Presidents of a British Commonwealth

WI some extreme scandals somehow created a Republican majority (I am guesssing a combination of proof that some wholly unsuitable person is the biological heir rather than Queen Elizabeth and a major cock up of the Diana thing)

Britain elects a ceremonial President who is separate from the Prime Minister.

Who would get elected.

My thoughts, if she survived longer Mo Mowlem

John Major

Paddy Ashdown

Any other thoughts
 
All depends on when. I've done a few speculative pieces on it, here's one I did about the 1997 Dianagate change:

Neil Kinnock (28 March 1942 – 15 September 2013) died yesterday, it has been announced. The former President passed away peacefully in his sleep after a two year struggle with cancer.

Assured his place in the history books as the man who made 'New Labour' possible, Kinnock seemed ready to retire from public life after the surprise victory of John Major in 1992. But it was in 1998 that, in the wake of the abolition of the monarchy triggered by the Diana Crisis, he was approached by Peter Mandelson and Tony Blair (then Prime Minister) and offered the Labour candidacy for the first ever British Presidential Elections in 1999. His Tory opponent Chris Patten was convincingly defeated thanks to Labour's huge popularity at the time, and Kinnock soon settled into the highly ceremonial role that what had been termed 'the Irish-model Presidency' became. It was he who led Britain's tributes to the victims of the September 2001 terrorist attacks and he who Britons rallied around after our own brush with terrorism in 2005. After serving two immensely successful five-year-terms, Kinnock stepped down in 2009, with his endorsement doing little good for the flagging Labour candidate, Margaret Beckett, defeated as she was by none other than John Major.

The man credited with the first steps towards New Labour will also, ironically, enter the history books as the man who undermined its golden boy. Tony Blair's personal popularity took a number of hits on controversial policies over the years - not least the Iraq War - and in matters where he would have sought to claim personal credit on behalf of the nation, the ever-present Kinnock would often steal the show. Pushed from office less than a year after the 2005 election, Blair gave way to Gordon Brown, who in turn lost the 2010 election to David Cameron and ended 13 years of Labour politicians in either constitutional high office of our Republic.

President Cable led tributes to Kinnock yesterday from the steps of Britain House, calling him 'a pioneer to a whole generation, and one of the most resilient politicians of our time'. President-elect Farage joined the tributes, saying that while he and Kinnock had disagreed on 'the Europe question', he had always found him a 'thoroughly decent, committed and respectable politician whose first thought was always the people of this great country'. From abroad, former Vice President Biden led American tributes to 'one of my finest speechwriters' - a joking throwback to the controversy that surrounded Biden's plagiarism from Kinnock's own speeches.

He leaves behind his wife, Glenys, his daughter, Rachel and his son, Stephen, who is married to the Danish Prime Minister Helle Thorning-Schmidt. He will be missed most of all, said Glenys yesterday, by his four grandchildren.
 
I think it's not impossible that after QE2 dies, and Charles succeeds her then we might have a British Commonwealth by 2025. If that happens then it depends how the ceremonial President is elected: is it by popular vote, or by Parliament which is the case in many countries with ceremonial, rather than political Presidencies. I don't think politicians would be strong candidates a lot of the time - I think some other prominent individuals would be brought in, from arts, sciences, maybe business.

In your timeline, was John Major PM before becoming President? If he was a PM in anything like the way he was in OTL he'd never be able to become President. Paddy Ashdown, Mo Mowlam, perhaps.
 
I think it's not impossible that after QE2 dies, and Charles succeeds her then we might have a British Commonwealth by 2025. If that happens then it depends how the ceremonial President is elected: is it by popular vote, or by Parliament which is the case in many countries with ceremonial, rather than political Presidencies. I don't think politicians would be strong candidates a lot of the time - I think some other prominent individuals would be brought in, from arts, sciences, maybe business.

In your timeline, was John Major PM before becoming President? If he was a PM in anything like the way he was in OTL he'd never be able to become President. Paddy Ashdown, Mo Mowlam, perhaps.

If you look at how popular Major is now IOTL it's quite conceivable for him to become a ceremonial Irish-style President IMO.
 

AndyC

Donor
How about having a PoD further back to get a few more Presidencies in. Let's go back to the revolutionary Sixties ...

--------------

A Very British Presidency: the first 50 years of the British Presidential Elections

Following the heavily publicised campaign by Anthony Wedgewood Benn, the second Viscount Stansgate, the Peerage Act of 1963 permitted owners of hereditary titles to disclaim their peerages. It became widely recognised that "nobility" could be a curse as well as a blessing. The nascent Republican movement seized upon this theme in their campaign through the early Sixties, building upon Tony Benn's successful campaign through the Fifties.

The revelation that the teenage Prince of Wales was being bullied at Gordonstoun proved a godsend for the Movement, as they constantly questioned whether this "hapless boy" should be forced into a lifetime of public service. The atmosphere of these times cannot be overlooked as a factor in the campaign, with the younger generation constantly questioning the way things had always been and seeking excuses to rebel against "The Establishment".

After the Great March of 1966, Prime Minister Wilson finally, and reluctantly, agreed to allow a free vote on a Private Members Bill that would put the matter to a public referendum. It is recorded that he was privately stunned at the large number of Labour MPs who voted for the bill, which passed by a majority of 17 votes in early 1967. In October 1967, the referendum was held.

The dislike of establishment figures for referendums was certainly a factor in the low turnout, as was the refusal of the Queen to make any comment on the issue. The shock victory for the "Yes" side was shown to be reliant on the boycotting of the event by a large component of the older generation. Nevertheless, the first British Presidential Election was set for Saturday the 1st of June, 1968 ...

...

It reportedly took a private plea by the former PM Alec Douglas-Home to convince Elizabeth Windsor to stand for the newly created Presidency, but once she decided to do so, the result was never in doubt. Ironically, by doing so, her actions doubtless legitimised the institution in the eyes of many who had denied the validity of the referendum result ...

... It wasn't until the third Presidential Election, in June 1976, that a genuine contest was experienced. President Windsor, runnig for her third successive term, came against the wily political operator Harold Wilson who had recently resigned as Prime Minister. In Wilson's memoirs, he revealed that his resignation had been triggered by a combination of his personal recognition that his once-formidable mental powers were starting to desert him and the distaste of his wife, Mary, for politics. He had therefore decided that a single term as the ceremonial President would be the perfect cap for his career and a recognition of his long-suffering wife as First Lady of the UK. It is ironic that although his intention was to be as apolitical as possible in the role if he had won, his candidacy was forever after seen as the one which politicised the Presidency. Nevertheless, President Windsor won re-election but by a far-diminished majority.

The Callaghan Government passed legislation in 1977 to impose a term-limit on the Presidency. An anonymous quote from the Labour backbenches was later ascribed to Dennis Skinner after it was widely circulated in the tabloid newspapers: "otherwise we'll simply be under the same woman for life anyway - it's just the bloody title that's changed". This act, limiting all future Presidencies to a maximum of two terms, has been cited as one of the reasons for the Labour loss in 1979 - being seen as an act of spite against the still widely popular former Queen passed near to the date when her Silver Jubilee would have been held if the monarchy was still in existence - but the economic situation would certainly have made a victory in such conditions extremely challenging in any case.

...

The first Presidential Election held on genuinely party lines was won by James Callaghan on the 6th of June 1980, in what has been termed the "Buyer's Remorse" Election. The event had far-reaching implications around the Commonwealth. As the same person had remained Head of State for the United Kingdom, they had dealt with the constitutional change by the well-precedented method of ignoring it until the situation became impossible to ignore. Elizabeth Windsor had remained Queen of Canada, Australia, New Zealand and many other Commonwealth Countries, despite losing her title in her homeland.

"We're not going to let any bloody Poms tell us who we can and can't have as Queen" was the theme in Australia, which was echoed in Canada (albeit in somewhat different words). It is ironic that this incident quite possibly saved the monarchy in these countries, as constitutional experts have often opined that in the absence of the Travelling Court, both countries would have voted themselves into Republican status themselves by the turn of the century. Prince Phillip was unofficially reported to be strongly in favour of the residency of the court in Ottawa during the summer months and Canberra during the winter and the wedding of Prince Charles to Lady Diana Spencer in 1981 solidified the monarchy during these turbulent times. The author will note, however, that the title of "Prince of New South Wales" was an ironic nickname bestowed at the time and does not have any constitutional legitimacy.

...

President Callaghan was defeated in the 1984 election by the Conservative candidate, Willie Whitelaw, signifying the first time that the Presidency and Prime Ministership were held by the same political party. The tight election was not declared until a full recount was held and supporters of the outgoing President were known to be privately blaming Roy Jenkin's candidacy for "splitting the anti-Tory vote".

...

The election of 1988 held no surprises, as President Whitelaw won re-election easily ...

... The 1992 Presidental Election, on the 6th of June 1992 saw the first contest between Presidential candidates who had formerly faced each other in a General Election. The battle between Margaret Thatcher and Neil Kinnock was very bad tempered and resulted in the election of the second female President of the United Kingdom. The ousting of Mrs Thatcher as Leader of the Conservative Party in 1990 doubtless contributed to her narrow victory, as a number of diehard Thatcherites seized the chance to vote again for their heroine in conditions where the negative aspects of her Premiership had apparently been overcome by her successor. However, her election proved to be hugely damaging for the Conservative Party, as her many disagreements with her successor became public knowledge and contributed to the perception of the Tories as a hopelessly split Party.

...

In 1996, Mrs Thatcher chose not to stand for re-election, citing disillusionment with the lack of true power of the Presidency. It had been expected that a "New Labour" candidate would sweep the field, but the candidacy of the maverick Labour backbencher Ken Livingstone as an "Independent Old Labour" candidate following his failure to secure the nomination as an official Labour candidate split the field. Anne Windsor, Princess Royal of the Commonwealth, won a colossaly split vote, riding an anti-politican tide and defeating Mr Livingstone, Jeffrey Archer, David Owen, David Steel, Frank Dobson (the official Labour candidate) and James Goldsmith. Her victory with barely 28% of the vote triggered the change of the system to the two-round runoff system we use today.

The second President Windsor never recovered from her loss of popularity following her perceived unsympathetic reaction to the death of Lady Diana in Paris in 1997, but has been creditted with the movement of the Presidency back away from partisan politics ...

...

The 2000 Presidential Election was a landslide win for Betty Boothroyd, the Labour candidate. Mrs Boothroyd was widely creditted with building on the work of President Anne Windsor in reinforcing the movement away from "petty party politics". She was invariably perceived as impartial, despite having originally been elected as a Labour MP and being the Labour Presidential candidate, and the Sun christened her "Queen Elizabeth the Third". Her re-election in 2004 was a mere formality ...

...

In 2008, despite the horrified campaign of the Guardian newspaper, Boris Johnson won election as President of the UK ...
 

Quite an apt description I feel :D.

The move from a United Kingdom to United Commonwealth (the term Republic seems a little unlikely for my tastes) would be accompanied by Referendums - likely just the one on a move to a ceremonial presidency, though 1 on presidency vs monarchy and 1 on ceremonial vs executive may just be possible.

I'd also point out that the Term of the (Ceremonial) President would in all likelihood be set at longer than the Parliament's to ensure a stable handover - so 7 years seems reasonable with perhaps legislation to avoid Parliament and the Presidency being elected within 2 months of each other.
 
I'd also like to table an amendment:
No person who has previously held the office of Prime Minister or Leader of the Opposition shall be eligible to become President of the Commonwealth of Great Britain....

Queen Elizabeth the Third? Fucking Aye! :D
 
Wonderful setup, Andy. I love it when people run with ideas like this in open threads. I really enjoyed reading it, even if it is something of a dystopia by the end!
 

AndyC

Donor
Wonderful setup, Andy. I love it when people run with ideas like this in open threads. I really enjoyed reading it, even if it is something of a dystopia by the end!

Thanks - I enjoyed writing it. I absolutely had to have Betty Boothroyd as President and I just couldn't resist President Boris at the end ...

(And as for a dystopia - this coming from the man who gave us President-elect Farage ... :) )

As an aside - I agree with you that Major would have a shot at such a thing - ISTR that the Tories were after him to stand for London Mayor in 2008 originally for just that reason.
 
I'm not sold on this amusing contention that the Commonwealth realms will remain such if the "mother country" goes republican.
 

AndyC

Donor
I'm not sold on this amusing contention that the Commonwealth realms will remain such if the "mother country" goes republican.

It's a bit of a stretch, I'll freely admit, but we should never underestimate the power of inertia.
 
Why not have a real American-style President/Veep and less uncertainty on coalitions and an extra constitutional check?

Is the problem that it works too well for us?;);):cool::cool:
 
It's a bit of a stretch, I'll freely admit, but we should never underestimate the power of inertia.

Well, Canada seems the mostly likely to hold on to monarchy. It's arguably the biggest single thing differentiating Canada from its neighbor to the south and northwest. Furthermore, it would be a means of promoting Canadian unity in a time of increasing Quebecois discontent.
 
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