War was a more close-run thing than it tends to appear. On the surface (cue Russian Navy jokes), you have a string of Japanese victories punctuated by a few draws, culminating in the fall of Port Arthur (unnecessary) and the legitimate disasters at Mukden and Tsushima. But the Japanese had burned through their reserves and one well-placed loss might have changed everybody’s calculations.

My thought in this regard is the Battle of the Yellow Sea. Happening in August of 1904, it was months before the fall of Port Arthur, and roughly half a year and nearly a year before Mukden and Tsushima, respectively.

It was triggered by the Japanese capturing a couple of hills overlooking the harbor, which in turn caused the Tsar to panic and side with the local Viceroy, who had been been calling for naval sorties. This in turn forced the Pacific Squadron’s commander, Admiral Vitgeft, to try and make a break for Vladivostok. (As an aside, Russian attempts to mess with Japanese shipping to this point had not been a failure, with cruiser raids having taken out a number of transports, including one carrying 18 siege guns; see Hitachi Maru Incident)

The battle itself was give and take for most of the day, with errors on both sides contributing to significant damage to both sides, but nothing decisive. This culminated with Togo’s remaining effective ships chasing Vitgeft’s larger (but less effective) force near dusk. Here Togo caught a break, when the battleship Asahi rolled a 20 and, with one salvo, hit the Russian flagship Tsesarevich's bridge, killing Vitgeft, his staff, and jamming the battleship in a turn.

Thereafter some of the Russians performed heroics, some made a break for the open ocean and internment in a neutral port, and the bulk of the squadron returned to Port Arthur, where it sat until the Japanese Army managed to sink the lot from the vantage of the aforementioned hills, Napoleon-style. Thereafter Mukden and then the Baltic squadron arriving to die.

This seems like a pretty random turning point, though. Sans lucky hit, the Russians were mostly intact, the Japanese had taken as much damage as they had handed out, and incipient nightfall gave the Russian fleet a good chance to break for Vladivostok. Assuming Asahi doesn’t manage the critical hit and Vitgeft gets his battleships out, it seems to me that the war possibly takes a turn. The Pacific squadron remains intact and ready to rendezvous with the relief squadron months later, making *Tsushima potentially a very different affair.

At the same time, a lot of the strategic reason for taking Port Arthur via grinding siege warfare has evaporated, and the Japanese don’t have that much to show for their blood and treasure to date. Worse, the supply situation is still tenuous and the Russians can still try to sorty, at least in theory.

Morale at home will take a hit, and this might lead to the replacement of General Nogi (running the siege), who had been under pressure to eliminate the Russian fleet before the Baltic squadron arrived.
I figure there’s a chance that, at this point, the Japanese look for a way out. They don’t know how well *Tsushima or a similar battle of annihilation will go, the Russians have one guy who now has decent experience fighting them, and *Mukden hasn’t happened yet. And, as mentioned, they are running low on reserves.

1. Viable? The Japanese were stubborn and willing to gamble. But I don’t see their next move if the Russian fleet-in-being is waiting in Vladivostok, nowhere near the army.

2. The Russians are still in a world of hurt, strategically. I figure if there is victory to be snatched from the jaws of defeat, it’s at the negotiating table.

3. If the Japanese don’t comprehensively defeat the Russians, is the emotional impact on revolutionary/anti-colonialist forces as pronounced? This is no longer clear-cut proof that Europeans can be defeated (though the Japanese performance has still been more solid than most expected.)

4. What happens in 1905 if Russian military honor is still kinda-sorta intact? Does it fizzle?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hitachi_Maru_Incident
Top