Presidential WI: Edmund Muskie Drops Out After Florida

Came across this while perusing through my copy of Fear and Loathing on the Campaign Trail.

Muskie by the time Florida rolled around really badly needed a win, something to boost his momentum, and the hope was Florida would provide that sought after victory despite the presence of George Wallace (whom many thought would top at around 20-22%). The pollsters, who had considered the state to be tossed up between Humphrey and Muskie, were quite rattled when Wallace came from behind and carried the primary with 42% of the vote, Humphrey taking 16%, and Muskie with a meager 9%. Ed was hit relatively hard by the loss, and after some time, decided to call a press conference the next day to announce that he was going to withdraw from the race.

Now, he did this without mention to any of his campaign staff or any of his notable supporters who, either further demoralized or incensed, took him aside, convinced him to cancel the conference, and some time later to continue his campaign for the nomination. However despite Muskie's new commitment to the campaign, the staff overall were demoralized given their candidate's perception that the nomination was no longer really there. After further defeats in Wisconsin and Pennsylvania (Massachusetts, some time before considered a state Muskie could carry quite easily, was written off as a lost cause by the time it came around), Ed Muskie finally called it quits.

However, lets suppose that Muskie decides against canceling that press conference on the 15th of March, and announces his withdrawal from the primaries, but does not endorse any other candidate (still hoping to potentially become a compromise candidate at the Convention). Might Humphrey win Wisconsin, and stunt McGovern's momentum?
 
Alright, well, these are my thoughts:

Muskie I think would endorse Humphrey shortly after his concession, Hubert having established himself as the significant "centrist" candidate between McGovern's Left and Wallace's Right. A lot of Muskie's former staff and volunteers go on over to the Warrior's campaign.

McCarthy wins the Illinois Primary, Muskie having pulled his name and no other challengers having entered. Course there are no delegates at risk, so it is all for naught.

McGovern still wins Wisconsin, but in a squeaker; the momentum was behind George, and I can't see that changing with Muskie getting behind Humphrey other than slowing the bleeding of Muskie's base to other candidates. That, and Muskie's support would not universally move towards Humphrey simply because Muskie had endorsed him. However, Muskie's people, his campaign staff and volunteers, no longer demoralized due to no longer representing him, and more effective, and help bring in some additional votes. I'm looking at something like a half-point margin for McGovern (he having around 28% of the vote), still giving him a big win, but not the stunning result of OTL.

Throughout the rest of the season, Humphrey would collect more delegates as his margins of victory increase, enough that McGovern is effectively tied or behind him in that count. Nebraska I would consider a toss-up between the two by the time it comes around, with Rhode Island in a similar situation. California and New Mexico I can see being won by Humphrey, the former being critical given its Winner-Take-All position.

The Democratic Convention will likely be a mess unless McGovern has dropped out, though Humphrey should come out the nominee in either case. Edmund Muskie could very well end up Humphrey's running mate again, though I imagine there will be significant pressure to choose another candidate.

The two still go down in flaming defeat (though as one would expect, not nearly as bad as OTL) setting up McGovern as the heir apparent in '76.
 
The two still go down in flaming defeat (though as one would expect, not nearly as bad as OTL) setting up McGovern as the heir apparent in '76.

I think this is the result, yes. But McGovern isn't spoiled. If McGovern is heir apparent and is able to use his proper grassroots to fend of insurgent Gov. Carter, he ought be able pull off the nomination. But can he defeat President Ford? Vietnam is no longer a major issue, what would McGovern run as?

McGovern/Carter '76?
 
McGovern still wins Wisconsin, but in a squeaker; the momentum was behind George, and I can't see that changing with Muskie getting behind Humphrey other than slowing the bleeding of Muskie's base to other candidates...

Throughout the rest of the season, Humphrey would collect more delegates as his margins of victory increase, enough that McGovern is effectively tied or behind him in that count...

The Democratic Convention will likely be a mess unless McGovern has dropped out, though Humphrey should come out the nominee in either case. Edmund Muskie could very well end up Humphrey's running mate again, though I imagine there will be significant pressure to choose another candidate.

I won't bother trying to remember what the good doctor had to say about Muskie's chances and their effect on HHH, 'cos he had the Mainer pinned as an evil warmongering union-supporter (you kids you haven't read FALOTCT should realise HST's attempts at serious point making all come from a near-AH-type leftlibertarian perspective, of a type which isn't even really compatible with the New Left of 1972--no women's libbers or non-whites appear in that book, for instance) but I do trust Rick Perlstein's sketch of McGovern as the delegate collecting strategic genius.

McGovern won't go down unless his own campaign is damaged; a more effective popular vote splitting effort by his opponents isn't enough to do this damage, IMO, not when he's the man with the national convention credentials process on his side.
 
I think this is the result, yes. But McGovern isn't spoiled. If McGovern is heir apparent and is able to use his proper grassroots to fend of insurgent Gov. Carter, he ought be able pull off the nomination. But can he defeat President Ford? Vietnam is no longer a major issue, what would McGovern run as?

McGovern/Carter '76?
He'd run on the remainder of his platform, which consisted of a negative flat tax, amnesty for draft-dodgers, cutting defense, reorganizing the mess of social welfare programs, and support for the Equal Rights Amendment.

The Democratic nomination in '76 would be McGovern's to lose, and I think he would tap Birch Bayh to be his running mate, or possibly Church or Mondale.

I won't bother trying to remember what the good doctor had to say about Muskie's chances and their effect on HHH, 'cos he had the Mainer pinned as an evil warmongering union-supporter (you kids you haven't read FALOTCT should realise HST's attempts at serious point making all come from a near-AH-type leftlibertarian perspective, of a type which isn't even really compatible with the New Left of 1972--no women's libbers or non-whites appear in that book, for instance) but I do trust Rick Perlstein's sketch of McGovern as the delegate collecting strategic genius.

McGovern won't go down unless his own campaign is damaged; a more effective popular vote splitting effort by his opponents isn't enough to do this damage, IMO, not when he's the man with the national convention credentials process on his side.
Yes, Thompson has a way of making his opinions quite clear. :D

I can see McGovern having the most delegates at the Convention, again as you mentioned because he knew the rules of the game and how to best take advantage of them. However, the road is much less clear, given he no longer has the California delegation (273 delegates), whom have been captured by Humphrey, and there is likely to be some very slight movement in Humphrey's favor (50-60 delegates). There wouldn't be enough delegates for McGovern to actually earn the nomination unless Humphrey himself dropped out, which wouldn't happen.

Unfortunately for Humphrey, the math doesn't favor him any more, arguably even less, and he would have to cut some sort of deal with George Wallace, which I believe would have required the Veep slot and certain platform changes towards the Right. At least I think those were the conditions he laid out publicly.
 
After his less than expected victory in New Hampshire, I don't think Muskie had much influence. I think you need this and something else to stop McGovern. If Humphrey wins the nomination, it just shrinks Nixon's margin of victory.
 
I'd say Nixon 55 percent Humphrey 43 percent HumphreyArkansas
carries Massachusettes, Rhode Island, New York, Wisconsin, and mMinnasota.
 
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