Presidential Primaries w/ no 9/11

I was thinking about what would the '04,'08,'12,and '16 Primaries look like without no 9/11?

I figure Kerry wouldn't get the nomination in 2004,and Dean wouldn't be as popular. Obama wouldn't have been a candidate in 2008, McCain also wouldn't have won the nomination, and in 2016 we wouldn't have as many 'political outsiders' gaining traction.

What is everybody else's thoughts on this?
 
There is no Iraq War, which kills Howard Dean's appeal. I don't think he turned out to be important. If John Kerry is the nominee in 2004, he still picks Obama as the keynote speaker. So he still starts on the road to the 2008 nomination.
 
I was thinking about what would the '04,'08,'12,and '16 Primaries look like without no 9/11?

I figure Kerry wouldn't get the nomination in 2004,and Dean wouldn't be as popular. Obama wouldn't have been a candidate in 2008, McCain also wouldn't have won the nomination, and in 2016 we wouldn't have as many 'political outsiders' gaining traction.

What is everybody else's thoughts on this?

I would think Al Gore or Hillary Clinton would go for it as a correction of the "aberration" of 2000.
 
If Dick Gephardt becomes Speaker of the House after the Democrats retake congress in 2002 TTL, he's in a good position to run. If Bush's term TTL goes bad enough, Gore could launch a rematch so long as he doesn't go into the funk that he went into after the loss in 2000. Kerry would still run, but would have no appeal with no war on terror, I think contrary to what Paul V McNut said, Dean would have appeal without Iraq as he could run on his record as Governor. Also expect Liebermann to run to. 2008, if Bush still got re elected would go to Hillary, Obama's whole rise to national politics was because of Iraq.

For the GOP, 2008 pretty much goes as OTL. As for 2012, I have no idea how it would go.
 
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