President Tsongas

So now what?


Dr. Hoodbhoy,

You've got some work to do before putting him in the White House. Going from memory here:

- You've got to knock Clinton out somehow. Tsongas took New Hampshire, but Clinton somehow wriggled out of the first few of his many scandals, then managed to out spend Tsongas in other primaries and take over the delegate lead. You'll need the press to do the job they pretend they do, investigate Clinton & Company early on, and make something stick. Of you could just have Clinton get caught inside an intern earlier than usual.

- Next you've got to redirect Clinton's money train to Tsongas. Money wins elections in the US. Not votes, not policies, not ideas, just plain old money. Clinton had a nice organization that rounded up huge amounts of cash from incredibly diverse sources like Hollywood and the People's Liberation Army. Clinton's people even managed to raise more soft money for the 1992 general election than the GOP did. Tsongas is going to need to tap into that flow somehow for the next step, but will the Clintonites open the tap for him?

- You've got to beat Bush Senior in the general election next. Perot is going to help you there because his candidacy essentially put Clinton in the White House, but will Tsongas pull as much of the vote as Clinton did? Perot can help you more by not dropping out in July and then re-entering the election later. That will keep his numbers up and he'll take more numbers from Bush than you.

- The final general election hurdle is Tsongas' health. He in remission from lymphatic cancer and that makes things tricky. Will the voters believe that Tsongas won't up and die in office? (And, going by his OTL death date, he'll do just that.) Tsongas can perhaps work this issue to his advantage by selecting a really stellar VP instead of the usual ticket balancing boob. I have no ideas about who that wonderful VP should be however.

Now that Tsongas is in the White House your question can finally be asked, but you can see that just getting him there is rather tricky.

I remember Tsongas being an economic realist. He was very concerned about the deficit and would not make the usual mouth noises regarding tax cuts. IIRC, he said something about not being Santa Claus that was very well received. I doubt he'll screw up immediately like Clinton did, few people remember just how godawful his first year was and how that led to a GOP takeover of both the House and Senate in 1994. The Democrats will most likely keep control of the House with Tsongas in the Oval Office.

NAFTA will occur on schedule, too much bipartisan support for that. Out sourcing will follow next but perhaps not assisted by the tax code as it has been in the OTL. I see welfare reform and a stab at social security reform due to Tsongas' concern over deficits. He might tackle health care in an incremental way, much like the Chaffee plan that Hillary famously browbeat Bill into turning down.

As for foreign policy, your guess is as good as mine. He won't have Clinton's slick glibness so he probably won't be liked as much overseas, but there aren't any real disasters waiting for him during the first half of the 1990s and that's all that he'll be around.

Finally, the real legacy of a Tsongas Administration will be the activation of various clauses in the 25th Amendment. As a private citizen, Tsongas died of cancer before his possible first presidential term would have been up. I believe the strain of the office would have simply incapacitated and killed him faster. Just how much faster is anyone's guess, but he would have been removed from office through the 25th Amendment to die at a later date.

The lasting legacy of a Tsongas Administration then might only be more things with the name "Tsongas" on them.


Bill
 
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As long as there's a realistic chance for him to get into the White House I don't really care how he does it, thus the OP. I'm more interested in his choice of running mate (Douglas Wilder would be interesting, though probably not on the short list) and policies (especially foreign since I'm not an American).
 
As long as there's a realistic chance for him to get into the White House I don't really care how he does it...


Dr. Hoodbhoy,

That makes things easier because Tsongas had no realistic chance of getting into the White House thus making your question moot.

He needed to beat, and in order, Clinton, Clinton's money, Bush Senior, Bush Senior's money, and questions about his cancer. Beating all of those things just isn't going to happen.

I've no idea about who his running mates would be, the process is notoriously unpredictable as the Sarah Palin fiasco should have illustrated to you. I've also no firm ideas regarding his foreign policy. I don't remember him making any substantive statements and a cursory web search doesn't turn anything up either.

I do feel that during the period, the US populace was flirting with isolationism again. From our point of view the USSR had imploded, Saddam was beaten, the Mideast seemed quiet, the Balkans were just a blip on the radar, and it seemed as if there wasn't much to worry about. Yes that's a naive attitude, but it's also a real strand in American thinking and one that can't be ignored.


Bill
 
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