Mike Collins
Banned
Come on Xen, stay in the fray! I think you got a decent timeline here. Yeah, Im skeptical about RFK implementing it. But I can be convinced!
And LDoc, you overestimate the legitimacy of the Communist regime in the North. As noted, there were rebellions in the North in the 1950s that were brutally put down. And there was a significant migration to the South. In the 50s, there was a large emigration of Catholic Vietnamese from North to South Vietnam. Both rebellions and migration essentially ended by the early 60s. Not because the Vietnamese had any love or loyalty to the Communists but due to the Communists putting a highly efficient and ruthless police state. Even then, there were the "Chieu Hoi"s. The Viet Cong (and a lesser extent the NVA) had a small but significant desertion rate. Many of these deserters rallied to the RVN and fought the Northerners.
And heres two more points to consider. There was never an influx of rank and file Viets from South to North (elite Communist cadre dont count). Also, Vietnamese (Southerners initially but soon after Northerners too) began leaving Vietnam in droves after the Communists won in 1975. This never happened before in Vietnamese history despite wars, famines and foreign occupation.
Given all this, I just dont see Vietnamese standing by the brutal and illigitimate Hanoi regime if US and RVN forces suddenly showed up in the North in force.
One point however should be noted. North Vietnam and China had a defense pact that called for direct Chinese assistance if invaded by the US. Its possible the Chinese would be too preoccupied to honor the agreement if they are busy fightining the Sovs.
And LDoc, you overestimate the legitimacy of the Communist regime in the North. As noted, there were rebellions in the North in the 1950s that were brutally put down. And there was a significant migration to the South. In the 50s, there was a large emigration of Catholic Vietnamese from North to South Vietnam. Both rebellions and migration essentially ended by the early 60s. Not because the Vietnamese had any love or loyalty to the Communists but due to the Communists putting a highly efficient and ruthless police state. Even then, there were the "Chieu Hoi"s. The Viet Cong (and a lesser extent the NVA) had a small but significant desertion rate. Many of these deserters rallied to the RVN and fought the Northerners.
And heres two more points to consider. There was never an influx of rank and file Viets from South to North (elite Communist cadre dont count). Also, Vietnamese (Southerners initially but soon after Northerners too) began leaving Vietnam in droves after the Communists won in 1975. This never happened before in Vietnamese history despite wars, famines and foreign occupation.
Given all this, I just dont see Vietnamese standing by the brutal and illigitimate Hanoi regime if US and RVN forces suddenly showed up in the North in force.
One point however should be noted. North Vietnam and China had a defense pact that called for direct Chinese assistance if invaded by the US. Its possible the Chinese would be too preoccupied to honor the agreement if they are busy fightining the Sovs.