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Needless to say after the GFC, an Obama victory was inevitable in 2008. However, prior to that things were actully quite close, with McCain leading at one point. With this in mind, I was playing around with this electoral simulator(http://www.270towin.com/) with potential scenarios had the GFC been avoided/delayed... and apparently adding New Mexico, Nevada and Iowa to the 2004 Kerry states results in a 269/269 result in the electoral college.

This of course means that congress decides. The House obviously chooses Obama, but as for the senate-well, Lieberman's a wild card. He could vote for Palin, then Cheney becomes the tie breaker and votes Palin.

Presto, possibly the oddest political combination in American history-aside from the ideological gulf, they represent two "firsts", and are the most inexeperienced people to have ever held their respective slots.

If you wanted to go the blatant and easy route you could postulate that Obama is assasinated soon after his selection by the house, and thus Palin not Obama is inaugarated in Janurary. But even with Obama surviving and Palin remaining a mere VP, I'm sure their are interesting consequences.
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