1976 was his year.
He was diagnosed with Parkinson’s before the 1980 race and was having symptoms as early as 1975, even if it had been a wide open field he would have been dogged by questions—fine as incumbent not so much as challenger.
His 1976 VP would not be a milquetoast choice like Mondale. Askew in Florida, the equally funny Hollings in South Carolina, Exon in Nebraska maybe (he’d be better in a 1980 scenario)—think moderate to conservative preferably with experience as Governor. Big state in the South ideally, important Midwest state second, Great Plains for theming third.
Papers of Morris K. Udall Special Collection at the University of Arizona. This should give you a good idea of what his Presidency would have covered.
Energy and the American Future
c. April 1975
These predictions may not prove to be absolutely accurate, but the general trends are undeniably clear. Tens of thousands of new jobs can be created if we use our wealth and technology creatively. For example, Governor Milton Shapp of Pennsylvania has developed a plan -- recently endorsed by other Eastern Governors -- to rehabilitate the nation's railroads by investing $2 billion to $3 billion annually in restoring roadbeds and new rails and rolling stock. Shapp's studies show that such a program would create over 400,000 new jobs. Other areas where energy efficiency and economic revitalization could go hand in hand are:
Building more subways and modernizing mass transportation in all of our cities;
Providing the machines and incentives to bring to birth new resource recycling industries in all parts of the country;
Giving an impetus to urban housing improvement programs which will make our cities more compact, more efficient, and more livable.
Here’s the opening primary section of my in-progress Mo Udall miniseries if you want a plausible Carter involved primary:
Send in the Clowns
Senator Bayh laughed heartily as he watched the final results stream in from across dozens of gyms and meeting halls, “Half a point? I wasn’t even supposed to be here”.
Senator Henry M. Jackson of Washington, Governor James Carter of Georgia, Senator Birch Bayh of Indiana, Representative Morris K. Udall of Arizona, former Senator Fred Harris of Oklahoma, and Sargent Shriver. That was the Democratic field as the Iowa caucuses approached in December 1975. Senator Walter Mondale of Minnesota had dropped out and Senator Lloyd Bentsen of Texas might as well have, former Governor George Wallace of Alabama was considered unelectable albeit formidable in the South and perhaps elsewhere… but not Iowa. Senator Hubert H. Humphrey hung over the race like a anvil, but he was ill and Ford sticking with Rockefeller meant that either Ford’s ticket would be much stronger or that unpredictable Reagan would be the nominee… Humphrey told the unions he won’t be entering. There were others like Senators McGovern & Church along with Governor Brown who were dreaming of it, but not yet entered.
It was a slew of liberals from populist Harris to stalwart Bayh to somewhat unorthodox Udall, giving carefully undefined moderate Carter and hardline conservative-liberal Scoop Jackson the perceived edge. Mo Udall had been viewed as a frontrunner when he entered but like all the liberals couldn’t seem to quite break out from the pack—facing the need to be neither establishment Muskie nor the McGovern heir boxed him in. Jackson too had been seen as a frontrunner but his baffling decision to stay out of the early contests—and his terrible campaigning—had weakened him as well. Now it was Carter’s turn, surging ahead in Iowa and increasing steadily in New Hampshire. The press covered the dark horse Governor’s ascent and, as January opened the new year, increasingly called Carter the frontrunner.
In the summer and fall of 1975 a debate over Iowa raged inside the Udall campaign. New Hampshire had always been their focus and their operation inside that state was excellent. Iowa however had not received the same early care and attention and as the summer passed so did the required time. With Udall sort of in Iowa Bayh had come in after him, if Udall wrote off Iowa Bayh could be trapped there… or could win and derail everything. Without a choice the Udall campaign drifted in Iowa. Of course the choice has been made for them in the spring of 1975, when they had first decided to skip Iowa.
The no on Iowa would result in Jack Quinn leaving and in Gabusi returning in January [1], but more importantly it solidified Stewart Udall’s position—a single person back in charge of the campaign.
By December Carter led the polls strongly in Iowa, nearly a third of voters supporting him, with Bayh at half that. In New Hampshire Udall’s improved money situation and his own determination to buckle down harder had the campaign humming along, especially as the Bayh organization weakened with the Iowa diversion. Carter’s campaign remained the biggest and best, but felt they had lost a step against Udall’s new theme. Polling in the granite state saw Udall and Carter around twenty to twenty five percent, Bayh usually five points behind. None had broken through—yet.
January 19th, Iowa
Uncommitted 38
Carter 18
Bayh 17
Shriver 8
Harris 7
Udall 6
Jackson 1
As one Carter consultant remarked before passing out at the bar “we spent two years for this”. The New York Daily News went with “The Losers”, splashing a picture of Carter & Bayh looking defeated with a cartoon Uncommitted Iowa figure deliriously happy above them. The Carter campaign did their best to spin it, but their polling collapse and abortion gaffe hurt them badly. Bayh didn’t fare much better, clips and quotes of him saying he’ll be first or out. Udall’s quip, “I endorse President Uncommitted” featured on several news reports.
Everything had gone almost perfectly for Carter. Multiple liberals had entered but neither Humphrey nor Kennedy, and Udall’s Iowa polling had collapsed. He had gone from the unknown Governor of Georgia to being the leading candidate in Iowa, polling at thirty percent. He had built a fantastically dedicated team: in December 1975, after a joint appearance, late at night Udall and Carter both phoned their campaign HQs—Udall’s was closed but Carter’s was open, even if they were drunk. He had spent three long years cultivating relationships with the music industry, perhaps his most important funding source. In short Carter had done almost everything right. Except of course for one thing that mattered in Iowa.
Carter’s flip-flop on abortion in the closing days of the Iowa campaign was hammered by Bayh and Shriver—as Governor he had signed a pro-choice bill but in Iowa had remained slippery on the subject, so when the Bayh campaign digs up the perfect attack ad using the ever-useful Congressional Records Office Carter’s soft support evaporated over the puncturing of his moralism, the most dedicated anti-choice voters decamped to Shriver. Various campaigns’ internal polling saw the collapse but public polling stopped before the hard slide. Carter’s narrow victory was (of course) treated as a defeat since he got two-thirds of his public polled vote before the election. On the other hand even negative press raised his profile, as the campaign assured themselves.
It had almost worked as well for Senator Bayh. Lured into Iowa by Udall’s campaign—a brilliant strategic ploy in retrospect, as many pieces of luck are—Bayh had worked hard and gotten lucky with Carter’s abortion gaffe… but not by enough. Having repeatedly said first or bust on the campaign trail and with no Udall in Iowa he had poured resources in trying to catch up with Carter to the neglect of New Hampshire. (If only Udall too had been in Iowa.) Bayh knew New Hampshire was his last shot and he attempted to turn it into the Carter vs Bayh race to drown out Udall, going hard after Carter.
Udall’s dozen vote victory in the Maine caucuses is of enormous help rolling into another New England state. Sargent Shriver had managed to collect some Carter anti-choice voters but otherwise failed to connect almost everywhere. Fred Harris had mounted a reasonably successful campaign on the cheap but simply couldn’t seem to gain votes despite sounding effective populist themes and gaining a solid number of volunteers. Too the Carter campaign pinned Harris down in his native Oklahoma, forcing him to spend far too much time there or lose his home state. Governor Wallace swept the Mississippi caucuses, as expected.
The Dual in the Granite State
Udall walked into a barbershop one day and introduced himself: "I'm Mo Udall, and I'm running for president."
"I know," came the answer. "We were just laughing about that this morning."
Carter, Udall, and Bayh were the only Democratic candidates who had built a strong New Hampshire organization, their relative success reflected that (Shriver’s success came via peeling off anti-choice voters). Senator Scoop Jackson had foolishly stayed out, indeed he had originally planned his first primary as New York, before Massachusetts moved their date up, and compounded his mistake by making a last minute expensive media buy (in the multiple thousands of gross ratings points range).
February 28th, New Hampshire
Udall 28
Carter 23
Bayh 14
Shriver 11
Jackson 7
Harris 6
Wallace 1
McCormack 1
—
[1] IOTL the Udall campaign never made up their mind, finally making a late play that Quinn pushed for that cost ten days and eighty thousand dollars for 5.99% of the vote. ITTL Stew’s ascent means Quinn is out and Gabusi is back several months early.
These interviews with Gabusi are fascinating, if a little self-serving. Stew’s access to money because of [spoilers] means
he doesn’t have to go speechifying lol
1976 Wisconsin Democratic Primary Election: I was a field organizer for the Mo Udall campaign. The weekend before the primary, Mo's brother, Stew, refused to authorize a mailing for the western part of the state, saying, according to witnesses, "You will not fasten upon my family the chains of bankruptcy!"