President Ronald Reagan (1977-1985), highlights and lowlights

[Mad Bad Rabbit]

How would the Reagan '77 administration deal with the USSR's new SS-20 missiles?
We can't fund Pershing II development yet, and SDI is right out: the economy is
still too busted for any big increases in defense spending.

 

[GeographyDude]

First off, don't panic. The Soviets belated reached nuclear parity in the 1970s. I don't think they were ever ahead of us, even though it was something we worried about, and with them being a closed society, it was hard to tell for sure.

Maybe bring our conventional forces up to par in Europe, instead of it being this asymmetrical situation where we were depending on nukes as a back-up.

 

[GeographyDude]

some things I like about Reagan:

He lowered taxes in '81.

He raised taxes in '82, but not as much. Hey, the guy's flexible.

In '83, he set up a blue ribbon commission for the long-term health of social security.

Whereas he did do a bunch of trash talking and saber-rattling toward the Soviets, he did listen. The Soviets actually feared that a military exercise might be a cover for the real thing. Reagan asked his advisors, are they just huffing and puffing, or are they really scared? And he slightly parred back 'Able Archer' in Nov. '83.

Immigration reform in '86.

etc.

And of course, any of this can be shifted forward.

 

[arrowiv]

Should Reagan handle Rhodesia poorly in 1977-80, I think it would make UK-US relations more difficult as the UK considered Rhodesia to be their own turf and a problem they felt they could manage it alone.

 

[Katholico]

What about the Panama Canal situation?

And the elections in 1984 and nexts?

 

[GeographyDude]

The whole issue of the Panama Canal Treaty was the major reason Reagan gave Ford such a close race. At least it seems that way from what I've read, the major issue, which allowed Reagan to pull even with Ford and almost win.

As far as candidates in '84, maybe Mondale, Hart, Glenn, etc, on the Democratic side and maybe due to butterflies one or two others, plus one or two of the OTL candidates not running. I'm assuming Mondale would have stayed in the Senate.

On the Republican side, maybe Bush, Senator Howard Baker of Tennessee, Dole, and of course whoever Reagan's vice-president is. This side is harder to read.

 

[Katholico]

As far as candidates in '84, maybe Mondale, Hart, Glenn, etc, on the Democratic side and maybe due to butterflies one or two others, plus one or two of the OTL candidates not running. I'm assuming Mondale would have stayed in the Senate.

On the Republican side, maybe Bush, Senator Howard Baker of Tennessee, Dole, and of course whoever Reagan's vice-president is. This side is harder to read.

Bob Dole was the Ford's running mate in OTL. In this scenario with Reagan would be the same or other people should be selected?

Also, who else could join to the Reagan's cabinet? I read ideas about a mix between Ford and OTL Reagan cabinet, but I would to want know names in specific.

Bush could remain as CIA director for a couple of years more, right?

Regards and thanks!

 

[Paul V McNutt]

It would be very difficult for Reagan to win in 1976. Carer can make use of his unpopular views like his opposition to Medicare. He is off the President's party in bad economic times. If he wins it would be incredibly difficult for him to win reelection in 1980. There is still a recession. There is still a hostage crisis.

 

[GeographyDude]

As far as who's in Ronnie Reagan's cabinet,

James Baker was his chief-of-staff his first term and generally did a solid, right down the middle job. In fact, when he became Treasury Secretary the second term and someone else was chief-of-staff, a number of things didn't go as well. So, the question is, if Ronnie becomes president four years earlier, does he know James well enough to ask him to he the main guy?

And in regards dealings with the Soviet Union, I know Reagan's OTL administration had both hardliners and middle-of-the-roaders.

 

[GeographyDude]

arguably it was Reagan's Keynesian economics which finally brought the U.S. economy out of a double-dip recession (sustained recovery started in '83). But I'll freely admit in a modern economy there's at least a dozen significant factors occurring at any one time, plus delayed effects! I mean, almost biologically complex.

Reagan was an indirect Keynesian in that he believed a tax cut was more important than the deficit. And the same with a military build-up.

 

[Indicus]

How do you think things would have been different if Ford had beaten Reagan for the nomination in 1976, or if Jimmy Carter had beaten Reagan in the general election?

He's not gonna win in '80. The man who ended the Recession was Paul Volcker and he was appointed by Jimmy Carter in '79. In the event that he were to somehow win in '76 (which I doubt is gonna happen unless Watergate is never uncovered), he's gonna be hit hard by stagflation and is gonna lose '80 in a landslide.

 

[GeographyDude]

This might be an interesting topic to tension. I mean, we might have a real disagreement and not merely a textbook disagreement.

I don't think it was Volcker raising the interest rates which lead to the recovery from the 1980 and '82 double-dip recession. I think it was the deficit spending of Ronnie Reagan.

 

[dw93]

He's not gonna win in '80. The man who ended the Recession was Paul Volcker and he was appointed by Ronald Reagan. In the event that he were to somehow win in '76 (which I doubt is gonna happen unless Watergate is never uncovered), he's gonna be hit hard by stagflation and is gonna lose '80 in a landslide.

Volcker was appointed by Jimmy Carter in 1979 OTL, what makes you think Reagan would appoint him TTL without someone else doing it first?