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In 1856, the Democratic Party was faced with a tremendous opportunity... but also tremendous problems. On one hand, the Whig Party, its longtime opponent, had more-or-less collapsed; the Republicans and the Know-Nothings each took over pieces of the old Whig organization. On the other hand, Franklin Pierce had become increasingly unpopular. At the 1856 DNC, there were three candidates: Pierce, the incumbent president; Stephen Douglas, champion of popular sovereignty; and James Buchanan, who hadn't been involved in the Kansas-Nebraska Debates, since he was over in Europe at the time. Buchanan won the nomination, and the Presidency, then proved as inept as Pierce.

But what if Douglas wins the nomination? It's reasonable to assume Breckinridge stays his VP, to appease the South; it's also reasonable he wins the presidential election, given that the Republicans were still feeling themselves out and the Know-Nothings were too weak and too divided to beat Douglas.

Douglas, unlike Buchanan, was a rather stronger politician; what's more, he was a solid Unionist. This would come out when the pro-slavery Lecompton Constitution for Kansas comes to Congress. In OTL, Buchanan endorsed it, but Douglas rejected it. Douglas, as a Senator, rejecting Lecompton helped split the Democratic Party, leading to the Republicans taking over the House of Representatives in 1858 (and to the four-way race in 1860); as a President, if he betrays the South over Kansas (as southerners will think), it's probable that there'd be a new secession crisis.

Douglas would have attempted to nip it in the bud. Like Calhoun did to Jackson, his VP (John Breckinridge) would oppose Douglas. 1858 was not 1828; active efforts to keep the South in the Union might've accelerated any push towards secession.

So, we may have a civil war on our hands as early as spring 1858. What are the implications of this?
1a) A cotton embargo would be more effective in 1858 than in 1861, since the cotton glut hadn't happened yet. On the other hand, the Civil War isn't starting as one administration transitions to the next, but in the middle of Douglas's term. Assuming his cabinet is similar (if not identical) to Buchanan's, Douglas would have Lewis Cass as Secretary of State, so the US Department of State would have more continuity.
1b) To be fair, the Confederates would have some quality diplomatic representatives of their own, perhaps including James Buchanan. Once they get organized - and they may organize faster in this crisis - they may be able to use the 'cotton weapon' to their advantage.
2) This version of the Civil War starts with a Northern Democrat as President, not a Republican. Admittedly, Douglas's administration would likely be hampered by the losses of some key cabinet members, and definitely be hampered by the southern Democrats in Congress going for the South. If the Civil War lasts through 1860, will the Republicans run a ticket against Douglas, or will some sort of unity ticket be arranged?
3) What happens in the aftermath of the Civil War? The Democratic Party would be less tainted with Copperheadism, and it would be harder to 'wave the bloody shirt' against them, since they (at least in the North) backed the Union.

Any other thoughts?
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